The DOI matches its Crossref record; 119 of the 119 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 99 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.
Autism as a disorder of prediction
Open accessAbstract
Significance: Autism is characterized by diverse behavioral traits. Guided by theoretical considerations and empirical data, this paper develops the hypothesis that many of autism's salient traits may be manifestations of an underlying impairment in predictive abilities. This impairment renders an otherwise orderly world to be experienced as a capriciously “magical” one. The hypothesis elucidates the information-processing roots of autism and, thereby, can aid the identification of neural structures likely to be differentially affected. Behavioral and neural measures of prediction might serve as early assays of predictive abilities in infants, and serve as useful tools in intervention design and in monitoring their effectiveness. The hypothesis also points to avenues for further research to determine molecular and circuit-level causal underpinnings of predictive impairments.
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Claims the paper makes
47 Not checked yet · 34 Own interpretation · 2 No basis given
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The underlying domains all constitute temporally unfolding Markov systems, with progressions from one state to another governed by probabilistic links (Fig. 1 A ).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [3] source
- Not checked yetcites [4] source
- Not checked yetcites [5] source
- Not checked yetcites [6] source
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- Not checked yetcites [11] source
- Not checked yetcites [12] source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As a consequence of this shift, several relationships that are evident to a neurotypical individual would become undetectable to a person with autism.”
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“It is estimated that more than one-third of all individuals on the autism spectrum display some form of IoS (14).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [14] source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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In the paper
“Insistence on sameness (IoS) is a hallmark feature of autism.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [15] source
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Predictability is a fundamental modulator of anxiety in that reduction in the ability to predict events, even without any associated aversive consequence, enhances anxious responses (21, 22).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [21] Abbott BB, Badia P (1986) Predictable versus unpredictable shock conditions and physiological measures of stress: A reply to Arthur. Psychol Bull 100:384 -387. source
- Not checked yetcites [22] Herry C, et al. (2007) Processing of temporal unpredictability in human and animal amygdala. J Neurosci 27(22):5958 -5966. source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Past research with diverse populations has shown that environmental unpredictability is strongly correlated with anxiety (16 -20).”
What the sources say
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“These hypersensitivities cannot be explained as outcomes of abnormally enhanced sensation (29 -31).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [29] DePape A-MR, Hall GBC, Tillmann B, Trainor LJ (2012) Auditory processing in highfunctioning adolescents with autism spectrum disorder. PLoS ONE 7(9):e44084. source
- Not checked yetcites [30] Bölte S, et al. (2012) A close eye on the eagle-eyed visual acuity hypothesis of autism. J Autism Dev Disord 42(5):726 -733. source
- Not checked yetcites [31] Ashwin E, Ashwin C, Rhydderch D, Howells J, Baron-Cohen S (2009) Eagle-eyed visual acuity: An experimental investigation of enhanced perception in autism. Biol Psychiatry 65(1):17 -21. source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“suggesting that stimming may be an anxiolytic response to a chaotic world: an attempt to drown out the influx of unpredictable environmental information by self-generated periodic and, hence, more predictable information.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A direct corollary is that reduced habituation reduces stimulus suppression.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Rests on an assumption: Habituation suppresses sustained stimulation.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Studies with neurologically healthy humans and animals reveal that the ritualistic behaviors that emerge under conditions of unpredictability serve as a calming response to an externally imposed stressor (25, 26).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [25] Maier NRF (1939) Studies of Abnormal Behavior in the Rat (Harper, New York).
- Not checked yetcites [26] Eilam D, Izhar R, Mort J (2011) Threat detection: Behavioral practices in animals and humans. Neurosci Biobehav Rev 35(4):999 -1006. source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Probably not a substantial claim. 14
- It may state two separate claims as one. 14
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we describe how theoretical considerations and a review of empirical data lead to the hypothesis that some salient aspects of the autism phenotype may be manifestations of an underlying impairment in predictive abilities.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The hypothesis of predictive impairment in autism (PIA) posits that autism may be associated with inaccuracies in estimating the P (B j A, Δ t ) conditional probability.”
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“To perform well in these domains, one necessarily needs to estimate the underlying Markov system, i.e., the matrix of interstate transition probabilities.”
