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Carbon losses from all soils across England and Wales 1978–2003
Abstract
More than twice as much carbon is held in soils as in vegetation or the atmosphere, and changes in soil carbon content can have a large effect on the global carbon budget. The possibility that climate change is being reinforced by increased carbon dioxide emissions from soils owing to rising temperature is the subject of a continuing debate. But evidence for the suggested feedback mechanism has to date come solely from small-scale laboratory and field experiments and modelling studies. Here we use data from the National Soil Inventory of England and Wales obtained between 1978 and 2003 to show that carbon was lost from soils across England and Wales over the survey period at a mean rate of 0.6% yr(-1) (relative to the existing soil carbon content). We find that the relative rate of carbon loss increased with soil carbon content and was more than 2% yr(-1) in soils with carbon contents greater than 100 g kg(-1). The relationship between rate of carbon loss and carbon content is irrespective of land use, suggesting a link to climate change. Our findings indicate that losses of soil carbon in England and Wales--and by inference in other temperate regions-are likely to have been offsetting absorption of carbon by terrestrial sinks.
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“UK wide surveys recording trends in soil carbon over time (at the 0–15 cm depth) have also reported significant reductions (~6%) in soil carbon under managed fertile grasslands between 1998 and 2007 (Bellamy, Loveland, Bradley, Lark, & Kirk, 2005; Emmett et al., 2010).”
From Measured and modelled effect of land‐use change from temperate grassland to Miscanthus on soil carbon stocks after 12 years (2019) · cites this paper as Bellamy et al., 2005
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the citing paper
“In addition, there are indications (Bellamy et al., 2005;Monson et al., 2006;Luo, 2007;Arnone et al., 2008;Bond-Lamberty and Thomson, 2010;Smith and Fang, 2010;Yvon-Durocher et al., 2010;Zhao and Running, 2010) of a positive feedback in which increases in global temperature lower the ability of present soils and other parts of the biosphere to absorb CO 2”
From Breeding crop plants with deep roots: their role in sustainable carbon, nutrient and water sequestration (2011) · cites this paper as Bellamy et al., 2005
In the citing paper
“The first thing to note is the huge variation in the organic (carbon) content of soils -at least 15-fold in the UK alone (Bellamy et al., 2005;Bradley et al., 2005;Ostle et al., 2009).”
From Breeding crop plants with deep roots: their role in sustainable carbon, nutrient and water sequestration (2011) · cites this paper as Bellamy et al., 2005
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Managing Soil Organic Carbon for Global Benefits
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“…modifications exerted by the climate on the processes affecting SOM: (i) collection of paleoecological and historical data (Prentice & Sykes, 1995; Bellamy et al., 2005); (ii) calculation of the relationships between SOM contents and climatic characteristics (Post et al., 1982); (iii) calculation…”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialFalloon, P., Smith, P., Betts, R., JONES, C. D., Smith, J., Hemming, D. L., & Challinor, A. (2009) · Environmental science and engineering · doi:10.1007/978-3-540-88246-6_5 · Cited by 12
A Modified Method of Weight Loss on Ignition to Evaluate Soil Organic Matter Fractions
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Modification of Fertility of Soil Materials for Restoration of Acid Grassland Habitat
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BackgroundEco-balance analysis of six agricultural land uses in the Ikushunbetsu watershed
Bellingrath‐Kimura, S. D., Mu, Z., Toma, Y., & Hatano, R. (2007) · Soil Science & Plant Nutrition · doi:10.1111/j.1747-0765.2007.00155.x · Cited by 10
“Although soil respiration is rarely considered for GHG emissions from farmland soil, except where there was a land use change, there is evidence that continuous cultivation reduces the carbon content even in mineral soils, and at quite high values in the case of organic soils ( Bellamy et al. 2005 ).”
MacCarthy, J., Broomfield, M., Brown, P. M., Buys, G., Cardenas, L. M., Murrells, T., Watterson, J. D., Passant, N., Thistlethwaite, G., & Watterson, J. D. (2010) · NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) · Cited by 10
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MethodDecadal Changes of Organic Carbon, Nitrogen, and Acidity of Austrian Forest Soils
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“Efforts to enhance carbon sequestration are justified by the declines in SOM reported, irrespective of soil type and land use, across England and Wales ( Bellamy et al. 2005 ).”
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Are golf courses a source or sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide? A modelling approach
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Carbon Sequestration and Photosynthesis in Newly Established Turfgrass Cover in Central Chile
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“…of the quantitative details and mechanisms of soil organic matter (SOM) storage and dynamics in relation to changes in land cover/land use, climate, and the gas composition of the atmosphere (Bellamy et al., 2005; Fung et al., 2005; Heath et al., 2005; Jastrow et al., 2005; Potter et al., 2006).”
