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Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
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“the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, which are widely used in climate change impact assessments to explore societal implications of alternative climate change and development trajectories (186-188), are tacitly founded on the assumption that the future will be devoid of economic growth distortions, political instability, and armed conflict.”
From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [186]
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Items 101–200 of 894
Future greenhouse gas emissions from metal production: gaps and opportunities towards climate goals
Yokoi, R., Watari, T., & Motoshita, M. (2021) · Energy & Environmental Science · doi:10.1039/d1ee02165f · Cited by 115
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Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs
Mitter, H., Techen, A., Sinabell, F., Helming, K., Schmid, E., Bodirsky, B. L., Holman, I. P., Kok, K. I., Lehtonen, H. S., Leip, A., et al. (2020) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102159 · Cited by 114
Small Island Developing States under threat by rising seas even in a 1.5 °C warming world
Vousdoukas, M. I., Athanasiou, P., Giardino, A., Mentaschi, L., Stocchino, A., Kopp, R. E., Menéndez, P., Beck, M. W., Ranasinghe, R., & Feyen, L. (2023) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-023-01230-5 · Cited by 121
“Because assumptions of demographic and economic developments over long time spans are highly uncertain 19 , it is important to single out the effect of climate and area permanently flooded ( f ) (that is, below the high-tide water level) until the year 2150 under all five scenarios (the lines…”
An integrated assessment of INDCs under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: an implementation of C3IAM
Wei, Y., Han, R., Liang, Q., Yu, B., Yao, Y.-F., Xue, M., Zhang, K., Liu, L.-J., Peng, J., Yang, P., et al. (2018) · Natural Hazards · doi:10.1007/s11069-018-3297-9 · Cited by 108
“To implement SSPs with C3IAM, we use the demographic and economic assumptions developed by Dellink et al. (2017) and Kc and Lutz (2017).”
MethodCarvajal, P. E., Li, F. G. N., Soria, R., Cronin, J., Anandarajah, G., & Mulugetta, Y. (2019) · Energy Strategy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.esr.2018.12.008 · Cited by 111
“The SSP2 depicts a world in which social, economic, and technological trends do not shift markedly from historical patterns [25,85].”
BackgroundThiault, L., Mora, C., Cinner, J. E., Cheung, W. W. L., Graham, N. A. J., Januchowski‐Hartley, F. A., Mouillot, D., Sumaila, U. R., & Claudet, J. (2019) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw9976 · Cited by 103
Zhang, C., Dong, H., Geng, Y., Liang, H., & Liu, X. (2022) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114918 · Cited by 110
Yang, Z., Yang, H., & Wang, H. (2020) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2020.102226 · Cited by 104
The sectoral and regional economic consequences of outdoor air pollution to 2060
Lanzi, E., Dellink, R., & Château, J. (2018) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2018.01.014 · Cited by 109
Self-citationScenario analysis for promoting clean cooking in Sub-Saharan Africa: Costs and benefits
Dagnachew, A. G., Hof, A. F., Lucas, P., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2019) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2019.116641 · Cited by 103
“3 billion [42], average GDP per capita to more than USD 3700 [43], and urbanization to nearly 50% [44].”
BackgroundLiddicoat, S., Wiltshire, A., Jones, C. D., Arora, V., Brovkin, V., Cadule, P., Hajima, T., Lawrence, D., Pongratz, J., Schwinger, J., et al. (2021) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0991.1 · Cited by 61
“The SSPs describe five future narratives of economic development (Dellink et al. 2017), population change (Samir and Lutz 2017), and urbanization (Jiang and O’Neill 2017).”
