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Cited by 50Climate Change, Adaptation, MigrationTransboundary Water Resource ManagementEnvironmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones

Large weather and conflict effects on internal displacement in Somalia with little evidence of feedback onto conflict

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Thalheimer, Lisa, Schwarz, Moritz P., Pretis, Felix·2023·Global Environmental Change
DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102641
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Abstract

Extreme weather and conflict may drive forced displacement. However, their individual contribution to displacement is not fully understood due to challenges around isolating individual channels of causality. Here, we use novel disaggregated data on internal displacement in all of Somalia’s subregions from 2016 to 2018 broken down by reported reason of displacement and combine it with weather and conflict data. This allows us to isolate the effects of extreme weather and conflict on forced displacement, as well as the effects of displacement on conflict itself. We find large non-linear effects of weather on displacement where an increase in temperature anomalies from 1 °C to 2 °C (to approx. 1.5 standard deviations, SD) leads to a tenfold increase in displaced people, and a reduction in precipitation from 50 mm to 0 mm (approx. 1.5SD) leads to around a fourfold increase in displacement. We find significant effects of conflict events on displacement (which are masked when the data is aggregated) with a 1.5 standard deviation increase in conflict events increasing displacement 50-fold. We further show that displacement itself has little detectable effect on the occurrence of conflict events.

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  • Rising temperatures are often linked to increased migration due to heat stress and adverse effects on agricultural productivity.

    “This finding diverges from global patterns, where rising temperatures are often linked to increased migration due to heat stress and its adverse effects on agricultural productivity (Thalheimer et al., 2023).”

    From Climate change and migration dynamics in Somalia: a time series analysis of environmental displacement (2025) · cites this paper as Thalheimer et al., 2023

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Authors
Thalheimer, L., Schwarz, M. P., & Pretis, F.
Affiliations
  • Princeton University (US)
  • University of Oxford (GB)
  • University of Victoria (CA)
Corresponding author
Thalheimer, Lisa
ORCID
Venue
Global Environmental Change
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2023-03
Volume
79
Pages
102641
ISSN
0959-3780 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102641
OpenAlex
W4321014268
Cited by
50
References
39
Citations by year
2026: 8 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 6
FWCI
21.58
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Global Environmental Change (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
  • UVic’s Research and Learning Repository (University of Victoria) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Transboundary Water Resource Management
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones
Keywords
internal displacement, forced displacement, extreme weather events, climate change, conflict, temperature anomalies, precipitation decrease, Somalia, nonlinear effects

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