Cited by 894Economic Growth and ProductivityClimate Change Policy and EconomicsEnergy, Environment, Economic Growth

The DOI matches its Crossref record, with a small difference in title or year; 35 of the 36 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Dellink, Rob, Chateau, Jean, Lanzi, Elisa, Magné, Bertrand·2017·Global Environmental Change

DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004

Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004

Cites

35 of 35 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Claims the paper makes

We couldn’t retrieve this paper’s full text, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

A contribution to the theory of economic growth
Solow, R. M. (1956) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.2307/1884513 · Cited by 24,483
A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth
Mankiw, N. G., Römer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.2307/2118477 · Cited by 15,282
Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?
Hall, R. E., & Jones, C. I. (1999) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355399555954 · Cited by 8,336
World Energy Outlook
Thring, M. W. (1977) · Electronics and Power · doi:10.1049/ep.1977.0180 · Cited by 7,338
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., et al. (2010) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08823 · Cited by 6,467
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Gurney, J. (1985) · Journal of Policy Analysis and Management · doi:10.2307/3324639 · Cited by 6,313
Econometric policy evaluation: A critique
Lucas, R. E. (1976) · Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy · doi:10.1016/s0167-2231(76)80003-6 · Cited by 6,110
A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways
O’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K. L., Hallegatte, S., Carter, T. R., Mathur, R., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2014) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2 · Cited by 2,716
Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?
Edwards, S. (1997) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.1111/1468-0297.00293 · Cited by 2,383
Inequality Among World Citizens: 1820–1992
Bourguignon, F., & Morrisson, C. (2002) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/00028280260344443 · Cited by 1,477

Flagged first, then by citations

Show all 36 references

1 of the 36 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Sorted by citations

