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Prediction of conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease dementia based upon biomarkers and neuropsychological test performance

Open access
Ewers, Michael, Walsh, Cathal, Trojanowski, John Q., Shaw, Leslie M., Petersen, Ronald C., Jack, Clifford R., Feldman, Howard H., Bokde, Arun L.W., Alexander, Gene E., Scheltens, Philip, Vellas, Bruno, Dubois, Bruno, Weiner, Michael, Hampel, Harald·2012·Neurobiology of Aging
DOI 10.1016/j.neurobiolaging.2010.10.019
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Abstract

The current study tested the accuracy of primary MRI and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker candidates and neuropsychological tests for predicting the conversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia. In a cross-validation paradigm, predictor models were estimated in the training set of AD (N = 81) and elderly control subjects (N = 101). A combination of CSF t-tau/Aβ1-4 ratio and MRI biomarkers or neuropsychological tests (free recall and trail making test B (TMT-B)) showed the best statistical fit in the AD vs. HC comparison, reaching a classification accuracy of up to 64% when applied to the prediction of MCI conversion (3.3-year observation interval, mean = 2.3 years). However, several single-predictor models showed a predictive accuracy of MCI conversion comparable to that of any multipredictor model. The best single predictors were right entorhinal cortex (prediction accuracy = 68.5% (95% CI (59.5, 77.4))) and TMT-B test (prediction accuracy 64.6% (95% CI (55.5, 73.4%))). In conclusion, short-term conversion to AD is predicted by single marker models to a comparable degree as by multimarker models in amnestic MCI subjects.

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Research works printed but not linked: 34

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Metadata

Authors
Ewers, M., Walsh, C., Trojanowski, J. Q., Shaw, L. M., Petersen, R. C., Jack, C. R., Feldman, H. H., Bokde, A. L. W., Alexander, G. E., Scheltens, P., Vellas, B., Dubois, B., Weiner, M., & Hampel, H.
Venue
Neurobiology of Aging
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2012-07
Volume
33
Issue
7
Pages
1203-1214.e2
ISSN
0197-4580 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.neurobiolaging.2010.10.019
OpenAlex
W1970684162
Cited by
394
References
13
FWCI
16.35
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
green
Licence
www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Funders
  • Science Foundation Ireland (SFI) investigator program award (08/IN.1/B1846)
  • National Institute on Aging (AG19610, AG024904, AG025526, AG11378)
  • NIH Foundation
  • Evelyn F. McKnight Brain Institute of the University of Arizona
  • state of Arizona and Arizona Department of Health Services
  • Alexander Family Alzheimer's Research Professorship, Mayo Clinic
  • Pfizer
  • Eisai
  • Janssen
  • Novartis
  • Lilly
  • AstraZeneca
  • Sanofi
  • NIH
  • CIHR
  • Alzheimer Society of Canada
  • Michael Smith Health Research Foundation
  • NIA (UO1 AG-024904)

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