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Affirmative Action, Mismatch, and Economic Mobility after California’s Proposition 209
Open accessAbstract
Proposition 209 banned race-based affirmative action at California public universities in 1998. Using a difference-in-differences research design and a newly constructed longitudinal database linking all 1994–2002 University of California applicants to their educational experiences and wages, I show that ending affirmative action caused underrepresented minority (URM) freshman applicants to cascade into lower-quality colleges. The “mismatch hypothesis” implies that this cascade would provide net educational benefits to URM applicants, but their degree attainment declined overall and in STEM fields, especially among less academically qualified applicants. URM applicants’ average wages in their twenties and thirties subsequently declined, driven by declines among Hispanic applicants. These declines are not explained by URM students' performance or persistence in STEM course sequences, which were unchanged after Prop 209. Ending affirmative action also deterred thousands of qualified URM students from applying to any UC campus. Complementary regression discontinuity and institutional value-added analyses suggest that affirmative action’s net educational and wage benefits for URM applicants exceed its net costs for on-the-margin white and Asian applicants.
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
Ending race-based affirmative action at UC after Proposition 209 caused underrepresented minority applicants to cascade into less-selective universities, reducing degree attainment and early-career wages, especially for Hispanic applicants. The results are inconsistent with the Mismatch Hypothesis and suggest affirmative action's net wage benefits for URM applicants exceeded its small costs for on-the-margin white and Asian applicants.
Key findings
- Prop 209 reduced URM applicants' likelihood of admission to UC's most selective campuses by as much as 50 percentage points relative to academically comparable non-URM applicants; URM enrollment at more-selective UC campuses fell 7.6 percentage points, with at least 1,200 URM UC applicants exiting UC campuses and 800 entering. UC also received about 250 fewer Black and 900 fewer Hispanic applications annually after Prop 209.
- Bachelor's degree attainment declined by 4.3 percentage points among URM UC applicants in the bottom AI quartile; unconditional STEM degree attainment declined by 1.0 percentage point; graduate degree attainment declined by 1.3 percentage points, with STEM master's/doctoral attainment declining 0.58 percentage points.
- URM UC applicants' average annual wages declined by 5 percent between ages 24 and 34; each applicant became 1.4 percentage points less likely to earn $100,000 annually in their early 30s. By 2014, Prop 209 had caused at least a 3 percent aggregate decline in high-earning early-career URM Californians, almost wholly driven by Hispanic applicants.
- Less-selective UC enrollment did not improve URM students' STEM performance or persistence; STEM persistence change had a 95% confidence interval of -2.3 to 3.5 percentage points, and STEM course grades were precisely unchanged. A Berkeley regression discontinuity found on-the-margin non-URM students enrolled at similar-quality universities and had similar educational and labor market outcomes.
Methods
- Difference-in-difference design comparing URM and non-URM California-resident freshman UC applicants before and after Prop 209 (1996-97 vs. 1998-99; robustness using 1994-95), with high school fixed effects and Academic Index covariates. The sample links all 1994-2002 UC applicants to National Student Clearinghouse enrollment/degree records, California Employment Development Department wages, and UC transcript records.
- Additional analyses include an application-deterrence model using UC-eligible high school graduates by school, ethnicity, and AI bin; a regression discontinuity at UC Berkeley's 1996-97 non-URM admissions threshold; institutional value-added estimates; and STEM course-sequence models across five UC campuses.
Limitations
- Stated: the reduced-form estimates average over many URM students likely unimpacted by Prop 209, so they likely substantially underestimate effects on students whose enrollment was shifted; they omit impacts on URM Californians dissuaded from UC application; and they omit labor market outcomes for non-Californian and self-employed workers.
- Stated/evident: value-added statistics likely retain some selection bias and tend to exaggerate differences across institutions; application deterrence could generate sample selection bias, though the paper reports baseline estimates are highly insensitive to detailed controls.
- Evident: wage records cover only California unemployment-insurance-covered employment; NSC records are incomplete for some institutions and periods; and non-URM applicants are not a true control group because some likely crowded into more-selective universities after Prop 209.
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152 Own result · 56 Own interpretation · 48 No basis given · 26 Own method · 8 Sources not found · 6 Not checked yet · 2 Supported · 2 Partly supported · 1 No full text of the sources · accuracy not yet measured
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In the paper
“Second, that latter return substantially exceeds the average observed change in institutional value-added faced by URM UC applicants, suggesting that selective universities' positive treatment effects are considerably above-average for the URM applicants impacted by Prop 209 (as in Dale and Krueger (2014)).”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Dale and Krueger (2014) source
The Introduction reports that selection-adjusted effects of college characteristics were generally indistinguishable from zero, with large estimates remaining for Black and Hispanic students. The Conclusion specifies a positive effect of attending a higher-SAT college for those students in the 1989 cohort. The citation supports that comparative pattern; the application to UC applicants affected by Prop 209 is the citing authors’ inference. (LLM, conf=0.87)
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In the paper
“Second, that latter return substantially exceeds the average observed change in institutional value-added faced by URM UC applicants, suggesting that selective universities' positive treatment effects are considerably above-average for the URM applicants impacted by Prop 209 (as in Dale and Krueger (2014)).”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Dale and Krueger (2014) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Introduction and Conclusion report that, unlike the generally near-zero selection-adjusted estimates, returns to college selectivity remain positive for Black and Hispanic students in the 1989 cohort. That supports the cited analogy, but the paper does not establish a comparison with institutional value-added for URM UC applicants or estimate effects for applicants affected by Prop 209. (LLM, conf=0.86)
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In the paper
“with a simultaneous sharp rise in URM admits' average test scores.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.3 University of California Descriptive Statistics
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“while only about three percent of similar-AI non-URM applicants did so.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.4 UC Applicants' University Enrollment
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“Enrolling at less-selective UC campuses did not improve URM students' performance or persistence in STEM course sequences.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
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“There are about four times as many non-URM UC applicants as URM applicants”
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“with the top AI quartile of Black applicants facing a 15 percentage point enrollment decline”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.1 Institutional Quality
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“and if anything became even less likely to earn degrees after affirmative action was eliminated, with a 95-percent confidence interval of -1.69 to 0.27 percentage point change in average six-year degree attainment.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
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“The average number of non-URM annual applications received by UC increased by more than 25 percent in the period, with increases of 42 percent at the more-selective campuses.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.3 University of California Descriptive Statistics
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“At UCLA, for example, average SAT scores rose 17 points among non-URM applicants and 27 points among admits.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.3 University of California Descriptive Statistics
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“those at the 25th percentile became less likely to enroll at the selective campuses”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.4 UC Applicants' University Enrollment
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“URM applicants' average SAT scores rose swiftly through the period”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.3 University of California Descriptive Statistics
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“It shows that Berkeley and UCLA each annually admitted more than 500 annual additional URM applicants using affirmative action.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.1 University of California Admissions in the 1990s
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“American Community Survey data confirm a 2010s pattern of relative wage deterioration among high-earning early-career URM Californians.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
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“URM applicants' undergraduate and graduate degree attainment declined overall and in STEM fields, especially among lower-testing applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
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In the paper
“Prop 209 caused URM UC applicants to be 7.6 percentage points less likely to enroll at the more-selective UC campuses”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.1 Institutional Quality
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In the paper
“and rose slightly at the less-selective campuses.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.3 University of California Descriptive Statistics
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In the paper
“At the most-selective Berkeley campus, for example, 1994-1995 URM applicants with AIs between 6,000 to 7,100 were 80 percentage points more likely to be admitted than same-AI non-URM applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.1 University of California Admissions in the 1990s
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“Prop 209 also deterred thousands of qualified URM students from applying to any UC campus.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Table A-7 shows that at least 1,200 URM UC applicants exited UC campuses”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.1 Institutional Quality
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: Prop 209's monotonicity holds.