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A reduction in one ' s predictive ability would, in this space, manifest as a shift of the ASF toward the upper left.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“from an observed temporal sequence, the brain has to estimate the conditional probability P (B j A, Δ t )”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“It is estimated that nearly 90% of all children on the autism spectrum suffer from sensory abnormalities, often hypersensitivities, to stimuli that a neurotypical individual could easily ignore (28).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [28] Leekam SR, Nieto C, Libby SJ, Wing L, Gould J (2007) Describing the sensory abnormalities of children and adults with autism. J Autism Dev Disord 37(5):894 -910. source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Taken together, these results suggest that rituals and an insistence on sameness may be a consequence of, and a way to mitigate, anxiety arising out of unpredictability.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“a parsimonious interpretation of the reliance on rituals and stimming behaviors observed in autism is that they emerge from, and represent attempts to minimize, the consequences of unpredictability.”
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“A key determinant of habituation is stimulus predictability. For typically developing subjects, predictability of a sequence is directly proportional to the extent of habituation it induces (22, 34 -36).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [22] Herry C, et al. (2007) Processing of temporal unpredictability in human and animal amygdala. J Neurosci 27(22):5958 -5966. source
- Not checked yetcites [34] Sokolov EN (1960) The Central Nervous System and Behavior III (Macy Foundation, New York).
- Not checked yetcites [35] McDaniel JW (1964) The effects of stimulus predictability upon auditory habituation and acquisition. Dissertation (Texas Technical College, Lubbock, TX).
- Not checked yetcites [36] Turk-Browne NB, Scholl BJ, Chun MM (2008) Babies and brains: Habituation in infant cognition and functional neuroimaging. Front Hum Neurosci 2:16.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Computational systems for dynamic object tracking rely on predictive techniques such as Kalman filtering (46). These systems demonstrate that a key consequence of impaired prediction is errors in online position estimation.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [46] Welch G, Bishop G (2001) An introduction to the Kalman Filter. Proc SIGGRAPH 2001 (Association for Computing Machinery, Los Angeles), pp 19 -24.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Reduction in discerning predictive relationships between events in a stimulus sequence would reduce a person ' s ability to predict the onset of the next event. Such a lack of predictability would compromise habituation and lead to hypersensitivity.”
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Habituation suppresses sustained stimulation.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Theory of mind requires the ability to ascribe invisible causes to observations about a person by connecting past history with current behavior.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the PIA hypothesis suggests that an endogenous predictive impairment causes environmental stimuli to appear more chaotic, leading to reduced habituation and hence greater stress.”
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Habituation suppresses sustained stimulation.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Several studies have demonstrated that unpredictability of stressors is one of the key aspects of torture and leads to the development of anxiety, fear, and aversion (19, 37).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [19] source
- Not checked yetcites [37] Bas ¸o glu M, Mineka S (1992) The role of uncontrollable and unpredictable stress in posttraumatic stress responses in torture survivors. Torture and Its Consequences: Current Treatment Approaches (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK), pp 185 -255.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If the prediction systems of the brain are differentially affected in autism, then one can expect that the skills left largely untouched would be the ones that are deterministic and where good performance does not depend on estimates of temporally unfolding conditional probabilities.”
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Hyperarousal of these structures would, in turn, be expected to lead to hypermalleability of learning; current exposure would have disproportionate weight and supersede earlier experience, constituting a kind of ' hyperplasticity. '”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most of them, especially mathematics calendar calculations and music, are strongly rule-based, and, thus, minimize uncertainty of outcomes. Furthermore, with the exception of music, they are static, thereby obviating the need for prediction over time.”
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“More recent studies (84, 85) have also documented these observations.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [84] Lyons V, Fitzgerald M (2004) Humor in autism and Asperger syndrome. J Autism Dev Disord 34(5):521 -531. source
- Not checked yetcites [85] Samson AC, Huber O, Ruch W (2013) Seven decades after Hans Asperger ' s observations: A comprehensive study of humor in individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorders. Humor 26:441 -460. source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“In describing his patients, Hans Asperger had noted that ' an essential characteristic of these children is their humorlessness. They do not understand jokes . . . ' (83).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [83] Asperger H (1944) Die ' Autistischen Psychopathen ' im Kindesalter. Eur Arch Psychiatry Clin Neurosci 117:76 -136.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, the notion of core impairments, shared by most cases of autism, seems to be at odds with the heterogeneity of the phenotype.”
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Based on theoretical considerations and a review of past literature, we believe that predictive impairment may constitute an endophenotype shared across individuals.”
