Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects
Open accessAbstract
Urbanisation is estimated to result in 6 billion urban dwellers by 2050. Cities will be exposed to climate change from greenhouse gas induced radiative forcing, and localised effects from urbanisation such as the urban heat island. An urban land‐surface model has been included in the HadAM3 Global Climate Model. It shows that regions of high population growth coincide with regions of high urban heat island potential, most notably in the Middle East, the Indian sub‐continent, and East Africa. Climate change has the capacity to modify the climatic potential for urban heat islands, with increases of 30% in some locations, but a global average reduction of 6%. Warming and extreme heat events due to urbanisation and increased energy consumption are simulated to be as large as the impact of doubled CO 2 in some regions, and climate change increases the disparity in extreme hot nights between rural and urban areas.
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During summer months, relatively large SUHI intensity is associated with increased local warming and extreme heat events in urban areas.
“During summer months, relatively large SUHI intensity is associated with increased local warming and extreme heat events in urban areas13,36,37.”
From Disproportionate exposure to urban heat island intensity across major US cities (2021) · cites this paper as [36]
The Method section defines this paper’s urban heat island as a near-surface air-temperature difference, not a surface urban heat island (SUHI). Section 4 reports greater increases in extreme hot nights in cities than in neighboring rural areas, supporting the urban-warming and extreme-heat portion of the claim. Its analysis does not establish the stated association specifically during summer months or for SUHI intensity. (LLM, conf=0.88)
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“At the same time, the effects of global warming and climate change are expected to be exaggerated in cities, particularly with respect to extreme heat wave events (McCarthy et al., 2010; Ortiz et al., 2019).”
BackgroundEffects of Urban Surfaces and White Roofs on Global and Regional Climate
Jacobson, M. Z., & Hoeve, J. E. T. (2011) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00032.1 · Cited by 180 · see citing works
“Recently, McCarthy et al. (2010) examined the global climate response of the addition of waste heat to urban areas but did not quantify the urban heat island effect due to such areas by removing urban land uses or examining climate responses outside of urban areas.”
BackgroundAlavipanah, S., Wegmann, M., Qureshi, S., Weng, Q., & Koellner, T. (2015) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su7044689 · Cited by 179 · see citing works
“The problem for sustainable development of cities is certainly how to adapt them to more frequent heat waves, which are potentially expected due to climate change [36].”
BackgroundAvoided Heat-Related Mortality through Climate Adaptation Strategies in Three US Cities
Stone, B., Vargo, J., Liu, P., Habeeb, D., DeLucia, A. J., Trail, M. A., Hu, Y., & Russell, A. G. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0100852 · Cited by 178 · see citing works
“The combined effects of urban heat island formation and the global greenhouse effect are projected to significantly increase the number of extreme heat events in urbanized regions [8].”
BackgroundKusaka, H., Masayuki, H. A. R. A., & Takane, Y. (2012) · Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Ser II · doi:10.2151/jmsj.2012-b04 · Cited by 177 · see citing works
“Second, McCarthy et al. (2010) and Olsen et al. (2010) assessed the annual mean changes, whereas the current study focused on summer months.”
BackgroundInfluentialHassan, M. M., & Nazem, M. N. I. (2015) · Environment Development and Sustainability · doi:10.1007/s10668-015-9672-8 · Cited by 168 · see citing works
“Numerous studies have shown that urbanization, resulting in land cover change, has an enormous impact on the radiative, thermodynamic, and hydrological processes that can lead to a change in the local climate (McCarthy et al. 2010), in terms of, for example, temperature, precipitation, and cloudiness (Kaufmann et al.”
BackgroundDominant control of agriculture and irrigation on urban heat island in India
Kumar, R., Mishra, V. K., Buzan, J., Kumar, R., Shindell, D. T., & Huber, M. S. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-14213-2 · Cited by 167 · see citing works
“We analysed the LST data for the three regions: (1) high built-up area of the city or urban core, (2) low built up area inside the city boundary (urban area), and (3) a non-urban area that was at a distance away from the urban-core boundaries or rural belt (Table S1).”
MethodFuture cities and environmental sustainability
Riffat, S., Powell, R., & Aydın, D. (2016) · Future Cities and Environment · doi:10.1186/s40984-016-0014-2 · Cited by 165 · see citing works
“Abbreviations BedZED: Beddington zero energy development; EPBD: energy performance of buildings directive; ETT: evacuated tube transport; EU: European Union; GWP: global warming potential; IPCC: intergovernmental panel on climate change; PV: Photovoltaic; UA: urban area; UHI: urban heat island; UHIE: urban heat island…”
BackgroundInfluentialLindberg, F., & Grimmond, S. (2011) · Urban Ecosystems · doi:10.1007/s11252-011-0184-5 · Cited by 163 · see citing works
“It is also suggested that climate change could magnify the urban heat island effect in some locations (McCarthy et al. 2010).”
