Cited by 1,004Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental ImpactSustainable Agricultural Systems AnalysisClimate change impacts on agriculture

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Agriculture in 2050: Recalibrating Targets for Sustainable Intensification

Hunter, Mitchell C., Smith, Richard G., Schipanski, Meagan E., Atwood, Lesley W., Mortensen, David A.·2017·BioScience

DOI 10.1093/biosci/bix010

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Abstract

The prevailing discourse on the future of agriculture is dominated by an imbalanced narrative that calls for food production to increase dramatically—potentially doubling by 2050—without specifying commensurate environmental goals. We aim to rebalance this narrative by laying out quantitative and compelling midcentury targets for both production and the environment. Our analysis shows that an increase of approximately 25%–70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 crop demand. At the same time, nutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture must drop dramatically to restore and maintain ecosystem functioning. Specifying quantitative targets will clarify the scope of the challenges that agriculture must face in the coming decades, focus research and policy on achieving specific outcomes, and ensure that sustainable intensification efforts lead to measurable environmental improvements. We propose new directions for research and policy to help meet both sustainability and production goals.

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“Recent projections, which use 2014 as a baseline, estimate that crop production should increase by 25–70% to meet food demand in 2050 [2].”
Background
In Situ Measuring Stem Diameters of Maize Crops with a High-Throughput Phenotyping Robot
Fan, Z., Sun, N., Qiu, Q., Li, T., Feng, Q., & Zhao, C. (2022) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs14041030 · Cited by 19
“The global population is expected to reach 10 billion [1,2], meaning that a 70% increment of crop yields has to be achieved over the next 30 years to meet the growing demand for food [3,4].”
Background
Integrated mulching and nitrogen management strategies influence carbon footprint and sustainability of wheat production on the Loess Plateau of China
Li, S., Wang, S., Shi, J., Tian, X., & Ye, X. (2023) · Field Crops Research · doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2023.108928 · Cited by 19
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alrajhi, K., Bibi, S., & Abu‐Dieyeh, M. H. (2023) · Saudi Journal of Biological Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.sjbs.2023.103911 · Cited by 19
“In the year 2050, the food demand will rise in tandem with the rise in population (Hunter et al., 2017).”
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Cooperative management can mitigate trade-offs between livestock production and ecological functions to promote grassland sustainability
Li, S., Jiao, J., Degen, A. A., Wang, W., Qi, T., Huang, M., Xu, S., & Shang, Z. (2024) · Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment · doi:10.1016/j.agee.2024.109057 · Cited by 20
A sixty-year tryst with photosynthesis and related processes: an informal personal perspective
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Optimizing livestock feed provision to improve the efficiency of the agri-food system
Wyngaarden, S., Lightburn, K. K., & Martin, R. C. (2019) · Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems · doi:10.1080/21683565.2019.1633455 · Cited by 23
“Some researchers estimate that the agriculture industry will have to increase yields by 25%–70% to provide sufficient food for this growing population (Hunter et al. 2017).”
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Muscle fiber type, postmortem metabolism, and meat quality of Nellore cattle with different post-weaning growth potential
Beline, M., Gómez, J. F. M., Antonelo, D. S., da Silva, J. C. D. A., Buarque, V. L. M., Cônsolo, N. R. B., Leme, P. R., Matarneh, S. K., Gerrard, D. E., & Silva, S. D. L. E. (2020) · Livestock Science · doi:10.1016/j.livsci.2020.104348 · Cited by 19
Probabilistic Bayesian Neural Networks for olive phenology prediction in precision agriculture
Nappa, A., Quartulli, M., Azpiroz, I., Marchi, S., Guidotti, D., Staiano, M., & Siciliano, R. (2024) · Ecological Informatics · doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2024.102723 · Cited by 18
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A review of cybersecurity incidents in the food and agriculture sector
Kulkarni, A., Wang, Y., Gopinath, M., Sobien, D., Rahman, A., & Batarseh, F. A. (2025) · Journal of Agriculture and Food Research · doi:10.1016/j.jafr.2025.102245 · Cited by 46
An Assessment of the Factors Influencing the Prediction Accuracy of Genomic Prediction Models Across Multiple Environments
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Molecular Manipulation of the miR396 and miR399 Expression Modules Alters the Response of Arabidopsis thaliana to Phosphate Stress
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A Comprehensive Review on Machine Learning Approaches for Yield Prediction Using Essential Soil Nutrients
Prabavathi, R., & Chelliah, B. J. (2022) · Universal Journal of Agricultural Research · doi:10.13189/ujar.2022.100310 · Cited by 21
Nanofertilizers: The targeted nutrient supplier and enhance nutrients uptake by pearl millets (Pennisetum glaucum)
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Random mutagenesis of Phaeodactylum tricornutum using ultraviolet, chemical, and X-ray irradiation demonstrates the need for temporal analysis of phenotype stability
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You, Y., Tian, H., Pan, S., Shi, H., Lü, C., Batchelor, W. D., Cheng, B., Hui, D., Kicklighter, D. W., Liang, X., et al. (2023) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.17109 · Cited by 17
“By 2050, global food production may need to increase by 25%–70% (Hunter et al., 2017 ), or even double current production levels (Tilman et al., 2011 ), to meet projected food demands.”
Background
Exploring natural genetic variation in photosynthesis-related traits of barley in the field
Gao, Y., Stein, M., Oshana, L., Zhao, W., Matsubara, S., & Stich, B. (2024) · Journal of Experimental Botany · doi:10.1093/jxb/erae198 · Cited by 18
“To satisfy the increasing demand for agricultural products at constant crop production areas, crop yields need to be increased by the year 2050 by about 25–70% (Hunter et al. , 2017).”
Enhancing crop disease management through integrating biocontrol bacteria and silicon fertilizers: Challenges and opportunities
Etesami, H. (2024) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123102 · Cited by 20
Investigating dynamic interconnections between organic farming adoption and freshwater sustainability
Aivazidou, E., & Tsolakis, N. (2021) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112896 · Cited by 18
Evidence of risks of renal function reduction due to occupational exposure to agrochemicals: A systematic review
Prudente, I. R. G., Cruz, C. L., Nascimento, L. D. C., Kaiser, C. C., & Guimarães, A. G. (2018) · Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology · doi:10.1016/j.etap.2018.08.006 · Cited by 18
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“Meeting this increasing food demand, food production must increase significantly and potentially double by 2050 (Hunter et al. 2017; Steinwand and Ronald 2020).”
Background
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“To meet the demands of the increasing needs of the population for food and to protect the environment, modern agricultural practices, on the basis of not respecting the objective situation, such as blindly pursuing food production and abusing chemical fertilizers and pesticides, have had many negative climatic and soc…”
Background
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“Recent studies predict that the rapidly expanding global population, estimated to reach 9.4 billion by 2030 and 10.1 billion by 2050 [11], will demand a significant increase in agricultural output, ranging from 25 to 70%, to effectively meet escalating global food demands [8].”
Influential
Water quality impacts of recycling nutrients using organic fertilizers in circular agricultural scenarios
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“The world’s food production needs to increase by up to 70% by 2050 to feed the growing population of the world [16] even though the amount of arable land is limited, and the water levels are receding.”
Background
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Yin, X., & Leng, G.-Y. (2020) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.6792 · Cited by 17
“With rapid growth in population and income, global food demand is projected to increase by 25–70% by 2050s from the 2014 baseline (Hunter et al., 2017), which poses a great challenge for the agriculture sector, especially under the context of changing climate (Koning and van Ittersum, 2009; Godfray…”
Background
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Greer, S. F., Rabiey, M., Studholme, D. J., & Grant, M. (2024) · Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand · doi:10.1080/03036758.2024.2345315 · Cited by 16
“Currently there is a huge shortfall between production and food demand, and it is argued that present year-on-year crop yield increases gained through breeding are insu ﬃ cient to meet this demand (Ray et al.2013 ), although other predictions di ﬀ er (Hunter et al. 2017).”
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“…(physical supply, economic access and supply stability) forever galloping population, agricultural production needs to be increased by ∼ 70% linking productivity gains with inevitable crop-land expansion, protection of natural ecosystems and enhanced climate resilience and GHG mitigation [1–3].”
Background
Vernalization and photoperiod alleles greatly affected phenological and agronomic traits in bread wheat under autumn and spring sowing conditions
Amo, A., Serikbay, D., Song, L., Chen, L., & Hu, Y. (2022) · Crop and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.crope.2022.11.002 · Cited by 16
Pathway analysis of food security by employing climate change, water, and agriculture nexus in Pakistan: partial least square structural equation modeling
Usman, M., Ali, A., Bashir, M. K., Mushtaq, K., Ghafoor, A., Amjad, F., Hashim, M., & Baig, S. A. (2023) · Environmental Science and Pollution Research · doi:10.1007/s11356-023-28547-0 · Cited by 16