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In the paper
“After 1998, URM applicants to UC campuses became substantially less likely to earn admission at every campus.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.4 UC Applicants' University Enrollment
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In the paper
“Bachelor's degree attainment declined by 4.3 percentage points among URM UC applicants in the bottom AI quartile, and URM applicants' STEM degree attainment declined by 1.0 percentage points.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
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In the paper
“First, the return to UC Berkeley admission for onthe-margin non-URM students appears small, while the return to more-selective enrollment among URM UC applicants is measurably large.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
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In the paper
“Prop 209 caused URM UC applicants to enroll at less-selective universities with lower average SAT scores and graduation rates”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.1 Institutional Quality
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In the paper
“I find that UC annually received about 250 fewer Black and 900 fewer Hispanic applications after Prop 209, almost 80 percent of whom would likely have been admitted to at least one UC campus.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
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“URM applicants at the 60th AI percentile became about 10 percentage points relatively more likely to enroll at the selective campuses”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.4 UC Applicants' University Enrollment
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In the paper
“Prop 209 led to larger relative enrollment declines at the moreselective UC campuses for Black applicants”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.1 Institutional Quality
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In the paper
“and Black applicants were much more likely to flow into Ivy+ and out-of-state universities than Hispanic applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.1 Institutional Quality
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In the paper
“and decreased for those with somewhat-lower AIs (20-60th percentiles).”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.4 UC Applicants' University Enrollment
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In the paper
“I find little evidence that university affirmative action narrowed the Blackwhite economic mobility gap, which has received particular attention (Dobbie and Fryer Jr, 2011; Billings, Deming, and Rockoff, 2014; Chetty et al., 2020b), but find that it improved Black educational attainment and provided large long-run wage benefits to (mostly lower-income) Hispanic youths.”
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“After Prop 209, this gap largely closed.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.4 UC Applicants' University Enrollment
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“URM enrollment rates fell precipitously at UC's more-selective campuses”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.3 University of California Descriptive Statistics
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In the paper
“I find little evidence that university affirmative action narrowed the Blackwhite economic mobility gap, which has received particular attention (Dobbie and Fryer Jr, 2011; Billings, Deming, and Rockoff, 2014; Chetty et al., 2020b), but find that it improved Black educational attainment and provided large long-run wage benefits to (mostly lower-income) Hispanic youths.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
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In the paper
“URM applicants' relative likelihood of enrollment at Berkeley and UCLA substantially declined across the AI spectrum.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.4 UC Applicants' University Enrollment
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In the paper
“UC San Diego exhibits a pattern common to California's other public universities: URM enrollment increased relative to non-URM enrollment for higher-AI applicants (70-95th percentiles)”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.4 UC Applicants' University Enrollment
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“This resulted in a substantial net outflow of lower-income students from highly-selective public universities.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
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“Seven of the eight UC campuses provided similar admissions advantages to URM applicants under affirmative action, with the advantage shifting to higher-AI applicants over time as the campuses became more selective overall.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.1 University of California Admissions in the 1990s
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“At UCLA, for example, average SAT scores rose 17 points among non-URM applicants and 27 points among admits.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.3 University of California Descriptive Statistics
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Prop 209 also caused a 1.3 percentage point decline in each URM applicant's likelihood of earning a graduate degree, with much of that decline in STEM fields.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Meanwhile, the average SAT scores of most campuses' applicants were steadily rising”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.3 University of California Descriptive Statistics
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“I find little evidence that university affirmative action narrowed the Blackwhite economic mobility gap, which has received particular attention (Dobbie and Fryer Jr, 2011; Billings, Deming, and Rockoff, 2014; Chetty et al., 2020b), but find that it improved Black educational attainment and provided large long-run wage benefits to (mostly lower-income) Hispanic youths.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most campuses' URM admissions rates slowly declined until 1997 but then sharply declined in 1998”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.3 University of California Descriptive Statistics
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As a result, the average URM UC applicant's wages declined by five percent annually between ages 24 and 34, almost wholly driven by declines among Hispanic applicants.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
“Following these applicants into the labor market, I find that Prop 209 led URM UC applicants to earn five percent lower average annual wages between ages 24 and 34 than they would have earned had affirmative action continued, with larger proportional effects for lower-AI applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Before Prop 209, about 30 percent of median-AI URM applicants enrolled at the three more-selective UC campuses”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.4 UC Applicants' University Enrollment
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“while lower-AI URM applicants' selective UC enrollment declined.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.4 UC Applicants' University Enrollment
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“but more likely to enroll at less-selective campuses.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.4 UC Applicants' University Enrollment
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“URM applicants' undergraduate and graduate degree attainment declined overall and in STEM fields, especially among lower-testing applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“I show that Prop 209 led URM UC applicants to enroll at relatively lower-quality colleges and universities, measuring quality both by traditional statistics like average test scores and graduation rates and by novel institutional value-added statistics.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“with more than 800 exiting Berkeley and UCLA”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.1 Institutional Quality
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Prop 209's monotonicity holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Each applicant became 1.4 percentage points less likely to annually earn $100,000 (the 95 th wage percentile) in their early 30s.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Prop 209 caused URM UC applicants to enroll at institutions that (on average) lead their students to lower likelihoods of Bachelor's degree attainment by 0.5-0.9percentage points”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.1 Institutional Quality
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“slightly declined at the selective campuses”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.3 University of California Descriptive Statistics
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“with larger declines among lower-AI applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.1 Institutional Quality
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and 800 entered UC campuses after Prop 209.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.1 Institutional Quality