BackgroundRoy, S., Pandit, S., Eva, E., Bagmar, M. S. H., Papia, M., Banik, L., Dube, T. J., Rahman, F., & Razi, M. A. (2020) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100593 · Cited by 163 · see citing works
Wang, R., Cai, M., Ren, C., Bechtel, B., Xu, Y. P., & Ng, E. (2019) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2019.100455 · Cited by 161 · see citing works
van Ruijven, B. J., Levy, M. A., Agrawal, A., Biermann, F., Birkmann, J., Carter, T. R., Ebi, K. L., Garschagen, M., Jones, B., Jones, R. N., et al. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0931-0 · Cited by 156 · see citing works
“Projections of access to public health and health care services and burdens of diseases are relevant for vulnerability and adaptation assessments (McCarthy et al. 2010; van Lieshout et al. 2004).”
MethodInfluentialKlein, T., & Anderegg, W. R. L. (2021) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2021.103098 · Cited by 157 · see citing works
Seress, G., Hammer, T., Bókony, V., Vincze, E., Preiszner, B., Pipoly, I., Sinkovics, C., Evans, K. L., & Liker, A. (2018) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1002/eap.1730 · Cited by 155 · see citing works
Gerstenberg, T., & Hofmann, M. (2015) · Urban forestry & urban greening · doi:10.1016/j.ufug.2015.12.004 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
“Trees’ cooling effects in urban areas will become more important given the impact of climate change (McCarthy et al., 2010).”
BackgroundExtreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate
Alizadeh-Choobari, O., & Najafi, M. S. (2017) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3602-4 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
“The stronger upward trend of the minimum temperature than the maximum which has been attributed to the urban development is consistent with previous studies (e.g., Karl et al. 1984, 1993; McCarthy et al. 2010; Argüeso et al. 2014; Alizadeh-Choobari et al. 2016a).”
ResultSeasonal hysteresis of surface urban heat islands
Manoli, G., Fatichi, S., Bou-Zeid, E. R., & Katul, G. G. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1917554117 · Cited by 145 · see citing works
Weber, S. A., Sadoff, N., Zell, E., & de Sherbinin, A. (2015) · Applied Geography · doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.07.006 · Cited by 147 · see citing works
Seasonal dependence of the urban heat island on the street canyon aspect ratio
Theeuwes, N., Steeneveld, G., Ronda, R., Heusinkveld, B., Hove, L. V., & Holtslag, A. (2014) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.2289 · Cited by 134 · see citing works
“…the projected increase in frequency and intensity of periods of extreme heat due to climate change (Solomon et al., 2007; Fischer and Schär, 2010), urbanisation may pose serious challenges for cities regarding human thermal comfort and health (e.g. Kovats and Hajat, 2008; McCarthy et al., 2010).”
BackgroundContrasts between Urban and Rural Climate in CCSM4 CMIP5 Climate Change Scenarios
Oleson, K. W. (2011) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00098.1 · Cited by 140 · see citing works
“Following the analysis in McCarthy et al. (2010a), Fig.”
InfluentialMartins, T. A. D. L., Adolphe, L., Bonhomme, M., Bonneaud, F., Faraut, S., Ginestet, S., Michel, C., & Guyard, W. (2016) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2016.05.003 · Cited by 140 · see citing works
Huang, J., & Gurney, K. R. (2016) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.118 · Cited by 140 · see citing works
Melaas, E. K., Wang, J. A., Miller, D. L., & Friedl, M. A. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054020 · Cited by 139 · see citing works
“In Boston, general circulation models project that mean springtime temperatures will rise 2.4 °C–6.0 °C by the end of this century (Kirshen et al 2008, McCarthy et al 2010).”
BackgroundInfluentialImpacts of 1.5°C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems
IPCC (2022) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009157940.005 · Cited by 153 · see citing works
The State-of-the-Art of Urban Climate Change Modeling and Observations
Hamdi, R., Kusaka, H., Doan, Q., Cai, P., He, H., Luo, G., Kuang, W., Caluwaerts, S., Duchêne, F., Schaeybroeck, B. V., et al. (2020) · Earth Systems and Environment · doi:10.1007/s41748-020-00193-3 · Cited by 137 · see citing works
Urban-Hazard Risk Analysis: Mapping of Heat-Related Risks in the Elderly in Major Italian Cities
Morabito, M., Crisci, A., Gioli, B., Gualtieri, G., Toscano, P., Stefano, V. D., Orlandini, S., & Gensini, G. F. (2015) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0127277 · Cited by 133 · see citing works
“The decision to focus on urban areas stems from recent extreme-heat events causing serious health, economic and social problems worldwide (Europe, USA, Australia and Asia) with strong heat-impact due to global warming predicted in cities [26].”