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The quote only partly states this claim.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Autism can have many etiologies, and yet, there is some commonality across manifestations, hence a shared clinical diagnosis.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [98] Tager-Flusberg H, Joseph RM (2003) Identifying neurocognitive phenotypes in autism. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 358(1430):303 -314. source
- Not checked yetcites [99] Losh M, Childress D, Lam K, Piven J (2008) Defining key features of the broad autism phenotype: A comparison across parents of multiple- and single-incidence autism families. Am J Med Genet B Neuropsychiatr Genet 147B(4):424 -433. source
- Not checked yetcites [100] Jones W, Klin A (2009) Heterogeneity and homogeneity across the autism spectrum: The role of development. J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry 48(5):471 -473. source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Such parametric differences may help account for the phenotypic variability observed across individuals on the autism spectrum and also potentially provide the basis for a principled taxonomy of different autism subtypes.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: unclear — It is unclear whether it could be checked against evidence.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although it is certainly possible that the different autistic traits have different etiologies, what is appealing about the PIA hypothesis is its parsimony -an account that is able to provide a unifying explanation for not just a single trait, but for several of them.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
In the paper
“Motor difficulties are believed to arise from abnormalities in the cerebellum (106).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [106] Mostofsky SH, et al. (2009) Decreased connectivity and cerebellar activity in autism during motor task performance. Brain 132(Pt 9):2413 -2425. source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Explanatory accounts have indeed been offered for each of the autistic traits we have described in Sections 2 and 3 .”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [102] Takeuchi M, Harada M, Nishitani H (2002) Deficiency of ' theory of mind ' in autism estimated by fMRI. Int Congr Ser 1232:737 -740. source
- Not checked yetcites [103] Gallese V, Goldman A (1998) Mirror neurons and the simulation theory of mindreading. Trends Cogn Sci 2(12):493 -501. source
- Not checked yetcites [104] Hadjikhani N (2007) Mirror neuron system and autism Progress in Autism Research , ed Carlisle PC, (Nova Science Publishers, Happauge, NY), pp 151 -166.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“For instance, difficulties in Theory of Mind have been suggested as arising from abnormalities of the cortical substrates for social cognition (102) or in the mirror neuron system (refs. 103 and 104 but see 105).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [102] Takeuchi M, Harada M, Nishitani H (2002) Deficiency of ' theory of mind ' in autism estimated by fMRI. Int Congr Ser 1232:737 -740. source
- Not checked yetcites [103] Gallese V, Goldman A (1998) Mirror neurons and the simulation theory of mindreading. Trends Cogn Sci 2(12):493 -501. source
- Not checked yetcites [104] Hadjikhani N (2007) Mirror neuron system and autism Progress in Autism Research , ed Carlisle PC, (Nova Science Publishers, Happauge, NY), pp 151 -166.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
Autism has multiple causes.
“Autism likely owes its genesis to a multiplicity of causes.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Habituation suppresses sustained stimulation.
“A key role in suppressing sustained stimulation is played by our ability to habituate.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“There may be important differences in neurobiological, emotional and cognitive responses to stressors for autistic people, which warrant tailored anxiety models, assessments and interventions [24].”
From Autistic Cognition: Charting Routes to Anxiety (2021) · cites this paper as [24]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“with autism even being cast as a 'disorder of prediction' [136].”
From How Do Expectations Shape Perception? (2018) · cites this paper as [136]
In the citing paper
“In the elaboration of the Bayesian brain hypothesis of ASD (2) and subsequent theoretical papers (3, 4, 97–99), results from numerous earlier cognitive and psychophysical studies were re-interpreted post hoc in the novel framework.”
From Can Bayesian Theories of Autism Spectrum Disorder Help Improve Clinical Practice? (2016) · cites this paper as [99]
In the citing paper
“A theory of ASD that is rapidly gaining credibility is the notion that individuals with ASD do not have a robust historical representation of the world. This lack of a probabilistic “map” of the world makes it difficult for those with ASD to predict upcoming events, and this lack of predictive coding thus limits interactions with the external environment (Pellicano and Burr, 2012; Sinha et al., 2”
From Behavioral, Perceptual, and Neural Alterations in Sensory and Multisensory Function in Autism Spectrum Disorder (2015) · cites this paper as Sinha et al., 2014
Citations
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Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction
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Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction
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A neural substrate of prediction and reward
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(1943) · The Nervous child · Cited by 8,870
Does the autistic child have a “theory of mind” ?