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Prop 209's monotonicity holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“particularly driven by the second and third URM AI quartiles”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.1 Institutional Quality
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“whose enrollment was shown above to largely flow from the more-selective and selective UC campuses to less-selective public and private California universities.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
boostedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Higher-AI URM applicants became more likely to enroll at the selective and less-selective campuses”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.4 UC Applicants' University Enrollment
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Bachelor's degree attainment declined by 4.3 percentage points among URM UC applicants in the bottom AI quartile, and URM applicants' STEM degree attainment declined by 1.0 percentage points.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While I find that using 1994-95 as an alternative baseline generally yields slightly larger estimates of Prop 209's effect, URM students' outcomes largely decline in exactly 1998.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“I directly quantify the degree of Prop 209's URM application deterrence in Section 4 and present evidence that the magnitude of the remaining bias is very small.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 2. EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“with smaller value-added declines among high-AI URM applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.1 Institutional Quality
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and led to small corresponding enrollment increases across the spectrum of other public and private higher education institutions.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.1 Institutional Quality
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Ending affirmative action caused UC's 10,000 annual underrepresented minority (URM) freshman applicants to cascade into lower-quality public and private universities.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Seven of the eight UC campuses provided similar admissions advantages to URM applicants under affirmative action, with the advantage shifting to higher-AI applicants over time as the campuses became more selective overall.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.1 University of California Admissions in the 1990s
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The first two columns show that URM UC applicants were less likely to earn Bachelor's degrees than academically-comparable non-URM applicants under AA”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Following these applicants into the labor market, I find that Prop 209 led URM UC applicants to earn five percent lower average annual wages between ages 24 and 34 than they would have earned had affirmative action continued, with larger proportional effects for lower-AI applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While I find that before Prop 209 URM UC students earned lower grades and were less likely to persist along introductory STEM course sequences than their non-URM peers, these gaps are largely explained by students' prior academic opportunities and preparedness, not their enrollment institution.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This effect is wholly driven by the bottom AI quartile of URM applicants”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The observed wage effects are almost wholly driven by Hispanic applicants; despite similar enrollment and degree attainment outcomes, I find little evidence of labor market deterioration among Black UC applicants after Prop 209.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and whose graduates earn $400-$900 lower annual early-30s wages”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.1 Institutional Quality
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As a result, admissions rates consistently fell at all but the least-selective Riverside campus.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.3 University of California Descriptive Statistics
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“URM applicants across the full AI distribution became less likely to enroll at more-selective UC campuses.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.4 UC Applicants' University Enrollment
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Meanwhile, the increasing selectivity of UC campuses also led to decreased enrollment likelihoods of all but the highest-AI non-URM applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.4 UC Applicants' University Enrollment
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The teachingoriented CSU university system and California community colleges also absorbed some low-AI URM applicants”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.4 UC Applicants' University Enrollment
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“URM applicants' undergraduate and graduate degree attainment declined overall and in STEM fields, especially among lower-testing applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Those institutions are also estimated to have lower average”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.1 Institutional Quality
hedgedstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, the return to UC Berkeley admission for onthe-margin non-URM students appears small, while the return to more-selective enrollment among URM UC applicants is measurably large.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As a result, the average URM UC applicant's wages declined by five percent annually between ages 24 and 34, almost wholly driven by declines among Hispanic applicants.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
“The observed wage effects are almost wholly driven by Hispanic applicants; despite similar enrollment and degree attainment outcomes, I find little evidence of labor market deterioration among Black UC applicants after Prop 209.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“but it did cause them to become less likely to earn STEM degrees and any graduate degrees”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“in fact, after Prop 209 many highly-qualified URM public high school graduates sent SAT scores to a UC campus but nevertheless did not apply.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4. APPLICATION DETERRENCE AND MODEL ROBUSTNESS
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Educational outcomes after Prop 209 appear broadly similar for Black and Hispanic applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“showing that academically-comparable URM and non-URM workers earned similar wages before Prop 209 but diverged afterwards.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.3 Employment and Wages
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Compared to a 1996-97 (1994-1995) baseline, the difference-in-difference estimates above imply that each of those applicants became about 1.3 (3.1) percentage points less likely to earn at least $100,000 per year in California in 2014”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4.3.1 Contextualizing Prop 209's Labor Market Impact
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“AI and ethnicity explained 40-70 percent of admissions variation at most mid-1990s UC campuses; see Figure A-1.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Prop 209 also discouraged thousands of additional academicallycompetitive URM students from sending applications to public research universities in the first place.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Applicants' changed degree attainment is less than half of the change in the six-year graduation rates of the institutions where they enroll”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“but it did cause them to become less likely to earn STEM degrees and any graduate degrees”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It shows that URM application rates following Prop 209 declined by between 4 and 6 percent of all UC-eligible URM public high school graduates.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4. APPLICATION DETERRENCE AND MODEL ROBUSTNESS
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The true distribution of AI across school-year-ethnicity cohorts remains unchanged over time.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As a placebo test, it also shows that application rates among Asian students increased by less than two percent relative to white applications.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4. APPLICATION DETERRENCE AND MODEL ROBUSTNESS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“a lower ratio than those estimated by Cohodes and Goodman (2014) and Bleemer (2018a) in other contexts.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Cohodes and Goodman (2014) source
- Not matchedcites Bleemer (2018a)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“however, adding those covariates does not change the estimated coefficient.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Combined with the estimated enrollment decline among UC applicants, this implies that Prop 209 caused an annual decline in URM UC enrollment of about 800 students in 1998-99, or 14 percent.”
