Global imprint of climate change on marine life
Open accessAbstract
Research that combines all available studies of biological responses to regional and global climate change shows that 81–83% of all observations were consistent with the expected impacts of climate change. These findings were replicated across taxa and oceanic basins. Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations1,2, taxonomic groups2,3,4 and/or biological responses5,6. This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available studies of the consistency of marine ecological observations with expectations under climate change. This yielded a meta-database of 1,735 marine biological responses for which either regional or global climate change was considered as a driver. Included were instances of marine taxa responding as expected, in a manner inconsistent with expectations, and taxa demonstrating no response. From this database, 81–83% of all observations for distribution, phenology, community composition, abundance, demography and calcification across taxa and ocean basins were consistent with the expected impacts of climate change. Of the species responding to climate change, rates of distribution shifts were, on average, consistent with those required to track ocean surface temperature changes. Conversely, we did not find a relationship between regional shifts in spring phenology and the seasonality of temperature. Rates of observed shifts in species’ distributions and phenology are comparable to, or greater, than those for terrestrial systems.
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Redistributions have been well documented only for fish.
“though a recent meta-analysis demonstrated that redistributions have been well documented only for fish [33].”
From Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems (2015) · cites this paper as [33]
The paper’s “Changes in phenology and distribution” section describes documented range expansions of intertidal invertebrates as well as shifts in flatfish. Its “Community composition” section also analyzes distribution-shift rates for several non-fish groups. The claim that redistributions have been well documented only for fish is therefore contrary to the paper’s account. (LLM, conf=0.88)
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Research works printed but not linked: 3
- No Yes Costello, J.H, B.K. Sullivan and D.J. Gifford. 2006. A physical-biological interaction underlying variable phenological responses to climate change by coastal zooplankton. Journal of Plankton Research 28:1099-1105 Seabirds Polar Southern Ocean 10 1950 55 0.4 No Yes Barbraud, C. and H. Weimerskirch. 2006. Antarctic birds breed later in response to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103: 6248-6251. Seabirds Polar Southern Ocean 10 1950 55
- 9 No Yes Barbraud, C. and H. Weimerskirch. 2006. Antarctic birds breed later in response to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103: 6248-6251. Seabirds Polar Southern Ocean 10 1980 25 12.6 No Yes Barbraud, C. and H. Weimerskirch. 2006. Antarctic birds breed later in response to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103: 6248-6251. Seabirds Polar Southern Ocean 10 1950 55 1.0 No Yes Barbraud, C. and H. Weimerskirch. 2006. Antarctic birds breed later in response to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103: 6248-6251. Seabirds Polar Southern Ocean 10 1950 55
- 9 No Yes Barbraud, C. and H. Weimerskirch. 2006. Antarctic birds breed later in response to climate change. Proceedings of the National
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- Authors
- Poloczanska, E. S., Brown, C. J., Sydeman, W. J., Kiessling, W., Schoeman, D. S., Moore, P. J., Brander, K., Bruno, J. F., Buckley, L. B., Burrows, M. T., Duarte, C. M., Halpern, B. S., Holding, J., Kappel, C. V., O’Connor, M. I., Pandolfi, J. M., Parmesan, C., Schwing, F., Thompson, S. A., & Richardson, A. J.
- Affiliations
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- Farallon Institute (US)
- Museum für Naturkunde (DE)
- University of the Sunshine Coast (AU)
- Edith Cowan University (AU)
- Technical University of Denmark (DK)
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- Scottish Association For Marine Science (GB)
- The University of Western Australia (AU)
- University of California, Santa Barbara (US)
- Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES)
- University of British Columbia (CA)
- The University of Queensland (AU)
- The University of Texas at Austin (US)
- NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (US)
- Corresponding author
- Poloczanska, Elvira S.
- Brown, Christopher J.
- ORCID
- Poloczanska, Elvira S.
- Brown, Christopher J.
- Sydeman, William J.
- Kiessling, Wolfgang
- Schoeman, David S.
- Moore, Pippa J.
- Brander, Keith
- Bruno, John F.
- Buckley, Lauren B.
- Burrows, Michael T.
- Duarte, Carlos M.
- Halpern, Benjamin S.
- Holding, Johnna
- Kappel, Carrie V.
- O’Connor, Mary I.
- Pandolfi, John M.
- Parmesan, Camille
- Schwing, Franklin
- Richardson, Anthony J.
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2013-08-04
- Volume
- 3
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 919-925
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- OpenAlex
- W2018291779
- Cited by
- 2,311
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 185 · 2025: 196 · 2024: 234 · 2023: 244 · 2022: 205 · 2021: 194 · 2020: 216 · 2019: 193 · 2018: 155 · 2017: 171 · 2016: 107 · 2015: 109 · 2014: 81 · 2013: 16
- FWCI
- 79.58
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) (submittedVersion)
- UWA Profiles and Research Repository (UWA) (submittedVersion)
- Research Online (Edith Cowan University) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion)
- Technical University of Denmark, DTU Orbit (Technical University of Denmark, DTU) (submittedVersion)
- Griffith Research Online (submittedVersion)
- UNC Libraries
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (0553768)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/L013029/1, NE/J024082/1, NE/J021938/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine and fisheries research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Keywords
- climate change impacts on marine organisms, range shifts, phenology, community composition, calcification, sea surface temperature, ocean warming, marine biodiversity
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