Cited by 1,004Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental ImpactSustainable Agricultural Systems AnalysisClimate change impacts on agriculture

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Agriculture in 2050: Recalibrating Targets for Sustainable Intensification

Hunter, Mitchell C., Smith, Richard G., Schipanski, Meagan E., Atwood, Lesley W., Mortensen, David A.·2017·BioScience

DOI 10.1093/biosci/bix010

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Abstract

The prevailing discourse on the future of agriculture is dominated by an imbalanced narrative that calls for food production to increase dramatically—potentially doubling by 2050—without specifying commensurate environmental goals. We aim to rebalance this narrative by laying out quantitative and compelling midcentury targets for both production and the environment. Our analysis shows that an increase of approximately 25%–70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 crop demand. At the same time, nutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture must drop dramatically to restore and maintain ecosystem functioning. Specifying quantitative targets will clarify the scope of the challenges that agriculture must face in the coming decades, focus research and policy on achieving specific outcomes, and ensure that sustainable intensification efforts lead to measurable environmental improvements. We propose new directions for research and policy to help meet both sustainability and production goals.

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“It is expected that an increase of approximately 25–70% above current production levels may be necessary to meet 2050 crop demand [10,11], and this will increase the area subjected to agricultural soil degradation.”
Background
Wheat Breeding for Resistance to Major Insect Pests
Tadesse, W. (2021) · Agricultural Research & Technology Open Access Journal · doi:10.19080/artoaj.2021.25.556321 · Cited by 12
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Impact of camera focal length and sUAS flying altitude on spatial crop canopy temperature evaluation
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Resource Allocation During the Transition to Diazotrophy in Klebsiella oxytoca
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“However, as crop production must increase by up to 70% to support the estimated global food demand in 2050 (Hunter et al., 2017), agriculture is growing ever more reliant on the synthetically fixed and environmentally damaging N fertilisers produced by the industrial Haber–Bosch process.”
Background
Isolation, identification, and characterization of phosphate solubilizing bacteria, Paenibacillus sp., from the soil of Danum Valley Tropical Rainforest, Sabah, Malaysia
Lindang, H. U., Subbiah, V. K., Rodrigues, K. F., & Budiman, C. (2021) · Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity · doi:10.13057/biodiv/d221030 · Cited by 12
“Moreover, developing countries will likely increase the use of fertilizer, including P, to meet the growing agriculture demand and supply (Hunter et al. 2017; Mogollón et al. 2018).”
Cover crop mixtures enhance multiple ecosystem functions: A global meta‐analysis
Liu, J., Olhnuud, A., Li, Z., Li, H., Fornara, D. A., Zhang, W., & Liu, Y. (2025) · Journal of Applied Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2664.70089 · Cited by 11
Exploring the adoption of technologies among beginning farmers in the specialty crops industry
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Chlorophyll a fluorescence during flag leaf senescence of field‐grown winter wheat plants under drought conditions
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Comparative Study of Pre-trained Language Models for Text Classification in Smart Agriculture Domain
Yadav, S., & Kaushik, A. (2023) · Lecture notes in networks and systems · doi:10.1007/978-981-99-0981-0_21 · Cited by 11
SUSTAINABLE ALTERNATIVE FEED FOR AQUACULTURE: STATE OF THE ART AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVE
Terengganu, U. M., SHAHIN, S., Okomoda, V. T., Terengganu, U. M., Ma, H., Ikhwanuddin, M., & Terengganu, U. M. (2023) · PLANETARY SUSTAINABILITY · doi:10.46754/ps.2023.07.005 · Cited by 14
Automatic detection and classification of disease in citrus fruit and leaves using a customized CNN based model
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Predicting China’s Maize Yield Using Multi-Source Datasets and Machine Learning Algorithms
Zou, Y., Sun, Z., Cui, X., Wang, G., Kattel, G., Shang, Y., Zhu, J., Yu, Y., Qin, Q., & Miao, L. (2024) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs16132417 · Cited by 18
Quantitative phenotyping of crop roots with spectral electrical impedance tomography: a rhizotron study with optimized measurement design
Michels, V., Chou, C., Weigand, M., Wu, Y., & Kemna, A. (2024) · Plant Methods · doi:10.1186/s13007-024-01247-7 · Cited by 11
“In order to meet the steadily rising demand for food from an increasing population, and react to the simultaneously progressing climate change, the resilience and yield of crops have to be improved in the near future [1].”
Development of a PGPB-based biofertilizer to optimize strawberry cultivation in semiarid regions: Screening, validation and scaling up to commercial production
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Background
Dissipation and Distribution of Picarbutrazox Residue Following Spraying with an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle on Chinese Cabbage (Brassica campestris var. pekinensis)
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Background
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“Global agriculture has been facing a serious challenge, with a required increase in foodstuffs of 25-110% by 2050 to meet the increasing demands of the growing population (Ray et al., 2013; Hunter et al., 2017).”
Background
Quantifying heterogeneity, heteroscedasticity and publication bias effects on technical efficiency estimates of rice farming: A meta‐regression analysis
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Sustainable Agriculture: Relationship between Knowledge and Attitude among University Students
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How Changes in ABA Accumulation and Signaling Influence Tomato Drought Responses and Reproductive Development
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Agricultural Land Use and the Global Carbon Cycle
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Quantile regression in genomic selection for oligogenic traits in autogamous plants: A simulation study
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Efficacy, economics, and sustainability of bio-based insecticides from thermochemical biorefineries
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Agricultural Crops and Management Practices: The Impact of the Integrated Crop Emission Mitigation Framework on Greenhouse Gas Reduction
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Three-dimensional phenotyping: Technological advances and applications in genomics-assisted crop breeding
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Looking beyond calories—when food quality and sourcing matters
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Dietary Effects of a Short-Term Administration of Microalgae Blend on Growth Performance, Tissue Fatty Acids, and Predominant Intestinal Microbiota in Sparus aurata
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Authors: Hunter, M. C., Smith, R. G., Schipanski, M. E., Atwood, L. W., & Mortensen, D. A.
Affiliations: Pennsylvania State University (US)
University of New Hampshire (US)
Colorado State University (US)
ORCID: Hunter, Mitchell C.
Smith, Richard G.
Schipanski, Meagan E.
Atwood, Lesley W.
Mortensen, David A.
Venue: BioScience
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published: 2017-02-22
Volume: 67
Issue: 4
Pages: 386-391
ISSN: 0006-3568 (ISSN-L)
1525-3244
DOI: 10.1093/biosci/bix010
OpenAlex: W2591121333
Cited by: 1,004
References: 40
Citations by year: 2026: 69 · 2025: 104 · 2024: 151 · 2023: 142 · 2022: 166 · 2021: 155 · 2020: 104 · 2019: 58 · 2018: 43 · 2017: 10
FWCI: 44.23
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: BioScience (publishedVersion)
Funders: National Science Foundation (DGE1255832)
USDA Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Agriculture (2011-67003-30343)
USDA Organic Research and Extension Initiative (2011-51300-30638)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Sustainable Agricultural Systems Analysis
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
Keywords: sustainable intensification, future of agriculture, crop demand, nutrient loss, greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, agricultural policy, ecosystem functioning

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Agriculture in 2050: Recalibrating Targets for Sustainable Intensification

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