Items 201–300 of 894

Identifying Sustainability and Knowledge Gaps in Socio-Economic Pathways Vis-à-Vis the Sustainable Development Goals
Zimm, C., Sperling, F., & Busch, S. (2018) · Economies · doi:10.3390/economies6020020 · Cited by 54
“SDG Targets 8.1, 8.2, 8.5 on Economic Growth and Unemployment SSP1 follows a contraction and convergence approach: income levels of less developed countries will increase faster than those of more developed economies (Dellink et al. 2017).”
BackgroundInfluential
Future impacts of environmental factors on achieving the SDG target on child mortality—A synergistic assessment
Lucas, P., Hilderink, H. B. M., Janssen, P. H., Samir, K. C., van Vuuren, D. P., & Niessen, L. W. (2019) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.05.009 · Cited by 52
“Each SSP contains a quantification of future developments in population (KC and Lutz, 2017), urbanisation (Jiang and O’Neill, 2017) and economic development (Dellink et al., 2017), and a descriptive storyline to guide further model parametrisation (O’Neill et al.”
Background
Deep decarbonisation of buildings energy services through demand and supply transformations in a 1.5°C scenario
Levesque, A., Pietzcker, R., Baumstark, L., & Luderer, G. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abdf07 · Cited by 60
“The ‘Baseline’ scenario, on which all others are based, follows the SSP2—Middle of the Road—economic and demographic projections (Dellink et al 2017, KC and Lutz 2017, O’Neill et al 2017), which project a global population of more than 9 billion people in 2050 and a growth in global income per…”
Background
Challenges in the harmonisation of global integrated assessment models: A comprehensive methodology to reduce model response heterogeneity
Giarola, S., Mittal, S., Marc Vielle, B., Perdana, S., Campagnolo, L., Delpiazzo, E., Bui, H., Anger-Kraavi, A., Kolpakov, A. Y., Sognnæs, I., et al. (2021) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146861 · Cited by 55
Global assessment of the distribution and conservation status of a key medicinal plant (Artemisia annua L.): The roles of climate and anthropogenic activities
Wang, D., Shi, C., Khan, A., Kwon, S., Pan, L., Zhu, Y., & Yang, X. (2022) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153378 · Cited by 55
Global and regional health and food security under strict conservation scenarios
Henry, R., Arneth, A., Jung, M., Rabin, S. S., Rounsevell, M., Visconti, P., Warren, F., & Alexander, P. (2022) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-021-00844-x · Cited by 61
Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments
Andrijevic, M., Schleussner, C., Cuaresma, J. C., Lissner, T., Muttarak, R., Riahi, K., Theokritoff, E., Thomas, A., van Maanen, N., & Byers, E. A. (2023) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01725-1 · Cited by 53
Continuous national gross domestic product (GDP) time series for 195 countries: past observations (1850–2005) harmonized with future projections according to the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (2006–2100)
Geiger, T. (2018) · Earth system science data · doi:10.5194/essd-10-847-2018 · Cited by 53
Modelling deep decarbonization of industrial energy consumption under 2-degree target: Comparing China, India and Western Europe
Wang, H., & Chen, W. (2019) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.131 · Cited by 53
Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to support local adaptation planning—A climate service for Flensburg, Germany
Reimann, L., Vollstedt, B., Koerth, J., Tsakiris, M., Beer, M., & Vafeidis, A. T. (2021) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2020.102691 · Cited by 53
Future microplastics in the Black Sea: River exports and reduction options for zero pollution
Strokal, V., Kuiper, E., Bak, M. P., Vriend, P., Wang, M., van Wijnen, J., & Strokal, M. (2022) · Marine Pollution Bulletin · doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.113633 · Cited by 55
Rice availability and stability in Africa under future socio-economic development and climatic change
Vos, K. D., Janssens, C., Jacobs, L., Campforts, B., Boere, E., Kozicka, M., Havlík, P., Folberth, C., Balkovič, J., Maertens, M., et al. (2023) · Nature Food · doi:10.1038/s43016-023-00770-5 · Cited by 51
A dynamic assessment of instrument interaction and timing alternatives in the EU low-carbon policy mix design
Corradini, M., Costantini, V., Markandya, A., Paglialunga, E., & Sforna, G. (2018) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.068 · Cited by 51
“In particular, GDP projections are the simple average values of four sources: the OECD Long Run Economic Outlook, the GTAP Macro projections, the IIASA projections used for the OECD EnvLink model, and the CEPII macroeconomic projections used in the GINFORS model.”
