The DOI matches its Crossref record; 62 of the 64 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 3 of the 68 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Humans, water, and the colonization of Australia
Open accessAbstract
Significance: Australia is the driest inhabited continent on earth, but humans dispersed rapidly through much of the arid continental interior after their arrival more than 47,000 y ago. The distribution and connectedness of water across the continent, and particularly in its arid core, played a pivotal role in facilitating and focusing early human dispersal throughout the continent. We analyze the distribution and connectedness of modern permanent water across Australia. The modelled least-cost pathways between permanent water sources indicate that the observed rapid occupation of the continental interior was possible along multiple, well-watered routes and likely was driven by the depletion of high-ranked resources in each newly occupied area over time.
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
The paper uses modern water distribution and least-cost connectivity to argue that early human dispersal across Pleistocene Australia was focused along well-watered routes, especially through the eastern semiarid and arid interior. It finds that most archaeological sites older than 30,000 y are close to modern permanent water, supporting water availability as a primary constraint and corridor for colonization.
Key findings
- Across 112,786 natural water points, permanent water is widely but unevenly distributed, with high directed landscape connectivity during wet periods.
- 84% of archaeological sites >30,000 y old (46 of 55) are within 20 km of modern permanent water, and all are <40 km; excluding four Willandra Lakes sites now >50 km from water due to Lachlan River avulsion.
- Younger sites (<30,000 y) are less tightly associated with water: 65% of 1,049 sites are <20 km and 20% are >40 km from modern permanent water.
- Multiple well-watered routes into the interior were available; a strictly coastal route from the northwest to the south and east would be at least five times longer than an overland route across the north and south through Queensland. About 818,000 km² (~11% of mainland Australia), mostly central and western, is >50 km from permanent water, making immediate continent-wide dispersal unlikely.
Methods
- Used the Water Observations from Space (WOfS) dataset from Landsat-5 and Landsat-7 imagery (30-m resolution, imagery from 1987 onward), filtered to >90% observed water, plus Geofabric water features such as springs, gnammas, native wells, pools, rockholes, soaks, and waterholes; merged at 1-minute (~1,850 m) resolution.
- Built a cost surface using Tobler’s Hiking Function and a 1-second SRTM-derived digital elevation model, then traced least-cost routes with GRASS GIS r.watershed using a 100-pixel (~350 km²) basin size.
- Compared spatial results with the Austarch database: 5,044 radiocarbon dates from 1,748 sites and 450 dominantly luminescence dates from 86 sites.
Limitations
- The authors state that the analysis uses modern permanent water distribution as an analog; less water was likely available at times, especially during the Last Glacial Maximum, though continental hydroclimate cycled through modern-like conditions and relative connectivity likely remained similar.
- They note that small permanent water points such as springs may not connect to major inundation pathways, and isolated water points would have been less significant for early dispersal because of the risk of moving through unknown country.
- They assume gross continental-scale floodwater routing has not changed dramatically in the last 50,000 y except locally from neotectonism; the text also makes evident that WOfS currently covers only Australia, and that some well-watered routes lack early archaeological evidence, which could reflect poor preservation, limited survey, or routes not used.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
3 of 68 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Findingown data§ Abstract
Excluding four Willandra Lakes sites, 84% of archaeological sites >30,000 y old (46 of 55 sites) are within 20 km of modern permanent water.
“A connected network representing the least-cost distance between water bodies and graded according to terrain cost shows that 84% of archaeological sites >30,000 y old are within 20 km of modern permanent water.”
- Also stated in: § Results and Discussion · plain
“Excluding four sites in the Willandra Lakes area that were within 10 km of water at the time of initial occupation but now are >50 km from permanent water because of the avulsion of the Lachlan River (38), 84% of the sites from >30 ka (46 of 55 sites) are <20 km, or approximately a day’s walk, from modern permanent water”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [38] Fitzsimmons KE, Stern N, Murray-Wallace CV. Depositional history and archaeology of the central Lake Mungo lunette, Willandra Lakes, southeast Australia. J Archaeol Sci. 2014;41:349–364. [Google Scholar] source
The paper describes archaeological traces at Lake Mungo and the Willandra Lakes (section 627, lines 627–633), but does not report a survey of 55 sites or the claimed 84% within 20 km of modern permanent water. Searches for the figures and for a least-cost network or terrain-cost analysis found no passage addressing that result. (LLM, conf=0.77)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Also stated in: § Results and Discussion · plain
- Interpretationcitation§ Results and Discussion
This connectivity would facilitate ready dispersal by hunter-gatherers with an average daily foraging range of 10-15 km.
“This connectivity would facilitate ready dispersal by hunter-gatherers with an average daily foraging range of 10–15 km (41, 42).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites [41] Marlowe FW. Hunter-gatherers and human evolution. Evol Anthropol. 2005;14(2):54–67. [Google Scholar]
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The Results report a mean daily walking distance of 11.4 km for Hadza men, within the claimed range, but 5.8 km for Hadza women. The paper measures daily travel distance, not a general 10–15 km foraging range for hunter-gatherers, and the cited passages do not address whether connectivity facilitates dispersal. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Findingown data§ Abstract
Multiple, well-watered routes into the semiarid and arid continental interior were available throughout the period of early human occupation.
