Cited by 69Pleistocene-Era Hominins and ArchaeologyArchaeology and ancient environmental studiesWater management and technologies

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 62 of the 64 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 3 of the 68 sources its claims cite were checked for support.

Humans, water, and the colonization of Australia

Open access
Bird, Michael I., O’Grady, Damien, Ulm, Sean·2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Abstract

Significance: Australia is the driest inhabited continent on earth, but humans dispersed rapidly through much of the arid continental interior after their arrival more than 47,000 y ago. The distribution and connectedness of water across the continent, and particularly in its arid core, played a pivotal role in facilitating and focusing early human dispersal throughout the continent. We analyze the distribution and connectedness of modern permanent water across Australia. The modelled least-cost pathways between permanent water sources indicate that the observed rapid occupation of the continental interior was possible along multiple, well-watered routes and likely was driven by the depletion of high-ranked resources in each newly occupied area over time.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

The paper uses modern water distribution and least-cost connectivity to argue that early human dispersal across Pleistocene Australia was focused along well-watered routes, especially through the eastern semiarid and arid interior. It finds that most archaeological sites older than 30,000 y are close to modern permanent water, supporting water availability as a primary constraint and corridor for colonization.

Key findings

  • Across 112,786 natural water points, permanent water is widely but unevenly distributed, with high directed landscape connectivity during wet periods.
  • 84% of archaeological sites >30,000 y old (46 of 55) are within 20 km of modern permanent water, and all are <40 km; excluding four Willandra Lakes sites now >50 km from water due to Lachlan River avulsion.
  • Younger sites (<30,000 y) are less tightly associated with water: 65% of 1,049 sites are <20 km and 20% are >40 km from modern permanent water.
  • Multiple well-watered routes into the interior were available; a strictly coastal route from the northwest to the south and east would be at least five times longer than an overland route across the north and south through Queensland. About 818,000 km² (~11% of mainland Australia), mostly central and western, is >50 km from permanent water, making immediate continent-wide dispersal unlikely.

Methods

  • Used the Water Observations from Space (WOfS) dataset from Landsat-5 and Landsat-7 imagery (30-m resolution, imagery from 1987 onward), filtered to >90% observed water, plus Geofabric water features such as springs, gnammas, native wells, pools, rockholes, soaks, and waterholes; merged at 1-minute (~1,850 m) resolution.
  • Built a cost surface using Tobler’s Hiking Function and a 1-second SRTM-derived digital elevation model, then traced least-cost routes with GRASS GIS r.watershed using a 100-pixel (~350 km²) basin size.
  • Compared spatial results with the Austarch database: 5,044 radiocarbon dates from 1,748 sites and 450 dominantly luminescence dates from 86 sites.

Limitations

  • The authors state that the analysis uses modern permanent water distribution as an analog; less water was likely available at times, especially during the Last Glacial Maximum, though continental hydroclimate cycled through modern-like conditions and relative connectivity likely remained similar.
  • They note that small permanent water points such as springs may not connect to major inundation pathways, and isolated water points would have been less significant for early dispersal because of the risk of moving through unknown country.
  • They assume gross continental-scale floodwater routing has not changed dramatically in the last 50,000 y except locally from neotectonism; the text also makes evident that WOfS currently covers only Australia, and that some well-watered routes lack early archaeological evidence, which could reflect poor preservation, limited survey, or routes not used.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1073/pnas.1608470113

Cites

62 of 62 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

3 of 68 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Findingown data
    § Abstract

    Excluding four Willandra Lakes sites, 84% of archaeological sites >30,000 y old (46 of 55 sites) are within 20 km of modern permanent water.

    “A connected network representing the least-cost distance between water bodies and graded according to terrain cost shows that 84% of archaeological sites >30,000 y old are within 20 km of modern permanent water.”
    • Also stated in: § Results and Discussion · plain
      “Excluding four sites in the Willandra Lakes area that were within 10 km of water at the time of initial occupation but now are >50 km from permanent water because of the avulsion of the Lachlan River (38), 84% of the sites from >30 ka (46 of 55 sites) are <20 km, or approximately a day’s walk, from modern permanent water”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [38] Fitzsimmons KE, Stern N, Murray-Wallace CV. Depositional history and archaeology of the central Lake Mungo lunette, Willandra Lakes, southeast Australia. J Archaeol Sci. 2014;41:349–364. [Google Scholar] source

      The paper describes archaeological traces at Lake Mungo and the Willandra Lakes (section 627, lines 627–633), but does not report a survey of 55 sites or the claimed 84% within 20 km of modern permanent water. Searches for the figures and for a least-cost network or terrain-cost analysis found no passage addressing that result. (LLM, conf=0.77)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Interpretationcitation
    § Results and Discussion

    This connectivity would facilitate ready dispersal by hunter-gatherers with an average daily foraging range of 10-15 km.

