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Carbon losses from all soils across England and Wales 1978–2003
Abstract
More than twice as much carbon is held in soils as in vegetation or the atmosphere, and changes in soil carbon content can have a large effect on the global carbon budget. The possibility that climate change is being reinforced by increased carbon dioxide emissions from soils owing to rising temperature is the subject of a continuing debate. But evidence for the suggested feedback mechanism has to date come solely from small-scale laboratory and field experiments and modelling studies. Here we use data from the National Soil Inventory of England and Wales obtained between 1978 and 2003 to show that carbon was lost from soils across England and Wales over the survey period at a mean rate of 0.6% yr(-1) (relative to the existing soil carbon content). We find that the relative rate of carbon loss increased with soil carbon content and was more than 2% yr(-1) in soils with carbon contents greater than 100 g kg(-1). The relationship between rate of carbon loss and carbon content is irrespective of land use, suggesting a link to climate change. Our findings indicate that losses of soil carbon in England and Wales--and by inference in other temperate regions-are likely to have been offsetting absorption of carbon by terrestrial sinks.
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“UK wide surveys recording trends in soil carbon over time (at the 0–15 cm depth) have also reported significant reductions (~6%) in soil carbon under managed fertile grasslands between 1998 and 2007 (Bellamy, Loveland, Bradley, Lark, & Kirk, 2005; Emmett et al., 2010).”
From Measured and modelled effect of land‐use change from temperate grassland to Miscanthus on soil carbon stocks after 12 years (2019) · cites this paper as Bellamy et al., 2005
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the citing paper
“In addition, there are indications (Bellamy et al., 2005;Monson et al., 2006;Luo, 2007;Arnone et al., 2008;Bond-Lamberty and Thomson, 2010;Smith and Fang, 2010;Yvon-Durocher et al., 2010;Zhao and Running, 2010) of a positive feedback in which increases in global temperature lower the ability of present soils and other parts of the biosphere to absorb CO 2”
From Breeding crop plants with deep roots: their role in sustainable carbon, nutrient and water sequestration (2011) · cites this paper as Bellamy et al., 2005
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“The first thing to note is the huge variation in the organic (carbon) content of soils -at least 15-fold in the UK alone (Bellamy et al., 2005;Bradley et al., 2005;Ostle et al., 2009).”
From Breeding crop plants with deep roots: their role in sustainable carbon, nutrient and water sequestration (2011) · cites this paper as Bellamy et al., 2005
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“The bioavailability of chemical contaminants to crops may also increase with the predicted decline in soil organic carbon content in the future (Bellamy et al. 2005).”
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“SOC during the late 20th century, in better agreement with inventory data (Bellamy et al., 2005) than the standard version, which produced a continuous SOC gain.”
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“Details of the NSI data are given by Bellamy et al. (2005).”
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Landscape scale estimation of soil carbon stock using 3D modelling
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“In any case, both NewZealand studies and an earlier European study (Bellamy et al., 2005) indicate that SOC is not inherently constant, but can be changed through changes in pasture management or environmental factors.”
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“…overlapping effects of different drivers may also explain the controversial results of SOC stock inventories performed to quantify climate change effects on SOC in European forests (Bellamy et al., 2005; Callesen et al., 2015; Grüneberg et al., 2014; Jonard et al., 2017; Prietzel et al., 2016).”
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CO2 emissions following cultivation of a temperate permanent pasture
Rutledge-Jonker, S., Mudge, P. L., Wallace, D., Campbell, D. I., Woodward, S. L., Wall, A. M., & Schipper, L. A. (2013) · Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment · doi:10.1016/j.agee.2013.11.005 · Cited by 45
Agroecological Approaches to Agricultural Development
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Baseline values and change in the soil, and implications for monitoring
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“In both cases, we will wish to account for the effect of regression to the mean (although it is not a concern in the latter instance if we are interested in the global average change of the soil variable, as was the case in the previously reported study by Bellamy et al., 2005). It would be ideal to apply Blomqvist’s…”
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Jones, D. L., Simfukwe, P., Hill, P. W., Mills, R., & Emmett, B. A. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0090882 · Cited by 45
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BackgroundSelf-citationThe influence of temporal variation on relationships between ecosystem services
Holland, R. A., Eigenbrod, F., Armsworth, P. R., Anderson, B. J., Thomas, C. D., & Gaston, K. J. (2011) · Biodiversity and Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10531-011-0113-1 · Cited by 45
“…in the provision of ecosystem goods and services have occurred in Europe in the last 50 years across broad habitat types (Harrison et al. 2010), while land use change coupled with climate change may have contributed to loss of carbon from soils in the UK (Bellamy et al. 2005; Smith et al. 2007).”
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“However, estimates of national-wide carbon pools and fluxes from repeated soil inventories or monitoring are still the exception (Bellamy et al. 2005).”
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“Most efforts use published maps of ecosystem, climate and soils (e.g. Eswaran et al. 1993 ; Post et al. 1982 ; Guo et al. 2006 ), sometimes legacy pedons are used (e.g. Kern 1994 ; Wu et al. 2003 ) and some supplement those with additional sampling (e.g. Bellamy et al. 2005 ; Bradley et al. 2005 ).”
