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Inference by Eye: Confidence Intervals and How to Read Pictures of Data.
Abstract
Wider use in psychology of confidence intervals (CIs), especially as error bars in figures, is a desirable development. However, psychologists seldom use CIs and may not understand them well. The authors discuss the interpretation of figures with error bars and analyze the relationship between CIs and statistical significance testing. They propose 7 rules of eye to guide the inferential use of figures with error bars. These include general principles: Seek bars that relate directly to effects of interest, be sensitive to experimental design, and interpret the intervals. They also include guidelines for inferential interpretation of the overlap of CIs on independent group means. Wider use of interval estimation in psychology has the potential to improve research communication substantially.
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“Previous work has shown that even experts trained in statistics make mistakes when interpreting confidence intervals [6, 7].”
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“…[0.72, 1.02], which suggests a large (0.72) bias against female-authored papers at one end of plausible estimates and a small (1.02) bias against male-authored papers at the other end of plausible estimates (for guidelines on interpreting confidence intervals, see Cumming and Finch, 2005: 174–175).”
BackgroundInfluentialMeasuring Reading Complexity and Listening Comprehension of Canadian Police Cautions
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“Conversely, p > .05 when the overlap is about half the average margin of error (Cumming & Finch, 2005).”
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“Overlap of the confidence intervals of no more than half the average indicates significance at approximately the 5% level (Cumming and Finch, 2005; note that confidence intervals were adjusted for within-subject comparisons).”
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“No error bars are displayed, given that all variables are repeated-measure (see Cumming & Fish, 2005 ).”
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“To aid the visual inspection of confidence intervals, a useful “rule of eye” has been developed (Cumming and Finch 2005; Cumming 2009) which is worth quoting in full: For a comparison of two independent proportions, two-tailed p 0.05 when POL [proportion overlap] is about 0.5 or less – in other…”
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“We used the procedure to test the difference between 2 beta coefficients (Cumming & Finch, 2005).”
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“To avoid the over-reliance on null hypothesis statistical testing documented in the literature [67–74], we evaluated treatment effects using the CIs of the paired differences between systems [67, 68].”
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“However, those values would not have made much sense for making inference about the mean difference between any two methods [18].”
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“An independent two-sided Student’s t test using Excel was performed, comparing filtered and unfiltered exhaust only [39].”
MethodMilitary Coalitions and the Outcome of Interstate Wars
Morey, D. S. (2014) · Foreign Policy Analysis · doi:10.1111/fpa.12083 · Cited by 21
Why and how to mystery shop your reference desk
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“A traditional null hypothesis testing metric such as the t-test only yields a yes/no (significant/not significant) result (McNamara, 1994; Cooper, 1998; Cumming and Finch, 2005).”
MethodLiebkind, K., Henning‐Lindblom, A., & Solheim, E. F. (2008) · European Journal of Social Psychology · doi:10.1002/ejsp.533 · Cited by 21
Would a STEM School ‘by any Other Name Smell as Sweet’?
Navruz, B., Erdoğan, N., Biçer, A., Capraro, R. M., & Capraro, M. M. (2014) · DergiPark (Istanbul University) · Cited by 21
Hilton, D. C., Jarrett, M. A., McDonald, K. L., & Ollendick, T. H. (2016) · Research on Child and Adolescent Psychopathology · doi:10.1007/s10802-016-0200-6 · Cited by 24
Burt, S. A., Pearson, A. L., Carroll, S. L., Klump, K. L., & Neiderhiser, J. M. (2019) · Research on Child and Adolescent Psychopathology · doi:10.1007/s10802-019-00587-6 · Cited by 20
Kellogg, J. A., Reganold, J. P., Murphy, K., & Carpenter‐Boggs, L. (2021) · Microbial Ecology · doi:10.1007/s00248-021-01710-1 · Cited by 20
Anomaly Detection Using Ensembles
Shoemaker, L., & Hall, L. (2011) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-21557-5_3 · Cited by 21
A Meta‐Analytic Review of Personality and Teacher–Student Relationships
Mammadov, S., & Avci, A. H. (2024) · Journal of Personality · doi:10.1111/jopy.12986 · Cited by 37
Kharbach, M., Mansouri, M. A., Taabouz, M., Zhang, T., & Yu, H. (2026) · Food Chemistry · doi:10.1016/j.foodchem.2026.147854 · Cited by 20
Single-Step Test for Unilateral Limb Ability Following Total Knee Arthroplasty
Marmon, A. R., McClelland, J. A., Stevens‐Lapsley, J. E., & Snyder‐Mackler, L. (2012) · Journal of Orthopaedic and Sports Physical Therapy · doi:10.2519/jospt.2013.4372 · Cited by 20
Westbury, H. R., Neumann, D. L., & Waters, A. M. (2015) · Anthrozoös · doi:10.2752/089279315x14129350722136 · Cited by 20
“Further examination of repeated-measures effects are reported using means and confidence intervals of the mean difference, following the recommendations outlined in Cumming and Finch (2005).”