    “This connectivity would facilitate ready dispersal by hunter-gatherers with an average daily foraging range of 10–15 km (41, 42).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [41] Marlowe FW. Hunter-gatherers and human evolution. Evol Anthropol. 2005;14(2):54–67. [Google Scholar]
    • cites [42] Pontzer H, et al. Hunter-gatherer energetics and human obesity. PLoS One. 2012;7(7):e40503. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0040503. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source

      The Results report a mean daily walking distance of 11.4 km for Hadza men, within the claimed range, but 5.8 km for Hadza women. The paper measures daily travel distance, not a general 10–15 km foraging range for hunter-gatherers, and the cited passages do not address whether connectivity facilitates dispersal. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Findingown data
    § Abstract

    Multiple, well-watered routes into the semiarid and arid continental interior were available throughout the period of early human occupation.

    “We further show that multiple, well-watered routes into the semiarid and arid continental interior were available throughout the period of early human occupation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Results and Discussion

    Approximately 818,000 km2 of land, about 11% of the total mainland area, mostly in the center and west of the continent, is >50 km from permanent water.

    “for example, ∼818,000 km2 of land (∼11% of the total mainland area), mostly in the center and west of the continent (Fig. 3), is >50 km from permanent water (Fig. 2).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingcitation
    § Results and Discussion

    From the Gulf of Carpentaria south, multiple paleohydrological corridors through interior Queensland existed following abundant permanent water points <20 km apart that would be directly connected at times of inundation.

    “From the Gulf of Carpentaria south, multiple paleohydrological corridors [sensu Breeze et al. (30)] through interior Queensland existed following abundant, permanent water points <20 km apart that would be directly connected at times of inundation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [30] Breeze PS, et al. Palaeohydrological corridors for hominin dispersals in the Middle East ∼250–70,000 years ago. Quat Sci Rev. 2016;144:155–185. [Google Scholar] source
  • It may state two separate claims as one. 17
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 6
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationcitation
    § Results and Discussion

    The modern distribution of small permanent water features is likely broadly comparable to their distribution in the past, with many such locations being important refugia as a result of their long-term stability.

    “Hence their modern distribution is likely broadly comparable to their distribution in the past, with many such locations being important refugia as a result of their long-term stability (56–58).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [56] Davis J, Pavlova A, Thompson R, Sunnucks P. Evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges: Key concepts for conserving Australian arid zone freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Glob Change Biol. 2013;19(7):1970–1984. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12203. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source

      The ‘Identification of evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges’ section identifies some permanent aquatic habitats as long-term refugia, and ‘Likely future refugia and vulnerability under climate change’ says perennial habitats currently acting as evolutionary refugia may persist for very long periods. Neither passage establishes that the modern distribution of small permanent water features is broadly comparable to their distribution in the past. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [57] Morton SR, Short J, Barker RD. 1995. Refugia for biological diversity in arid and semi-arid Australia. Department of the Environment Water Heritage and the Arts Biodiversity Series Paper 4.
    • cites [58] Wischusen JD, Fifield LK, Cresswell RG. Hydrogeology of Palm Valley, central Australia; a Pleistocene flora refuge? J Hydrol (Amst) 2004;293(1-4):20–46. [Google Scholar] source
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The areas where small permanent water features such as springs, gnammas, and rockholes have been located in the past can be assumed to be relatively constant because they require particular lithologies, hydrogeological environments, and/or geomorphic settings.
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data
    § Results and Discussion

    The relationship between >30 ka archaeological sites and modern permanent water is stronger than that between younger archaeological sites and water, of which 65% are <20 km from modern permanent water.