Authors: Hunter, M. C., Smith, R. G., Schipanski, M. E., Atwood, L. W., & Mortensen, D. A.
Affiliations: Pennsylvania State University (US)
University of New Hampshire (US)
Colorado State University (US)
ORCID: Hunter, Mitchell C.
Smith, Richard G.
Schipanski, Meagan E.
Atwood, Lesley W.
Mortensen, David A.
Venue: BioScience
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published: 2017-02-22
Volume: 67
Issue: 4
Pages: 386-391
ISSN: 0006-3568 (ISSN-L)
1525-3244
DOI: 10.1093/biosci/bix010
OpenAlex: W2591121333
Cited by: 1,004
References: 40
Citations by year: 2026: 69 · 2025: 104 · 2024: 151 · 2023: 142 · 2022: 166 · 2021: 155 · 2020: 104 · 2019: 58 · 2018: 43 · 2017: 10
FWCI: 44.23
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: BioScience (publishedVersion)
Funders: National Science Foundation (DGE1255832)
USDA Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Agriculture (2011-67003-30343)
USDA Organic Research and Extension Initiative (2011-51300-30638)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Sustainable Agricultural Systems Analysis
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
Keywords: sustainable intensification, future of agriculture, crop demand, nutrient loss, greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, agricultural policy, ecosystem functioning

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Agriculture in 2050: Recalibrating Targets for Sustainable Intensification

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