“We further show that multiple, well-watered routes into the semiarid and arid continental interior were available throughout the period of early human occupation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Results and Discussion
Approximately 818,000 km2 of land, about 11% of the total mainland area, mostly in the center and west of the continent, is >50 km from permanent water.
“for example, ∼818,000 km2 of land (∼11% of the total mainland area), mostly in the center and west of the continent (Fig. 3), is >50 km from permanent water (Fig. 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingcitation§ Results and Discussion
From the Gulf of Carpentaria south, multiple paleohydrological corridors through interior Queensland existed following abundant permanent water points <20 km apart that would be directly connected at times of inundation.
“From the Gulf of Carpentaria south, multiple paleohydrological corridors [sensu Breeze et al. (30)] through interior Queensland existed following abundant, permanent water points <20 km apart that would be directly connected at times of inundation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [30] Breeze PS, et al. Palaeohydrological corridors for hominin dispersals in the Middle East ∼250–70,000 years ago. Quat Sci Rev. 2016;144:155–185. [Google Scholar] source
- Findingown data§ Results and Discussion
All archaeological sites from >30 ka are closely associated with the least-cost pathways identified on the basis of modern permanent water distribution.
“All the archaeological sites from >30 ka are closely associated with the least-cost pathways identified in Fig. 2 on the basis of modern permanent water distribution.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Results and Discussion
All archaeological sites >30,000 y old are less than 40 km from modern permanent water.
“and all sites are <40 km, or a 2-d walk.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingcitation§ Results and Discussion
A strictly coastal route from a point of entry in the northwest to the south and then east would be at a minimum five times longer than an overland route across the north of the continent and south through Queensland.
“A strictly coastal route from a point of entry in the northwest (20) to the south and then east is possible, but such a western coastal route, thence up the Murray-Darling River to Willandra Lakes (for example) would be at a minimum five times longer than an overland route across the north of the continent and south through Queensland (and would be even longer at times of lowered sea level).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [20]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Findingown data§ Conclusions
A striking feature of the spatial analysis is the clear linkage of well-watered routes from northern Australia, through the eastern semiarid and arid zone, to southeastern Australia and into the rocky arid center of the continent.
“A striking feature of the spatial analysis presented here is the clear linkage of well-watered routes from northern Australia, through the eastern semiarid and arid zone, to southeastern Australia and into the rocky arid center of the continent.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationcitation§ Abstract
Depletion of high-ranked resources over time in paleohydrological corridors potentially drove a wave of dispersal farther along well-watered routes to patches with higher foraging returns.
“Depletion of high-ranked resources over time in these paleohydrological corridors potentially drove a wave of dispersal farther along well-watered routes to patches with higher foraging returns.”
- Also stated in: § Results and Discussion · hedged
“Depletion of high-ranked resources in these patches over time would drive a wave of dispersal farther along well-watered routes to patches with higher foraging returns (1, 25).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [1] O’Connell JF, Allen J. The process biotic impact and global implications of the human colonization of Sahul about 47,000 years ago. J Archaeol Sci. 2015;56:73–84. [Google Scholar] source
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- Also stated in: § Results and Discussion · hedged
- Premisecitation§ Abstract
Initial human occupation of Australia from the north began before 47 kyBP.
“Initial occupation from the north appears to have begun before 47 kyBP (1–8) with relatively rapid movement therafter”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 8 sources checked- cites [1] O’Connell JF, Allen J. The process biotic impact and global implications of the human colonization of Sahul about 47,000 years ago. J Archaeol Sci. 2015;56:73–84. [Google Scholar] source
- cites [2] Bird MI, Hope G, Taylor D. Populating PEP II: The dispersal of humans and agriculture through Austral-Asia and Oceania. Quat Int. 2004;118-119:145–163. [Google Scholar] source
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- Interpretationreasoning§ Results and Discussion
These data imply a maximum dispersal interval of ∼5,000-10,000 y, during which most of the readily habitable parts of the continent were occupied.
“These data imply a maximum dispersal interval of ∼5,000–10,000 y, during which most of the readily habitable parts of the continent were occupied.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ Results and Discussion
Rather than continental-scale refuges, these areas may have been a patchwork of smaller, individually isolated refugia distributed more broadly across the continent.
“Rather than continental-scale refuges (16, 43, 44), these areas may have been a patchwork of smaller, individually isolated refugia (45, 46) distributed more broadly across the continent.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [16] Veth P. Islands in the interior: A model for the colonization of Australia’s arid zone. Archaeol Ocean. 1989;24(3):81–92. [Google Scholar]
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- Premisecitation§ Abstract
The Willandra Lakes region in southeast Australia may have been occupied within 1,000 y after human arrival.