Method
The Effects of Anthropogenic Land Use Changes on Climate in China Driven by Global Socioeconomic and Emission Scenarios
Dong, N., Liu, Z., Luo, M., Fang, C., & Lin, H. (2019) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2018ef000932 · Cited by 57
“SSP5 denotes a scenario where countries put full focus on economic development, regardless of the environmental consequences (Dellink et al., 2017).”
Background
Rural transformation and the future of cereal-based agri-food systems
Kruseman, G., Mottaleb, K. A., Tesfaye, K., Bairagi, S., Robertson, R., Diagne, M., Frija, A., Gbegbelegbe, S., Alene, A. D., & Prager, S. (2020) · Global Food Security · doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100441 · Cited by 51
Burden sharing of climate change mitigation: global and regional challenges under shared socio-economic pathways
Leimbach, M., & Giannousakis, A. (2019) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02469-8 · Cited by 50
“The slightly lower economic growth rates (Dellink et al. 2017) and the contained population growth (cf. KC and Lutz 2017) in SSP1 result in a somewhat lower contribution of GDP losses to the mitigation costs in SSP1, whereas energy system investments demonstrate a higher share in SSP1.”
Background
Future Food Security in Africa Under Climate Change
Beltran-Peña, A. A., & D’Odorico, P. (2022) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2022ef002651 · Cited by 54
Deep decarbonisation pathways of the energy system in times of unprecedented uncertainty in the energy sector
Panos, E., Glynn, J. D. M., Kypreos, S., Lehtilä, A., Yue, X., Gallachóir, B. Ó., Daniels, D., & Dai, H. (2023) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113642 · Cited by 60
“4 GDP projections (Dellink et al., 2017; Leimbach et al., 2017) of the SSP2 scenario, as well as historical data and trends regarding the population and demographics (UNDP, 2019), GDP in purchasing power parity at different regions (Bevir, 2012), and final energy (IEA, 2016).”
Background
Global projections of temperature-attributable mortality due to enteric infections: a modelling study
Chua, P. L., Huber, V., Ng, C. F. S., Seposo, X., Madaniyazi, L., Hales, S., Woodward, A. J., & Hashizume, M. (2021) · The Lancet Planetary Health · doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00152-2 · Cited by 53
Climate module disparities explain inconsistent estimates of the social cost of carbon in integrated assessment models
Wang, T., Teng, F., Deng, X., & Xie, J. (2022) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2022.06.005 · Cited by 49
Likely decline in the number of farms globally by the middle of the century
Mehrabi, Z. (2023) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-023-01110-y · Cited by 50
The 2021 SSP scenarios of the IMAGE 3.2 modelPreprint
van Vuuren, D. P., Stehfest, E., Gernaat, D., de Boer, H. S., Daioglou, V., Doelman, J., Edelenbosch, O. Y., Harmsen, M. J. H. M., van Zeist, W., van den Berg, M., et al. (2021) · doi:10.31223/x5cg92 · Cited by 49
“From 2025, the original growth rates of the SSPs were used [28].”
Method
Uncertainty in China's food self-sufficiency: A dynamic system assessment
Liang, X., Jin, X., Xu, X., Chen, H., Liu, J., Yang, X., Xu, W., Sun, R., Han, B., & Zhou, Y. (2023) · Sustainable Production and Consumption · doi:10.1016/j.spc.2023.06.009 · Cited by 49
A nexus modeling framework for assessing water scarcity solutions
Kahil, T., Albiac, J., Fischer, G., Strokal, M., Tramberend, S., Greve, P., Tang, T., Burek, P., Burtscher, R., & Wada, Y. (2019) · Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2019.09.009 · Cited by 48
Beyond land-use intensity: Assessing future global crop productivity growth under different socioeconomic pathways
Wang, X., Dietrich, J. P., Lotze‐Campen, H., Biewald, A., Stevanović, M., Bodirsky, B. L., Brümmer, B., & Popp, A. (2020) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120208 · Cited by 46
On Growth Projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Buhaug, H., & Vestby, J. (2019) · Global Environmental Politics · doi:10.1162/glep_a_00525 · Cited by 47
How do demand-side policies contribute to the electrification and decarburization of private transportation in China? A CGE-based analysis
Jiang, H.-D., Xue, M., Liang, Q., Masui, T., & Ren, Z.-Y. (2021) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121322 · Cited by 48
Projected increases in emissions of high global warming potential fluorinated gases in China