    “This relationship is stronger than that between younger archaeological sites and water (65% <20 km), including sites dating to the Holocene when climate and the distribution of permanent water were similar to the present day (39).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [39] Reeves JM, et al. Palaeoenvironmental change in tropical Australasia over the last 30,000 years – a synthesis by the OZ-INTIMATE group. Quat Sci Rev. 2013;74:97–114. [Google Scholar] source
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data
    § Results and Discussion

    The distribution of sites from <30 ka is similar to the distribution of land area relative to modern permanent water, with 65% of 1,049 sites <20 km and 20% of sites >40 km from modern permanent water.

    “The distribution of sites from <30 ka is similar to the distribution of land area relative to modern permanent water (Fig. 3), with 65% of 1,049 sites <20 km and 20% of sites >40 km from modern permanent water.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data
    § Abstract

    The spatial analysis of 112,786 individual natural water points demonstrates a high degree of directed landscape connectivity during wet periods and a high density of water points distributed widely but unevenly across modern arid and semiarid Australia.

    “Results demonstrate a high degree of directed landscape connectivity during wet periods and a high density of permanent water points widely but unevenly distributed across the continental interior.”
    • Also stated in: § Results and Discussion · boosted
      “The results of the spatial analysis of the 112,786 individual natural water points (Dataset S1) demonstrate a high degree of directed landscape connectivity during wet periods and a high density of water points distributed widely but unevenly across modern arid and semiarid Australia (Fig. S1).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Results and Discussion

    At the continental scale, dispersal over long distances was rapid, implying the existence of connected and relatively abundant resources, including water.

    “At the continental scale it is clear that dispersal over long distances was rapid, implying the existence of connected and relatively abundant resources, including water.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationcitation
    § Results and Discussion

    A woodland route from the northwest, initially east across the monsoon savannas to Lake Carpentaria and turning south through Western Queensland to the Lake Mungo region and central South Australia, would have been relatively well-watered, as would an interior route south from an initial entry point in the north.

    “A “woodland” route (13) from the northwest, initially east across the monsoon savannas to Lake Carpentaria and turning south through Western Queensland to the Lake Mungo region and central South Australia would have been relatively well-watered, as would an interior route south from an initial entry point in the north (14).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [13] Horton DR. Water and woodland: The peopling of Australia. Australian Institute of Aboriginal Studies Newsletter. 1981;16:21–27. [Google Scholar]
    • cites [14] Tindale NB. Prehistory of the Aborigines: Some interesting considerations. In: Keast A, editor. Ecological Biogeography of Australia. Dr W Junk Publishers; The Hague: 1981. pp. 1761–1796. [Google Scholar]
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Abstract

    Aridity in isolation is not necessarily a barrier either to habitation or to transit.

    “Aridity in isolation therefore is not necessarily a barrier either to habitation or to transit.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Results and Discussion

    Multiple archaeological sites are known along the more southerly routes, but none are known along the putative northern route, suggesting that the southern route is more likely to have been followed.

    “Although multiple archaeological sites are known along the more southerly routes, none are known along the putative northern route, suggesting that the southern route is more likely to have been the one followed.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    Smith attributes human dispersal through the desert to access to food resources provided by stepping stones of small and variable water features, rather than to the resources themselves.

    “Smith (26) attributes human dispersal through the desert to access to the food resources provided by stepping stones of small and variable water features, rather than to the resources themselves.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [26] Smith M. Palaeoclimates: An archaeology of climate change. In: Sherrat T, Griffiths T, Robin L, editors. A Change in the Weather: Climate and Culture in Australia. National Museum of Australia; Canberra: 2005. pp. 176–186. [Google Scholar]
  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    Water is critical for human survival.

    “water is critical for human survival (27–30)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked
    • cites [27] Finlayson C. The Water Optimisation Hypothesis and the human occupation of the mid-latitude belt in the Pleistocene. Quat Int. 2013;300:22–31. [Google Scholar]
    • cites [28] Oppenheimer S. Human’s association with water bodies: The ‘Exaggerated Diving Reflex’ and its relationship with the evolutionary allometry of human pelvic and brain sizes. Hum Evol. 2013;28(3-4):137–170. [Google Scholar]
    • cites [29] Breeze PS, et al. Remote sensing and GIS techniques for reconstructing Arabian palaeohydrology and identifying archaeological sites. Quat Int. 2015;382:98–119. [Google Scholar] source
    • cites [30] Breeze PS, et al. Palaeohydrological corridors for hominin dispersals in the Middle East ∼250–70,000 years ago. Quat Sci Rev. 2016;144:155–185. [Google Scholar] source
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationown data
    § Results and Discussion

    The bedrock-dominated core of the continent was mostly readily accessible, although with greater difficulty and likely only during extended wet periods, via well-connected water points in southwest Queensland or South Australia along the Finke River or relatively well-connected permanent water points south through the central Northern Territory.