“the Willandra Lakes region in the southeast of the continent may have been occupied within 1,000 y after the arrival of humans (1, 9, 10).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [1] O’Connell JF, Allen J. The process biotic impact and global implications of the human colonization of Sahul about 47,000 years ago. J Archaeol Sci. 2015;56:73–84. [Google Scholar] source
- cites [9] Bowler JM, et al. New ages for human occupation and climatic change at Lake Mungo, Australia. Nature. 2003;421(6925):837–840. doi: 10.1038/nature01383. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
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- Interpretationown data§ Results and Discussion
The association between archaeological sites from >30 ka and modern permanent water suggests that the distribution of modern permanent water is a reasonable analog for the distribution of permanent water in the past.
“The association between archaeological sites from >30 ka and modern permanent water suggests that the distribution of modern permanent water is a reasonable analog for the distribution of permanent water in the past.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The gross routing of floodwaters at the continental scale is unlikely to have changed dramatically in the last 50,000 y, except locally in response to geomorphic changes as a result of neotectonism.
- Interpretationreasoning§ Results and Discussion
A lag in the occupation of central Australia amounting to ∼10,000 y suggests that the arid interior was relatively difficult to access.
“A lag in the occupation of central Australia amounting to ∼10,000 y suggests that the arid interior was relatively difficult to access.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation§ Results and Discussion
There was a lag in occupation of the arid bedrock core of the continent, which was not occupied until 36.5-42.5 ka.
“There was a lag in occupation of the arid bedrock core of the continent, which was not occupied until 36.5–42.5 ka (23).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [23] Hiscock P, Wallis LA. Pleistocene settlement of deserts from an Australian perspective. In: Veth P, Smith M, Hiscock P, editors. Desert Peoples: Archaeological Perspectives. Blackwell; Malden, MA: 2005. pp. 34–57. [Google Scholar] source
- Interpretationreasoning§ Abstract
The duration of inundation, the connectedness of water at times of inundation, and the location of permanent water in the landscape dictate where and for how long humans could reside in or transit through most of interior Australia.
“It is the duration of inundation, the connectedness of water at times of inundation, and the location of permanent water in the landscape that dictates where, and for what length of time, humans could reside in or transit through most of interior Australia.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data§ Results and Discussion
More recent populations developed the ability to journey farther from permanent water than populations could during the initial dispersal.
“This distribution suggests that more recent populations have developed the ability to journey farther from permanent water than populations could during the initial dispersal.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationcitation§ Results and Discussion
Immediate and rapid continent-wide dispersal is unlikely because large regions have very limited accessible permanent water and long distances between permanent water points.
“Immediate and rapid continent-wide dispersal (11) is unlikely, because there are large regions where, at any time, accessible permanent water is very limited and the distance between permanent water points is long”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [11] Birdsell JB. Some Population Problems Involving Pleistocene Man. Cold Spring Harbor Symposia on Quantitative Biology. Cold Spring Harbor Lab Press; Cold Spring Harbor, NY: 1957. pp. 47–69. [Google Scholar]
- Interpretationnone given§ Results and Discussion
As the continent dried during the Last Glacial Maximum, populations contracted into smaller areas with access to a reduced number of permanent water points and reduced food resources.
“As the continent dried during the Last Glacial Maximum, populations contracted into smaller areas with access to a reduced number of permanent water points and reduced food resources.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationnone given§ Results and Discussion
The broad-scale patterns of water distribution observable in the present are likely to have held in the past, particularly during the wetter periods of initial human dispersal.
“Nevertheless, the broad-scale patterns observable in the present are likely to have held in the past and particularly during the wetter periods of initial human dispersal.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The gross routing of floodwaters at the continental scale is unlikely to have changed dramatically in the last 50,000 y, except locally in response to geomorphic changes as a result of neotectonism.
- Premisecitation§ Abstract
The Pleistocene global dispersal of modern humans required transit of arid and semiarid regions where the distribution of potable water was a primary constraint on dispersal pathways.
“The Pleistocene global dispersal of modern humans required the transit of arid and semiarid regions where the distribution of potable water provided a primary constraint on dispersal pathways.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [27] Finlayson C. The Water Optimisation Hypothesis and the human occupation of the mid-latitude belt in the Pleistocene. Quat Int. 2013;300:22–31. [Google Scholar]
- cites [28] Oppenheimer S. Human’s association with water bodies: The ‘Exaggerated Diving Reflex’ and its relationship with the evolutionary allometry of human pelvic and brain sizes. Hum Evol. 2013;28(3-4):137–170. [Google Scholar]
- cites [29] Breeze PS, et al. Remote sensing and GIS techniques for reconstructing Arabian palaeohydrology and identifying archaeological sites. Quat Int. 2015;382:98–119. [Google Scholar] source
- cites [30] Breeze PS, et al. Palaeohydrological corridors for hominin dispersals in the Middle East ∼250–70,000 years ago. Quat Sci Rev. 2016;144:155–185. [Google Scholar] source
- Interpretationreasoning§ Conclusions
The WOfS dataset, in combination with other terrain attributes, can be used predictively to identify areas worthy of investigation for their potential to yield previously unrecognized archaeological sites to delimit the initial dispersal routes better.