Guo, L., Yang, Y., Fraser, P. J., Velders, G. J. M., Liu, Z., Cui, D., Quan, J., Cai, Z., Yao, B., Hu, J., et al. (2023) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00859-6 · Cited by 47
Increasing crop production in Russia and Ukraine—regional and global impacts from intensification and recultivation
Депперманн, А., Balkovič, J., Bundle, S.-C., Fulvio, F. D., Havlík, P., Leclère, D., Lesiv, M., Prishchepov, A. V., & Schepaschenko, D. G. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaa4a4 · Cited by 47
“For all these factors, very diverse pathways can be projected (e.g. Dellink et al 2017, Kc and Lutz 2017).”
Background
Assessing Rural Accessibility and Rural Roads Investment Needs Using Open Source Data
Mikou, M., Rozenberg, J., Koks, E., Fox, C., & Quirós, T. P. (2019) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-8746 · Cited by 47
“5 percent of their GDP per year to 2030 RAI if all countries spend 1 percent of their GDP per year to 2030 East Asia & Pacific 52 59 61 Europe & Central Asia 29 37 40 Latin America & Caribbean 34 42 45 Middle East & North Africa 39 49 51 South Asia 43 54 57 Sub-Saharan Africa 29 42 46 Note: GDPs for each country grows…”
Adaptation mitigates the negative effect of temperature shocks on household consumption
Lai, W., Li, S., Liu, Y., & Jia, P. (2022) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-022-01315-9 · Cited by 46
How food secure are the green, rocky and middle roads: food security effects in different world development paths
van Meijl, H., Tabeau, A., Stehfest, E., Doelman, J., & Lucas, P. (2020) · Environmental Research Communications · doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ab7aba · Cited by 48
“Each SSP is described by a quantification of future developments in population (KCand Lutz, 2017), urbanisation and economic development (Dellink et al 2017), and by a descriptive storyline to guidemodel parametrisation (O’Neill et al 2017).”
Method
Estimating Global Impacts to Agriculture from Climate Change Accounting for AdaptationPreprint
Hultgren, A., Carleton, T. A., Delgado, M., Gergel, D. R., Greenstone, M., Houser, T., Hsiang, S., Jina, A., Kopp, R. E., Malevich, S. B., et al. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4222020 · Cited by 46
Bio-energy and CO2 emission reductions: an integrated land-use and energy sector perspective
Bauer, N., Klein, D., Humpenöder, F., Kriegler, E., Luderer, G., Popp, A., & Strefler, J. (2020) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02895-z · Cited by 48
Climate mitigation policies and the potential pathways to conflict: Outlining a research agenda
Gilmore, E., & Buhaug, H. (2021) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.722 · Cited by 47
“Known as the SSPs, these scenarios outline combinations of population, education, and GDP levels through to 2100 (Dellink et al., 2017; O'Neill et al., 2014).”
Background
Inequality of Global Thermal Comfort Conditions Changes in a Warmer World
Zhang, J., You, Q., Ren, G., Ullah, S., Normatov, I. S., & Chen, D. (2023) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2022ef003109 · Cited by 49
“This includes population and GDP projections from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Kc & Lutz, 2017) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Dellink et al., 2017), respectively.”
Method
International risk of food insecurity and mass mortality in a runaway global warming scenario
Richards, C. E., Gauch, H. L., & Allwood, J. M. (2023) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2023.103173 · Cited by 52
Assessing future vulnerability and risk of humanitarian crises using climate change and population projections within the INFORM framework
Marzi, S., Myšiak, J., Essenfelder, A. H., Pal, J. S., Luca, V., Mistry, M., Alfieri, L., Karmen, P., Marin-Ferrer, M., & Vousdoukas, M. I. (2021) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102393 · Cited by 43
Economic and Environmental Benefits from International Cooperation on Climate Policies
Château, J., Jaumotte, F., & Schwerhoff, G. (2022) · Departmental Paper · doi:10.5089/9781616358303.087 · Cited by 43
How Can the Blue Economy Contribute to Inclusive Growth and Ecosystem Resources in Asia? A Comparative Analysis
Geng, B., Wu, D., Zhang, C., Xie, W., Mahmood, M. A., & Ali, Q. (2024) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su16010429 · Cited by 50
Food matters: Dietary shifts increase the feasibility of 1.5°C pathways in line with the Paris Agreement
Humpenöder, F., Popp, A., Merfort, L., Luderer, G., Weindl, I., Bodirsky, B. L., Stevanović, M., Klein, D., Rodrigues, R., Bauer, N., et al. (2024) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adj3832 · Cited by 45
Impact of urbanization on exposure to extreme warming in megacities
