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Inference by Eye: Confidence Intervals and How to Read Pictures of Data.
Abstract
Wider use in psychology of confidence intervals (CIs), especially as error bars in figures, is a desirable development. However, psychologists seldom use CIs and may not understand them well. The authors discuss the interpretation of figures with error bars and analyze the relationship between CIs and statistical significance testing. They propose 7 rules of eye to guide the inferential use of figures with error bars. These include general principles: Seek bars that relate directly to effects of interest, be sensitive to experimental design, and interpret the intervals. They also include guidelines for inferential interpretation of the overlap of CIs on independent group means. Wider use of interval estimation in psychology has the potential to improve research communication substantially.
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“…as a statistically significant difference (which is correct), but also interpret overlap as an insignificant difference (which is incorrect); see Cumming and Finch (2005) and Wright, Klein, and Wieczorek (2019) for detailed discussions of this misconception and how to address it in…”
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Magnavita, N., Meraglia, I., & Isolani, L. (2025) · Nutrients · doi:10.3390/nu17142300 · Cited by 6
Ho, N. T. T., & Le, H. V. (2025) · Thinking Skills and Creativity · doi:10.1016/j.tsc.2025.101990 · Cited by 4
Language Processing in Arabic Diglossia: Evidence for Memory-Based Automaticity
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“The error chart was interpreted using the visual method termed “inference by eye” [45] on the assumption that CIs provide “better answers to better questions” [46] and that “figures with error bars should replace p values” [47] (p. 27).”
MethodAnderson, S. F. (2022) · Behavior Research Methods · doi:10.3758/s13428-022-02043-8 · Cited by 4
“Moreover, the exact approach to confidence intervals using the noncentral t -distribution (e.g., Cumming & Finch, 2005; Steiger & Fouladi, 1997) is not immediately congruent with MI, given that it does not yield a within-imputation variance estimate.”
Content and attainment of individual treatment goals in CBT
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“Note that the slight overlapping of the confidence intervals of the goal type “ problems and symptoms ” and “ interpersonal goals ” does not impact the significance of the difference between the two groups (Cumming & Finch, 2005).”
BackgroundReal-time monitoring of middle ear prosthesis coupling
Müller, C., Polk, M., Lorenz, K., Bornitz, M., Zahnert, T., & Neudert, M. (2023) · Hearing Research · doi:10.1016/j.heares.2023.108737 · Cited by 4
Borza, V. A., Clayton, E. W., Kantarcıoğlu, M., Vorobeychik, Y., & Malin, B. (2022) · PubMed Central · Cited by 4
Comparing overlapping data distributions using visualization
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Metadata
- Authors
- Cumming, G., & Finch, S.
- Affiliations
- La Trobe University (AU)
- Venue
- American Psychologist
- Published
- 2005
- Volume
- 60
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 170-180
- ISSN
- 0003-066X (ISSN-L)
- 1935-990X
- OpenAlex
- W2005534705
- Cited by
- 1,449
- References
- 59
- Citations by year
- 2026: 62 · 2025: 66 · 2024: 74 · 2023: 92 · 2022: 102 · 2021: 110 · 2020: 92 · 2019: 86 · 2018: 80 · 2017: 82 · 2016: 76 · 2015: 89 · 2014: 63 · 2013: 59 · 2012: 48
- FWCI
- 39.36
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Psychologist (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistics Education and Methodologies
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Keywords
- confidence intervals, error bars, statistical significance testing, interval estimation, scholarly communication
- MeSH terms
- Humans, Confidence Intervals
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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