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A comparison of methods to test mediation and other intervening variable effects
Open accessAbstract
A Monte Carlo study compared 14 methods to test the statistical significance of the intervening variable effect. An intervening variable (mediator) transmits the effect of an independent variable to a dependent variable. The commonly used R. M. Baron and D. A. Kenny (1986) approach has low statistical power. Two methods based on the distribution of the product and 2 difference-in-coefficients methods have the most accurate Type I error rates and greatest statistical power except in 1 important case in which Type I error rates are too high. The best balance of Type I error and statistical power across all cases is the test of the joint significance of the two effects comprising the intervening variable effect.
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“The z' test indicated that change in basic psychological need satisfaction was a significant mediator of the direct relation (z' = -2.26, p < .01).”
From The path taken: Consequences of attaining intrinsic and extrinsic aspirations in post-college life (2009) · cites this paper as MacKinnon et al. (2002)
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“However, using cross-sectional samples with SEM models is generally considered an acceptable way to measure mediation when longitudinal data are not available.[24][25][26]”
From INTOLERANCE OF UNCERTAINTY AS A MEDIATOR OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PERFECTIONISM AND OBSESSIVE-COMPULSIVE SYMPTOM SEVERITY: Research Article: IU Mediating Perfectionism and OCD Symptoms (2013) · cites this paper as [25]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
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“This method offers greater statistical power than both the traditional causal steps approach popularized by Baron and Kenny (1986) and the Sobel test (Sobel 1982), which uses normal theory confidence intervals (e.g., Hayes, 2009; MacKinnon, Lockwood, Hoffman, West, & Sheets, 2002).”
From The relationship between low levels of mindfulness skills and pathological worry: The mediating role of psychological inflexibility. [La relación entre habilidades de mindfulness y preocupación patológica: El rol mediador de la inflexibilidad psicológica] (2014) · cites this paper as MacKinnon, Lockwood, Hoffman, West, & Sheets, 2002
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“The z' test indicated that change in basic psychological need satisfaction was a significant mediator of the direct relation (z' = 2.69, p < .01).”
From The path taken: Consequences of attaining intrinsic and extrinsic aspirations in post-college life (2009) · cites this paper as MacKinnon, Lockwood, Hoffman, West, and Sheets (2002)
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“The final sample size included in the analysis was deemed adequate for the use of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and moderation effects which require a minimum sample size of 200 or more (Wolf et al., 2013;MacKinnon et al., 2002).”
From Promoting transparency and accountability towards anti-corruption in pharmaceutical procurement system: does e-procurement play a significant role? (2024) · cites this paper as MacKinnon et al., 2002
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“Even if paths a and b estimates may both be normally distributed, the path a×b product is not expected to be normally distributed [108].”
From Distinct Brain Systems Mediate the Effects of Nociceptive Input and Self-Regulation on Pain (2015) · cites this paper as [108]
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“They recommended the use of the distribution of the product approach or bootstrapping over the Sobel test or causal steps approach, on the grounds that the former have higher power while maintaining reasonable control over the Type I error rate.”
From Asymptotic and resampling strategies for assessing and comparing indirect effects in multiple mediator models (2008) · cites this paper as MacKinnon et al., 2002
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Wood, R., Goodman, J. S., Beckmann, N., & Cook, A. (2008) · Organizational Research Methods · doi:10.1177/1094428106297811 · Cited by 201
Ray, D., & Chatterjee, N. (2020) · PLoS Genetics · doi:10.1371/journal.pgen.1009218 · Cited by 242
Dynamic Self-Efficacy and Outcome Expectancies: Prediction of Smoking Lapse and Relapse.
Gwaltney, C. J., Shiffman, S., Balabanis, M. H., & Paty, J. A. (2005) · Journal of Abnormal Psychology · doi:10.1037/0021-843x.114.4.661 · Cited by 232
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Metadata
- Authors
- MacKinnon, D. P., Lockwood, C. M., Hoffman, J. M., West, S. G., & Sheets, V.
- Affiliations
- Arizona State University (US)
- Venue
- Psychological Methods
- Published
- 2002
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 83-104
- ISSN
- 1082-989X (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1463
- PMC
- PMC2819363
- OpenAlex
- W2068719957
- Cited by
- 9,406
- References
- 60
- Citations by year
- 2026: 271 · 2025: 308 · 2024: 348 · 2023: 360 · 2022: 450 · 2021: 453 · 2020: 446 · 2019: 441 · 2018: 423 · 2017: 463 · 2016: 464 · 2015: 559 · 2014: 610 · 2013: 599 · 2012: 597
- FWCI
- 94.81
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Psychological Methods (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Drug Abuse (DA 09757, R01DA009757, R37DA009757)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Psychometric Methodologies and Testing
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Keywords
- mediation analysis, statistical power, type I error rate, Monte Carlo simulation
- MeSH terms
- Humans, Models, Psychological
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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