Khanh, D. N., VARQUEZ, A. C. G., & Kanda, M. (2023) · Heliyon · doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e15511 · Cited by 42
Green economy transition in Asia Pacific: A holistic assessment of renewable energy production
Lin, Y., Mahmood, M. A., Meng, W., & Ali, Q. (2024) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.140648 · Cited by 49
Demand-side insights for steering human appropriation of net primary productivity within planetary boundaries
Wang, S., Chen, X., Xie, R., Liu, K., Wang, J., Liu, X., Hubacek, K., Wu, C., Feng, K., Yan, Y., et al. (2024) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2024.02.010 · Cited by 46
“As explained in Dellink et al. 33 and KC et al., 34 in SSP1, all countries will experience relatively rapid income growth.”
Background
Spatiotemporal downscaling of global population and income scenarios for the United States
Wear, D. N., & Prestemon, J. P. (2019) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0219242 · Cited by 43
Coping with climate change in agriculture: Evidence from Hamadan-Bahar plain in Iran
Mosavi, S. H., Soltani, S., & Khalilian, S. (2020) · Agricultural Water Management · doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106332 · Cited by 42
Global socio-economic and climate change mitigation scenarios through the lens of structural change
Lefèvre, J., Gallic, T. L., Fragkos, P. F., Mercure, J.-F., Simsek, Y., & Paroussos, L. (2022) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102510 · Cited by 42
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Scaini, C., Tamaro, A., Adilkhan, B., Sarzhanov, S., Ismailov, V., Umaraliev, R., Safarov, M. S., Belikov, V., Karayev, J., & Fagà, E. (2024) · Natural hazards and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024 · Cited by 41
Can We Predict Armed Conflict? How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality
Hegre, H., Nygård, H., & Landsverk, P. (2021) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1093/isq/sqaa094 · Cited by 39
GCAP 2.0: a global 3-D chemical-transport model framework for past, present, and future climate scenarios
Murray, L. T., Leibensperger, E. M., Orbe, C., Mickley, L. J., & Sulprizio, M. P. (2021) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-14-5789-2021 · Cited by 41
GHG emissions, trade balance, and carbon leakage: Insights from modeling thirty-one European decarbonization pathways towards 2050
Clora, F., & Yu, W. (2022) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106240 · Cited by 40
Supply-demand analysis of ecosystem services based on socioeconomic and climate scenarios in North China
Ding, H., & Sun, R. (2023) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.109906 · Cited by 39
Pasture intensification is insufficient to relieve pressure on conservation priority areas in open agricultural markets
Kreidenweis, U., Humpenöder, F., Kehoe, L. J., Kuemmerle, T., Bodirsky, B. L., Lotze‐Campen, H., & Popp, A. (2018) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14272 · Cited by 40
Forecasting future global food demand: A systematic review and meta-analysis of model complexity
Flies, E. J., Brook, B. W., Blomqvist, L., & Buettel, J. C. (2018) · Environment International · doi:10.1016/j.envint.2018.07.019 · Cited by 44
Future Socio-Political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: A Common Framework Based on Shared-Socioeconomic-Pathways (SSPs)
Pinnegar, J. K., Hamon, K. G., Kreiss, C. M., Tabeau, A., Rybicki, S., Papathanasopoulou, E., Engelhard, G. H., Eddy, T. D., & Peck, M. A. (2021) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.568219 · Cited by 39
Non-optimum temperature-related mortality burden in China: Addressing the dual influences of climate change and urban heat islands
Zhu, D., Zhou, Q., Liu, M., & Bi, J. (2021) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146760 · Cited by 40
Do Financial Development and Economic Openness Matter for Economic Progress in an Emerging Country? Seeking a Sustainable Development Path
Hussain, A., Oad, A., Ahmad, M., Irfan, M. F., & Saqib, F. (2021) · Journal of risk and financial management · doi:10.3390/jrfm14060237 · Cited by 42
“Similarly, Dellink et al. (2017) attempted to alleviate this issue by employing various financial stability indicators and concluded that financial stability predicts long-term growth.”
Background
Saving global platinum demand while achieving carbon neutrality in the passenger transport sector: linking material flow analysis with integrated assessment model
Tong, X., Dai, H., Lu, P., Zhang, A., & Ma, T. (2021) · Resources Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.106110 · Cited by 39