BackgroundClimate change increases resource-constrained international immobility
Benveniste, H., Oppenheimer, M., & Fleurbaey, M. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01401-w · Cited by 115
Future losses of ecosystem services due to coastal erosion in Europe
Paprotny, D., Terefenko, P., Giza, A., Czapliński, P., & Vousdoukas, M. I. (2020) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144310 · Cited by 101
Curbing global solid waste emissions toward net-zero warming futures
Hoy, Z. X., Woon, K. S., Chin, W. C., Fan, Y. V., & Yoo, S. J. (2023) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.adg3177 · Cited by 101
Fossil fuels subsidy removal and the EU carbon neutrality policy
Antimiani, A., Costantini, V., & Paglialunga, E. (2023) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106524 · Cited by 98
Meeting well-below 2°C target would increase energy sector jobs globally
Pai, S., Emmerling, J., Drouet, L., Zerriffi, H., & Jewell, J. (2021) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.005 · Cited by 98
Davenport, F., Grace, K. L., Funk, C. C., & Shukla, S. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.009 · Cited by 103
Yumashev, D., van Hussen, K., Gille, J., & Whiteman, G. (2017) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1980-6 · Cited by 101
“SSP2 largely follows persistent historical trends in social, economic and technological development (Dellink et al. 2017; O’Neill et al. 2017) and provides a reasonable first estimate for the possible state of the future economy.”
BackgroundA global historical data set of tropical cyclone exposure (TCE-DAT)
Geiger, T., Frieler, K., & Bresch, D. N. (2018) · Earth system science data · doi:10.5194/essd-10-185-2018 · Cited by 93
The effect of education on determinants of climate change risks
O’Neill, B. C., Jiang, L., Samir, K. C., Fuchs, R., Pachauri, S., Laidlaw, E. K., Zhang, T., Zhou, W., & Ren, X. (2020) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-020-0512-y · Cited by 93
The cost of mitigation revisited
Köberle, A. C., Vandyck, T., Guivarch, C., Macaluso, N., Bosetti, V., Gambhir, A., Tavoni, M., & Rogelj, J. (2021) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01203-6 · Cited by 106
“At the basis of mitigation cost estimates typically lie annual global consumption (and GDP) growth rates between 1% and 4% throughout the century (e.g. SSP2 projections in Dellink et al 52 ).”
BackgroundIncreased energy use for adaptation significantly impacts mitigation pathways
Colelli, F. P., Emmerling, J., Marangoni, G., Mistry, M., & Cian, E. D. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32471-1 · Cited by 95
Benveniste, H., Boucher, O., Céline Guivarch, A., Treut, H. L., & Patrick Criqui, A. (2017) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaa0b9 · Cited by 91
“Contributions of main countries and groups of countries to 2010 and 2030 global emissions based on full and sole achievement of the NDCs. Absolute (a) and relative (b) contributions of countries and groups of countries to the global emissions in 2010 and 2030, for the five different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)…”
MethodInfluentialMarginal climate and air quality costs of aviation emissions
Grobler, C., Wolfe, P. J., Dasadhikari, K., Dedoussi, I. C., Allroggen, F., Speth, R. L., Eastham, S. D., Agarwal, A., Staples, M. D., Sabnis, J. S., et al. (2019) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4942 · Cited by 105
“Similarly, we expect the VSL to increase by 2.5% per year, assuming an income elasticity of 0.7 and average year on year growth in GDP as in the SSP 1 scenario (Dellink et al 2017).”
BackgroundInfluentialChen, D., Jiang, P., & Li, M. (2021) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112734 · Cited by 89
Halving energy demand from buildings: The impact of low consumption practices
Levesque, A., Pietzcker, R., & Luderer, G. (2019) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2019.04.025 · Cited by 91
Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence‐Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios
Lamontagne, J., Reed, P. M., Link, R. P., Calvin, K., Clarke, L., & Edmonds, J. (2018) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1002/2017ef000701 · Cited by 89
“Furthermore, the Populous Low Productivity Agriculture Scenarios see stalled convergence in per-capita income between developed and developing countries, resulting in an international distribution of wealth in 2100 that is similar to present levels (Dellink et al., 2017).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialAssessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework
Bauer, N., Hilaire, J., Brecha, R. J., Edmonds, J., Jiang, K., Kriegler, E., Rogner, H., & Sferra, F. (2016) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.088 · Cited by 87
Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe
Νίκας, Α., Gambhir, A., Trutnevyte, E., Koasidis, K., Lund, H., Thellufsen, J. Z., Mayer, D., Zachmann, G., Miguel, L. J., Ferreras-Alonso, N., et al. (2020) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2020.119153 · Cited by 95
“on the human [94], urbanisation [95] and economic dimensions [96], without overlooking the associated localisation and downscaling challenges potentially leading to several-fold increases of plausible futures [97].”
BackgroundIPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022?
Pedersen, J. S. T., van Vuuren, D. P., Gupta, J., Santos, F. D., Edmonds, J., & Swart, R. J. (2022) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102538 · Cited by 100
“The most recent emissions scenarios were developed outside the IPCC (Moss et al., 2010), i.e., the “ Representative Concentration Pathways ” (RCPs) (van Vuuren et al., 2011) and the “ Shared Socioeconomic Pathways ” (SSPs) (O ’ Neill et al., 2014; Riahi et al., 2017).”
MethodInfluentialHe, C., Li, J., Zhang, X., Liu, Z., & Zhang, D. (2017) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.07.018 · Cited by 86
Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Rohat, G. (2018) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph15030554 · Cited by 85
“For instance, the global SSPs have been quantified for key socioeconomic variables at the national level with sectoral models such as urbanization models [29], demographic models [27,28], and economic models [31,101].”
BackgroundFishman, T., Heeren, N., Pauliuk, S., Berrill, P., Tu, Q., Wolfram, P., & Hertwich, E. G. (2021) · Journal of Industrial Ecology · doi:10.1111/jiec.13122 · Cited by 85
“Data on future population (Kc & Lutz, 2017) and economic development (Dellink et al., 2017) are from the SSP database.”
BackgroundA Global Analysis of Future Water Deficit Based On Different Allocation Mechanisms
Bijl, D. L., Biemans, H., Bogaart, P. W., Dekker, S. C., Doelman, J., Stehfest, E., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2018) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2017wr021688 · Cited by 84
“(2017) and quantified for population (KC & Lutz, 2017) and income (Dellink et al., 2017).”
BackgroundImpacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea
Pihlainen, S., Zandersen, M., Hyytiäinen, K. P., Andersen, H. E., Bartošová, A., Gustafsson, B. G., Jabloun, M., McCrackin, M. L., Meier, H. E. M., Olesen, J. E., et al. (2020) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138935 · Cited by 84
Zhang, C., Dong, H., Geng, Y., Song, X., Zhang, T., & Zhuang, M. (2022) · Resources Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106528 · Cited by 83
Dagnachew, A. G., Lucas, P., Hof, A. F., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2017) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2017.12.023 · Cited by 84
“In SSP2, the Sub-Saharan Africa population is expected to grow from 860 million in 2010 to over 1.3 billion in 2030, with the economy almost doubling during this period (see Kc and Lutz, 2017, Dellink et al., 2017).”
BackgroundInfluentialBalancing clean water-climate change mitigation trade-offs
Parkinson, S. C., Krey, V., Huppmann, D., Kahil, T., McCollum, D. L., Fricko, O., Byers, E. A., Gidden, M., Mayor, B., Khan, Z., et al. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaf2a3 · Cited by 85
“(2017) [1], and connection rates from Baum et al.”
BackgroundSpalding-Fecher, R., Joyce, B. A., & Winkler, H. (2017) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2016.12.009 · Cited by 83
A physically-based model of long-term food demand
Bijl, D. L., Bogaart, P. W., Dekker, S. C., Stehfest, E., de Vries, B. J. M., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.003 · Cited by 82
“Although O ’ Neill et al. specify fi ve di ff erent SSPs, we focus on SSP-1, 2 and 3 to illustrate the future possibilities ranging from ‘ cooperation for sustainability ’ (SSP-1) to ‘ fragmentation ’ (SSP-3).”