BackgroundAguilos, M. M., Takagi, K., Liang, N., Watanabe, Y. W., Goto, S., Takahashi, Y., Mukai, H., & Sasa, K. (2011) · doi:10.5194/bgd-8-6415-2011 · Cited by 9
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Mendes, R. G., do Valle, R. F., Feitosa, T. H. S., Silva, M. M. A. P. D. M., Fernandes, L. F. S., Pacheco, F. A. L., Pissarra, T. C. T., Lana, R. M. Q., de Melo, M. C., & Valera, C. A. (2024) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175026 · Cited by 8
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The Global Carbon and Oxygen Cycles
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Biochar improves fertility in waste derived manufactured soils, but not resilience to climate change
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“Soils are known to store more than twice as much carbon as is contained in the vegetation or the atmosphere (Bellamy et al., 2005).”
Baseline-Dependent Responses of Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics to Climate and Land Disturbances
Tan, Z., & Liu, S. (2013) · Applied and Environmental Soil Science · doi:10.1155/2013/206758 · Cited by 8
“[3] reported that the annual loss rate of SOC from soils across England and Wales over the survey period between 1978 and 2003 ranged from 0.”
BackgroundSpatial Variability of Bomb 14C in an Upland Peat Bog
Hardie, S. M. L., Garnett, M. H., Fallick, A. E., Rowland, A. P., & Ostle, N. (2007) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/s0033822200042910 · Cited by 8
“Indeed, it has been suggested that in the UK, organic soils, including peatlands, have already lost as much as 10% C in the past 30 yr (Bellamy et al. 2005).”
BackgroundOn Soil Carbon Monitoring Networks
Arrouays, D., Marchant, B. P., Saby, N., Meersmans, J., Jolivet, C. C., Orton, T. G., Martin, M. P., Bellamy, P., Lark, R. M., Louis, B., et al. (2014) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-04084-4_6 · Cited by 8
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Tomer, M. D., James, D. E., Schipper, L. A., & Wills, S. (2017) · Soil Science Society of America Journal · doi:10.2136/sssaj2017.06.0198 · Cited by 8
“After Bellamy et al. (2005) reported that, based on repeated sampling of 555 sites, surface soils of England and Wales were losing 4.4 Tg SOC yr–1 and attributed this to climate change, Smith et al. (2007) responded by critiquing the re-sampling approach, likelihood of statistical artifacts, and…”
BackgroundInfluentialFarmer's Perceptions of Soil Tests: A Case Study in the Netherlands
Reijneveld, A., Bohemen, F. J. V., Termorshuizen, A. J., & Oenema, O. (2019) · Acta Scientific Agriculture · doi:10.31080/asag.2019.03.0570 · Cited by 8
The Carbon Cycle of Terrestrial Ecosystems
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The Impact of Land-Use Practices on Soil Microbes
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“The results of this work are very promising, and there is a real prospect of deploying a handful of techniques to capture the entirety of ecosystem level responses to land-use and climate change, better to inform the policy and de cision making as called for by Barrios (2007) .”
BackgroundIntegrating terrestrial sequestration into a greenhouse gas management plan
Brown, J. R., & Sampson, N. (2009) · Geophysical monograph · doi:10.1029/2006gm000354 · Cited by 8
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“Indeed, soil carbon changes have already been shown by various studies using numerous paired samples taken exactly at the same location, which is not the case in our study (e.g., Bellamy et al., 2005).”
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“…SOC values, and the relative change in the baseline may better reflect the SOC change under climate change and land usemanagement (Pan et al. 2010), Similar to Bellamy et al. (2005), we utilized the SOCC rate (g kg−1 year−1) to trace SOC dynamics, which is calculated using the following equation:”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialIntertemporal soil management: revisiting the shape of the crop production function
Issanchou, A., Daniel, K., Dupraz, P. P., & Ropars-Collet, C. (2019) · Journal of Environmental Planning and Management · doi:10.1080/09640568.2018.1515730 · Cited by 8
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“The few existing repeated national forests soil monitoring systems report a wide range of short time changes in soil C: loss in England and Wales [29] and gain in Finland [30] and France [19].”
