An Empirical Evaluation of Explanations for State Repression

HILL, DANIEL W.; JONES, ZACHARY M.

doi:10.1017/s0003055414000306

Cited by 450Political Conflict and GovernanceMemory, violence, and historyCorruption and Economic Development

An Empirical Evaluation of Explanations for State Repression

HILL, DANIEL W., JONES, ZACHARY M.·2014·American Political Science Review

DOI 10.1017/s0003055414000306

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Abstract

The empirical literature that examines cross-national patterns of state repression seeks to discover a set of political, economic, and social conditions that are consistently associated with government violations of human rights. Null hypothesis significance testing is the most common way of examining the relationship between repression and concepts of interest, but we argue that it is inadequate for this goal, and has produced potentially misleading results. To remedy this deficiency in the literature we use cross-validation and random forests to determine the predictive power of measures of concepts the literature identifies as important causes of repression. We find that few of these measures are able to substantially improve the predictive power of statistical models of repression. Further, the most studied concept in the literature, democratic political institutions, predicts certain kinds of repression much more accurately than others. We argue that this is due to conceptual and operational overlap between democracy and certain kinds of state repression. Finally, we argue that the impressive performance of certain features of domestic legal systems, as well as some economic and demographic factors, justifies a stronger focus on these concepts in future studies of repression.

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Lower levels of income and population density can shape patterns of resistance and therefore the level of domestic repression at home.
“Studies have shown that factors like lower levels of income and population density can shape patterns of resistance and therefore the level of domestic repression at home (Hill and Jones 2014).”
From The Long Arm and the Iron Fist: Authoritarian Crackdowns and Transnational Repression (2024) · cites this paper as Hill and Jones 2014
Prior research has found that the openness of legal institutions helps to predict traditional repression.
“Prior research has found that the openness of legal institutions helps to predict traditional repression (179).”
From Physical and virtual repertoires of contention (2022) · cites this paper as [179]

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“Studies have shown that factors like lower levels of income and population density can shape patterns of resistance and therefore the level of domestic repression at home (Hill and Jones 2014).”
Background
Nationwide shutdowns and government offensives
Gohdes, A. R. (2024) · Repression in the Digital Age · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197743577.003.0005

Authors: HILL, D. W., & JONES, Z. M.
Affiliations: University of Georgia (US)
Pennsylvania State University (US)
Corresponding author: HILL, DANIEL W.
JONES, ZACHARY M.
ORCID: HILL, DANIEL W.
JONES, ZACHARY M.
Venue: American Political Science Review
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Published: 2014-08
Volume: 108
Issue: 3
Pages: 661-687
ISSN: 0003-0554 (ISSN-L)
1537-5943
DOI: 10.1017/s0003055414000306
OpenAlex: W2128433189
Cited by: 450
References: 159
Citations by year: 2026: 9 · 2025: 35 · 2024: 54 · 2023: 49 · 2022: 41 · 2021: 47 · 2020: 67 · 2019: 31 · 2018: 50 · 2017: 21 · 2016: 21 · 2015: 18 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 1
FWCI: 71.37
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.cambridge.org/core/terms (unspecified, 21 d)
Locations: American Political Science Review (publishedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Memory, violence, and history
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Corruption and Economic Development
Keywords: state repression, human rights violations, null hypothesis significance testing, cross-validation, random forest, predictive power, conceptual overlap, national legal systems, cross-country analysis

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An Empirical Evaluation of Explanations for State Repression

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