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Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
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“the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, which are widely used in climate change impact assessments to explore societal implications of alternative climate change and development trajectories (186-188), are tacitly founded on the assumption that the future will be devoid of economic growth distortions, political instability, and armed conflict.”
From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [186]
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Engström, E., & Kolk, M. (2024) · Vienna Yearbook of Population Research · doi:10.1553/p-n5en-z38a · Cited by 4
“The third approach is based on elaborate forecasts in the literature, specifically on the SSP2 middle-of-the-road scenario (Fricko et al., 2017; IPCC, 2022; Popp et al., 2017; Riahi et al., 2017).”
MethodInfluentialYang, W., Su, X., Lü, L., Yu, B., Chen, X. D., Luo, Z., Chu, W., & Zhang, W. (2024) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su16146188 · Cited by 4
“SSP2–4.5 depicts stable population growth, with efforts to tackle climate change via energy efficiency, cleaner sources, and policies [75,78].”
BackgroundInfluentialHe, Y., Wang, G., Ren, Y., Gao, S., Chu, D., & McKirdy, S. (2024) · Journal of Integrative Agriculture · doi:10.1016/j.jia.2024.08.001 · Cited by 4
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Miao, Z. (2022) · Academic Journal of Business & Management · doi:10.25236/ajbm.2022.041705 · Cited by 4
“Dellink et al. (2017) believed that population, total factor productivity[28], physical capital, employment, and human capital, as well as energy and fossil fuel resources (especially oil and gas), were the main driving forces in the long cycle of economic growth.”
BackgroundO’Mahony, T., Luukkanen, J., Vehmas, J., & Kaivo-oja, J. R. L. (2023) · foresight · doi:10.1108/fs-10-2021-0191 · Cited by 4
Casper, K., Narayan, K., O'Neill, B. C., Waldhoff, S. T., Zhang, Y., & Wejnert-Depue, C. (2023) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acf9b8 · Cited by 3
“Our income distributions for the three SSPs (SSP2—middle of the road, SSP3—high inequality, SSP5—low inequality) are based on three different models of national income growth (IIASA, OECD, PIK).”
MethodInfluentialHughes, I., Hernández, A. M., Glynn, J. D. M., Hynes, W. M., & Gallachóir, B. Ó. (2024) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad6d7f · Cited by 4
“…through reimagined forms of post-growth economics, and ethical governance of technology for public good, dismantling patriarchy and sectarianism, and reducing gender polarities by placing care rather than material wealth at the core of the design of society (Dellink et al 2017, Riahi et al 2017).”
More Trade, More Wealth? Impact of Trade on the Economic Development of African Developing Countries
Dvouletý, O. (2019) · Contributions to economics · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-14370-1_10 · Cited by 4
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Zhang, Y., Wang, Y., Liang, Y., Wang, K., & Zhang, H. (2025) · Sustainable Production and Consumption · doi:10.1016/j.spc.2025.10.005 · Cited by 3
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Kumar, Y., Kumar, S., Kaushik, N., Prakash, V., Garg, K., Nalia, M., & Ghosh, S. (2025) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-13985-7.00026-9 · Cited by 3
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“The model of Dellink et al. (2017) represents the future development of every country through one general equation that allows countries to grow forever, even under constant capital, energy and labour since the ‘long-term total factor productivity (TFP) frontier’ representing technological progress…”
InfluentialDunn, F., Haasnoot, M., Du, H., Karabil, S., Minderhoud, P. S. J., Schippers, V., Scown, M., Triyanti, A., Vu, T., & Middelkoop, H. (2025) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103071 · Cited by 3
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“Country-level GDP and population projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs) [28, 29] are used with carbon intensity ICO2 derived from historical records.”
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“Population growth projections on the country level for 2050 were derived from the SSP2 scenario outlined by the IIASA (Samir and Lutz, 2017).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialOlhoff, A., Romero, J. R., Hans, F., Kuramochi, T., Höhne, N., Peters, G. P., Andrew, R. M., Dafnomilis, I., den Elzen, M. G. J., Chen, H.-H., et al. (2022) · TemaNord · doi:10.6027/temanord2022-530 · Cited by 3
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“…of a growing number of key variables, including global population and educational composition (KC & Lutz, 2017), urbanization (Jiang et al., 2020), urban land development (Gao & O’Neill, 2019, 2020), and economic growth (Crespo Cuaresma, 2017; Dellink et al., 2017; Leimbach et al., 2017).”
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“Each SSP is a projection of gross domestic product based on a series of demographic, economic, and political development variables under global climate change, and each SSP has different constraints and assumptions for the projections (Dellink et al. 2017; O’Neill et al. 2017).”