“These alternatives, in turn, suggest that the dataset, in combination with other terrain attributes, can be used predictively to identify areas worthy of investigation for their potential to yield previously unrecognized archaeological sites to delimit the initial dispersal routes better.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ Results and Discussion
Refugial areas, particularly those located in the sandy deserts fringing the arid bedrock core of the continent, may well have been separated by truly uninhabited regions.
“Refugial areas, particularly those located in the sandy deserts fringing the arid bedrock core of the continent, may well have been separated by truly uninhabited regions.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation§ Results and Discussion
It is likely that substantially less water was available across the continent at some times in the past, particularly during the Last Glacial Maximum.
“Of course, it is likely that substantially less water was available across the continent at some times in the past and particularly during the Last Glacial Maximum (47, 48).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [47] Hesse PP, Magee JW, Van Der Kaars S. Late Quaternary climates of the Australian arid zone: A review. Quat Int. 2004;118-119:87–102. [Google Scholar] source
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- Premisecitation§ Results and Discussion
During the millennia following human arrival, the hydroclimate at the continental scale cycled several times through conditions similar to modern conditions, toward both wetter and drier periods, potentially with different timing and to differing degrees from the south to the north of the continent.
“However, during the millennia following human arrival, the hydroclimate at the continental scale cycled several times through conditions similar to modern conditions, toward both wetter and drier periods, potentially with different timing and to differing degrees from the south to the north of the continent (48–51).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [48] Fitzsimmons KE, et al. Late Quaternary palaeoenvironmental change in the Australian drylands. Quat Sci Rev. 2013;74:78–96. [Google Scholar] source
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Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.
- Interpretationreasoning§ Results and Discussion
In the context of early human dispersal, small isolated water points are likely to have been less significant than areas connected during times of inundation, because of the risk associated with striking out into an unknown area across an intervening landscape with no known water points.
“In the context of early human dispersal, small isolated water points (identified from topographic sheets) are likely to have been less significant than areas connected during times of inundation (identified by the WOfS data), because of the risk associated with striking out into an unknown area across an intervening landscape with no known water points.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The areas where small permanent water features such as springs, gnammas, and rockholes have been located in the past can be assumed to be relatively constant because they require particular lithologies, hydrogeological environments, and/or geomorphic settings.
- Interpretationown data§ Conclusions
The clear relationship between archaeological sites from >30 ka and modern permanent water provides strong evidence that, at the continental scale, these factors have always been important.
“The clear relationship between archaeological sites from >30 ka and modern permanent water provides strong evidence that, at the continental scale, these factors have always been important.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationcitation§ Conclusions
The location and connectivity of water in the landscape is critical to understanding early human dispersal through water-limited environments across the globe.
“The location and connectivity of water in the landscape is critical to understanding early human dispersal through water-limited environments across the globe (27, 28).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [27] Finlayson C. The Water Optimisation Hypothesis and the human occupation of the mid-latitude belt in the Pleistocene. Quat Int. 2013;300:22–31. [Google Scholar]
- cites [28] Oppenheimer S. Human’s association with water bodies: The ‘Exaggerated Diving Reflex’ and its relationship with the evolutionary allometry of human pelvic and brain sizes. Hum Evol. 2013;28(3-4):137–170. [Google Scholar]
- Interpretationcitation§ Results and Discussion
Many small isolated water points, actively maintained in pre-European times to allow permanent habitation in arid regions, would not have been available to a party traversing new country except at times of significant inundation.
“Many of the small isolated water points, actively maintained in pre-European times to allow permanent habitation in arid regions (55), would not have been available to a party traversing new country except at times of significant inundation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [55] Hercus L, Clarke P. Nine Simpson desert wells. Archaeol Ocean. 1986;21(1):51–62. [Google Scholar] source
- The authors state this as an assumption: The areas where small permanent water features such as springs, gnammas, and rockholes have been located in the past can be assumed to be relatively constant because they require particular lithologies, hydrogeological environments, and/or geomorphic settings.
- Interpretationreasoning§ Conclusions
Some apparently well-watered, interconnected regions lie along potential dispersal routes but have yet to yield evidence of early, or in some places any, occupation in prehistory.
“A corollary of this analysis is that some apparently well-watered, interconnected regions lie along potential dispersal routes but have yet to yield evidence of early (or, in some places, any) occupation in prehistory.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data§ Conclusions
Permanent water, connected during periodic inundation events, provided-and provides-effective conduits for human movement over thousands of kilometers through much, but not all, of the continental interior.
“The analysis suggests that permanent water, connected during periodic inundation events, provided—and provides—effective conduits for human movement over thousands of kilometers through much, but not all, of the continental interior.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The distribution and permanence of water bodies observed in the WOfS 30-year record are representative of water availability during the period of human colonization of Australia.
