Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050
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Significance: Urban density significantly impacts urban energy use and the quality of life of urban residents. Here, we provide a global-scale analysis of future urban densities and associated energy use in the built environment under different urbanization scenarios. The relative importance of urban density and energy-efficient technologies varies geographically. In developing regions, urban density tends to be the more critical factor in building energy use. Large-scale retrofitting of building stock later rather than sooner results in more energy savings by the middle of the century. Reducing building energy use, improving the local environment, and mitigating climate change can be achieved through systemic efforts that take potential co-benefits and trade-offs of both higher urban density and building energy efficiency into account.
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Although urban dwellers have less floor space per person than rural dwellers, the ongoing transition of humanity to cities is not enough to counterbalance the overall trend of increasing per capita floor area.
“Although urban dwellers have less floor space per person than rural dwellers [50,51], the ongoing transition of humanity to cities is not enough to counterbalance the overall trend of increasing per capita floor area.”
From Material efficiency strategies to reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with buildings, vehicles, and electronics—a review (2019) · cites this paper as [50]
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- Authors
- Güneralp, B., Zhou, Y., Ürge-Vorsatz, D., Gupta, M., Yu, S., Patel, P. L., Fragkias, M., Li, X., & Seto, K. C.
- Affiliations
- Texas A&M University (US)
- Iowa State University (US)
- Centre for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy, Central European University, 1051 Budapest, Hungary;
- Central European University (AT)
- Joint Global Change Research Institute (US)
- Boise State University (US)
- Yale University (US)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2017-01-09
- Volume
- 114
- Issue
- 34
- Pages
- 8945-8950
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC5576775
- OpenAlex
- W2570837382
- Cited by
- 543
- References
- 46
- Citations by year
- 2026: 52 · 2025: 65 · 2024: 57 · 2023: 47 · 2022: 75 · 2021: 58 · 2020: 56 · 2019: 39 · 2018: 82 · 2017: 11
- FWCI
- 48.05
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences OpenIR (Chinese Academy of Sciences) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Greater South Information System
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy (DE-AC05-76RL01830)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Building and Construction › Building Energy and Comfort Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Building and Construction › Building energy efficiency and sustainability
- Keywords
- urban density, building energy consumption, urbanization, heating and cooling energy, energy scenarios, building retrofit, energy efficiency, urban form, climate change mitigation, China, Asia, developing cities
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