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Inference by Eye: Confidence Intervals and How to Read Pictures of Data.
Abstract
Wider use in psychology of confidence intervals (CIs), especially as error bars in figures, is a desirable development. However, psychologists seldom use CIs and may not understand them well. The authors discuss the interpretation of figures with error bars and analyze the relationship between CIs and statistical significance testing. They propose 7 rules of eye to guide the inferential use of figures with error bars. These include general principles: Seek bars that relate directly to effects of interest, be sensitive to experimental design, and interpret the intervals. They also include guidelines for inferential interpretation of the overlap of CIs on independent group means. Wider use of interval estimation in psychology has the potential to improve research communication substantially.
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“According to [23], only an overlap smaller than .”
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“Non-overlapping 95% CIs was an indication that means were significantly different between depths (Smith 1997; Cumming and Finch 2005).”
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“Confidence intervals are a reliable source for estimating effects size in the original measure (Cumming, 2013, 2014; Cumming & Finch, 2005; Fidler & Cumming, 2013), which can be visually inferred by observing the differences between the upper and the lower boundary between two means.”
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Strauser, D. R., Lustig, D. C., & Uruk, A. C. (2007) · Rehabilitation Counseling Bulletin · doi:10.1177/00343552070500040301 · Cited by 7
Failure of facial configural cues to alter metric stereoscopic depth
Gillam, B., Anderson, B. L., & Rizwi, F. (2009) · Journal of Vision · doi:10.1167/9.1.3 · Cited by 7
Facilitating the restoration of aquatic plant communities in a Ramsar wetland
Jellinek, S., Te, T., Gehrig, S., Stewart, H., & Nicol, J. (2016) · Restoration Ecology · doi:10.1111/rec.12355 · Cited by 7
“…that independent variables would display “some evidence” of a difference if the proportion of CI overlap was no more than half the average length of the two overlapping arms (p 0.05), and the two overlapping arms did not differ in length by more than a factor of two (Cumming & Finch 2005).”
BackgroundInfluentialStanley, C. T., & Byrne, M. D. (2016) · Psychological Methods · doi:10.1037/met0000098 · Cited by 7
“In similar spirit to Masson and Loftus (2003), Tryon (2001), and Cumming and Finch (2005), confidence intervals were used throughout for statistical inference instead of explicit p values.”
MethodWhite, B. (2017) · Australian Archaeology · doi:10.1080/03122417.2017.1417003 · Cited by 7
“Confidence intervals are often calculated at the 90% level or higher (e.g. Fletcher and Lock 2005:74–75) but at the 95% level, confidence intervals can overlap and assemblages may still be statistically different at the 0.05 probability level (Cumming and Finch 2005:176; Field 2013:71).”
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Fuerst, F., & Dalton, B. (2019) · Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie · doi:10.1365/s41056-019-00041-0 · Cited by 7
Einflussfaktoren auf das Stigmabewusstsein Arbeitsloser
Lang, S., & Groß, C. (2019) · Zeitschrift für Soziologie · doi:10.1515/zfsoz-2019-0018 · Cited by 9
Payne, J. W., & Schimmack, U. (2020) · Journal of Research in Personality · doi:10.1016/j.jrp.2020.104041 · Cited by 7
Lingelbach, K., Gado, S., Janssen, D., Piechnik, D., Eichler, M., Knopf, D., Hentschel, L., Schuler, M. K., Sernatinger, D., & Peißner, M. (2021) · Lecture notes in networks and systems · doi:10.1007/978-981-16-2377-6_81 · Cited by 7
Snook, B., Eastwood, J., Gendreau, P., & Bennell, C. (2010) · Journal of Forensic Psychology Practice · doi:10.1080/15228930903550541 · Cited by 7
“It is not good enough to simply say that a finding is statistically significant, because p values give little information about the utility of results or the potential of a finding being replicated (Cumming & Finch, 2005; Gendreau & Smith, 2007).”
BackgroundCOMPARING DENSITY ANALYSES AND CARNIVORE ECOLOGY IN MADAGASCAR’S SOUTHEASTERN RAINFOREST
Gerber, B. D. (2010) · VTechWorks (Virginia Tech) · doi:10.13140/rg.2.1.3071.7603 · Cited by 7
Significance Test, Confidence Interval, Both or Neither?
Knapp, T. R. (2017) · Clinical Nursing Research · doi:10.1177/1054773817708652 · Cited by 7
“Not so, say Cumming (2007), Cumming and Finch (2005), Moye (2006), and others.”
BackgroundEpidemiologische Beiträge zur Klinischen Psychologie
Beesdo-Baum, K., Höfler, M., Jacobi, F., & Wittchen, H.-U. (2020) · Klinische Psychologie & Psychotherapie · doi:10.1007/978-3-662-61814-1_3 · Cited by 6
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“Finally, although we explored within-module comparisons using confidence intervals of effect sizes, these estimates may be overly conservative or limited in their inter-pretability [61] so we encourage future researchers to adapt more directly comparable measures in future work.”
Approachability and Credibility of Virtual Character Faces: The Role of the Horizontal Viewing Angle
So, C., & Jung, K. (2023) · Human Factors The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society · doi:10.1177/00187208231153492 · Cited by 7
“Thus, the reader can identify signi fi cant differences by eyesight when standard errors of two means are not overlapping (Cumming & Finch, 2005).”
BackgroundReview of methods for assessing the measured heat transfer coefficient (HTC)
Ritoša, K., Collett, M., Juricic, S., Henshaw, G., Li, M., Roels, S., & Fitton, R. (2025) · Building and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2025.114082 · Cited by 6
Metadata
- Authors
- Cumming, G., & Finch, S.
- Affiliations
- La Trobe University (AU)
- Venue
- American Psychologist
- Published
- 2005
- Volume
- 60
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 170-180
- ISSN
- 0003-066X (ISSN-L)
- 1935-990X
- OpenAlex
- W2005534705
- Cited by
- 1,449
- References
- 59
- Citations by year
- 2026: 62 · 2025: 66 · 2024: 74 · 2023: 92 · 2022: 102 · 2021: 110 · 2020: 92 · 2019: 86 · 2018: 80 · 2017: 82 · 2016: 76 · 2015: 89 · 2014: 63 · 2013: 59 · 2012: 48
- FWCI
- 39.36
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Psychologist (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistics Education and Methodologies
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Keywords
- confidence intervals, error bars, statistical significance testing, interval estimation, scholarly communication
- MeSH terms
- Humans, Confidence Intervals
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