- Rests on an assumption: Least-cost paths between water bodies, graded by terrain cost, approximate the routes actually taken by ancient humans.
- Premisecitation§ Materials and Methods
Radiocarbon dates from archaeological sites provide a measure of ancient human presence across Australia.
“A measure of ancient human presence across Australia is provided by radiocarbon dates from archaeological sites.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [63] Williams AN, Ulm S, Smith M, Reid J. AustArch: A database of 14C and non-14C ages from archaeological sites in Australia: Composition compilation and review. Internet Archaeology. 2014;36:1–12. [Google Scholar] source
- It may state two separate claims as one. 17
- Probably not a substantial claim. 6
It may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationcitation§ Results and DiscussionThe modern distribution of small permanent water features is likely broadly comparable to their distribution in the past, with many such locations being important refugia as a result of their long-term stability.
“Hence their modern distribution is likely broadly comparable to their distribution in the past, with many such locations being important refugia as a result of their long-term stability (56–58).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked- cites [56] Davis J, Pavlova A, Thompson R, Sunnucks P. Evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges: Key concepts for conserving Australian arid zone freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Glob Change Biol. 2013;19(7):1970–1984. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12203. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
The ‘Identification of evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges’ section identifies some permanent aquatic habitats as long-term refugia, and ‘Likely future refugia and vulnerability under climate change’ says perennial habitats currently acting as evolutionary refugia may persist for very long periods. Neither passage establishes that the modern distribution of small permanent water features is broadly comparable to their distribution in the past. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [57] Morton SR, Short J, Barker RD. 1995. Refugia for biological diversity in arid and semi-arid Australia. Department of the Environment Water Heritage and the Arts Biodiversity Series Paper 4.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: The areas where small permanent water features such as springs, gnammas, and rockholes have been located in the past can be assumed to be relatively constant because they require particular lithologies, hydrogeological environments, and/or geomorphic settings.
It may state two separate claims as one.
Findingown data§ Results and DiscussionThe relationship between >30 ka archaeological sites and modern permanent water is stronger than that between younger archaeological sites and water, of which 65% are <20 km from modern permanent water.
“This relationship is stronger than that between younger archaeological sites and water (65% <20 km), including sites dating to the Holocene when climate and the distribution of permanent water were similar to the present day (39).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [39] Reeves JM, et al. Palaeoenvironmental change in tropical Australasia over the last 30,000 years – a synthesis by the OZ-INTIMATE group. Quat Sci Rev. 2013;74:97–114. [Google Scholar] source
It may state two separate claims as one.
Findingown data§ Results and DiscussionThe distribution of sites from <30 ka is similar to the distribution of land area relative to modern permanent water, with 65% of 1,049 sites <20 km and 20% of sites >40 km from modern permanent water.
“The distribution of sites from <30 ka is similar to the distribution of land area relative to modern permanent water (Fig. 3), with 65% of 1,049 sites <20 km and 20% of sites >40 km from modern permanent water.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
Findingown data§ AbstractThe spatial analysis of 112,786 individual natural water points demonstrates a high degree of directed landscape connectivity during wet periods and a high density of water points distributed widely but unevenly across modern arid and semiarid Australia.
“Results demonstrate a high degree of directed landscape connectivity during wet periods and a high density of permanent water points widely but unevenly distributed across the continental interior.”
- Also stated in: § Results and Discussion · boosted
“The results of the spatial analysis of the 112,786 individual natural water points (Dataset S1) demonstrate a high degree of directed landscape connectivity during wet periods and a high density of water points distributed widely but unevenly across modern arid and semiarid Australia (Fig. S1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Also stated in: § Results and Discussion · boosted
It may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationreasoning§ Results and DiscussionAt the continental scale, dispersal over long distances was rapid, implying the existence of connected and relatively abundant resources, including water.
“At the continental scale it is clear that dispersal over long distances was rapid, implying the existence of connected and relatively abundant resources, including water.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationcitation§ Results and DiscussionA woodland route from the northwest, initially east across the monsoon savannas to Lake Carpentaria and turning south through Western Queensland to the Lake Mungo region and central South Australia, would have been relatively well-watered, as would an interior route south from an initial entry point in the north.
“A “woodland” route (13) from the northwest, initially east across the monsoon savannas to Lake Carpentaria and turning south through Western Queensland to the Lake Mungo region and central South Australia would have been relatively well-watered, as would an interior route south from an initial entry point in the north (14).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [13] Horton DR. Water and woodland: The peopling of Australia. Australian Institute of Aboriginal Studies Newsletter. 1981;16:21–27. [Google Scholar]
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It may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationreasoning§ AbstractAridity in isolation is not necessarily a barrier either to habitation or to transit.
“Aridity in isolation therefore is not necessarily a barrier either to habitation or to transit.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationreasoning§ Results and DiscussionMultiple archaeological sites are known along the more southerly routes, but none are known along the putative northern route, suggesting that the southern route is more likely to have been followed.
