Cited by 1,004Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental ImpactSustainable Agricultural Systems AnalysisClimate change impacts on agriculture

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Agriculture in 2050: Recalibrating Targets for Sustainable Intensification

Hunter, Mitchell C., Smith, Richard G., Schipanski, Meagan E., Atwood, Lesley W., Mortensen, David A.·2017·BioScience

DOI 10.1093/biosci/bix010

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Abstract

The prevailing discourse on the future of agriculture is dominated by an imbalanced narrative that calls for food production to increase dramatically—potentially doubling by 2050—without specifying commensurate environmental goals. We aim to rebalance this narrative by laying out quantitative and compelling midcentury targets for both production and the environment. Our analysis shows that an increase of approximately 25%–70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 crop demand. At the same time, nutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture must drop dramatically to restore and maintain ecosystem functioning. Specifying quantitative targets will clarify the scope of the challenges that agriculture must face in the coming decades, focus research and policy on achieving specific outcomes, and ensure that sustainable intensification efforts lead to measurable environmental improvements. We propose new directions for research and policy to help meet both sustainability and production goals.

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Authors: Hunter, M. C., Smith, R. G., Schipanski, M. E., Atwood, L. W., & Mortensen, D. A.
Affiliations: Pennsylvania State University (US)
University of New Hampshire (US)
Colorado State University (US)
ORCID: Hunter, Mitchell C.
Smith, Richard G.
Schipanski, Meagan E.
Atwood, Lesley W.
Mortensen, David A.
Venue: BioScience
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published: 2017-02-22
Volume: 67
Issue: 4
Pages: 386-391
ISSN: 0006-3568 (ISSN-L)
1525-3244
DOI: 10.1093/biosci/bix010
OpenAlex: W2591121333
Cited by: 1,004
References: 40
Citations by year: 2026: 69 · 2025: 104 · 2024: 151 · 2023: 142 · 2022: 166 · 2021: 155 · 2020: 104 · 2019: 58 · 2018: 43 · 2017: 10
FWCI: 44.23
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: BioScience (publishedVersion)
Funders: National Science Foundation (DGE1255832)
USDA Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Agriculture (2011-67003-30343)
USDA Organic Research and Extension Initiative (2011-51300-30638)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Sustainable Agricultural Systems Analysis
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
Keywords: sustainable intensification, future of agriculture, crop demand, nutrient loss, greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, agricultural policy, ecosystem functioning

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Agriculture in 2050: Recalibrating Targets for Sustainable Intensification

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