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Photochemical Oxidation of Soil Organic Matter by Sunlight
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Review of the historical environmental changes in the UK uplands relevant to management and policy
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“…Erosion Upland peat and soil erosion are widespread (e.g. Grieve et al. 1995, Tallis et al. 1997, Tallis 1998, Higgitt et al. 2001) and pose a serious threat to the large carbon stores in upland sediments and thus to climate change (Bellamy et al. 2005, Dawson & Smith 2007, Holden et al. 2007a).”
BackgroundEditorial "The Interdisciplinary Nature of SOIL"Preprint
Brevik, E. C., Cerdà, A., Mataix‐Solera, J., Pereg, L. L., Quinton, J. N., Six, J., & Oost, K. V. (2014) · doi:10.5194/soild-1-429-2014 · Cited by 8
“…by soils (de Vries et al., 2013), (ii) soils are being paved over at an increasing rate (Procop et al., 2011), (iii) soil C stores are dwindling (Bellamy et al., 2005), (iv) soil15 compaction, acidification and salinization are widespread problems (e.g. Jones et al., 2003), and (v) rates of…”
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“Numerous analyses have indicated a general trend of SOC increase in cultivated land (Meersmans et al. 2011; Reijneveld et al. 2009; Sleutel et al. 2006; Mao et al. 2014), while an overall decline in cropland SOC stock has been observed in some locations (Bellamy et al. 2005; Saby et al. 2008).”
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Spatial patterns of soil organic carbon stocks and its controls in Chinese grassland ecosystems
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The effects of land use on soil carbon stocks in the UK
Levy, P., Bentley, L., Danks, P., Emmett, B. A., Garbutt, A., Heming, S. D., Henrys, P. A., Keith, A. M., Lebron, I., McNamara, N. P., et al. (2024) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-21-4301-2024 · Cited by 8
“Some survey data have suggested that change in soil carbon has occurred over time, irrespective of50 land-use change (Bellamy et al., 2005, Reynolds et al. (2013)), though whether changes are real, general, or what their cause is is subject to debate (Smith et al., 2007, Chamberlain et al. (2010)).”
BackgroundLiu, S., Tan, Z., Chen, M., Liu, J., Wein, A. M., Li, Z., Huang, S., Oeding, J., Young, C. J., Verma, S. B., et al. (2012) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-386897-8.00018-8 · Cited by 7
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“Analysis of the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) contents of plants and soils is crucial for assessing how climate and land-use change affect global biogeochemical cycles (Guo and Gifford 2002; Bellamy et al. 2005; Powlson et al. 2011).”
Effects of land-use-change scenarios on terrestrial carbon stocks in South Korea
Lee, D. K., Park, C., & Tomlin, D. (2013) · Landscape and Ecological Engineering · doi:10.1007/s11355-013-0235-6 · Cited by 7
“…Ibaraki 305-8506, Korea e-mail: momo7@snu.ac.kr D. Tomlin Landscape Architecture, School of Design, The University of Pennsylvania, 3451 Walnut street, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA e-mail: tomlin.dana@verizon.net (Jeong et al. 1998; Arrouays et al. 2001; Bellamy et al. 2005; Schulp et al. 2008).”
BackgroundKeizer, J. J., & Hessel, R. (2019) · CATENA · doi:10.1016/j.catena.2019.104148 · Cited by 7
Lilly, A., Baggaley, N. J., & Edwards, A. C. (2019) · Soil Use and Management · doi:10.1111/sum.12562 · Cited by 7
Soil carbon under arable and mixed dairy cropping in a long-term trial in SE Norway
Riley, H., Henriksen, T. M., Torp, T., & Korsæth, A. (2022) · Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica Section B - Soil & Plant Science · doi:10.1080/09064710.2022.2047770 · Cited by 7
“Bellamy et al. (2005) reported declines in SOC throughout England and Wales in recent decades,”
BackgroundLeifeld, J., Bader, C., Borraz, E. A., Hoffmann, M., Giebels, M., Sommer, M., & Augustin, J. (2014) · doi:10.5194/bgd-11-12341-2014 · Cited by 7
“Where SOM stocks (1966) were larger than 45 kg m−2 (“Luchdämme”) or 70 kg m−2 (railway dam), respectively, SOM losses occurred and increased linearly with SOM stocks (compare20 Bellamy et al., 2005).”