A stratified decision-making model for long-term planning: Application in flood risk management in Scotland
Vafadarnikjoo, A., Chalvatzis, K., Botelho, T., & Bamford, D. (2022) · Omega · doi:10.1016/j.omega.2022.102803 · Cited by 40
MaGE 3.1: Long-term macroeconomic projections of the World economy
Fontagné, L., Perego, E. R., & Santoni, G. (2022) · International Economics · doi:10.1016/j.inteco.2022.08.002 · Cited by 38
Uncertainties and sensitivities in the quantification of future tropical cyclone risk
Meiler, S., Ciullo, A., Kropf, C. M., Emanuel, K., & Bresch, D. N. (2023) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00998-w · Cited by 40
Post-growth: A viable path to limiting global warming to 1.5°C
Slameršak, A., Kallis, G., O’Neill, D. W., & Hickel, J. (2023) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2023.11.004 · Cited by 38
(In)Sufficiency of industrial decarbonization to reduce household carbon footprints to 1.5°C-compatible levels
Cap, S., de Koning, A., Tukker, A., & Scherer, L. (2024) · Sustainable Production and Consumption · doi:10.1016/j.spc.2023.12.031 · Cited by 38
Pathways to a Resource-Efficient and Low-Carbon Europe
Distelkamp, M., & Meyer, M. (2017) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.07.014 · Cited by 38
A global North-South division line for portraying urban development
Zhang, Y., Li, X., Wang, S., Yao, Y., Li, Q., Tu, W., Zhao, H., Zhao, H., Feng, K., Sun, L., et al. (2021) · iScience · doi:10.1016/j.isci.2021.102729 · Cited by 38
“This phenomenon to some extent implies that the latter had experienced a huge economic lead before the 1990s and would be in a relatively slow state of economic growth, whereas many countries with low levels of GDP are and would continue to be in the rapid growth of urban development (Dellink et al., 2017; Maddison, 1…”
BackgroundInfluential
Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Forested Watershed That Drains to Lake Erken in Sweden: An Analysis Using SWAT+ and CMIP6 Scenarios
Jiménez-Navarro, I. C., Jimeno‐Sáez, P., López-Ballesteros, A., Pérez‐Sánchez, J., & Senent‐Aparicio, J. (2021) · Forests · doi:10.3390/f12121803 · Cited by 41
“As a result, the challenges posed by climate change are difﬁcult to meet [69].”
Transport infrastructure costs in low-carbon pathways
Broin, E. Ó., & Céline Guivarch, A. (2016) · Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.trd.2016.11.002 · Cited by 38
“For the baseline scenario GDP, population growth, and active population structure were harmonized to SSP2 projections(Dellink et al., 2015; KC and Lutz, 2014).”
Assembling the climate story: use of storyline approaches in climate‐related science
Baulenas, E., Versteeg, G. B., Terrado, M., Mindlin, J., & Bojović, D. (2023) · Global Challenges · doi:10.1002/gch2.202200183 · Cited by 44
Downscaling down under: towards degrowth in integrated assessment models
Kikstra, J., Li, M., Brockway, P. E., Hickel, J., Keyßer, L. T., Malik, A., Rogelj, J., van Ruijven, B. J., & Manfred Lenzen, A. (2024) · Economic Systems Research · doi:10.1080/09535314.2023.2301443 · Cited by 39
“…existing scenarios generated with integrated assessment models (IAMs) which generally follow the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework (Riahi et al., 2017) where GDP grows in all pathways for virtually all regions and points in time during the twenty-first century (Dellink et al., 2017).”
Emission pathways to achieve 2.0°C and 1.5°C climate targets
Su, X., Takahashi, K., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Tanaka, K., Kato, E., Shiogama, H., Masui, T., & Emori, S. (2017) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1002/2016ef000492 · Cited by 42
“The population and GDP were adjusted to agree with the SSP2 assumptions [Dellink et al., 2015; Samir and Lutz, 2014], with aligned capital stock, consumption, and investment.”
Method
Future upstream water consumption and its impact on downstream water availability in the transboundary Indus Basin
Smolenaars, W. J., Dhaubanjar, S., Jamil, M., Lutz, A., Immerzeel, W. W., Ludwig, F., & Biemans, H. (2022) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-26-861-2022 · Cited by 40
Economic Effects of an Ocean Acidification Catastrophe
Colt, S. G., & Knapp, G. (2016) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.p20161105 · Cited by 36
Evolution of multivariate drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in India under climate change
Sahana, V., & Mondal, A. (2023) · Natural hazards and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023 · Cited by 36
SSP economic growth projections: Major changes of key drivers in integrated assessment modelling