    “The bedrock-dominated core of the continent was mostly readily accessible (Fig. 2), although with greater difficulty and likely only during extended wet periods, via (i) well-connected water points in southwest Queensland or South Australia (along the Finke River) or (ii) relatively well-connected permanent water points south through the central Northern Territory.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    O'Connell and Allen propose a model of human dispersal throughout the continental interior driven by resource availability/depletion, with major interior rivers/river basins representing the environments most attractive to human foragers.

    “O’Connell and Allen (1), building on previous work (25) and drawing on optimal foraging theory, propose a model of human dispersal throughout the continental interior driven by resource availability/depletion, with the major interior rivers/river basins representing the environments most attractive to human foragers”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [1] O’Connell JF, Allen J. The process biotic impact and global implications of the human colonization of Sahul about 47,000 years ago. J Archaeol Sci. 2015;56:73–84. [Google Scholar] source
    • cites [25] O’Connell JF, Allen J. The restaurant at the end of the universe: Modelling the colonisation of Sahul. Aust Archaeol. 2012;74:5–17. [Google Scholar] source
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Conclusions

    Given that permanent water points act as a focus for potential prey and other resources, the apparently rapid dispersal through much of interior Australia likely was similarly focused along well-connected routes defined by permanent water points, and dispersal potentially was driven farther along these routes by the progressive depletion of local resources.

    “Given that permanent water points act as a focus for potential prey and other resources, the apparently rapid dispersal through much of interior Australia likely was similarly focused along these well-connected routes defined by permanent water points, and dispersal potentially was driven farther along these routes by the progressive depletion of local resources.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Results and Discussion

    The modern distribution of water is likely to be broadly analogous to the situation at some times during early dispersal, and at the continental scale the connectivity of water points is likely, in a relative sense, to have been similar in the past.

    “Hence the modern distribution of water is likely to be broadly analogous to the situation at some times during early dispersal, and at the continental scale the connectivity of water points also is likely, in a relative sense, to have been similar in the past.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The gross routing of floodwaters at the continental scale is unlikely to have changed dramatically in the last 50,000 y, except locally in response to geomorphic changes as a result of neotectonism.
  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisenone given
    § Conclusions

    The WOfS dataset is based on satellite imagery with global coverage.

    “However, it is based on satellite imagery with global coverage.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § Results and Discussion

    Some small permanent water points, such as springs, are known to be important to human populations, occur widely in arid and semiarid Australia, but are not necessarily connected to major inundation pathways.

    “Second, some small permanent water points, such as springs, which are known to be important to human populations, occur widely in arid and semiarid Australia but are not necessarily connected to major inundation pathways (52–55).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked
    • cites [52] Bandler H. Water resources exploitation in Australian prehistory environment. Environmentalist. 1995;15(2):97–107. [Google Scholar]
    • cites [53] Bindon PR. Aboriginal people and granite domes. J R Soc West Aust. 1997;80:173–179. [Google Scholar]
    • cites [54] Fensham RJ, Fairfax RJ. Spring wetlands of the Great Artesian Basin, Queensland, Australia. Wetlands Ecol Manage. 2003;11(5):343–362. [Google Scholar] source
    • cites [55] Hercus L, Clarke P. Nine Simpson desert wells. Archaeol Ocean. 1986;21(1):51–62. [Google Scholar] source
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Conclusions

    The satellite imagery underlying WOfS can be used to derive similar water-permanence products elsewhere, enabling a more nuanced interpretation of dispersal routes that considers the permanency of water across a landscape.

    “The imagery can be used to derive similar products elsewhere, in turn enabling progression beyond the identification of drainage networks and basins as potential dispersal routes (29, 30, 60) to a more nuanced interpretation that considers the permanency of water across a landscape.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [29] Breeze PS, et al. Remote sensing and GIS techniques for reconstructing Arabian palaeohydrology and identifying archaeological sites. Quat Int. 2015;382:98–119. [Google Scholar] source
    • cites [30] Breeze PS, et al. Palaeohydrological corridors for hominin dispersals in the Middle East ∼250–70,000 years ago. Quat Sci Rev. 2016;144:155–185. [Google Scholar] source
    • cites [60] Field JS, Petraglia MD, Lahr MM. The southern dispersal hypothesis and the South Asian archaeological record: Examination of dispersal routes through GIS analysis. J Anthropol Archaeol. 2007;26(1):88–108. [Google Scholar] source
  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Conclusions

    The same approach can be used to develop and test models that seek to explain the rapid dispersal of modern humans out of Africa via similar periodically interconnected hydro-ecological networks.