InfluentialThe policy implications of an uncertain carbon dioxide removal potential
Grant, N., Hawkes, A. D., Mittal, S., & Gambhir, A. (2021) · Joule · doi:10.1016/j.joule.2021.09.004 · Cited by 91
Climate change scenarios in fisheries and aquatic conservation research
Burgess, M. G., Becker, S. L., Langendorf, R. E., Fredston, A., & Brooks, C. M. (2023) · ICES Journal of Marine Science · doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsad045 · Cited by 89
Zandersen, M., Hyytiäinen, K., Meier, H. E. M., Tomczak, M. T., Bauer, B., Haapasaari, P., Olesen, J. E., Gustafsson, B. G., Refsgaard, J. C., Fridell, E., et al. (2019) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1453-0 · Cited by 86
Parkinson, S. C., Makowski, M., Krey, V., Sedraoui, K., Almasoud, A. H., & Djilali, N. (2017) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.12.142 · Cited by 78
Reimann, L., Merkens, J.-L., & Vafeidis, A. T. (2017) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1189-2 · Cited by 77
“…which quantifies key elements of the narratives in projections for the five SSPs until 2100 (see KC and Lutz (2017) for population projections, Jiang and O’Neill (2017) for urbanization projections, and Crespo Cuaresma (2017), Dellink et al. (2017), and Leimbach et al. (2017) for GDP projections).”
BackgroundGütschow, J., Jeffery, M. L., Günther, A., & Meinshausen, M. A. (2021) · Earth system science data · doi:10.5194/essd-13-1005-2021 · Cited by 85
Greenhouse gas emission curves for advanced biofuel supply chains
Daioglou, V., Doelman, J., Stehfest, E., Müller, C., Wicke, B., Faaij, A. P. C., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2017) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0006-8 · Cited by 78
“The results assume a median land-use scenario (SSP2) in combination with a 2.6 W m − 2 radiative forcing climate scenario 19,52–55 .”
BackgroundInfluentialThe Governance of Solar Geoengineering
Reynolds, J. L. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781316676790 · Cited by 97
Carleton, T. A., Jina, A., Delgado, M., Greenstone, M., Houser, T., Hsiang, S., Hultgren, A., Kopp, R. E., McCusker, K. E., Nath, I., et al. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27599 · Cited by 83
Shared socio-economic pathways and their implications for global materials use
Schandl, H., Lu, Y., Che, N., Newth, D., West, J., Frank, S., Obersteiner, M. H., Rendall, A., & Hatfield–Dodds, S. (2020) · Resources Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.104866 · Cited by 85
Climate Change and Health under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Framework
Sellers, S., & Ebi, K. L. (2017) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph15010003 · Cited by 84
Robust increase in population exposure to heat stress with increasing global warming
Freychet, N., Hegerl, G. C., Lord, N. S., Lo, Y. T. E., Mitchell, D., & Collins, M. D. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac71b9 · Cited by 75
“These may include better insulation of buildings, air conditioning, better health care, etc. Lower PPP countries also tend to rely more on farming and outdoor labour, thus increasing the potential exposure to climate hazards.”
MethodInfluentialCSR from different perspectives: The global ESG indexes updated
Jiang, P., Feng, G., Wang, H., & Chang, C. (2024) · Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management · doi:10.1002/csr.2814 · Cited by 75
Mazzoni, A., Heggy, E., & Scabbia, G. (2018) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.09.009 · Cited by 75
Siabi, E. K., Awafo, E. A., Kabo-bah, A. T., Derkyi, N. S. A., Akpoti, K., Mortey, E. M., & Yazdanie, M. (2023) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101432 · Cited by 74
A review of inventory modeling methods for missing data in life cycle assessment
Zargar, S., Yao, Y., & Tu, Q. (2022) · Journal of Industrial Ecology · doi:10.1111/jiec.13305 · Cited by 76
Clora, F., Yu, W., & Corong, E. (2023) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113454 · Cited by 75
Exploring future scenarios of ethanol demand in Brazil and their land-use implications
de Andrade, M. A. U., Valin, H., Soterroni, A. C., Ramos, F. M., & Halog, A. (2019) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110958 · Cited by 72
Arnell, N., Lowe, J., Bernie, D., Nicholls, R., Brown, S., Challinor, A., & Osborn, T. (2019) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab35a6 · Cited by 59
“Lett.14 (2019)084046 Dellink et al (2017) and downscaled to the 0.5°×0.5° resolution by assuming that each grid cell in a country has the same GDP per capita.”