Koch, J., & Leimbach, M. (2023) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.107751 · Cited by 36
Planned expansion of transportation infrastructure in Brazil has implications for the pattern of agricultural production and carbon emissions
Wang, Z., Júnior, G. B. M., Liu, J., Lima, C. Z. D., & Hertel, T. W. (2024) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172434 · Cited by 53
U.S. State-level Projections of the Spatial Distribution of Population Consistent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Zoraghein, H., & O’Neill, B. C. (2020) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su12083374 · Cited by 36
“The SSP narratives have been complemented by quantitative projections of several socioeconomic attributes reflecting distinct patterns of national-level population growth and educational composition [22], urbanization level [23] and economic growth [24].”
Method
Implication of imposing fertilizer limitations on energy, agriculture, and land systems
Sinha, E., Calvin, K., Kyle, P. G., Hejazi, M. I., WALDHOFF, S. T., Huang, M., Vishwakarma, S., & Zhang, X. (2022) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114391 · Cited by 36
The complementary role of carbon dioxide removal: A catalyst for advancing the COP28 pledges towards the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement target
Acen, C., Bamisile, O., Cai, D., Ukwuoma, C. C., Obiora, S. C., Huang, Q. Z., Ozsahin, D. U., & Adun, H. H. (2024) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174302 · Cited by 45
Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts
Schultes, A., Piontek, F., Soergel, B., Rogelj, J., Baumstark, L., Kriegler, E., Edenhofer, O., & Luderer, G. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac27ce · Cited by 40
“These results are robust against different socioeconomic baselines: larger challenges for mitigation in the socio-economic baseline, such as in SSP5, require higher carbon prices than baselines with lower challenges to mitigation, such as SSP1, to meet the 2 ◦C limit (figure 4(c)).”
BackgroundInfluential
DSCIM-Coastal v1.1: an open-source modeling platform for global impacts of sea level rise
Depsky, N. J., Bolliger, I. W., Allen, D., Choi, J. H., Delgado, M., Greenstone, M., Hamidi, A., Houser, T., Kopp, R. E., & Hsiang, S. (2023) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-16-4331-2023 · Cited by 34
Impacts of Groundwater Constraints on Saudi Arabia’s Low-Carbon Electricity Supply Strategy
Parkinson, S. C., Djilali, N., Krey, V., Fricko, O., Johnson, N., Khan, Z., Sedraoui, K., & Almasoud, A. H. (2016) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.5b05852 · Cited by 34
Improving material projections in Integrated Assessment Models: The use of a stock-based versus a flow-based approach for the iron and steel industry
Kermeli, K., Edelenbosch, O. Y., Crijns-Graus, W. H. J., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., & Worrell, E. (2021) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2021.122434 · Cited by 34
Application of an integrated catchment-lake model approach for simulating effects of climate change on lake inputs and biogeochemistry
Jiménez-Navarro, I. C., Mesman, J. P., Pierson, D. C., Trolle, D., Nielsen, A., & Senent‐Aparicio, J. (2023) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163946 · Cited by 35
Optimal international technology cooperation for the low-carbon transformation
Schultes, A., Leimbach, M., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R., Baumstark, L., Bauer, N., Kriegler, E., & Edenhofer, O. (2018) · Climate Policy · doi:10.1080/14693062.2017.1409190 · Cited by 33
Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador
Carvajal, P. E., & Li, F. G. N. (2019) · Climate Policy · doi:10.1080/14693062.2019.1617667 · Cited by 36
Food for thought: A meta-analysis of animal food demand elasticities across world regions
Bouyssou, C. G., Jensen, J. D., & Yu, W. (2023) · Food Policy · doi:10.1016/j.foodpol.2023.102581 · Cited by 39
Socially equitable climate risk management of urban heat
Friesenecker, M., Schneider, A. E., Bügelmayer‐Blaschek, M., Getzner, M., Hahn, C., Schneider, M., Seebauer, S., Zawadzki, W., Žuvela‐Aloise, M., & Thaler, T. (2025) · npj Urban Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s42949-025-00202-2 · Cited by 37
“To account for regional variations of the national SSP change rates from the IIASA database two approaches were used.”
Influential
Climate and human development impacts on municipal water demand: A spatially-explicit global modeling framework
Parkinson, S. C., Johnson, N., Rao, N. D., Jones, B., van Vliet, M. T. H., Fricko, O., Djilali, N., Riahi, K., & Flörke, M. (2016) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.002 · Cited by 35