    “The same approach therefore can be used to develop and test models that seek to explain the rapid dispersal of modern humans out of Africa (27–30, 61) via similar periodically interconnected hydro-ecological networks (1, 27, 28, 43, 62).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 8 sources checked
    • cites [27] Finlayson C. The Water Optimisation Hypothesis and the human occupation of the mid-latitude belt in the Pleistocene. Quat Int. 2013;300:22–31. [Google Scholar]
    • cites [28] Oppenheimer S. Human’s association with water bodies: The ‘Exaggerated Diving Reflex’ and its relationship with the evolutionary allometry of human pelvic and brain sizes. Hum Evol. 2013;28(3-4):137–170. [Google Scholar]
    • cites [29] Breeze PS, et al. Remote sensing and GIS techniques for reconstructing Arabian palaeohydrology and identifying archaeological sites. Quat Int. 2015;382:98–119. [Google Scholar] source
    • cites [30] Breeze PS, et al. Palaeohydrological corridors for hominin dispersals in the Middle East ∼250–70,000 years ago. Quat Sci Rev. 2016;144:155–185. [Google Scholar] source
    • cites [61] Mellars P, Gori KC, Carr M, Soares PA, Richards MB. Genetic and archaeological perspectives on the initial modern human colonization of southern Asia. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2013;110(26):10699–10704. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1306043110. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
    • cites [1] O’Connell JF, Allen J. The process biotic impact and global implications of the human colonization of Sahul about 47,000 years ago. J Archaeol Sci. 2015;56:73–84. [Google Scholar] source
    • cites [43] Williams AN, Ulm S, Cook AR, Langley MC, Collard M. Human refugia in Australia during the Last Glacial Maximum and terminal Pleistocene: A geospatial analysis of the 25–12 ka Australian archaeological record. J Archaeol Sci. 2013;40(12):4612–4625. [Google Scholar] source
    • cites [62] Boivin NL, et al. Ecological consequences of human niche construction: Examining long-term anthropogenic shaping of global species distributions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2016;113(23):6388–6396. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1525200113. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § Results and Discussion

    A higher density of isolated refugial areas occurred in regions such as the Kimberley, the rocky central arid zone, and the Channel Country, all identified as regional refugia by Williams et al. on the basis of dated archaeological sites, as well as in some wetter coastal areas.

    “A higher density of these isolated refugial areas occurred in regions such as the Kimberley, the rocky central arid zone, and the Channel Country, all areas identified as regional refugia by Williams et al. (43) on the basis of the distribution of dated archaeological sites, as well as in some wetter coastal areas (46).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [43] Williams AN, Ulm S, Cook AR, Langley MC, Collard M. Human refugia in Australia during the Last Glacial Maximum and terminal Pleistocene: A geospatial analysis of the 25–12 ka Australian archaeological record. J Archaeol Sci. 2013;40(12):4612–4625. [Google Scholar] source
    • cites [46] Williams AN, Atkinson F, Lau M, Toms PS. A glacial cryptic refuge in south-east Australia: Human occupation and mobility from 36 000 years ago in the Sydney Basin, New South Wales. J Quaternary Sci. 2014;29(8):735–748. [Google Scholar] source
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § Materials and Methods

    The Austarch database comprises 5,044 radiocarbon dates from 1,748 sites and a further 450 (dominantly luminescence) dates from 86 sites.

    “This information has been compiled in the Austarch database comprising 5,044 radiocarbon dates from 1,748 sites and a further 450 (dominantly luminescence) dates from 86 sites (63).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [63] Williams AN, Ulm S, Smith M, Reid J. AustArch: A database of 14C and non-14C ages from archaeological sites in Australia: Composition compilation and review. Internet Archaeology. 2014;36:1–12. [Google Scholar] source
  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationnone given
    § Conclusions

    The lack of evidence of early occupation in some regions could result from poor preservation potential, limited archaeological survey effort, or the identified route not being used.