“Although multiple archaeological sites are known along the more southerly routes, none are known along the putative northern route, suggesting that the southern route is more likely to have been the one followed.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
Premisecitation§ AbstractSmith attributes human dispersal through the desert to access to food resources provided by stepping stones of small and variable water features, rather than to the resources themselves.
“Smith (26) attributes human dispersal through the desert to access to the food resources provided by stepping stones of small and variable water features, rather than to the resources themselves.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [26] Smith M. Palaeoclimates: An archaeology of climate change. In: Sherrat T, Griffiths T, Robin L, editors. A Change in the Weather: Climate and Culture in Australia. National Museum of Australia; Canberra: 2005. pp. 176–186. [Google Scholar]
Probably not a substantial claim.
Premisecitation§ AbstractWater is critical for human survival.
“water is critical for human survival (27–30)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [27] Finlayson C. The Water Optimisation Hypothesis and the human occupation of the mid-latitude belt in the Pleistocene. Quat Int. 2013;300:22–31. [Google Scholar]
- cites [28] Oppenheimer S. Human’s association with water bodies: The ‘Exaggerated Diving Reflex’ and its relationship with the evolutionary allometry of human pelvic and brain sizes. Hum Evol. 2013;28(3-4):137–170. [Google Scholar]
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It may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationown data§ Results and DiscussionThe bedrock-dominated core of the continent was mostly readily accessible, although with greater difficulty and likely only during extended wet periods, via well-connected water points in southwest Queensland or South Australia along the Finke River or relatively well-connected permanent water points south through the central Northern Territory.
“The bedrock-dominated core of the continent was mostly readily accessible (Fig. 2), although with greater difficulty and likely only during extended wet periods, via (i) well-connected water points in southwest Queensland or South Australia (along the Finke River) or (ii) relatively well-connected permanent water points south through the central Northern Territory.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
Premisecitation§ AbstractO'Connell and Allen propose a model of human dispersal throughout the continental interior driven by resource availability/depletion, with major interior rivers/river basins representing the environments most attractive to human foragers.
“O’Connell and Allen (1), building on previous work (25) and drawing on optimal foraging theory, propose a model of human dispersal throughout the continental interior driven by resource availability/depletion, with the major interior rivers/river basins representing the environments most attractive to human foragers”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [1] O’Connell JF, Allen J. The process biotic impact and global implications of the human colonization of Sahul about 47,000 years ago. J Archaeol Sci. 2015;56:73–84. [Google Scholar] source
- cites [25] O’Connell JF, Allen J. The restaurant at the end of the universe: Modelling the colonisation of Sahul. Aust Archaeol. 2012;74:5–17. [Google Scholar] source
It may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationreasoning§ ConclusionsGiven that permanent water points act as a focus for potential prey and other resources, the apparently rapid dispersal through much of interior Australia likely was similarly focused along well-connected routes defined by permanent water points, and dispersal potentially was driven farther along these routes by the progressive depletion of local resources.
“Given that permanent water points act as a focus for potential prey and other resources, the apparently rapid dispersal through much of interior Australia likely was similarly focused along these well-connected routes defined by permanent water points, and dispersal potentially was driven farther along these routes by the progressive depletion of local resources.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationreasoning§ Results and DiscussionThe modern distribution of water is likely to be broadly analogous to the situation at some times during early dispersal, and at the continental scale the connectivity of water points is likely, in a relative sense, to have been similar in the past.
“Hence the modern distribution of water is likely to be broadly analogous to the situation at some times during early dispersal, and at the continental scale the connectivity of water points also is likely, in a relative sense, to have been similar in the past.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The gross routing of floodwaters at the continental scale is unlikely to have changed dramatically in the last 50,000 y, except locally in response to geomorphic changes as a result of neotectonism.
Probably not a substantial claim.
Premisenone given§ ConclusionsThe WOfS dataset is based on satellite imagery with global coverage.
“However, it is based on satellite imagery with global coverage.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
Premisecitation§ Results and DiscussionSome small permanent water points, such as springs, are known to be important to human populations, occur widely in arid and semiarid Australia, but are not necessarily connected to major inundation pathways.
“Second, some small permanent water points, such as springs, which are known to be important to human populations, occur widely in arid and semiarid Australia but are not necessarily connected to major inundation pathways (52–55).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [52] Bandler H. Water resources exploitation in Australian prehistory environment. Environmentalist. 1995;15(2):97–107. [Google Scholar]
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It may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationreasoning§ ConclusionsThe satellite imagery underlying WOfS can be used to derive similar water-permanence products elsewhere, enabling a more nuanced interpretation of dispersal routes that considers the permanency of water across a landscape.
“The imagery can be used to derive similar products elsewhere, in turn enabling progression beyond the identification of drainage networks and basins as potential dispersal routes (29, 30, 60) to a more nuanced interpretation that considers the permanency of water across a landscape.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [29] Breeze PS, et al. Remote sensing and GIS techniques for reconstructing Arabian palaeohydrology and identifying archaeological sites. Quat Int. 2015;382:98–119. [Google Scholar] source
- cites [30] Breeze PS, et al. Palaeohydrological corridors for hominin dispersals in the Middle East ∼250–70,000 years ago. Quat Sci Rev. 2016;144:155–185. [Google Scholar] source
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Probably not a substantial claim.