BackgroundSmith, J., Chapman, S., Bell, J. S., Bellarby, J., Gottschalk, P., Hudson, G., Lilly, A., Smith, P., & Towers, W. (2009) · Lancaster EPrints (Lancaster University) · Cited by 7
A review of compost and manure effects on soil health, and wheat growth under drought stress
Kamran, M. A., Truong, T. H. H., Marschner, P., & Weng, Z. H. (2025) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-26522-8.00015-5 · Cited by 7
First Signs That National Cropland Organic Carbon Loss Is Reversing in British Topsoils
Bentley, L., Thomas, A. R. C., Garbutt, A., Williams, B., Reinsch, S., Lebron, I., Brentegani, M., Keenan, P. O., Wood, C. M., Smart, S. M., et al. (2025) · European Journal of Soil Science · doi:10.1111/ejss.70131 · Cited by 6
“The observed increase in SOC is a positive sign for the functionality of British cropland soils and marks a stark departure from the significant losses reported in the previous three decades, as identified by multiple national assessments (Bellamy et al. 2005; Emmett et al. 2010).”
Land use-induced soil carbon loss in the dry tropics nearly offsets gains in northern lands
Wang, H., Ciais, P., Yang, H., Smith, P., Grassi, G., Schwingshackl, C., Panagos, P., Bar‐On, Y. M., Sitch, S. A., Chevallier, F., et al. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-64929-3 · Cited by 9
“On the other hand, regionalinventories 20,21 and insitu observations 22,23 cannot easily be scaled up to a global budget of soil carbon change, given the huge spatial heterogeneity of SOC.”
Liu, J., Nie, X., Wang, S., Ran, N., Zhang, W., Chen, Y. R., & Li, Z. (2026) · Biology and Fertility of Soils · doi:10.1007/s00374-026-01977-x · Cited by 6
“…reservoir of OC (containing 1500 ~ 2000 Pg C to a depth of 1 m), and even minor changes within it can profoundly affect the global carbon balance (Bellamy et al. 2005; Houghton Given that the stability of SOC is fundamentally linked to the soil’s function as a vital terrestrial carbon sink…”
Advances in measuring soil organic carbon stocks and dynamics at the profile scale
Poeplau, C., Gregorich, E. G., & Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, C. (2022) · Burleigh Dodds series in agricultural science · doi:10.19103/as.2022.0106.10 · Cited by 6
Low black carbon concentration in agricultural soils of central and northern Ethiopia
Yli‐Halla, M., Rimhanen, K., Muurinen, J., Kaseva, J., & Kahiluoto, H. (2018) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.284 · Cited by 6
Xie, L., Liu, D., Müller, C., Jansen‐Willems, A., Chen, Z., Niu, Y., Zaman, M., Meng, L., & Ding, W. (2022) · Agriculture · doi:10.3390/agriculture12111940 · Cited by 6
“The increasing use of synthetic fertilizers is also causing increased nitrifier activity, transforming modern agricultural systems into high-nitrifying environments [5,6].”
A programme to address evidence gaps in greenhouse gas and carbon fluxes from UK peatlands
Evans, C., Worrall, F., Holden, J., Chapman, P. J., Smith, P., & Artz, R. (2011) · Cited by 6
Buckingham, S., Rees, R. M., & Watson, C. A. (2013) · The Journal of Agricultural Science · doi:10.1017/s0021859613000300 · Cited by 6
“Bellamy et al. (2005) reported an average C loss rate of 0·6% per year for topsoils (to 150mm depth) between 1978 and 2003, utilizing National Soil Inventory data for England and Wales.”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialSchröder, W., & Pesch, R. (2011) · Environmental Sciences Europe · doi:10.1186/2190-4715-23-31 · Cited by 6
“Further, the projected climate change will accelerate the release of CO2 from the soil, contributing to higher concentrations in the atmosphere [40,41].”
BackgroundTang, J., Busso, C. A., Jiang, D., Musa, A., Wu, D., Wang, Y., & Miao, C. (2016) · Solid Earth · doi:10.5194/se-7-1085-2016 · Cited by 6
Huang, D., & Yu, T. (2017) · Radiochimica Acta · doi:10.1515/ract-2016-2699 · Cited by 6
The role of soils in the Kyoto Protocol
Smith, P., Falloon, P., & Kutsch, W. L. (2010) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511711794.014 · Cited by 6
An inventory of carbon storage in forest soil and down woody material of the United States
Perry, C. H., Woodall, C. W., Amacher, M. C., & O'Neill, K. P. (2009) · Geophysical monograph · doi:10.1029/2006gm000341 · Cited by 6
Karim, A., Hifnalisa, H., Jufri, Y., Fazlina, Y. D., & Megawati, M. (2022) · IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science · doi:10.1088/1755-1315/951/1/012009 · Cited by 6
“Generally, the organic matter content in these soils is very low within the upper soil layer [21,25,30,31].”
