Shortfalls and opportunities in terrestrial vertebrate species discovery
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Abstract
Much of biodiversity remains undiscovered, causing species and their functions to remain unrealized and potentially lost in ignorance. Here we use extensive species-level data in a time-to-event model framework to identify taxonomic and geographic discovery gaps in terrestrial vertebrates. Biological, environmental and sociological factors all affect discovery probability and together provide strong predictive ability for species discovery. Our model identifies distinct taxonomic and geographic unevenness in future discovery potential, with greatest opportunities for amphibians and reptiles, and for Neotropical and Indo-Malayan forests. Brazil, Indonesia, Madagascar and Colombia emerge as holding greatest discovery opportunities, with a quarter of potential discoveries estimated. These findings highlight the importance of international policy support for basic taxonomic research and the potential of quantitative models to aid species discovery.
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Research effort to document crocodylian species repertoires may be disproportionately concentrated in regions where species are less threatened, due to more readily available funding.
“we acknowledge that research effort to document crocodylian species repertoires may be disproportionately concentrated in regions where species are less threatened, due to more readily available funding”
From Roars, Rumbles, and Resonance: A Systematic Review and Meta‐Analysis of Crocodylian Acoustic Signals (2026) · cites this paper as Moura and Jetz 2021
The Main Text (page unavailable) describes geographically uneven species-discovery activity and says that expertise and support for discovery are tied to nations. It does not say that crocodylian research is concentrated where species are less threatened, or that greater funding causes such a pattern. (LLM, conf=0.82)
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A global reptile assessment highlights shared conservation needs of tetrapods
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The global distribution of known and undiscovered ant biodiversity
Kass, J. M., Guénard, B., Dudley, K. L., Jenkins, C. N., Azuma, F., Fisher, B. L., Parr, C. L., Gibb, H., Longino, J. T., Ward, P. S., et al. (2022) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.abp9908 · Cited by 194 · see citing works
Self-citationMadagascar’s extraordinary biodiversity: Evolution, distribution, and use
Antonelli, A., Smith, R. J., Perrigo, A., Crottini, A., Hackel, J., Testo, W., Farooq, H. M., Jiménez, M. F. T., Andela, N., Andermann, T., et al. (2022) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abf0869 · Cited by 157 · see citing works
Pervasive gaps in Amazonian ecological research
Carvalho, R. L., de Resende, A. F., Barlow, J., França, F. M., Moura, M. R., Maciel, R., Alves‐Martins, F., Shutt, J. D., Nunes, C. A., Elias, F., et al. (2023) · Current Biology · doi:10.1016/j.cub.2023.06.077 · Cited by 153 · see citing works
Self-citationUndescribed species have higher extinction risk than known species
Liu, J., Slik, F. J. W., Zheng, S., & Lindenmayer, D. B. (2022) · Conservation Letters · doi:10.1111/conl.12876 · Cited by 141 · see citing works
How many species will Earth lose to climate change?
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Ondo, I., Dhanjal‐Adams, K. L., Pironon, S., Silvestro, D., Colli‐Silva, M., Deklerck, V., Grace, O. M., Monro, A. K., Nicolson, N., Walker, B. E., et al. (2024) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.20024 · Cited by 124 · see citing works
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Tan, W. C., Herrel, A., & Rödder, D. (2023) · Biodiversity and Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10531-022-02530-6 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
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Self-citationUndiscovered bird extinctions obscure the true magnitude of human-driven extinction waves
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Díaz, R. G. C., Nori, J., Chiappa‐Carrara, X., Peterson, A. T., Soberón, J. M., & Osorio‐Olvera, L. (2023) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110042 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
A phylogeny-informed characterisation of global tetrapod traits addresses data gaps and biases
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Self-citationFishPhyloMaker: An R package to generate phylogenies for ray-finned fishes
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Brazilian Biodiversity as a Source of Power and Sustainable Development: A Neglected Opportunity
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Patton, A. H., Harmon, L. J., Castañeda, M. D. R., Frank, H. K., Donihue, C. M., Herrel, A., & Losos, J. B. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2024451118 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
How ignoring detection probability hurts biodiversity conservation
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Ants of Brazil: an overview based on 50 years of diversity studies
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Clarke, J., Smith, A. C., & Cullingham, C. I. (2024) · Molecular Ecology · doi:10.1111/mec.17532 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
How taxonomic change influences forecasts of the Linnean shortfall (and what we can do about it)?
