Modelling the long-run learning impact of the Covid-19 learning shock: Actions to (more than) mitigate loss
Open accessAbstract
This paper uses a calibrated "pedagogical production function" model to estimate the potential long-term losses to children's learning from the temporary shock of Covid-19 related school closures. It then models possible gains from two mitigation strategies. Without mitigation, children could lose more than a full year's worth of learning from a three-month school closure because they will be behind the curriculum when they re-enter school and will fall further behind as time goes on. Remediation when children return to school reduces the long-term learning loss by half, but still leaves children more than half a year behind where they would have been with no shock. Remediation combined with long-term reorientation of curriculum to align with children's learning levels fully mitigates the long-term learning loss due to the shock and surpasses the learning in the counterfactual of no shock by more than a full year's worth of learning. Systems need to begin planning now for remediation programmes, and as they do so they should build programmes and train teachers in ways that can continue to produce benefits beyond the period immediately following reopening.
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Dynamic models of learning stress how small losses can accumulate into large disadvantages with time.
“Dynamic models of learning stress how small losses can accumulate into large disadvantages with time (56 –58).”
From Learning loss due to school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic (2021) · cites this paper as [57]
Kaffenberger (2021) projected that short-term and long-term efforts can reduce/remediate learning loss.
“Kaffenberger (2021) projected that short-term (e.g., covering previous year's curriculum before revering to the pre-pandemic curriculum) and long-term efforts (e.g., identifying students' needs using formative assessments, adapting teacher instruction to students' levels and needs) can reduce/remediate the learning loss.”
From Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Student Learning and Opportunity Gaps Across the 2020–2021 School Year: A National Survey of Teachers (2022) · cites this paper as Kaffenberger (2021)
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- Authors
- Kaffenberger, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Kaffenberger, Michelle
- Venue
- International Journal of Educational Development
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2021-03
- Volume
- 81
- Pages
- 102326
- ISSN
- 0738-0593 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7923185
- OpenAlex
- W3033130336
- Cited by
- 308
- References
- 15
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 44 · 2023: 76 · 2022: 98 · 2021: 46 · 2020: 4
- FWCI
- 85.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- International Journal of Educational Development (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
- Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australian Government
- Department for International Development, UK Government
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › Education during COVID-19 pandemic
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Poverty, Education, and Child Welfare
- Keywords
- COVID-19 school closures, learning loss, curriculum reorientation, long-term learning outcomes, teacher professional development, education policy, learning recovery
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