Population and Economic Projections in the Yangtze River Basin Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Min, Z., Zhang, Z., Zhu, B., Kong, R., Zhang, F., Tian, J., & Jiang, T. (2020) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su12104202 · Cited by 31
“Different national security programmes face different challenges, and the links between economic activity and these challenges are complex [16].”
Background
Impacts of supply-side climate change mitigation practices and trade policy regimes under dietary transition: the case of European agriculture
Clora, F., Yu, W., Baudry, G., & Costa, L. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac39bd · Cited by 32
“To project calorie consumption, GDP [57] and population projections [55] are used.”
BackgroundMethodInfluential
Extending shared socio-economic pathways for pesticide use in Europe: Pest-Agri-SSPs
Nagesh, P., Edelenbosch, O. Y., Dekker, S. C., de Boer, H. J., Mitter, H., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2023) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118078 · Cited by 32
Long-Term Development Perspectives of Sub-Saharan Africa under Climate Policies
Leimbach, M., Roming, N., Schultes, A., & Schwerhoff, G. (2017) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.07.033 · Cited by 32
Ex-Ante Evaluation of Sub-National Labor Market Impacts of Trade Reforms
Maliszewska, M., Osorio‐Rodarte, I., & Gupta, R. (2020) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-9478 · Cited by 32
Transboundary rivers of Ukraine: perspectives for sustainable development and clean water
Strokal, V. (2021) · Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences · doi:10.1080/1943815x.2021.1930058 · Cited by 31
The threat of robots to career sustainability, and the pivotal role of knowledge management and human capital
AlQershi, N. A., Saufi, R. A., Yaziz, M. F. A., Permarupan, P. Y., Muhammad, N. M. N., Yusoff, M. N. H., & Ramayah, T. (2023) · Journal of Innovation & Knowledge · doi:10.1016/j.jik.2023.100386 · Cited by 35
Global economic–biophysical assessment of midterm scenarios for agricultural markets—biofuel policies, dietary patterns, cropland expansion, and productivity growth
Delzeit, R., Klepper, G., Zabel, F., & Mauser, W. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa9da2 · Cited by 31
“These multifacetted feedbacks have been studied by developing and analysing scenarios (Popp et al 2017, Dellink et al 2017, Valin et al 2014).”
Background
A dynamic CGE model for jointly accounting ageing population, automation and environmental tax reform. European Union as a case study
Costantini, V., & Sforna, G. (2019) · Economic Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2019.08.004 · Cited by 31
Future emissions of greenhouse gases, particulate matter and volatile organic compounds from municipal solid waste burning in India
Sharma, G., & Sinha, B. (2022) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159708 · Cited by 31
Climate change and energy use efficiency in arid and semiarid agricultural areas: A case study of Hamadan-Bahar plain in Iran
Soltani, S., Mosavi, S. H., Saghaian, S., Azhdari, S., Alamdarlo, H. N., & Khalilian, S. (2023) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2022.126553 · Cited by 30
The Global Land Squeeze: Managing the Growing Competition for Land
Searchinger, T., Peng, L., Zionts, J., & Waite, R. (2023) · doi:10.46830/wrirpt.20.00042 · Cited by 35

Authors: Dellink, R., Chateau, J., Lanzi, E., & Magné, B.
Affiliations: Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques (FR)
Corresponding author: Dellink, Rob
ORCID: Dellink, Rob
Lanzi, Elisa
Venue: Global Environmental Change
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 2017-01
Volume: 42
Pages: 200-214
ISSN: 0959-3780 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004
OpenAlex: W793980422
Cited by: 893
References: 36
Citations by year: 2026: 50 · 2025: 92 · 2024: 121 · 2023: 106 · 2022: 117 · 2021: 129 · 2020: 69 · 2019: 85 · 2018: 56 · 2017: 37
FWCI: 93.18
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations: Global Environmental Change (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
Keywords: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, GDP per capita, convergence, total factor productivity, population growth, physical capital, employment, human capital, fossil fuel resources, energy resources, economic crisis

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Overview

Integrity signals

Verification

Claims the paper makes

Claims other papers make about this one

Citations

Cites

Cited by

Related

Metadata

Record

About these checks