BackgroundDevelopments in soil phosphorus status in a recently reclaimed polder in the Netherlands
Reijneveld, A., & Oenema, O. (2012) · Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10705-012-9524-y · Cited by 6
“In contrast, recent reports indicate that arable farms in for example Belgium (Sleutel et al. 2003), England (Bellamy et al. 2005) and southeast Norway (Riley and Bakkegard 2006) face a decrease in mean SOM contents due to changes in crop rotations, soil cultivation practices and/or climate change.”
ResultBroad-Scale Soil Monitoring Through a Nationwide Soil-Testing Database
Lemercier, B., Arrouays, D., Follain, S., Saby, N., Schvartz, C., & Walter, C. A. (2008) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-4020-8592-5_23 · Cited by 6
Soil Carbon Sequestration in Central U.S. Agroecosystems
Cambardella, C. A., Johnson, J. M. F., & Varvel, G. E. (2012) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-386897-8.00004-8 · Cited by 6
Potts, J. M., Chapman, S., Towers, W., & Campbell, C. D. (2009) · European Journal of Soil Science · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2389.2009.01136_1.x · Cited by 6
“In their paper in this journal, Lark et al. (2006) use data from the study of changes in OC content of the soils in England and Wales (Bellamy et al., 2005) to illustrate the effect of regression to the mean.”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialSchulp, C. J. E. (2009) · doi:10.18174/14356 · Cited by 6
“The rate and amount of decomposition depend on several factors: When SOM stocks are larger, decomposition speed is higher (Bellamy et al., 2005).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialMonitoring Soil Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services by Using Large‐Scale Survey Data
Keith, A. M., Griffiths, R. I., Henrys, P. A., Hughes, S., Lebron, I., Maskell, L. C., Ogle, S. M., Robinson, D. A., Rowe, E. C., Smart, S. M., et al. (2015) · ASSA, CSSA and SSSA · doi:10.2136/2015.soilecosystemsservices.2014.0070 · Cited by 8
Liu, S., Yang, Y., Shen, H., Hu, H., Zhao, X., Li, H., Liu, T., & Fang, J. (2017) · doi:10.5194/bg-2016-473 · Cited by 6
National Ecosystem and Ecosystem Service Mapping Pilot for a Suite of Prioritised Services
Parker, N. H., Naumann, E.-K., Medcalf, K., Haines-Young, R. H., Potschin, M., Kretsch, C., Parker, J., & Burkhard, B. (2016) · Trinity's Access to Research Output (TARA) (Trinity College Dublin) · Cited by 6
Li, T., Guo, X., Huang, D., Wei, X., Sheng, H., Luo, P., Zhou, P., Gao, W., Li, Y., Zhang, M., et al. (2024) · Journal of Soils and Sediments · doi:10.1007/s11368-024-03894-8 · Cited by 5
“5 pollution), but also causes valuable natural resources crucial for crop cultivation (Bellamy et al. 2005; Sun et al. 2016).”
Acosta, J. A., Imbernón-Mulero, A., Gallego-Elvira, B., Maestre-Valero, J. F., Martínez-Martínez, S., & Álvarez, V. M. (2024) · Plants · doi:10.3390/plants13172399 · Cited by 5
“Globally, soils are the biggest terrestrial carbon sink, storing more than twice as much carbon than the vegetation and atmosphere [12,13].”
BackgroundOverview to four volumes: sustainable agriculture and food.
Pretty, J. (2008) · Cited by 5
Metadata
- Authors
- Bellamy, P. H., Loveland, P. J., Bradley, R. I., Lark, R. M., & Kirk, G. J. D.
- Affiliations
- Cranfield University (GB)
- Rothamsted Research (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Kirk, Guy J. D.
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2005-09
- Volume
- 437
- Issue
- 7056
- Pages
- 245-248
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2013840199
- Cited by
- 1,131
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 18 · 2025: 26 · 2024: 35 · 2023: 33 · 2022: 42 · 2021: 46 · 2020: 44 · 2019: 42 · 2018: 50 · 2017: 50 · 2016: 61 · 2015: 52 · 2014: 71 · 2013: 54 · 2012: 64
- FWCI
- 110.59
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Rothamsted Repository (Rothamsted Repository) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- CERES (Cranfield University) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Soil erosion and sediment transport
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Soil Geostatistics and Mapping
- Keywords
- soil carbon loss, soil carbon feedback, climate change, global carbon budget, soil carbon content, terrestrial carbon sink, England and Wales
- MeSH terms
- Carbon, Carbon Dioxide, England, Poaceae, Soil, Soil Microbiology, Temperature, Wales, Water, Linear Models, Greenhouse Effect, Ecosystem, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century
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