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Orton, T. G., Pringle, M. J., Page, K., Dalal, R. C., & Bishop, T. F. A. (2014) · Geoderma · doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2014.04.016 · Cited by 43
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“For instance, Bellamy et al. (2005) reported that carbon was lost from soils across England and Wales over the survey period between 1978 and 2003 at a mean rate of 0.6% year−1 relative to the existing soil carbon content. viii. to what extent was C mineralization stimulated by the N fertilization…”
BackgroundInfluentialWakelin, S. A., Barratt, B. I. P., Gerard, E. M., Gregg, A. L., Brodie, E., Andersen, G. L., DeSantis, T. Z., Zhou, J. Z., He, Z., Kowalchuk, G. A., et al. (2012) · Soil Biology and Biochemistry · doi:10.1016/j.soilbio.2012.07.003 · Cited by 42
“Loss of carbon from grassland ecosystems, which typically hold more C in the soil than in the vegetative cover, has been identified as a major source of greenhouse gas emissions (White et al., 2000; Bellamy et al., 2005).”
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“At this stage, it appears that the soil C pool may not always be at steady-state (Schipper et al. 2010; Bellamy et al. 2005).”
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“Although a significant attempt has been made to produce detailed maps of SOC at the national level, these studies mainly focused on current 22–25 or past trends 26–28 and the potential influence of climate change on past SOC trends remains debatable 27,29 .”
Nevalainen, O., Niemitalo, O., Fer, I., Juntunen, A., Mattila, T., Koskela, O., Kukkamäki, J., Höckerstedt, L., Mäkelä, L., Jarva, P., et al. (2022) · Geoscientific instrumentation, methods and data systems · doi:10.5194/gi-11-93-2022 · Cited by 50
Organic soils in Germany, their distribution and carbon stocks
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“One suggested mechanism was the increased microbial respiration rates resulting from the higher soil temperatures associated with global warming (Bellamy et al. 2005).”
BackgroundStevens, A., & van Wesemael, B. (2008) · Soil Use and Management · doi:10.1111/j.1475-2743.2007.00135.x · Cited by 41
“Soils with high SOC content are more likely to loose carbon and soils with low SOC content are more likely to gain carbon through time, patterns to be expected, and also showed by Bellamy et al. (2005), who for all land uses found an intercept of 0.6 and a rate of change of )0.0187 g C kg)1 year)1.”
BackgroundInfluentialCole, B., Mcmorrow, J., & Evans, M. (2014) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs6010716 · Cited by 41
“The potential to sequester carbon is greatly reduced and carbon stores are rapidly lost when peat becomes exposed [12].”
Organic matter returns to soils must be higher under organic compared to conventional farming
Leithold, G., Hülsbergen, K., & Brock, C. (2014) · Journal of Plant Nutrition and Soil Science · doi:10.1002/jpln.201400133 · Cited by 41
Ishizuka, S., Sakata, T., Sawata, S., Ikeda, S., Takenaka, C., Tamai, N., Sakai, H., Shimizu, T., Kan-Na, K., Onodera, S., et al. (2006) · Annals of Forest Science · doi:10.1051/forest:2006036 · Cited by 41
Valuation of Soil Ecosystem Services
Jónsson, J. Ö. G., Davíðsdóttir, B., & Nikolaidis, Ν. P. (2016) · Advances in agronomy · doi:10.1016/bs.agron.2016.10.011 · Cited by 44
Liang, F., Li, J., Zhang, S., Gao, H., Wang, B., Shi, X., Huang, S., & Xu, M. (2018) · Geoderma · doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2018.10.033 · Cited by 42
Wang, S., Fan, J., Zhong, H., Li, Y., Zhu, H., Qiao, Y., & Zhang, H. (2018) · CATENA · doi:10.1016/j.catena.2018.10.050 · Cited by 42
Poeplau, C., Prietz, R., & Don, A. (2022) · Journal of Plant Nutrition and Soil Science · doi:10.1002/jpln.202100393 · Cited by 40
Dissolved organic matter leaching in some contrasting New Zealand pasture soils
Ghani, A., Müller, K., Dodd, M. B., & Mackay, A. D. (2010) · European Journal of Soil Science · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2389.2010.01246.x · Cited by 45
“…temperate regions have indicated that pastoral soils have, on average, lost substantial amounts of car- bon (C) and nitrogen (N) over the last 20–25 years (e.g. UK, 600 kg of SOC ha−1 year−1 (Bellamy et al., 2005); New Zealand, 1000 kg of SOC and 100 kg of SON ha−1 year−1 (Schipper et al., 2007)).”
BackgroundGranger, S. J., Bol, R. A., Butler, P. J., Haygarth, P. M., Naden, P. S., Old, G. H., Owens, P. N., & Smith, B. P. G. (2007) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/hyp.6597 · Cited by 40
“Bellamy et al. (2005) noted that the relative rate of loss of carbon from UK soils increased with soil carbon content, irrespective of land use.”
