Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands
Open accessAbstract
In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005–2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al. 2010 ). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs. The land-use harmonization strategy estimates fractional land-use patterns and underlying land-use transitions annually for the time period 1500–2100 at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution. Inputs include new gridded historical maps of crop and pasture data from HYDE 3.1 for 1500–2005, updated estimates of historical national wood harvest and of shifting cultivation, and future information on crop, pasture, and wood harvest from the IAM implementations of the RCPs for the period 2005–2100. The computational method integrates these multiple data sources, while minimizing differences at the transition between the historical reconstruction ending conditions and IAM initial conditions, and working to preserve the future changes depicted by the IAMs at the grid cell level. This study for the first time harmonizes land-use history data together with future scenario information from multiple IAMs into a single consistent, spatially gridded, set of land-use change scenarios for studies of human impacts on the past, present, and future Earth system.
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Deforestation peaks in the first half of the 21st century.
“Besides, the deforestation peaks in the first half of the 21st century 41 , with land cover assumed to remain constant beyond 2100.”
From Amazon dieback beyond the 21st century under high-emission scenarios by Earth System models (2025) · cites this paper as [41]
The RCP8.5 scenario description (section 2.3 Biomass density; page unavailable) projects forest-cover loss of 300 million hectares from 2000 to 2050, versus 150 million hectares from 2050 to 2100. That supports faster loss in the first half of the century for one scenario, but does not establish a deforestation peak or the unqualified claim across scenarios. (LLM, conf=0.78)
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- Authors
- Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L. P., Frolking, S., Betts, R. A., Feddema, J., Fischer, G., Fisk, J. P., Hibbard, K., Houghton, R. A., Janetos, A., Jones, C. D., Kindermann, G., Kinoshita, T., Klein Goldewijk, K., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Thomson, A., Thornton, P., van Vuuren, D. P., & Wang, Y. P.
- Affiliations
- Joint Global Change Research Institute (US)
- University of Maryland, College Park (US)
- University of New Hampshire (US)
- Met Office (GB)
- University of Kansas (US)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
- Ibaraki University (JP)
- Princeton University (US)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Hurtt, G. C.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Climatic Change
- Published
- 2011-08-09
- Volume
- 109
- Issue
- 1-2
- Pages
- 117-161
- ISSN
- 0165-0009 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-1480
- OpenAlex
- W2108940449
- Cited by
- 1,284
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 24 · 2025: 49 · 2024: 75 · 2023: 78 · 2022: 112 · 2021: 155 · 2020: 134 · 2019: 115 · 2018: 113 · 2017: 109 · 2016: 102 · 2015: 87 · 2014: 48 · 2013: 51 · 2012: 23
- FWCI
- 32.74
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by-nc
- Locations
- Climatic Change (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- University of New Hampshire Scholars Repository (University of New Hampshire at Manchester) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government (GA01101)
- Met Office (GA01101)
- Office of Science
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Remote Sensing in Agriculture
- Keywords
- land use change, land use transition, logging, shifting cultivation, RCP scenarios, integrated assessment models, Earth system models, historical land use reconstruction
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