BackgroundInfluentialGuidelines for Modeling and Reporting Health Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions
Hess, J. J., Ranadive, N., Boyer, C. J., Aleksandrowicz, L., Anenberg, S. C., Aunan, K., Belesova, K., Bell, M. L., Bickersteth, S., Bowen, K., et al. (2020) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp6745 · Cited by 71
“Relevant quanti fi cations of the SSPs are available (Dellink et al. 2015; Jiang and O ’ Neill 2017; Kc and Lutz 2017; Li et al. 2019; Marangoni et al. 2017; Nepal et al. 2019; Rao et al. 2019), and there is increasing application in the health sector (Markandya et al. 2018; Sellers and Ebi 2017).”
Annex III: Scenarios and Modelling Methods
Change, I. P. O. C. (2023) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009157926.022 · Cited by 106
Potential escalation of heat-related working costs with climate and socioeconomic changes in China
Zhao, Y., Sultan, B., Vautard, R., Braconnot, P., Wang, H. J., & Ducharne, A. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1521828113 · Cited by 68
“It is of great interest to compare the increasing HTS costs to the GDP, because it is also expected to increase in China (26).”
BackgroundPedde, S., Harrison, P. A., Holman, I. P., Powney, G. D., Lofts, S., Schmucki, R., Gramberger, M., & Bullock, J. M. (2020) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143172 · Cited by 67
“In global modelling of the SSPs, GDP growth, population growth, education, physical capital and fossil fuel assets are key driving assumptions for simulating differences in emissions (Dellink et al., 2017).”
BackgroundWood-based textile fibre market as part of the global forest-based bioeconomy
Kallio, M. (2020) · Forest Policy and Economics · doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2020.102364 · Cited by 67
Dvouletý, O., Gordievskaya, A., & Procházka, D. A. (2018) · Journal of global entrepreneurship research · doi:10.1186/s40497-018-0103-9 · Cited by 66
“…or Guisinger et al. 2018), share of economically active population (representing factor based approach to country’s economic development, see e. g. Dellink et al. 2017) and GNI per Capita The World Bank Database (2017) GNI is gross national income converted to international dollars using…”
MethodFood security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals
Hasegawa, T., Sands, R. D., Brunelle, T., Cui, R. Y., Frank, S., Fujimori, S., & Popp, A. (2020) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02838-8 · Cited by 65
“We also assume a higher rate of economic development in the next few decades relative to that in the last two decades, as the SSPs were developed by focusing on long-term differentiation across SSPs (Dellink et al. 2017).”
BackgroundApeaning, R. W. (2021) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125706 · Cited by 64
Environmental and socioeconomic footprints of the German bioeconomy
Bringezu, S., Distelkamp, M., Lutz, C., Wimmer, F., Schaldach, R., Hennenberg, K., Böttcher, H., & Egenolf, V. (2021) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-021-00725-3 · Cited by 52
Daioglou, V., Mikropoulos, E., Gernaat, D., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2022) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2021.122994 · Cited by 61
Chen, H., Qi, S., & Zhang, J. (2022) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119719 · Cited by 63
How the USA can benefit from risk-based premiums combined with flood protection
de Ruig, L. T., Haer, T., de Moel, H., Brody, S. D., Botzen, W. J. W., Czajkowski, J. R., & Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01501-7 · Cited by 63
Yue, H., He, C., Huang, Q., Zhang, D., Shi, P., Moallemi, E. A., Xu, F., Yang, Y., Qi, X., Ma, Q., et al. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-46969-3 · Cited by 67
“Under this framework, studies have projected the corresponding socioeconomic factors and concentration of pollutants 50,67,68 , with stricter air pollution controls tied to higher levels of economic development 66 .”