BackgroundContemporary climatic analogs for 540 North American urban areas in the late 21st century
Fitzpatrick, M. C., & Dunn, R. R. (2019) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-019-08540-3 · Cited by 133 · see citing works
Effects of City Expansion on Heat Stress under Climate Change Conditions
Argüeso, D., Evans, J. P., Pitman, A. J., & Luca, A. D. (2015) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0117066 · Cited by 132 · see citing works
“Both phenomena—climate change and urban expansion— interactions are non-linear and their effects cannot be regarded as independent and additive [11, 12].”
BackgroundUrban climatology: History, status and prospects
Mills, G. M. (2014) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2014.06.004 · Cited by 131 · see citing works
Li, X., Zhou, Y., Asrar, G., & Zhu, Z. (2018) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2018.05.034 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
Urban change as an untapped opportunity for climate adaptation
Egerer, M., Haase, D., McPhearson, T., Frantzeskaki, N., Andersson, E., Nagendra, H., & Ossola, A. (2021) · npj Urban Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s42949-021-00024-y · Cited by 130 · see citing works
The city and the coming climate: climate change in the places we live
(2012) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.50-1484 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
Consequences of a green image of drone food delivery services: The moderating role of gender and age
Hwang, J., & Kim, H. (2019) · Business Strategy and the Environment · doi:10.1002/bse.2289 · Cited by 128 · see citing works
Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold waves
Smid, M., Russo, S., Costa, A. C., Granell, C., & Pebesma, E. J. (2019) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2018.12.010 · Cited by 128 · see citing works
Loridan, T., & Grimmond, S. (2011) · Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology · doi:10.1175/jamc-d-11-038.1 · Cited by 124 · see citing works
“With an ever-increasing portion of the world’s population living in cities, interest in the impact of built environments on the local (and global) climate is rising (Grossman-Clarke et al. 2010; McCarthy et al. 2010).”
BackgroundKey Conclusions of the First International Urban Land Surface Model Comparison Project
Best, M. J., & Grimmond, S. (2014) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-14-00122.1 · Cited by 124 · see citing works
“Predictions of future climate suggest additional warming in urban environments ( McCarthy et al. , 2010, Oleson et al. , 2011).”
Self-citationBhowmik, A. K., Padmanaban, R., Cabral, P., & Romeiras, M. M. (2022) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su14084433 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
“Global warming will cause an increase of about 25% in average global precipitation by 2050 [102], although the regional patterns will vary, i.”
BackgroundSpatiotemporal variation of landscape patterns and their spatial determinants in Shanghai, China
Feng, Y., Liu, Y., & Tong, X. (2017) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.12.034 · Cited by 117 · see citing works
“Landscape analysis is also affected by biophysical and humaninduced factors that may lead to variation in landscape patterns (McCarthy et al., 2010; Peng et al., 2017).”
BackgroundYao, R., Wang, L., Huang, X., Liu, Y., Niu, Z., Wang, L., & Wang, L. (2021) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145607 · Cited by 113 · see citing works
Lin, B.-S., & Lin, C.-T. (2016) · Urban forestry & urban greening · doi:10.1016/j.ufug.2016.10.003 · Cited by 115 · see citing works
Assessing the vulnerability of urban forests to climate change
Ordóñez, C., & Duinker, P. N. (2014) · Environmental Reviews · doi:10.1139/er-2013-0078 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
“Not only do cities contain the majority of the world’s population (UN-HABITAT 2012), but their microclimatic envelope may enhance future temperature increases (e.g., McCarthy et al. 2010).”
BackgroundHamdi, R., de Vyver, H. V., Troch, R. D., & Termonia, P. (2013) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.3734 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
“Daytime UHI seems to be substantially less affected by urbanization which is consistent with previous studies (Kalnay and Cai, 2003; Hua et al., 2008; McCarthy et al., 2010, Fischer et al., 2012).”
BackgroundResultInfluentialTewari, M., Yang, J., Kusaka, H., Salamanca, F., Watson, C., & Treinish, L. A. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaf431 · Cited by 113 · see citing works
“Two studies by McCarthy et al (2010) and Oleson et al (2010) coupled a GCM with the SLUCM to examine the influences of urban geometry and anthropogenic heat emissions on UHI intensity.”
Method
- Authors
- McCarthy, M. P., Best, M. J., & Betts, R. A.
- Affiliations
- Met Office (GB)
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2010-05
- Volume
- 37
- Issue
- 9
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W1622515456
- Semantic Scholar
- 92ce681105fa8e4139db43b8bd4c25997e3b2766
- Cited by
- 821
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 35 · 2025: 62 · 2024: 73 · 2023: 77 · 2022: 59 · 2021: 96 · 2020: 77 · 2019: 54 · 2018: 46 · 2017: 48 · 2016: 44 · 2015: 33 · 2014: 35 · 2013: 32 · 2012: 28
- FWCI
- 24.81
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/E017398/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Urban Heat Island Mitigation
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- urban heat island, climate change impacts on cities, urbanization, HadAM3, radiative forcing, heat waves, urban energy consumption, population growth, Middle East, Indian subcontinent, East Africa
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