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Trivellone, V., Cao, Y., & Dietrich, C. H. (2022) · Biology · doi:10.3390/biology11070977 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Burgin, C. J., Zijlstra, J. S., Becker, M. A., Handika, H., Alston, J. M., Widness, J., Liphardt, S., Huckaby, D. G., & Upham, N. S. (2025) · Journal of Mammalogy · doi:10.1093/jmammal/gyaf047 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Global shortfalls of knowledge on anuran tadpoles
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Elmore, J. A., Schultz, E. A., Jones, L. R., Evans, K. O., Samiappan, S., Pfeiffer, M. B., Blackwell, B. F., & Iglay, R. B. (2023) · Environmental Evidence · doi:10.1186/s13750-022-00294-8 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Land and deep-sea mining: the challenges of comparing biodiversity impacts
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Global Patterns of Taxonomic Uncertainty and its Impacts on Biodiversity Research
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Self-citationCaught in the crossfire: biodiversity conservation paradox of sociopolitical conflict
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Harrison, K. D. (2022) · Annual Review of Linguistics · doi:10.1146/annurev-linguistics-031220-013152 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Fonteyn, D., Vermeulen, C., Gorel, A., de Miranda, P. L. S., Lhoest, S., & Fayolle, A. (2023) · Diversity and Distributions · doi:10.1111/ddi.13677 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Naming the menagerie: creativity, culture and consequences in the formation of scientific names
Heard, S. B., & Mlynarek, J. J. (2023) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2023.1970 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Rethinking Global Hotspots for Threatened Terrestrial Vertebrates
Huais, P. Y., Osorio‐Olvera, L., Cordier, J. M., Tomba, A. N., Soberón, J. M., Loyola, R. A., & Nori, J. (2024) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/geb.13942 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Nori, J., Prieto-Torres, D. A., Villalobos, F., Loyola, R. A., Rojas‐Soto, O., Parra, J. L., Lira‐Noriega, A., Ortega-Andrade, H. M., Monjeau, A. J., Fuente, S. H. L., et al. (2022) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1111/jbi.14545 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
The past and future of known biodiversity: Rates, patterns, and projections of new species over time
Li, X., Yang, D., Wang, L., & Wiens, J. J. (2025) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adz3071 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Relatively large wings facilitate life at higher elevations among Nearctic dragonflies
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Peace and the environment at the crossroads: Elections in a conflict-troubled biodiversity hotspot
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Lizards (Reptilia: Squamata) from the Caatinga, northeastern Brazil: Detailed and updated overview
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Quantifying global colonization pressures of alien vertebrates from wildlife trade
Li, Y., Blackburn, T. M., Luo, Z., Song, T., Watters, F., Li, W., Deng, T., Luo, Z., Li, Y., Du, J., et al. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-43754-6 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Carné, A., & Vieites, D. R. (2024) · Diversity and Distributions · doi:10.1111/ddi.13912 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Estimating vertebrate biodiversity using the tempo of taxonomy – a view from Hubbert’s peak
Wilkinson, B. H., Ivany, L. C., & Drummond, C. N. (2021) · Biological Journal of the Linnean Society · doi:10.1093/biolinnean/blab080 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Tracking scientific discovery of avian phylogenetic diversity over 250 years
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Burgin, C., Zijlstra, J. S., Becker, M. A., Handika, H., Alston, J. M., Widness, J., Liphardt, S. W., Huckaby, D. G., & Upham, N. S. (2025) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2025.02.27.640393 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Global knowledge gaps of herptile responses to land transformation
Nori, J., Cordier, J. M., Osorio‐Olvera, L., & Hortal, J. (2023) · Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment · doi:10.1002/fee.2625 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
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Macroecological correlates of Darwinian shortfalls across terrestrial vertebrates
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Self-citationGenetic and Ecogeographic Controls on Species Cohesion in Australia’s Most Diverse Lizard Radiation