- Also stated in: § 8. CONCLUSION · hedged
“The total enrollment of Black and Hispanic students at the University of California declined by about 800 students per year after 1998, when the university's eight undergraduate campuses all ceased implementing race-based affirmative action as a result of Proposition 209.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4. APPLICATION DETERRENCE AND MODEL ROBUSTNESS
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § 8. CONCLUSION · hedged
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Figure 10(b) shows that the increased likelihood of Berkeley admission causes about one-third of newly-admitted on-the-margin non-URM students to enroll.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 6. IMPACT OF PROP 209 ON NON-URM APPLICANT OUTCOMES
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Table A-12 shows that URM UC applicants' educational declines after Prop 209 are generally somewhat larger when compared to a 1995 baseline”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Figure A-15 shows that Prop 209 also caused no estimable change in Asian applicants' longer-run wage outcomes relative to other non-URM applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“this provides strong evidence for Prop 209 causing a decline in unconditional STEM degree attainment by 1.0 percentage point (s.e.0.4).”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
boostedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Table A-19 shows that the effects of Prop 209 on URM persistence were tightlyestimated 0's at the other four other observed UC campuses.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It shows that URM students were particularly discouraged from applying to the Berkeley and UCLA campuses”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4. APPLICATION DETERRENCE AND MODEL ROBUSTNESS
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“URM applicants became 1.3 percentage points (s.e.0.5) less likely to earn graduate degrees after Prop 209 relative to academicallycomparable non-URM applicants”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the fields with largest increases after 1998 are biology (0.62 percentage points) and miscellaneous humanities fields (0.30)”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“there is little such evidence for Black applicants”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.3 Employment and Wages
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“with Black applicants already earning substantially lower average wages than academically-comparable Hispanic students”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.3 Employment and Wages
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The first panel shows that Prop 209 had no net effect on URM UC applicants' California labor market participation”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.3 Employment and Wages
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and were less likely to persist along STEM course sequences by 9.3 percentage points.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 5. STEM COURSE PERFORMANCE AND PERSISTENCE
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“American Community Survey estimates show that there were 27,000 URM Californians earning over $100,000 in 2014”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4.3.1 Contextualizing Prop 209's Labor Market Impact
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites American Community Survey
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and no such evidence for medical degrees.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Almost half of this decline can be explained by a decline in STEM-oriented masters and doctoral degrees, for which attainment declines 0.58 percentage points (s.e.0.21).”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the effects' magnitudes are a small fraction of those observed for URM students.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Compared to a 1996-97 (1994-1995) baseline, the difference-in-difference estimates above imply that each of those applicants became about 1.3 (3.1) percentage points less likely to earn at least $100,000 per year in California in 2014”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4.3.1 Contextualizing Prop 209's Labor Market Impact
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Ending UC's affirmative action policies did not lead the university's URM applicants to earn higher grades in challenging courses”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Estimates are similar relative to mean class wages or including class fixed effects.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 5. STEM COURSE PERFORMANCE AND PERSISTENCE
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Table A-7 links these application declines to the AI-and campus-specific enrollment changes presented in Figure 3 to show that application deterrence caused a decline in URM UC enrollment by about 450 students, half from Berkeley and UCLA.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4. APPLICATION DETERRENCE AND MODEL ROBUSTNESS
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The third and fourth columns of Table 3 show that URM applicants may have become somewhat less likely to earn STEM degrees conditional on earning a college degree (95-percent c.i. -1.65 to 0.35 percentage points).”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Panel (f) shows that the resulting percentiles exhibit minimal trend in the years before and after Prop 209, with an approximately one percentage point decline observed between 1997 and 1998 caused by Prop 209.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, this increase in class rank did not translate into any observable improvement in those students' likelihood of STEM persistence or course grades.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 5. STEM COURSE PERFORMANCE AND PERSISTENCE
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“while applicants in the other quartiles do not appear to have faced declines in degree attainment despite enrolling at institutions with lower graduation rates.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and that UC-ineligible applicants were only slightly deterred by Prop 209.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4. APPLICATION DETERRENCE AND MODEL ROBUSTNESS
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While the wages of Hispanic students sharply declined following Prop 209 relative to academically-comparable non-URM applicants”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.3 Employment and Wages
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“or $2,400 (0.04 log points) in their early 30s.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.3 Employment and Wages
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“URM UC enrollees' STEM major choice is precisely unchanged relative to academically-comparable non-URM enrollees after Prop 209, with a 95 percent confidence interval rejecting increases above 1.5 percentage points.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 5. STEM COURSE PERFORMANCE AND PERSISTENCE
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“69 percent of applicants annually earned covered California wages before and after Prop 209.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.3 Employment and Wages
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“On average, a one percentile change in the 2001-17 URM wage distributions corresponds to $1,940, closely matching the estimated decline in URM UC applicants' wages after Prop 209.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and even the leastselective Riverside campus rejected low-AI applicants with certain intended majors.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4. APPLICATION DETERRENCE AND MODEL ROBUSTNESS
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Relative to academically-comparable non-URM UC students, however, 1996-97 URM students were 7.3 percentiles lower in their classes' SAT distribution, largely reflecting their enrollment at relatively more-selective UC campuses.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 5. STEM COURSE PERFORMANCE AND PERSISTENCE
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The bottom AI quartile had an estimated ratio closer to 1”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This study's baseline results show that banning affirmative action leads to large relative educational and labor market declines for URM university applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 7. DISCUSSION: THE EFFICIENCY OF AFFIRMATIVE ACTION POLICIES
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Among wage-earning UC applicants, however, Prop 209 caused URM workers' wages to persistently decline by an average of $1,800 (0.05 log points)”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.3 Employment and Wages
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“while those with the largest decreases are economics (-0.39), history (-0.32), and mathematics (-0.29)”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“with particularly-large declines among lower-AI applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Table A-13 shows that these wage declines are proportionally larger for lower-AI URM applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.3 Employment and Wages
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and undergraduate degree attainment declined among lower-testing URM applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Figure A-10 shows that the fraction of early-and mid-30s URM Californians earning wages above $100,000 indeed disproportionately declined in the years that those cohorts would have lost selective university access as a result of Prop 209.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4.3.1 Contextualizing Prop 209's Labor Market Impact
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“There is only weak evidence of a decline in law degree attainment”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“who also earn somewhat higher wages than academically-comparable non-URM applicants”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.3 Employment and Wages
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Members of several comparison groups -including slightly older URM Californians, similar-aged URM non-Californians, and similar-aged non-URM Californians -all became slightly more likely to earn over $100,000 over the period.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4.3.1 Contextualizing Prop 209's Labor Market Impact
