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Cited by 496

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 9 of the 9 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Household secondary attack rate of COVID-19 and associated determinants in Guangzhou, China: a retrospective cohort study

Open access
Jing, Qin-Long, Liu, Ming-Jin, Zhang, Zhou-Bin, Fang, Li-Qun, Yuan, Jun, Zhang, An-Ran, Dean, Natalie E, Luo, Lei, Ma, Meng-Meng, Longini, Ira, Kenah, Eben, Lu, Ying, Ma, Yu, Jalali, Neda, Yang, Zhi-Cong, Yang, Yang·2020·The Lancet Infectious Diseases
DOI 10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30471-0

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Abstract

Summary Background As of May 8, 2020, the global reported number of COVID-19 cases has crossed over 3.8 million with nearly 270,000 deaths. The household transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, the causative pathogen, remains elusive. Methods Based on a comprehensive contact-tracing dataset from Guangzhou, we estimated the secondary attack rate (SAR) in households using a statistical transmission model. We assessed demographic determinants of transmissibility and the infectivity of COVID-19 cases during their incubation period. Findings A total of 195 unrelated close contact groups with 215 primary cases, 134 secondary or tertiary cases and 1964 uninfected close contacts were traced as of Feb. 18, 2020. By identifying households from these groups, we estimated the household SAR to be 12·4% (95% CI 9·8–15·4%) if household contacts are defined as close relatives and 17·1% (95% CI 13·3–21·8%) if household contacts are defined as those living at the same residential address, assuming a mean incubation period of 5 days and a maximum infectious period of 13 days. Compared to the elderly (≥60 years old), the risk of household infection was lower among children (<20 years old, odds ratio [OR]=0·23, 95% CI 0·11–0·46) and among younger adults (20–59 years old, OR=0·64, 95% CI 0·43–0·97). Our results suggest greater infectivity during the incubation period than during the symptomatic period, though the difference was not statistically significant (OR=0·61, 95% CI 0·27–1·38). On average, a COVID-19 case infected 0·5 (95% CI 0·41–0·62) close contacts in Guangzhou. Had case isolation not been implemented, this number could have increased to 0·6–0.76. Interpretation SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible in households than SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. The elderly ≥60 years old are the most vulnerable to household transmission. In addition to case finding and isolation, timely tracing and quarantine of close contacts should be implemented to prevent onward transmission during their incubation periods.

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Cites

Show all 9 references

Research works printed but not linked: 20

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Metadata

Authors
Jing, Q.-L., Liu, M.-J., Zhang, Z.-B., Fang, L.-Q., Yuan, J., Zhang, A.-R., Dean, N. E., Luo, L., Ma, M.-M., Longini, I., Kenah, E., Lu, Y., Ma, Y., Jalali, N., Yang, Z.-C., & Yang, Y.
Venue
The Lancet Infectious Diseases
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2020-10
Volume
20
Issue
10
Pages
1141-1150
ISSN
1473-3099 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30471-0
OpenAlex
W3036626989
Cited by
496
References
9
FWCI
17.46
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
bronze
Licence
Funders
  • Science and Technology Planning Project of Fuzhou
  • Project for Key Medicine Discipline Construction of Guangzhou Municipality (2017–2019–04)
  • National Institutes of Health (R01 AI116770, R01 AI139761, R37 AI32042)
  • Guangzhou Municipal Science and Technology Project (201804010121)
  • National Key Research and Development Program of China (2019YFC1200604)
  • Shanghai Key Discipline Construction Project

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Household secondary attack rate of COVID-19 and associated determinants in Guangzhou, China: a retrospective cohort study. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30471-0
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Jing, Q.-L., Liu, M.-J., Zhang, Z.-B., Fang, L.-Q., Yuan, J., Zhang, A.-R., Dean, N. E., Luo, L., Ma, M.-M., Longini, I., Kenah, E., Lu, Y., Ma, Y., Jalali, N., Yang, Z.-C., & Yang, Y. (2020). Household secondary attack rate of COVID-19 and associated determinants in Guangzhou, China: a retrospective cohort study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30471-0

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