    “The lack of evidence of early occupation could result from poor preservation potential, from limited archaeological survey effort, or from the identified route indeed not being used.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
21 of 21
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The gross routing of floodwaters at the continental scale is unlikely to have changed dramatically in the last 50,000 y, except locally in response to geomorphic changes as a result of neotectonism.

    “Third, we assume that the gross routing of floodwaters at the continental scale is unlikely to have changed dramatically in the last 50,000 y, except locally in response to geomorphic changes as a result of neotectonism (59).”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The areas where small permanent water features such as springs, gnammas, and rockholes have been located in the past can be assumed to be relatively constant because they require particular lithologies, hydrogeological environments, and/or geomorphic settings.

    “Although it is possible that springs in local areas will activate or deactivate over time and that billabongs and other small water sources in bedrock (gnammas, rockholes) will form and disappear over time, the areas where such features have been located in the past can be assumed to be relatively constant, because they require particular lithologies, hydrogeological environments, and/or geomorph”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    All treatments of human dispersal in Pleistocene Sahul to date have lacked an explicit spatial dimension.

    “All treatments of human dispersal in Pleistocene Sahul to date have lacked an explicit spatial dimension.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The distribution and permanence of water bodies observed in the WOfS 30-year record are representative of water availability during the period of human colonization of Australia.

    “The tiled WOfS data, the values of which represent the percentage of observations over 30 y in which each pixel was identified as water, were merged into one surface and converted to a binary raster representing the presence of water bodies, having been filtered for values greater than 90% observed water.”
    “The analysis suggests that permanent water, connected during periodic inundation events, provided—and provides—effective conduits for human movement over thousands of kilometers through much, but not all, of the continental interior.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Least-cost paths between water bodies, graded by terrain cost, approximate the routes actually taken by ancient humans.

    “A connected network was produced, representing the least-cost distance between water bodies and graded according to terrain cost.”
    “The analysis suggests that permanent water, connected during periodic inundation events, provided—and provides—effective conduits for human movement over thousands of kilometers through much, but not all, of the continental interior.”
5 of 5

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Previous research has established that extant hunter-gatherers use space in similar ways to other animals.

    “Yet, previous research has established that extant hunter-gatherers use space in similar ways to other animals [41][42][43] .”

    From Landscape rules predict optimal superhighways for the first peopling of sahul (2021) · cites this paper as [41]

    The Abstract describes Indigenous Australians dispersing to water sources after rain and retreating as those sources disappear. Results and Discussion discusses hunter-gatherer foraging ranges and fauna concentrated near water, but it does not establish that extant hunter-gatherers generally use space in similar ways to other animals. (LLM, conf=0.78)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Citations

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

2 of the 64 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 3

  1. DR Horton, Water and woodland: The peopling of Australia. Australian Institute of Aboriginal Studies Newsletter 16, 21–27 (1981).
  2. S Oppenheimer, Human’s association with water bodies: The ‘Exaggerated Diving Reflex’ and its relationship with the evolutionary allometry of human pelvic and brain sizes. Hum Evol 28, 137–170 (2013).
  3. PM Veth Abandonment or Maintenance Of Country?: A Critical Examination of Mobility Patterns and Implications for Native Title. Australian Institute of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Studies Native Title Research Unit Issues Paper 22 pp. 1–8. (2003).

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Metadata

Authors
Bird, M. I., O’Grady, D., & Ulm, S.
Affiliations
James Cook University (AU)
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Published
2016-09-08
Volume
113
Issue
41
Pages
11477-11482
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
OpenAlex
W2526188401
Cited by
69
References
64
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 7
FWCI
15.14
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • ResearchOnline at James Cook University (James Cook University) (submittedVersion)
Funders
Department of Industry, Innovation, Science, Research and Tertiary Education, Australian Government | Australian Research Council (FL140100044, FT120100656)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Anthropology › Pleistocene-Era Hominins and Archaeology
  • Social Sciences › Archeology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History › Water management and technologies
Keywords
human dispersal, Pleistocene, colonization of Australia, water availability, paleohydrology, permanent water bodies, springs, waterholes, hydrological connectivity, least-cost path, arid landscapes, semiarid landscapes, archaeological site, resource depletion
MeSH terms
Archaeology, Australia, Geography, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Water, Water Resources, Human Migration

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-11-09, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).

A second model labelled each claim on 2026-11-09 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).

Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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