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the two years before Prop 209, URM UC enrollees earned lower average grades in introductory STEM courses by 0.36 GPA points”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 5. STEM COURSE PERFORMANCE AND PERSISTENCE
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These gaps are broadly present across most introductory STEM courses.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Unlike at those other campuses, however, ending affirmative action led to substantial relative declines in URM students' persistence and performance across most STEM courses.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Estimates are largely insensitive to omitting students in Colleges of Engineering, who may face different incentives around completing STEM course sequences.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 5. STEM COURSE PERFORMANCE AND PERSISTENCE
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As late as age 34, there is no evidence that the average wages of URM applicants impacted by Prop 209 recover to their earlier levels.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.3 Employment and Wages
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Figure A-12 shows that Prop 209 similarly impacted Black and Hispanic UC enrollees' STEM persistence and performance outcomes.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Table A-6 shows that only 6.2 percent of the baseline sample did not have observed enrollment in NSC”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In 1996-97, I find that among the 88 percent of missing-ethnicity applicants whose ethnicity can be classified, 68 percent are white, 29 percent are Asian, 2.5 percent are Hispanic, and 0.6 percent are Black.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“these advantages fell to 13 and 11 percentage points after Prop 209.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Figure A-8 shows that California labor market participation is unchanged after Prop 209 for all four AI quartiles of URM applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“but every UC campus saw sharp immediate declines in URM admission between 1997 and 1998”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The percent of UC applicants who declined to report ethnicity on their application increased from 4.1 percent in 1996-97 to 10.5 percent in 1998-99”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“There is a small measurable enrollment shift from community and private California colleges into non-California universities and the less-selective UC campuses”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The estimated change in institutional six-year graduation rate across the threshold is -0.2 percentage points, with a 2.1 standard error.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Coverage at the somewhat-selective institutions at which UC applicants tended to enroll was substantially higher.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Among all applicants to any UC campus, URM applicants' admissions advantage over non-URM applicants (to be admitted to at least one campus) fell from 9.3 to 1.4 percentage points.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and the more selective UC campuses also saw sharp year-over-year declines in URM enrollment.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“FigureA-3 shows that some UC campuses saw relatively-large declines in URM admission and enrollment likelihood between 1995 and 1996 relative to academically-comparable non-URM applicants (particularly at UCLA and the less-selective UCs)”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“a comparison between NSC and UC major reporting (measured by which students earned STEM degrees) shows that NSC routinely captures more than 90 percent of STEM degree attainment at all campuses throughout the period (conditional on degree reporting in both data sets).”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A comparison between UC and NSC graduation records suggests that only UC Santa Cruz failed to report a substantial number of earned degrees among the late 1990s graduation cohorts”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the VA estimates by quartile show that the VA wage estimates generally poorly match the observed effects of Prop 209, with the true impact more widely distributed across the AI distribution than the expected effects based on changes in VA.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“with one-third of in-sample applicants (within 400 AI of the threshold) earning over $100,000 in their early 30s.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“TableA-3 presents descriptive statistics for white and Asian UC applicants before and after Prop 209, with both showing similar admissions trends after 1998.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Section 5 shows that the STEM performance and persistence of URM students across five UC campuses does not improve following Prop 209, despite those students' enrollment at less-selective campuses.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most campuses saw smaller declines in 1996 and large declines in 1998.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The coefficients on Asian students' enrollment at more-selective and selective UC campuses are precisely-estimated zeroes”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“though URM applicants who were admitted to some UC campus became less likely to enroll at UC”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“There is no estimated change in likelihood of California employment across the Berkeley access threshold”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Table A-5 shows that admitted URM applicants became more likely to enroll at every UC campus after Prop 209”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“applicants' number of early-30s years employed in California increases by 0.14 years (s.e.0.17).”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The URM shares are hardly higher in 1998-99; of the 87 percent classified, whites and Asians make up 65 and 29 percent, while Hispanics and Blacks make up 4.2 and 1.3 percent.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“No presented result changes statistically or qualitatively if predicted-URM applicants are re-assigned as URM.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While I find that using 1994-95 as an alternative baseline generally yields slightly larger estimates of Prop 209's effect, URM students' outcomes largely decline in exactly 1998.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“suggesting that both value-added procedures understate selective universities' treatment effects among the URM students impacted by Prop 209.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.1 Institutional Quality
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Given that many URM applicants' undergraduate enrollment remained unchanged by Prop 209, the presented reduced-form coefficients likely underestimate impacted students' treatment effect of enrolling at less-selective universities after UC affirmative action ended.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3. THE IMPACT OF AFFIRMATIVE ACTION ON STUDENT OUTCOMES
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“While this application deterrence could generate bias, I find that the baseline estimates are highly insensitive to both a school-ethnicity-AI control function (following Card and Rothstein (2007)) as well as other highlydetailed socioeconomic and academic covariates, suggesting the absence of remaining bias.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Card and Rothstein (2007) source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As a result, the estimates presented below identify the impact of Prop 209 on URM student outcomes relative to its impact on non-URM outcomes.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 2. EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This suggests that the value of selective public university access for on-themargin non-URM students was small.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If universities' treatment effects for on-the-margin URM and non-URM students are equal, this implies that as much as 20 percent of the relative treatment effect estimates described below could be explained by improved outcomes among non-URM students who benefited from Prop 209.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 2. EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Universities' treatment effects for on-the-margin URM and non-URM students are equal.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“I find that UC annually received about 250 fewer Black and 900 fewer Hispanic applications after Prop 209, almost 80 percent of whom would likely have been admitted to at least one UC campus.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A key feature of this research design is that it spans outcomes for all UC applicants whether or not they ever enroll at a UC campus.This helps to avoid concerns of sample selection bias that arise from changes in the UC student composition caused by UC's changed admissions policies following Prop 209.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 2. EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While affirmative action is unlikely to be Pareto efficient, two pieces of evidence favor its Kaldor-Hicks efficiency, which in this case requires (to a first-order approximation) that the benefit of more-selective university enrollment is greater for the URM enrollees targeted by affirmative action than for the non-URM students who would have enrolled in their place.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By the mid-2010s, Prop 209 had caused a cumulative decline in the number of early-career URM Californians earning over $100,000 by at least three percent.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · hedged
“Nevertheless, given the magnitude of UC's applicant pool, these estimates imply that by 2014, Prop 209 had caused an aggregate decline in the number of high-earning URM Californians in their early 30s by at least three percent.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § Abstract · hedged
In the paper
“Proposition 209 banned race-based affirmative action at California public universities in 1998.”