The role of global dietary transitions for safeguarding biodiversity
Henry, R., Alexander, P. M., Rabin, S. S., Anthoni, P. M., Rounsevell, M., & Arneth, A. (2019) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101956 · Cited by 73
The role of nuclear in China's energy future: Insights from integrated assessment
Yu, S., Yarlagadda, B., Siegel, J., Zhou, S., & Kim, S. H. (2020) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111344 · Cited by 63
Drought impacts on the electricity system, emissions, and air quality in the western United States
Qiu, M., Ratledge, N., Azevedo, I. L., Diffenbaugh, N. S., & Burke, M. (2023) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2300395120 · Cited by 65
Liu, J., Yan, Q., & Zhang, M. (2023) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166204 · Cited by 65
Kaza, S., Shrikanth, S., & Chaudhary, S. (2021) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/35998 · Cited by 61
Doelman, J., Beier, F., Stehfest, E., Bodirsky, B. L., Beusen, A. H. W., Humpenöder, F., Mishra, A., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D. P., de Vos, L., et al. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac5766 · Cited by 62
Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national scenarios in Japan
Chen, H., Matsuhashi, K., Takahashi, K., Fujimori, S., Honjo, K., & Gomi, K. (2020) · Sustainability Science · doi:10.1007/s11625-019-00780-y · Cited by 61
The role of energy storage in the uptake of renewable energy: A model comparison approach
Giarola, S., Molar-Cruz, A., Vaillancourt, K., Bahn, O., Sarmiento, L., Hawkes, A. D., & Brown, M. L. (2021) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112159 · Cited by 63
EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings
Sugiyama, M., Fujimori, S., Wada, K., Oshiro, K., Kato, E., Komiyama, R., Herran, D. S., Matsuo, Y., Shiraki, H., & Ju, Y. (2021) · Sustainability Science · doi:10.1007/s11625-021-00913-2 · Cited by 61
Jing, C., Su, B., Zhai, J., Wang, Y., Lin, Q., Gao, M., Jiang, S., Chen, Z., & Jiang, T. (2022) · Scientific Data · doi:10.1038/s41597-022-01440-0 · Cited by 62
Uncertain Future of American Lithium: A Perspective until 2050
Miatto, A., Wolfram, P., Reck, B. K., & Graedel, T. E. (2021) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.1c03562 · Cited by 60
Alternative futures for global biological invasions
Roura‐Pascual, N., Leung, B., Rabitsch, W., Rutting, L., Vervoort, J., Bacher, S., Dullinger, S., Erb, K., Jeschke, J. M., Katsanevakis, S., et al. (2021) · Sustainability Science · doi:10.1007/s11625-021-00963-6 · Cited by 67
“The assessment of SSPs narratives based on the variables of interest considered in the scoring rubric was based on the scenario descriptions provided in several publications (Calvin et al. 2017; Dellink et al. 2017; Fujimori et al. 2017; Jiang and O’Neill 2017; Kriegler et al. 2017; O’Neill et al. 2017, 2016; Riahi et…”
MethodGlobal consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators
Krause, A., Pugh, T. A. M., Bayer, A. D., Doelman, J., Humpenöder, F., Anthoni, P. M., Olin, S., Bodirsky, B. L., Popp, A., Stehfest, E., et al. (2017) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-14-4829-2017 · Cited by 63
“Population and income growth (in SSP2 population peaks in 2070 at 9.4 billion people, and per capita GDP continues to increase until 2100; Dellink et al., 2017; Samir and Lutz, 2017) are projected to be accompanied by an increased need of total calories and shifts in diets (Popp et al., 2017).”