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Guayasamin, J. M., Brunner, R. M., Valencia‐Aguilar, A., Franco-Mena, D., Ringler, E., Armijos, A. M., Morochz, C., Bustamante, L., Maynard, R. J., & Culebras, J. (2022) · PeerJ · doi:10.7717/peerj.13109 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Global sampling decline erodes science potential of natural history collections
Forbes, O., Young, A. G., & Thrall, P. H. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-64303-3 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Range restriction, climate variability and human‐related risks imperil lizards world‐wide
Chen, C., Holyoak, M., Xu, J., Caetano, G. H. D. O., & Wang, Y. (2023) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/geb.13655 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Reconstructing the origin and early evolution of the snake brain
Macrì, S., Aalto, I.-M., Allemand, R., & Di‐Poï, N. (2023) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adi6888 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Temporal trends in global reptile species descriptions over three decades
Guedes, J. J. M., de Lima, H. V. G., Mendonça, L. R., Chen-Zhao, R., Diniz‐Filho, J. A. F., & Moura, M. R. (2024) · Systematics and Biodiversity · doi:10.1080/14772000.2024.2419832 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Self-citationAnunciação, P. R., Sugai, L. S. M., Martello, F., de Carvalho, L. M. T., & Ribeiro, M. C. (2022) · Biodiversity and Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10531-022-02475-w · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Rowsey, D. M., Duya, M. R. M., Ibañez, J. C., Jansa, S. A., Rickart, E. A., & Heaney, L. R. (2022) · Journal of Mammalogy · doi:10.1093/jmammal/gyac057 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Environmental and geographical biases in plant specimen data from the Colombian Andes
Vargas, C., Bottin, M., Särkinen, T., Richardson, J. E., Raz, L., Garzón‐López, C. X., & Sánchez, A. (2022) · Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society · doi:10.1093/botlinnean/boac035 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Patterns ofGrewia(Malvaceae) diversity across geographical scales in Africa and Madagascar
Karimi, N., & Hanes, M. M. (2024) · Annals of Botany · doi:10.1093/aob/mcae009 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Challenges in estimating species' age from phylogenetic trees
del Cid, C. C., Hauffe, T., Carrillo, J. D., May, M. R., Warnock, R. C. M., & Silvestro, D. (2024) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/geb.13890 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Feitosa, R., Silva, T. S. R., Camacho, G. P., Ulysséa, M., Ladino, N., Oliveira, A. M., de Albuquerque, E. Z., Ribas, C., Schmidt, F. A., Morini, M., et al. (2023) · Royal Society Open Science · doi:10.1098/rsos.221170 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Updated list of the mammals of Costa Rica, with notes on recent taxonomic changes
Mora, J. M., & Ruedas, L. A. (2023) · Zootaxa · doi:10.11646/zootaxa.5357.4.1 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Tanalgo, K. C. (2025) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111192 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Global key areas for anuran tadpole discovery
Nori, J., Baldo, D., Pereyra, M., Grosjean, S., Dias, P. H. D. S., Müller, H., Cordier, M., Huais, P. Y., Tomba, A. N., & Candioti, F. V. (2025) · Biological Journal of the Linnean Society · doi:10.1093/biolinnean/blaf017 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Geopolitical impacts on the description of new terrestrial mollusc species
de Abreu, E. C. T., da Silva, E. L., & Moura, M. R. (2025) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2025.1428 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Self-citationAccessibility and appeal jointly bias the inventory of Neotropical freshwater fish fauna
Herrera‐R, G. A., Tedesco, P. A., DoNascimiento, C., Jezequel, C., & Giam, X. (2023) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110186 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Role of Rivers as Geographical Barriers in Shaping Molecular Divergence of Neotropical Primates
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The hidden biodiversity knowledge split in biological collections
Nakamura, G., Stabile, B. H. M., Frateles, L. E. F., Araujo, M. L., Neuhaus, E. B., Marinho, M., Leite, M. D. S., Richter, A., Ding, L., Freitas, T. M. D. S., et al. (2025) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2025.1045 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
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An Isolated and Deeply Divergent Hynobius Species from Fujian, China