- Also stated in: § 1.1 University of California Admissions in the 1990s · plain
“Prop 209 has prohibited UC and other public institutions in California from”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Douglass, 2018
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § 1.1 University of California Admissions in the 1990s · plain
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Employing a regression discontinuity design, I find that students just below Berkeley's admissions threshold nevertheless enrolled at similar-quality universities and ended up with similar educational and labor market outcomes, though the confidence intervals cannot rule out positive treatment effects.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, the non-URM UC applicant group are not a traditional”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 2. EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Compared to academicallycomparable white applicants, Asian applicants enrolled at similar universities and had indistinguishable long-run labor market outcomes after Prop 209, suggesting proportional effects of affirmative action for both groups.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Comparing the outcomes of URM and non-URM applicants after 1998 accounts for the substantial shifts in UC campuses' reputation and selectivity through the period”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 2. EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Complementary regression discontinuity and institutional value-added analyses suggest that affirmative action's net wage benefits for URM applicants exceed its (potentially small) net costs for on-the-margin white and Asian applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Overall, these patterns are consistent with a substantial cascade of URM students from more-to less-selective universities after 1998”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.4 UC Applicants' University Enrollment
hedgedstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“I also present local regression discontinuity evidence highlighting the importance of the counterfactual options available to near-threshold applicants; in UC Berkeley's case, it appears that barely-admitted non-URM students would have otherwise enrolled at similar-quality institutions and thus faced similar long-run outcomes.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
hedgedSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“likely as a result of their now being rejected from the more-selective UC campuses”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.4 UC Applicants' University Enrollment
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Some non-URM applicants' likelihood of admission to more-selective universities likely increased in order to maintain class sizes despite the decline in URM enrollment.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 2. EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“UC's affirmative action policies provided admissions advantages to URM applicants that augmented campuses' standard admissions protocol, which required that 50 percent of students be admitted solely based on their”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.1 University of California Admissions in the 1990s
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Taken together, the increasing application and yield rates, lower admissions rate, and stronger academic preparedness of both the applicant and admitted pools indicate a university system steadily increasing in reputation and selectivity throughout the 1990s.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.3 University of California Descriptive Statistics
hedgedstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While affirmative action is unlikely to be Pareto efficient, two pieces of evidence favor its Kaldor-Hicks efficiency, which in this case requires (to a first-order approximation) that the benefit of more-selective university enrollment is greater for the URM enrollees targeted by affirmative action than for the non-URM students who would have enrolled in their place.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This cascade explains why the proportion of each campus's URM applicants who enroll at that campus only declines at the three more-selective campuses.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.4 UC Applicants' University Enrollment
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Starting in 1998, UC implemented costly school-specific outreach programs to increase enrollment from majority-URM high schools and communities, but those programs wound down after 2001 with little evidence of success in even increasing URM application rates (Atkinson and Pelfrey, 2004; UCOP, 2003).”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.1 University of California Admissions in the 1990s
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Atkinson and Pelfrey, 2004
- Not matchedcites UCOP, 2003
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These findings are inconsistent with the university”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
“A series of online appendices to this paper discuss the limitations of that previous research and reconcile their analysis with this study's baseline findings, which are inconsistent with widespread”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“this suggests that while UC's affirmative action provided substantial long-run wage returns to Hispanic students”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.3 Employment and Wages
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Assuming that these coefficients reflect a decline in URM labor market outcomes, this implies a decline in the number of high-earning URM Californians by over 700 (1,700).”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4.3.1 Contextualizing Prop 209's Labor Market Impact
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference-in-difference coefficients reflect a decline in URM labor market outcomes.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The overall decline in STEM attainment thus appears driven by students who exit these UC campuses following Prop 209.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 5. STEM COURSE PERFORMANCE AND PERSISTENCE
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Second, the previous section shows little evidence that expanding onthe-margin non-URM students' access to UC Berkeley provides economic benefits to those students.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 7. DISCUSSION: THE EFFICIENCY OF AFFIRMATIVE ACTION POLICIES
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These results show that the baseline estimates are highly insensitive to alternative model specifications.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4. APPLICATION DETERRENCE AND MODEL ROBUSTNESS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The presented estimates are reduced-form, averaging over many URM students who were likely unimpacted by the Prop 209 policy change, which means that they likely substantially underestimate the effect of Prop 209 on students whose enrollment was shifted by UC's policy change.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the absence of a clearly unimpacted comparison group challenges the use of the difference-in-difference research design to distinguish non-URM student effects from ancillary economic trends.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 7. DISCUSSION: THE EFFICIENCY OF AFFIRMATIVE ACTION POLICIES
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This suggests that the degree attainment of students targeted by affirmative action was relatively less sensitive to enrollment change.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
hedgedstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“its selectivity and the high wages earned by its graduates imply that its policies may meaningfully impact the composition of California's high-earning workers.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4.3.1 Contextualizing Prop 209's Labor Market Impact