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“G ROSS domestic product (GDP) serves as a key indicator for assessing economic development levels and identifying regional economic disparities, essential for formulating regional development policies [1], [2], [3].”
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Bolliger, I., Cederberg, G., Dangendorf, S., Depsky, N. J., Huprikar, A., Kopp, R. E., Mitrovica, J. X., Yu, M., Hsiang, S., Huybers, P., et al. (2026) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2024ef005914 · Cited by 2
“…socioeconomic scenarios reflect the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) driving economic growth models from both the Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD, Dellink et al., 2017) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA, Crespo Cuaresma, 2017).”
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“The unemployment rate was also generated on the basis of an assumption for GDP projection in SSP scenarios, converging towards a structural level of 2% at the end of twenty-first century 44 .”
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“Through the use of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) concept, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has significantly influenced our knowledge of future socioeconomic trajectories on all levels 10 .”
Geiger, T., & Frieler, K. (2017) · GFZ Data Services · doi:10.5880/pik.2017.003 · Cited by 2
Reynolds, J. L. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781316676790.013 · Cited by 1
Mikou, M., Vallet, A., & Céline Guivarch, A. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/adcb53 · Cited by 1
“These results align with the projected high economic growth and reductions in inequality described in SSP1 and SSP5, as well as the contrasting trends of lower economic growth and persistent inequality in SSP3 and SSP4 [6, 8, 14].”
InfluentialZhu, H., Fang, H., Ding, Z., Feng, K., & Ding, S. (2025) · Energy Sources Part B Economics Planning and Policy · doi:10.1080/15567249.2025.2542877 · Cited by 1
“During periods of accelerated economic growth, heightened domestic natural gas consumption reduces exportable sur-pluses, thereby diminishing trade potential with importing countries (Dellink et al. 2017; Hong 2010).”
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Climate-Driven Changes in Air Quality: Trends Across Emission and Socioeconomic Pathways
Monteiro, A., Russo, M. A., Coelho, S., Lopes, D., & Carvalho, D. (2025) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su172310857 · Cited by 2
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JMIP 2 part 2: Technology sensitivities in Japan's power sector decarbonization
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“Emissions projections are based on demographic and economic scenarios, for example the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP, Riahi et al 2017).”
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“A variety of groups have created quanti fi ed SSP elements that include demographics 4,5 , economic growth 6 , and urbanization 7 , while SSP extensions exist for a variety of applications, including intrastate con fl ict 8 ,governance 9 ,inequality 10 ,andhealth 11 .”
InfluentialUnderstanding the Evolution of Water Deficit in the North African Region
Mazzoni, A., Heggy, E., & Scabbia, G. (2017) · Advances in Science, Technology & Innovation/Advances in science, technology & innovation · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-70548-4_249 · Cited by 1
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Hildén, M., Jeuken, A., & Zandersen, M. (2018) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-849887-3.00002-2 · Cited by 1
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Fox, C. J. E., Lopez-Alascio, B., Fay, M., Nicolas, C., & Rozenberg, J. (2019) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1363-4_ch2 · Cited by 1
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On the emergence of a predicted climate change signal: When and where it could appear over Pakistan
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United Nations Environment Programme, & Panel, I. R. (2023) · United Nations Environment Programme eBooks · doi:10.59117/20.500.11822/42812 · Cited by 1
“In the West Asia region, most economies such as Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia are fossil fuel-based with the largest parts of their revenues derived from fossil fuel production and exports (Dellink et al. 2017).”
BackgroundNzunda, E. F., & Mayeka, J. G. (2023) · East African Journal of Science Technology and Innovation · doi:10.37425/eajsti.v4i3.709 · Cited by 1
Influence of Turbofan Engine Design Parameters on Aircraft Environmental Impact
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The Sustainability of Operations: Past, Present, Future
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Metadata
- Authors
- Dellink, R., Chateau, J., Lanzi, E., & Magné, B.
- Affiliations
- Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques (FR)
- Corresponding author
- Dellink, Rob
- Venue
- Global Environmental Change
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2017-01
- Volume
- 42
- Pages
- 200-214
- ISSN
- 0959-3780 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W793980422
- Cited by
- 893
- References
- 36
- Citations by year
- 2026: 50 · 2025: 92 · 2024: 121 · 2023: 106 · 2022: 117 · 2021: 129 · 2020: 69 · 2019: 85 · 2018: 56 · 2017: 37
- FWCI
- 93.18
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Global Environmental Change (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
- Keywords
- Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, GDP per capita, convergence, total factor productivity, population growth, physical capital, employment, human capital, fossil fuel resources, energy resources, economic crisis
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