Baron-Cohen, S., Leslie, A. M., & Frith, U. (1985) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/0010-0277(85)90022-8 · Cited by 8,599
Lord, C., Risi, S., Lambrecht, L., Cook, E. H., Leventhal, B. L., DiLavore, P. C., Pickles, A., & Rutter, M. (2000) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1023/a:1005592401947 · Cited by 7,520
Whatever next? Predictive brains, situated agents, and the future of cognitive science
Clark, A. (2013) · Behavioral and Brain Sciences · doi:10.1017/s0140525x12000477 · Cited by 5,924 · cited 1×
“This program of research can build on the exciting body of recent work that has been investigating the prediction and reward machinery in the neurotypical brain, both in humans and other animals (108).”
Background
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- G Welch G Bishop An introduction to the Kalman Filter. Proc SIGGRAPH 2001 (Association for Computing Machinery Los Angeles) pp 19–24. (2001).
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Sorted by citations
Items 501–560 of 560
Study of Dysfunction in the Neural Systems in Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Review Article
Voiţă-Mekereş, F., Galea-Holhoș, L. B., Mekereș, G. M., & Parvan, R. (2023) · International Journal Of Pharmaceutical Research And Allied Sciences · doi:10.51847/gnepvy5yix
“This area must be active in order to forecast the temporal encoding of others' conduct [51], and improper activity in ASD makes it difficult to predict others' future behavior based on their past behavior, which is consistent with the recently proposed theory of poor temporal prediction in ASD [52].”
Cooper, C., & Meso, A. I. (2023) · European Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1111/ejn.16169
“Schizophrenia and autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are common heterogeneous conditions that have historically been considered distinct.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialAtypical sensory perception in autism from the perspective of Bayesian framework
Cui, K., Luo, F., & Wang, J. (2023) · Chinese Science Bulletin (Chinese Version) · doi:10.1360/tb-2023-0939
Visuo-motor updating in individuals with heightened autistic traitsPreprint
Pomè, A., & Zimmermann, E. (2023) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2023.12.19.572419
A Review of Statistical Learning and Developmental Disorders
Yue, Y. (2024) · Lecture Notes in Education Psychology and Public Media · doi:10.54254/2753-7048/37/20240536
“The core deficit of social communication in the ASD group also manifests itself as difficulty in dealing with speech (e.g., human voice) rather than pure tones or computer noise [40-42].”
BackgroundVisuo-motor updating in autism symptomatologyPreprint
Pomè, A., & Zimmermann, E. (2024) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.94946.1
Predictive coding deficits in autism: Abnormalities in feedback or feedforward connectivities?
Wei, J. I. N. G., Qi, C. H. E. N., Yun Qing, X. U. E., Miao, Y. A. N. G., & ZHANG, J. (2024) · Advances in Psychological Science · doi:10.3724/sp.j.1042.2024.00813
Tan, E. M. Y. (2024) · EPRA International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research (IJMR) · doi:10.36713/epra16244
Fu, C., Aixin, L., Xiaokang, L., & Chongying, W. (2024) · Advances in Psychological Science · doi:10.3724/sp.j.1042.2024.01164
Visuo-motor updating in individuals with heightened autistic traitsPreprint
Pomè, A., & Zimmermann, E. (2024) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.94946.2
Global Prakash: Envisioning a Multi-national Collaboration to Advance Science and Service in Vision
Sinha, P. (2024) · Essentials in ophthalmology/Essentials ophthalmology · doi:10.1007/978-981-99-4436-1_14
Self-citationPeleg, Y., Binya, Y. B., & Foley, G. M. (2024) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-27366-7.00004-3
Anticipation in Young Children with ASD from Birth to 24 Months: A Concise Systematic Review
Plusquellec, A., & Vandromme, L. (2024) · Review Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s40489-024-00485-8
The role of torso stiffness and prediction in the biomechanics of anxiety: a narrative review
Chin, S. (2024) · Frontiers in Sports and Active Living · doi:10.3389/fspor.2024.1487862 · Cited by 1
“Due to errors in prediction (97) with de fi cits in IOR, people with autism may have signi fi cant torso tightness (44, 45) from lowered predictability and perceptions of unexpectedness (46) in challenging environments, and may feel worse during actions including gait and language which would get in…”
Puce, L., Żmijewski, P., Bragazzi, N. L., & Trompetto, C. (2024) · Life · doi:10.3390/life14121623
Global to local influences on temporal expectation in marmosets and humans
Dragoi, T., 杉原, 弘., Le, N. M., Adam, E. M., Sharma, J., Feng, G., Desimone, R., & Sur, M. (2025) · Current Biology · doi:10.1016/j.cub.2025.01.052
Huettig, F. (2025) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009245470.031
Inferences about Others and Their Mental States
Huettig, F. (2025) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009245470.012
Hua, Z., Li, T., Shi, R., Wei, R., & Yi, L. (2025) · Molecular Autism · doi:10.1186/s13229-025-00674-0 · Cited by 1
“Similarly, restricted and repetitive patterns of behavior may represent another compensatory strategy for navigating an environment that appears unpredictable due to reduced prediction efficiency [3, 22, 23].”