BackgroundSoil Organic Carbon and Total Nitrogen Gains in an Old Growth Deciduous Forest in Germany
Schrumpf, M., Kaiser, K., & Schulze, E. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0089364 · Cited by 40
Fukushima, M., Miura, A., Sasaki, M., & Izumo, K. (2008) · Journal of Molecular Structure · doi:10.1016/j.molstruc.2008.07.006 · Cited by 40
Macronutrient status of UK groundwater: Nitrogen, phosphorus and organic carbon
Stuart, M. E., & Lapworth, D. J. (2016) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.181 · Cited by 40
Towards a broad-based and holistic framework of Sustainable Intensification indicators
Mahon, N., Crute, I. R., Bonito, M. D., Simmons, E., & Islam, M. M. (2018) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.06.009 · Cited by 43
Qubaja, R., Grünzweig, J. M., Rotenberg, E., & Yakir, D. (2019) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14927 · Cited by 40
Soil invertebrates control peatland C fluxes in response to warming
Carrera, N., Barreal, M. E., Gallego, P. P. F., & Briones, M. J. I. (2009) · Functional Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2435.2009.01560.x · Cited by 40
Thuerig, B., Fließbach, A., Berger, N., Fuchs, J. G., Kraus, N., Mahlberg, N., Nietlispach, B., & Tamm, L. (2009) · Soil Biology and Biochemistry · doi:10.1016/j.soilbio.2009.07.028 · Cited by 40
Spencer, S., Ogle, S. M., Breidt, F. J., Goebel, J. J., & Paustian, K. H. (2011) · Greenhouse Gas Measurement and Management · doi:10.1080/20430779.2011.637696 · Cited by 40
“Terrestrial soils are a major reservoir of C at the global scale, with twice the amount of C as that found in the atmosphere (Bellamy et al, 2005 ).”
BackgroundInfluentialPredicting the Effect of Climate Change on Global Plant Productivity and the Carbon Cycle
Grace, J., & Zhang, R. (2006) · doi:10.1002/9780470988695.ch9 · Cited by 40
A review of current evidence on carbon fluxes and greenhouse gas emissions from UK peatlands
Worrall, F., Chapman, P. J., Holden, J., Evans, C., Artz, R., & Grayson, R. P. (2011) · NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) · Cited by 40
Harris, Z. M., Alberti, G., Viger, M., Jenkins, J. R., Rowe, R., McNamara, N. P., & Taylor, G. (2017) · GCB Bioenergy · doi:10.1111/gcbb.12347 · Cited by 40
Poeplau, C., & Dechow, R. (2023) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-023-34753-0 · Cited by 39
Soil bulk density and porosity connecting macro- and micro-scales through geometry.
Robinson, D. A., Friedman, S. P., Thomas, A. R. C., Hirmas, D. R., Sullivan, P., & Nemes, A. (2025) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105173 · Cited by 42
Effects of seasonal grazing on soil respiration in alpine meadow on the Tibetan plateau
Cui, S., Zhu, X., Wang, S., Zhang, Z., Xu, B., Luo, C., Zhao, L., & Zhao, X. (2014) · Soil Use and Management · doi:10.1111/sum.12125 · Cited by 39
“Thus, minor changes in the SOC pool could significantly alter atmospheric CO2 concentration and influence the global climate (Bellamy et al., 2005; Davidson & Janssens, 2006; Schipper et al., 2007; Cui & Graf, 2009).”
BackgroundEcosystem services and biodiversity in Europe
Setälä, H. M. (2009) · Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja · Cited by 39
Patton, N. R., Lohse, K. A., Seyfried, M. S., Will, R., & Benner, S. G. (2018) · Geoderma · doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2018.10.036 · Cited by 39
Leinonen, I., MacLeod, M. J., & Bell, J. (2018) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su10051473 · Cited by 39
Metadata
- Authors
- Bellamy, P. H., Loveland, P. J., Bradley, R. I., Lark, R. M., & Kirk, G. J. D.
- Affiliations
- Cranfield University (GB)
- Rothamsted Research (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Kirk, Guy J. D.
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2005-09
- Volume
- 437
- Issue
- 7056
- Pages
- 245-248
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2013840199
- Cited by
- 1,131
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 18 · 2025: 26 · 2024: 35 · 2023: 33 · 2022: 42 · 2021: 46 · 2020: 44 · 2019: 42 · 2018: 50 · 2017: 50 · 2016: 61 · 2015: 52 · 2014: 71 · 2013: 54 · 2012: 64
- FWCI
- 110.59
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Rothamsted Repository (Rothamsted Repository) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- CERES (Cranfield University) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Soil erosion and sediment transport
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Soil Geostatistics and Mapping
- Keywords
- soil carbon loss, soil carbon feedback, climate change, global carbon budget, soil carbon content, terrestrial carbon sink, England and Wales
- MeSH terms
- Carbon, Carbon Dioxide, England, Poaceae, Soil, Soil Microbiology, Temperature, Wales, Water, Linear Models, Greenhouse Effect, Ecosystem, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century
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