Interpretationreasoning§ ConclusionsThe same approach can be used to develop and test models that seek to explain the rapid dispersal of modern humans out of Africa via similar periodically interconnected hydro-ecological networks.
“The same approach therefore can be used to develop and test models that seek to explain the rapid dispersal of modern humans out of Africa (27–30, 61) via similar periodically interconnected hydro-ecological networks (1, 27, 28, 43, 62).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 8 sources checked- cites [27] Finlayson C. The Water Optimisation Hypothesis and the human occupation of the mid-latitude belt in the Pleistocene. Quat Int. 2013;300:22–31. [Google Scholar]
- cites [28] Oppenheimer S. Human’s association with water bodies: The ‘Exaggerated Diving Reflex’ and its relationship with the evolutionary allometry of human pelvic and brain sizes. Hum Evol. 2013;28(3-4):137–170. [Google Scholar]
- cites [29] Breeze PS, et al. Remote sensing and GIS techniques for reconstructing Arabian palaeohydrology and identifying archaeological sites. Quat Int. 2015;382:98–119. [Google Scholar] source
- cites [30] Breeze PS, et al. Palaeohydrological corridors for hominin dispersals in the Middle East ∼250–70,000 years ago. Quat Sci Rev. 2016;144:155–185. [Google Scholar] source
- cites [61] Mellars P, Gori KC, Carr M, Soares PA, Richards MB. Genetic and archaeological perspectives on the initial modern human colonization of southern Asia. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2013;110(26):10699–10704. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1306043110. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
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It may state two separate claims as one.
Premisecitation§ Results and DiscussionA higher density of isolated refugial areas occurred in regions such as the Kimberley, the rocky central arid zone, and the Channel Country, all identified as regional refugia by Williams et al. on the basis of dated archaeological sites, as well as in some wetter coastal areas.
“A higher density of these isolated refugial areas occurred in regions such as the Kimberley, the rocky central arid zone, and the Channel Country, all areas identified as regional refugia by Williams et al. (43) on the basis of the distribution of dated archaeological sites, as well as in some wetter coastal areas (46).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [43] Williams AN, Ulm S, Cook AR, Langley MC, Collard M. Human refugia in Australia during the Last Glacial Maximum and terminal Pleistocene: A geospatial analysis of the 25–12 ka Australian archaeological record. J Archaeol Sci. 2013;40(12):4612–4625. [Google Scholar] source
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It may state two separate claims as one.
Premisecitation§ Materials and MethodsThe Austarch database comprises 5,044 radiocarbon dates from 1,748 sites and a further 450 (dominantly luminescence) dates from 86 sites.
“This information has been compiled in the Austarch database comprising 5,044 radiocarbon dates from 1,748 sites and a further 450 (dominantly luminescence) dates from 86 sites (63).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [63] Williams AN, Ulm S, Smith M, Reid J. AustArch: A database of 14C and non-14C ages from archaeological sites in Australia: Composition compilation and review. Internet Archaeology. 2014;36:1–12. [Google Scholar] source
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationnone given§ ConclusionsThe lack of evidence of early occupation in some regions could result from poor preservation potential, limited archaeological survey effort, or the identified route not being used.
“The lack of evidence of early occupation could result from poor preservation potential, from limited archaeological survey effort, or from the identified route indeed not being used.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
The authors state this as an assumption.
The gross routing of floodwaters at the continental scale is unlikely to have changed dramatically in the last 50,000 y, except locally in response to geomorphic changes as a result of neotectonism.
“Third, we assume that the gross routing of floodwaters at the continental scale is unlikely to have changed dramatically in the last 50,000 y, except locally in response to geomorphic changes as a result of neotectonism (59).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The areas where small permanent water features such as springs, gnammas, and rockholes have been located in the past can be assumed to be relatively constant because they require particular lithologies, hydrogeological environments, and/or geomorphic settings.
“Although it is possible that springs in local areas will activate or deactivate over time and that billabongs and other small water sources in bedrock (gnammas, rockholes) will form and disappear over time, the areas where such features have been located in the past can be assumed to be relatively constant, because they require particular lithologies, hydrogeological environments, and/or geomorph”
The paper relies on this without support.
All treatments of human dispersal in Pleistocene Sahul to date have lacked an explicit spatial dimension.
“All treatments of human dispersal in Pleistocene Sahul to date have lacked an explicit spatial dimension.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The distribution and permanence of water bodies observed in the WOfS 30-year record are representative of water availability during the period of human colonization of Australia.
“The tiled WOfS data, the values of which represent the percentage of observations over 30 y in which each pixel was identified as water, were merged into one surface and converted to a binary raster representing the presence of water bodies, having been filtered for values greater than 90% observed water.”