InfluentialDa, F., Ma, Y., Wang, W., Li, W., Guo, Q., & Wang, T. (2025) · Behavioral Sciences · doi:10.3390/bs15111520
Yang, X., Zhan, L., & Wang, Y. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-23993-x
Additional file 1 of Prediction learning in adults with autism and its molecular correlates
Sapey‐Triomphe, L., Temmerman, J., Puts, N. A. J., & Wagemans, J. P. (2021) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.16755911
Kuo, H.-Y., & Liu, F. (2020) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.12380894
Pierce, S., Kadlaskar, G., Edmondson, D. A., Keehn, R. M., Dydak, U., & Keehn, B. (2021) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.13534348
Piccardi, E. S., Ali, J. B., Jones, E. J. H., Mason, L., Charman, T., Johnson, M. H., & Gliga, T. (2021) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.13515637
Predictable events enhance word learning in toddlersPreprint
Saffran, J. R., & Benitez, V. L. (2018) · OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints)
Sagili, S. R., Vinoth, B., Ohmshankar, S., Yuvaraj, V., Smitha Vas, P., & Keerthana, N. V. (2025) · International Conference on Sustainable Communication Networks and Application (ICSCNA) · doi:10.1109/icscn67106.2025.11308202
“Recently, the MLP, which is an artificial neural network of the feedforward type, has become popular due to its capability to represent multiple non-linear relationships in medical datasets [5].”
Data from three experiments on auditory attention and distraction in autistic and nonautistic adults
Alikadic, L., & Röer, J. P. (2026) · Data in Brief · doi:10.1016/j.dib.2025.112431
“…is processed to some extent, whether you try to ignore it or not (e.g. [ 6–8 ]) Autistic and nonautistic individuals differ in the ability to filter relevant and irrelevant auditory information, which is both of practical and theoretical relevance (e.g. [ 9 , 10 ]; for an overview, see [ 11 ]).”
Differences in causal reasoning in preschool-aged children with and without autism
Wang, T. L., Carver, L. J., & Walker, C. M. (2026) · Child Development · doi:10.1093/chidev/aacaf040 · Cited by 1
Reduced Habituation: A Key to Understanding Sensory Sensitivity in Autism
Tarantino, V., Santostefano, A., Catania, A., Giordano, S., Montalto, G., Calistro, F., Oliveri, M., & Turriziani, P. (2026) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s10803-026-07241-3
Why Music Matters: Music-Listening Functions and Motives in Autistic and Non-autistic Adults
Li, J., Ong, J. H., Bernotaite, Z., Sujawal, M., & Liu, F. (2026) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s10803-026-07319-y
Autism-associated learning patterns show reduced credit assignment to outcome-irrelevant features
Ben-Artzi, I., Rozenkrantz, L., & Shahar, N. (2026) · Translational Psychiatry · doi:10.1038/s41398-026-04000-x · Cited by 1
Autisme et cervelet : le gradient des ions chlorures en question
Roux, S. (2018) · theses.fr (ABES) · doi:10.70675/a6f075d7ze2f7z4136z8b39zdeb288b0b7a3
Marqueurs de développement de l'attention exécutive chez l'enfant d'âge préscolaire
Anquetil, M. (2023) · theses.fr (ABES) · doi:10.70675/25e00a02z4bd8z433dzbaabzf50530808cab
Socio-communicative and nucleus accumbens core dysfunctions in fragile X syndrome
Giua, G. (2023) · theses.fr (ABES) · doi:10.70675/e45d048ez2538z4905zba74z1de16201406a
Regulating Together: perspectives on improving emotion regulation in autistic youth
Sarawgi, S., Kang, S., Schmitt, L. M., Reisinger, D. L., Ruberg, J. R., & Shaffer, R. C. (2026) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2026.1784591
“Autistic youth may utilize these scripted structures and plans more readily as they provide predictability and certainty, which autistic youth often seek out (16, 18).”