BackgroundInfluentialGlobal change scenarios in coastal river deltas and their sustainable development implications
Scown, M., Dunn, F., Dekker, S. C., van Vuuren, D. P., Karabil, S., Sutanudjaja, E. H., Santos, M. J., Minderhoud, P. S. J., Garmestani, A. S., & Middelkoop, H. (2023) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102736 · Cited by 58
“Aggregate GDP is calculated for each country from the OECD GDP projections (Dellink et al., 2017) and GDP per capita is calculated from this using the IIASA population projections (Samir and Lutz, 2017), all of which are available in the SSP Public Database Version 2.0.”
MethodInfluentialGlobal energy system transformations in mitigation scenarios considering climate uncertainties
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Increased risk of extreme heat to European roads and railways with global warming
Mulholland, E., & Feyen, L. (2021) · Climate Risk Management · doi:10.1016/j.crm.2021.100365 · Cited by 57
Overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement
Humpenöder, F., Popp, A., Schleussner, C., Orlov, A., Windisch, M. G., Menke, I., Pongratz, J., Havermann, F., Thiery, W., Luo, F., et al. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-35114-7 · Cited by 58
The distribution of food security impacts of biofuels, a Ghana case study
Brinkman, M. L. J., Levin-Koopman, J., Wicke, B., Shutes, L., Kuiper, M., Faaij, A. P. C., & van der Hilst, F. (2020) · Biomass and Bioenergy · doi:10.1016/j.biombioe.2020.105695 · Cited by 57
Köberle, A. C., Rochedo, P., Lucena, A. F. P., Szklo, A. S., & Schaeffer, R. (2020) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02856-6 · Cited by 58
Grant, N., Gambhir, A., Mittal, S., Greig, C. R., & Köberle, A. C. (2022) · International journal of greenhouse gas control · doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2022.103766 · Cited by 56
Methods for including income distribution in global CGE models for long-term climate change research
van Ruijven, B. J., O’Neill, B. C., & Château, J. (2015) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2015.08.017 · Cited by 56
Dai, H., Zhang, H.-B., & Wang, W. (2017) · Advances in Climate Change Research · doi:10.1016/j.accre.2017.09.003 · Cited by 57
Structural change in the Chinese economy and changing trade relations with the world
Bekkers, E., Koopman, R., & Rêgo, C. L. (2020) · China Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101573 · Cited by 55
A pathway of global food supply adaptation in a world with increasingly constrained groundwater
Turner, S. W. D., Hejazi, M. I., Calvin, K., Kyle, P. G., & Kim, S. H. (2019) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.070 · Cited by 55
Brinkerink, M., Zakeri, B., Huppmann, D., Glynn, J. D. M., Gallachóir, B. Ó., & Deane, P. (2022) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105336 · Cited by 54
Economic impacts and risks of climate change under failure and success of the Paris Agreement
Estrada, F., & Botzen, W. J. W. (2021) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/nyas.14652 · Cited by 55
Han, X., Hua, E., Engel, B. A., Guan, J., Yin, J., Wu, N., Sun, S., & Wang, Y. (2022) · Agricultural Water Management · doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107693 · Cited by 60
Metadata
- Authors
- Dellink, R., Chateau, J., Lanzi, E., & Magné, B.
- Affiliations
- Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques (FR)
- Corresponding author
- Dellink, Rob
- Venue
- Global Environmental Change
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2017-01
- Volume
- 42
- Pages
- 200-214
- ISSN
- 0959-3780 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W793980422
- Cited by
- 893
- References
- 36
- Citations by year
- 2026: 50 · 2025: 92 · 2024: 121 · 2023: 106 · 2022: 117 · 2021: 129 · 2020: 69 · 2019: 85 · 2018: 56 · 2017: 37
- FWCI
- 93.18
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Global Environmental Change (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
- Keywords
- Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, GDP per capita, convergence, total factor productivity, population growth, physical capital, employment, human capital, fossil fuel resources, energy resources, economic crisis
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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