“The analysis suggests that permanent water, connected during periodic inundation events, provided—and provides—effective conduits for human movement over thousands of kilometers through much, but not all, of the continental interior.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Least-cost paths between water bodies, graded by terrain cost, approximate the routes actually taken by ancient humans.
“A connected network was produced, representing the least-cost distance between water bodies and graded according to terrain cost.”
“The analysis suggests that permanent water, connected during periodic inundation events, provided—and provides—effective conduits for human movement over thousands of kilometers through much, but not all, of the continental interior.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Previous research has established that extant hunter-gatherers use space in similar ways to other animals.
“Yet, previous research has established that extant hunter-gatherers use space in similar ways to other animals [41][42][43] .”
From Landscape rules predict optimal superhighways for the first peopling of sahul (2021) · cites this paper as [41]
The Abstract describes Indigenous Australians dispersing to water sources after rain and retreating as those sources disappear. Results and Discussion discusses hunter-gatherer foraging ranges and fauna concentrated near water, but it does not establish that extant hunter-gatherers generally use space in similar ways to other animals. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
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Flagged first, then by citations
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Cited by
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Aboriginal mitogenomes reveal 50,000 years of regionalism in Australia
Tobler, R., Rohrlach, A. B., Soubrier, J., Bover, P. R., Llamas, B., Tuke, J., Bean, N. G., Abdullah-Highfold, A., Agius, S., O’Donoghue, A., et al. (2017) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature21416 · Cited by 376
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Self-citationWilliams, A. N., Ulm, S., Sapienza, T., Lewis, S., & TURNEY, C. S. M. (2018) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.11.030 · Cited by 162
Self-citationHow long do floods throughout the millennium remain in the collective memory?
Fanta, V., Šálek, M., & Sklenička, P. (2019) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09102-3 · Cited by 125
Bird, M. I., Beaman, R. J., Condie, S. A., Cooper, A., Ulm, S., & Veth, P. (2018) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.04.027 · Cited by 122
Self-citationExtinction of eastern Sahul megafauna coincides with sustained environmental deterioration
Hocknull, S. A., Lewis, R. J., Arnold, L. J., Pietsch, T., Joannes‐Boyau, R., Price, G. J., Moss, P., Wood, R. E., Dosseto, A., Louys, J., et al. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-15785-w · Cited by 103
Landscape rules predict optimal superhighways for the first peopling of sahul
Crabtree, S. A., White, D. A., Bradshaw, C. J. A., Saltré, F., Williams, A. N., Beaman, R. J., Bird, M. I., & Ulm, S. (2021) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-021-01106-8 · Cited by 74
Self-citationClimate-human interaction associated with southeast Australian megafauna extinction patterns
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Self-citationStochastic models support rapid peopling of Late Pleistocene Sahul
Bradshaw, C. J. A., Norman, K., Ulm, S., Williams, A. N., Clarkson, C., Chadœuf, J., Lin, S. C., Jacobs, Z., Roberts, R. G., Bird, M. I., et al. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21551-3 · Cited by 58
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Elevated Southern Hemisphere moisture availability during glacial periods
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GSFLOW–GRASS v1.0.0: GIS-enabled hydrologic modeling of coupled groundwater–surface-water systems
Ng, G. H. C., Wickert, A. D., Somers, L., Saberi, L., Cronkite‐Ratcliff, C., Niswonger, R. G., & McKenzie, J. M. (2018) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-11-4755-2018 · Cited by 30
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Hydroeconomic Analysis to Guide Climate Adaptation Plans
Ward, F. A. (2021) · Frontiers in Water · doi:10.3389/frwa.2021.681475 · Cited by 26
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Physiography, foraging mobility, and the first peopling of Sahul
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Marwick, B., Hiscock, P. D., Sullivan, M., & Hughes, P. (2017) · Journal of Archaeological Science Reports · doi:10.1016/j.jasrep.2017.07.004 · Cited by 16
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Least Cost Pathway Analysis of obsidian circulation in Early Holocene–Early Middle Holocene Cyprus
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Metadata
- Authors
- Bird, M. I., O’Grady, D., & Ulm, S.
- Affiliations
- James Cook University (AU)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2016-09-08
- Volume
- 113
- Issue
- 41
- Pages
- 11477-11482
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC5068313
- OpenAlex
- W2526188401
- Cited by
- 69
- References
- 64
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 7
- FWCI
- 15.14
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- ResearchOnline at James Cook University (James Cook University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Department of Industry, Innovation, Science, Research and Tertiary Education, Australian Government | Australian Research Council (FL140100044, FT120100656)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Anthropology › Pleistocene-Era Hominins and Archaeology
- Social Sciences › Archeology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History › Water management and technologies
- Keywords
- human dispersal, Pleistocene, colonization of Australia, water availability, paleohydrology, permanent water bodies, springs, waterholes, hydrological connectivity, least-cost path, arid landscapes, semiarid landscapes, archaeological site, resource depletion
- MeSH terms
- Archaeology, Australia, Geography, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Water, Water Resources, Human Migration
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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