Alikadic, L., & Röer, J. P. (2026) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-9447894/v1
Limburg, R., Kopp, M., Zhou, X.-Z., Ghorbani, F., Roessner, V., Hommel, B., Beste, C., & Prochnow, A. (2026) · NeuroImage: Clinical · doi:10.1016/j.nicl.2026.103998
“Such impaired prediction may explain both context-inappropriate responses and the strict adherence to routines in ASD, as routines ease the anticipation of upcoming events and foster a sense of control (Gomot and Wicker, 2012; Sinha et al., 2014).”
Roos, M., Storm, H., Zimmer, L., & Schuwerk, T. (2026) · Autism · doi:10.1177/13623613261443728
“…sensory and social input (Bolis et al., 2017; Pellicano & Burr, 2012) and precision weighting theories (Van de Cruys et al., 2014), while Factor 2 items reflect temporal prediction difficulties (Sinha et al., 2014) and overly precise sensitivity to prediction errors (Van de Cruys et al., 2014).”
Varghese, S., Carlson, E., & Alluri, V. (2026) · Psychology of Music · doi:10.1177/03057356261429810
Norrman, H. N., Huang, Y.-T., Westeinde, A. V., van Leeuwen, T. V., Fransson, P., Bölte, S., & Neufeld, J. (2026) · Biological Psychiatry Global Open Science · doi:10.1016/j.bpsgos.2026.100760 · Cited by 1
“Meanwhile, in autism, prediction-related alterations have been hypothesized in the ACC (3,4,14), insula (4), basal ganglia (14), and cerebellum (14).”
Learning Where to Look: Spatial Prior Acquisition in Autism Spectrum Disorder
Rengarajan, S., Pan, S., & Chukoskie, L. (2026) · ACM Symposium on Eye Tracking Research and Applications (ETRA) · doi:10.1145/3797246.3805858
“Joint attention, turn-taking, and gaze-based social reciprocity all depend on the ability to form and hold a spatial prior for where another person’s face or hands are likely to be [Keehn et al. 2013; Sinha et al. 2014].”
InfluentialAttenuated adaptive growth of interpersonal synchrony in autismPreprint
Kwon, J., & Kotani, H. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.06.02.729457
“The flatter trajectory in mixed-neurotype dyads is consistent with accounts of altered social predictive coding in autism (Cannon et al., 2021; Lawson et al., 2017; Pellicano and Burr, 2012; Sinha et al., 2014).”
Grief and the Limits of Possibility
Hughes, E., & Millar, B. (2026) · Hypatia · doi:10.1017/hyp.2026.10091
Wang, Y., Hu, Y., Jiang, J., Chai, S., Jiang, X., Zhao, X., Ma, Y., He, J., Ying, F., & Yao, C. (2026) · ACM International Conference on Interaction Design and Children (IDC) · doi:10.1145/3773077.3806108
“Autistic children often express a preference for predictable, organized environments, as high ambiguity can lead to sensory and cognitive overwhelm [48, 85].”
Yin, T., Qin, S., Zhang, Y., Wang, J., Xu, L., Han, X., Hu, X., Wang, Y., Sun, M., Qu, L., et al. (2026) · Journal of Speech Language and Hearing Research · doi:10.1044/2026_jslhr-25-00845
Intact Visual Correlation Detection in Autistic Adults
Vogelsang, L., Vogelsang, M., Li, C. E., Kjelgaard, M., Cardinaux, A. L., Nelson, C. A., & Sinha, P. (2026) · Autism Research · doi:10.1002/aur.70339
“These observations align with previous theoretical proposals that differences in temporal prediction may account for several core characteristics of the autism phenotype (Lawson et al. 2014; Pellicano and Burr 2012; Sinha et al. 2014; Van de Cruys et al. 2014).”