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Knowledge shortfalls for titi monkey: A poorly known clade of small-bodied South American primates
Souza‐Alves, J. P., Boyle, S. A., & Barnett, A. A. (2023) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110256 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
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Prioritising challenges and actions for freshwater conservation in a tropical biodiversity hotspot
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Bredin, Y. K., Hess, L. L., Scabin, A. B., Dunthorn, M., Haugaasen, T., Peres, C. A., Nilsson, R. H., Antonelli, A., & Ritter, C. D. (2021) · Environmental DNA · doi:10.1002/edn3.268 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Dubeux, M. J. M., Neto, J. V. D. A., Tiburcio, I. C. S., Lisboa, B. S., Torquato, S., de Freitas, M. A., Freire, E. M. X., Guarnieri, M. C., & Mott, T. (2022) · Biota Neotropica · doi:10.1590/1676-0611-bn-2022-1337 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
A New Species of Abronia (Squamata: Anguidae) from the Sierra de Zongolica of Veracruz, Mexico
García‐Vázquez, U. O., Clause, A. G., Gutiérrez‐Rodríguez, J., Cazares-Hernández, E., & de la Torre‐Loranca, M. A. (2022) · Ichthyology & Herpetology · doi:10.1643/h2021051 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Reply to: Estimates of the number of undescribed species should account for sampling effort
Moura, M. R., & Jetz, W. (2024) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-024-02343-6 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Self-citationFrateles, L. E. F., da Silva, N. J., Terribile, L. C., & Diniz‐Filho, J. A. F. (2024) · Zoologica Scripta · doi:10.1111/zsc.12644 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Richness patterns in vertebrates are robust to the Linnean and Wallacean shortfalls
Faurby, S., & Sandel, B. (2025) · Ecography · doi:10.1111/ecog.07467 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Ferreira, F., Oliver, P. M., Kraus, F., Günther, R., Richards, S. J., Tjaturadi, B., Arida, E. A., Hamidy, A., Riyanto, A., Trilaksono, W., et al. (2025) · Frontiers of Biogeography · doi:10.21425/fob.18.137988 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Effects of the interaction between Linnean and Darwinian shortfalls on diversification gradients
Tavares, G. R. G., Frateles, L. E. F., & Diniz‐Filho, J. A. F. (2024) · Frontiers of Biogeography · doi:10.21425/fob.17.131169 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Huber, B. A., Szymański, H. M., & Bennett-West, A. (2024) · ZooKeys · doi:10.3897/zookeys.1214.130592 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Bogoni, J. A., Carvalho‐Rocha, V., & da Silva, P. G. (2021) · Mammal Review · doi:10.1111/mam.12279 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Turton-Hughes, S., Holmes, G., & Hassall, C. (2024) · Cambridge Prisms Extinction · doi:10.1017/ext.2024.21 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
A Computer Vision Method for Finding Mislabelled Specimens Within Natural History Collections
Hollister, J. D., Martin, G., Cai, X., Horton, T., Powell, O., Sterling, M. J., Turnbull, G., Price, B. W., & Fenberg, P. B. (2025) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.71648 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
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- Authors
- Moura, M. R., & Jetz, W.
- Affiliations
- Universidade Federal da Paraíba (BR)
- Yale University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Moura, Mario R.
- Jetz, Walter
- Venue
- Nature Ecology & Evolution
- Published
- 2021-03-22
- Volume
- 5
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 631-639
- ISSN
- 2397-334X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3137801091
- Cited by
- 196
- References
- 104
- Citations by year
- 2026: 36 · 2025: 46 · 2024: 43 · 2023: 38 · 2022: 25 · 2021: 7 · 2018: 1
- FWCI
- 11.16
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature Ecology & Evolution (publishedVersion)
- bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (NSF grant DEB-1441737)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC17K0282, 80NSSC18K0435)
- E. O. Wilson Biodiversity Foundation, Half-Earth Project
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Amphibian and Reptile Biology
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Evolution and Paleontology Studies
- Keywords
- species discovery, terrestrial vertebrates, biodiversity, amphibians, reptiles, survival models, discovery probability, Neotropical forests, taxonomic research, conservation
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, Madagascar, Vertebrates
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