MethodScreening for Protein-DNA Interactions by Automatable DNA-Protein Interaction ELISA
Brand, L. H., Henneges, C., ssler, A. S. ⁄., Kolukisaoglu, H. Ü., Koch, G., Wallmeroth, N., Hecker, A., Thurow, K., Zell, A., Harter, K., et al. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0075177 · Cited by 20
Tucker, M. A., Idrissi, A., & Almeida, D. (2021) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2020.586464 · Cited by 20
Hombeck, J., Meuschke, M., Zyla, L., Heuser, A.-J., Toader, J., Popp, F., Bruns, C. J., Hansen, C., Datta, R. R., & Lawonn, K. (2022) · IEEE Conference on Virtual Reality and 3D User Interfaces (VR) · doi:10.1109/vr51125.2022.00071 · Cited by 21
“The results also convey the effect size [11].”
BackgroundChater, A., Schulz, J., Jones, A., Burke, A., Carr, S., Kukucska, D., Troop, N., Trivedi, D. P., & Howlett, N. (2022) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2022.903109 · Cited by 22
Pelagic Sargassum as a Potential Vector for Microplastics into Coastal Ecosystems
Aranda, D. A., Cortés, T. P. G., Escalante, V. C., & Rodríguez-Martínez, R. E. (2024) · Phycology · doi:10.3390/phycology4010008 · Cited by 27
“Statistical comparisons among these confidence intervals were based on [51].”
BackgroundThe effect of STEM problem-based learning on students’ mathematical problem-solving beliefs
Shongwe, B. (2024) · Eurasia Journal of Mathematics Science and Technology Education · doi:10.29333/ejmste/14879 · Cited by 20
“However, it is important to provide an interpretation of figures with error bars and analyze the relationship between CIs and statistical significance testing (Cumming & Finch, 2005).”
BackgroundSibanda, M., Dube, T. J., Mubango, T., & Shoko, C. (2016) · Journal of Land Use Science · doi:10.1080/1747423x.2015.1130756 · Cited by 20
“The error bars were interpreted as explained in literature (Cumming & Finch, 2005, Masocha, 2010; Payton, Greenstone, & Schenker, 2003).”
BackgroundInfluentialRelationship education and marital satisfaction in newlywed couples: A propensity score analysis.
Cobb, R., & Sullivan, K. T. (2015) · Journal of family psychology · doi:10.1037/a0039580 · Cited by 23
An experimental test of state–behaviour feedbacks: gizzard mass and foraging behaviour in red knots
Mathot, K. J., Dekinga, A., & Piersma, T. (2017) · Functional Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2435.12827 · Cited by 20
“We evaluated support for effects based on estimated effects sizes and their 95% credible intervals (Cumming & Finch 2005; Nakagawa & Cuthill 2007).”
MethodBiosorption of chromium (VI) from textile waste water using luffa cylindrica activated carbon
Nwosu‐Obieogu, K., & Okolo, B. I. (2020) · Environmental Quality Management · doi:10.1002/tqem.21687 · Cited by 20
Yang, S., Mackenzie, C. F., Rock, P., Lin, C.-Y., Floccare, D., Scalea, T. M., Stumpf, F., Winans, C., Galvagno, S. M., Miller, C. H. T., et al. (2021) · The Journal of Trauma: Injury, Infection, and Critical Care · doi:10.1097/ta.0000000000003031 · Cited by 20
Active exploration of faces in police lineups increases discrimination accuracy.
Colloff, M. F., Flowe, H. D., Smith, H. M. J., Seale-Carlisle, T. M., Meissner, C. A., Rockey, J. C., Pande, B., Kujur, P., Parveen, N., Chandel, P., et al. (2021) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037/amp0000832 · Cited by 20
Ali, K., Iasiello, M. P., van Agteren, J. E., Mavrangelos, T., Kyrios, M., & Fassnacht, D. B. (2022) · Globalization and Health · doi:10.1186/s12992-022-00807-7 · Cited by 20
“, width of the CIs) do not differ by more than a factor of 2 [21], however, we chose to focus on non-overlapping CIs for the ease of interpretation.”
BackgroundDeutsch, R., & Fázio, R. H. (2008) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2008.03.001 · Cited by 20
“According to the ‘‘rules of eye” delineated by Cumming and Finch (2005), two independently sampled means differ at p 6 .05 if the two error bars do not overlap more than half o their length.”
BackgroundMethodInfluential
Metadata
- Authors
- Cumming, G., & Finch, S.
- Affiliations
- La Trobe University (AU)
- Venue
- American Psychologist
- Published
- 2005
- Volume
- 60
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 170-180
- ISSN
- 0003-066X (ISSN-L)
- 1935-990X
- OpenAlex
- W2005534705
- Cited by
- 1,449
- References
- 59
- Citations by year
- 2026: 62 · 2025: 66 · 2024: 74 · 2023: 92 · 2022: 102 · 2021: 110 · 2020: 92 · 2019: 86 · 2018: 80 · 2017: 82 · 2016: 76 · 2015: 89 · 2014: 63 · 2013: 59 · 2012: 48
- FWCI
- 39.36
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Psychologist (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistics Education and Methodologies
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Keywords
- confidence intervals, error bars, statistical significance testing, interval estimation, scholarly communication
- MeSH terms
- Humans, Confidence Intervals
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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