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“implying that Prop 209 caused a decline in the number of such workers among UC applicants by 3 (6) percent.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4.3.1 Contextualizing Prop 209's Labor Market Impact
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“I conclude that there is little reason to treat white and Asian applicants as having been differently-treated by Prop 209, conditional on prior academic opportunities and preparation as measured by the components of AI.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If these estimated returns are externally valid for the non-URM students who crowded into more-selective UC campuses following Prop 209, this implies that non-URM students faced minimal costs from UC's affirmative action policy.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 6. IMPACT OF PROP 209 ON NON-URM APPLICANT OUTCOMES
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, those students would have otherwise enrolled at similar-value institutions on average”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 6. IMPACT OF PROP 209 ON NON-URM APPLICANT OUTCOMES
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The estimates also omit labor market outcomes for (endogenously-selected) non-Californian and self-employed workers.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These findings suggest that selectivity differences between public research universities are at best a second-order determinant of URM students' persistence and performance in STEM courses, providing little support for the STEM Mismatch Hypothesis in this context.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 5. STEM COURSE PERFORMANCE AND PERSISTENCE
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This suggests that the baseline estimates' focus on UC applicants may yield an underestimate of the aggregate labor market effect of Prop 209 for high earners”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4.3.1 Contextualizing Prop 209's Labor Market Impact
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The primary potential threat to the presented research design is that Prop 209 may have dissuaded some URM high school graduates from sending an application to any UC campus -the main estimation sample -which could generate sample selection bias in the baseline difference-in-difference estimates”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4. APPLICATION DETERRENCE AND MODEL ROBUSTNESS
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“three pieces of evidence suggest that the return to more-selective university enrollment is relatively smaller for the non-URM students who enroll at more-selective universities only absent affirmative action.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 7. DISCUSSION: THE EFFICIENCY OF AFFIRMATIVE ACTION POLICIES
hedgedstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These three sets of evidence provide suggestive support for the Kaldor-Hicks efficiency of California's pre-1998 affirmative action policies.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 7. DISCUSSION: THE EFFICIENCY OF AFFIRMATIVE ACTION POLICIES
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“suggesting substantial heterogeneity between and within disciplines.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While the former may partly reflect some UC campuses' early affirmative action phase-out, this variation is more likely the result of ethnicity-specific wage dynamics in the California labor market.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Instead, students' STEM performance, persistence, and degree attainment appear largely explained by compositional differences in prior academic opportunity and preparedness, which are determined before they arrive at university.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 5. STEM COURSE PERFORMANCE AND PERSISTENCE
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While the University of California does not educate enough of the California workforce for its admissions policies to meaningfully shift most moments of the state's aggregate wage distribution”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4.3.1 Contextualizing Prop 209's Labor Market Impact
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“They omit the impacts of Prop 209 on URM Californians dissuaded from UC application by Prop 209, who may also have previously benefited from UC affirmative action.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“However, no previous study has directly examined the impact of affirmative action on URM students' actual course performance and STEM course progression, instead focusing on overall grade point averages and major choice.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 5. STEM COURSE PERFORMANCE AND PERSISTENCE
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [70]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“its labor market benefits to Black Californians may have been small.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.3 Employment and Wages
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Assuming that the presented value-added statistics either approximate or relatively overestimate the average difference in treatment effects of enrolling at those universities, this suggests that the wage effect of more-selective university enrollment for the students impacted by affirmative action is significantly larger than universities' average treatment effect.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 7. DISCUSSION: THE EFFICIENCY OF AFFIRMATIVE ACTION POLICIES
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The presented value-added statistics either approximate or relatively overestimate the average difference in treatment effects of enrolling at those universities.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The difference-in-difference research design discussed above cannot separately identify the impact of Prop 209 on non-URM UC applicants, some of whom may have benefited from the policy change as a result of enrolling at more-selective universities.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 6. IMPACT OF PROP 209 ON NON-URM APPLICANT OUTCOMES
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Race-based affirmative action decreases non-URM student enrollment for each net additional URM student that it causes to enroll.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As a result, differential NSC non-reporting by URM applicants is unlikely to explain the observed degree attainment patterns.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Ending UC's affirmative action program did not lead to an increase in Asian UC applicants' enrollment at those campuses.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“these models do not control for family income or other measures of pre-college opportunity likely correlated with URM status.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Since those factors remained part of UC admissions, it is unsurprising that the presented models still identify advantages for URM applicants despite Prop 209.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The six-year graduation and STEM major choice estimates presented in Panel A of Table 3 are robust when restricted to NSC records only or to NSC records augmented by only UCSC degrees”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Some 1990s NSC records are incomplete”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“there is reason to believe that the presented value-added statistics remain somewhat biased by positive selection into more-selective universities, suggesting that they relatively overestimate differences between universities.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Since UC enrollment declined after Prop 209, this could bias estimates of the impact of Prop 209 on degree attainment toward 0.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: UC enrollment declined after Prop 209.