Self-citationCoccurello, R. (2026) · European Journal of Pharmacology · doi:10.1016/j.ejphar.2026.179276
Li, S., & Chen, L. (2026) · Research in Autism · doi:10.1016/j.reia.2026.202996
Cakar, M. E., Cummings, K. K., Bookheimer, S. Y., Dapretto, M., & Green, S. A. (2026) · Autism Research · doi:10.1002/aur.70313
“Prediction models are hypothesized to develop atypically in autism (Merchie and Gomot 2023; Sinha et al. 2014) and youth on the autism spectrum show altered neural habituation (Green et al. 2015, 2019).”
Garoli, A., & Alessandro, G. (2026) · ALPHA PSYCHIATRY · doi:10.31083/ap53282
“Because these networks rely on precise spike-timing-dependent plasticity and oscillatory synchronization, they are particularly vulnerable to disturbances in neural timing and connectivity during early development [13].”
Generative Constraint: How Baroque Musical Structures Scaffold Creativity in Neurodiverse Learners
NALÇACI, S. S., & Tuncer, K. A. (2026) · Journal of Intelligence · doi:10.3390/jintelligence14090217
“Influential accounts characterise autism partly in terms of how prediction operates, describing difficulty in extracting reliable regularities from a noisy environment, so that a predictable, structured setting reduces the burden of uncertainty (Sinha et al., 2014; Van de Cruys et al., 2014).”
Reduced Motor Preparation and Altered EEG Signatures of Prediction in Autistic Adults
Bagheri, S., Cardinaux, A. L., Bungert, L., Li, C. E., O’Brien, A. M., Sinha, P., & Cannon, J. J. (2026) · European Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1111/ejn.70673 · Cited by 1
“…is less flexible and context-dependent in autism (Lawson et al. 2014; Van de Cruys et al. 2014); and one, formulated by this lab, hypothesizes autistic individuals have trouble detecting predictive relationships that are weak and/or connect events over longer intervals of time (Sinha et al. 2014).”
Self-citationHoppstock, P., Foerster, E., Schauer, N., Berger, M., Fiebig, N., Mossaheb, N., Baumgartner, J. S., & Friedrich, F. (2026) · Neuropsychiatrie · doi:10.1007/s40211-026-00595-1
Leisman, G., & Melillo, R. J. (2026) · Journal of Integrative Neuroscience · doi:10.31083/jin54429
Multi-agent game theory for precision psychiatry
Chen, Z. S. (2026) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2026.1963963
“Core dif fi culties associated with ASD in childhood and adolescence involve impaired reciprocity, joint attention, prediction of others, social motivation, and fl exible adaptation (61, 62).”
Language and communication in social cognition
Votinov, M. (2026) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-34080-2.00003-2
Neuroscience-informed psychoeducation for stuttering and other speech disorders
SheikhBahaei, S., Bakhtiar, M., Marchoubeh, M. L., & Maguire, G. A. (2026) · Progress in brain research · doi:10.1016/bs.pbr.2026.09.012
Metadata
- Authors
- Sinha, P., Kjelgaard, M. M., Gandhi, T. K., Tsourides, K., Cardinaux, A. L., Pantazis, D., Diamond, S. P., & Held, R. M.
- Affiliations
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- MGH Institute of Health Professions (US)
- Defence Institute of Physiology and Allied Sciences (IN)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2014-10-06
- Volume
- 111
- Issue
- 42
- Pages
- 15220-15225
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC4210351
- OpenAlex
- W2088415689
- Cited by
- 563
- References
- 119
- Citations by year
- 2026: 43 · 2025: 47 · 2024: 48 · 2023: 67 · 2022: 47 · 2021: 79 · 2020: 56 · 2019: 41 · 2018: 38 · 2017: 40 · 2016: 36 · 2015: 20
- FWCI
- 17.70
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Autism Spectrum Disorder Research
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Developmental and Educational Psychology › Child and Animal Learning Development
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Action Observation and Synchronization
- Keywords
- autism spectrum disorder, prediction, predictive processing, autism phenotype, theory of mind, social cognition, diagnostic biomarkers, autism treatment
- MeSH terms
- Autistic Disorder, Basal Ganglia, Cerebellum, Cognition, Corpus Striatum, Humans, Infant, Language, Markov Chains, Models, Theoretical, Neuronal Plasticity, Phenotype, Probability, Social Behavior, Time Factors
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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