- It may state two separate claims as one. 53
- Probably not a substantial claim. 19
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“The distribution of applicants is smooth across the threshold, with the McCrary (2008) test yielding a p-value of 0.58 at the threshold.Baseline characteristics are also smooth across the threshold.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 6. IMPACT OF PROP 209 ON NON-URM APPLICANT OUTCOMES
What the sources say
- Supportedcites McCrary (2008) source
The Introduction describes McCrary’s density test for a discontinuity in the running variable at a cutoff. In the citing sentence, “McCrary (2008)” identifies the test used; the p-value of 0.58 and the statements about Berkeley applicants and baseline characteristics are the citing authors’ reported results, not findings attributed to McCrary. (LLM, conf=0.91)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“increased university selectivity tends to decrease students' likelihood of earning STEM degrees along different margins”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Arcidiacono, Aucejo, and Hotz, 2016 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Conclusion reports lower science graduation rates for less-prepared students at more selective UC campuses. But it also finds that more selective campuses have an advantage in graduating better-prepared science students, so the claim is too broad when applied to students generally. The supplied passages do not provide page numbers. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Supportedcites Mountjoy and Hickman, 2020 source
The Introduction states that attending a more selective college has a significantly negative effect on completing a STEM degree. Section 6.1 likewise finds a negative relationship between selectivity and causal value-added for STEM degree completion, while distinguishing it from the positive correlation in raw completion rates. (LLM, conf=0.91)
- Not matchedcites Bleemer, 2018a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Partly supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Compared to academicallycomparable white applicants, Asian applicants enrolled at similar universities and had indistinguishable long-run labor market outcomes after Prop 209, suggesting proportional effects of affirmative action for both groups.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Figure 1 shows that most campuses continued providing large admissions advantages to URM applicants in 1996 and 1997 (though UCLA, Irvine, and Santa Cruz curtailed their programs), but those advantages shrank considerably in 1998.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.1 University of California Admissions in the 1990s
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“After Prop 209, high-AI URM applicants tended to flow from UC's more-selective campuses to less-selective campuses and -especially among Black applicants -elite private universities, while lower-AI URM applicants mostly flowed to less-selective California colleges and universities.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Figure 4 presents estimates from Equation 1 for six-year BA attainment among bottom-AI-quartile applicants, unconditional STEM degree attainment, and graduate degree attainment, showing that all three abruptly and persistently decline in 1998 following Prop 209.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.2 Degree Attainment
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Figure 4 shows that the institutions where URM UC applicants enrolled remained relatively steady in terms of their”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.1 Institutional Quality
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“as were the average scores of students admitted to each campus.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.3 University of California Descriptive Statistics
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Prop 209 also caused a 1.3 percentage point decline in each URM applicant's likelihood of earning a graduate degree, with much of that decline in STEM fields.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The quote only partly states this claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Prop 209 curbed the large admissions advantages provided to all underrepresented minority (URM) UC applicants by affirmative action, with many URM applicants becoming 50 percentage points less likely to earn admission to UC's most selective campuses relative to academically-comparable non-URM applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Employing a regression discontinuity design, I find that students just below Berkeley's admissions threshold nevertheless enrolled at similar-quality universities and ended up with similar educational and labor market outcomes, though the confidence intervals cannot rule out positive treatment effects.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Almost 20 percent of UC applicants were URM in 1997”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.3 University of California Descriptive Statistics
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While I find that before Prop 209 URM UC students earned lower grades and were less likely to persist along introductory STEM course sequences than their non-URM peers, these gaps are largely explained by students' prior academic opportunities and preparedness, not their enrollment institution.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Abstract
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“URM applicants' wages sharply decline between 1997 and 1998, reflecting the impact of Prop 209, but there is also evidence of a decline after 1996 and continued declines between 1998 and 2000.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“there is no further combination of these highly-detailed control functions and covariates that meaningfully changes any of the 𝛽𝛽 98-99 estimates, with the exception of the six-year degree attainment measure growing slightly more negative.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4. APPLICATION DETERRENCE AND MODEL ROBUSTNESS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“URM enrollees STEM performance and persistence were unchanged when their class rank improved; the 95 percent confidence interval around the estimated change in STEM persistence narrowly bounds 0, from -2.3 to 3.5 percentage points, small effects relative to the raw STEM persistence ethnicity gap of 11.2 percentage points before Prop 209.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 5. STEM COURSE PERFORMANCE AND PERSISTENCE
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The last column of Table A-18 shows that before Prop 209, Berkeley's URM students earned lower average grades by 0.77 grade points and were 19 percentage points less likely to persist along STEM course sequences.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While Prop 209 led URM students to enroll at universities with lower early-30s wage value-added by as much as $1,000, those students' actual early-30s annual wages fell by more than $2,000 (see Tables 2 and 4).”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 7. DISCUSSION: THE EFFICIENCY OF AFFIRMATIVE ACTION POLICIES
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In fact, Prop 209 does lead Berkeley's (higher-testing) URM students to earn slightly higher STEM grades (by 0.14 grade points), but if anything their STEM persistence slightly declined.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“URM UC applicants' university enrollment sharply shifted away from UC's more-selective Berkeley and UCLA campuses, causing a cascade of students to enroll at lower-quality public institutions and some private universities.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most of the students would likely have otherwise enrolled at UCLA or UCSD (6.1 percentage points, s.e.3.5) or out-of-state universities (8.0 percentage points, s.e.3.4).”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 6. IMPACT OF PROP 209 ON NON-URM APPLICANT OUTCOMES
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Complementing the previous section's finding that Prop 209 failed to increase URM UC applicants' likelihood of earning a STEM degree -indeed, it led to the opposite effect”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 5. STEM COURSE PERFORMANCE AND PERSISTENCE
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Panels (d) to ( f) of Figure 10 show that graduate school enrollment, early-30s wages, and the number of years spent by each applicant in their early 30s earning over $150,000 per year are smooth across the Berkeley admissions threshold.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 6. IMPACT OF PROP 209 ON NON-URM APPLICANT OUTCOMES
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“UC had 56,300 URM applicants between 1998 and 2002.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4.3.1 Contextualizing Prop 209's Labor Market Impact
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“About 80 percent of URM UC applicants were Hispanic, and those applicants received the full observed wage benefits of UC affirmative action policies,”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These poorer educational outcomes in turn contributed to a five percent average annual decline in applicants' wages throughout their 20s and early 30s, which resulted in a decline in the number of early-career URM Californians earning over $100,000 by at least three percent.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While Black and Hispanic UC applicants faced similar declines in university quality and educational outcomes after Prop 209, and Hispanic UC applicants' wages and wage percentile sharply declined after 1998, there was no observable parallel decline among Black UC applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.3 Employment and Wages
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, single-difference estimates of the baseline outcomes show that non-URM wage outcomes are notably smooth in the years before and after Prop 209, while URM wage outcomes sharply and persistently decline in 1998 (see Figure A-13).”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 7. DISCUSSION: THE EFFICIENCY OF AFFIRMATIVE ACTION POLICIES
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The sum across the scaled statistics suggests that the number of Black and Hispanic UC applicants declined by 12-13 percent (about 1,200 per year), most of whom would have likely been admitted to some UC campus.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4. APPLICATION DETERRENCE AND MODEL ROBUSTNESS
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As expected, including either of these p statistics as covariates in Equation 1 yields statistically-significant negative coefficients (implying negative selection out of UC application), while their inverse mills ratios yield significant positive coefficients.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4. APPLICATION DETERRENCE AND MODEL ROBUSTNESS
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This hypothesis is supported by the finding that the relative decline in URM performance is driven by URM students in the bottom two terciles of SAT scores, with no observed declines among high-or low-GPA high-SAT students (see Table A -19).”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The first panel of Figure 9 shows that Prop 209 caused URM students to enroll in STEM courses in which their average SAT percentile was about four percentage points higher, closing that gap by more than half.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 5. STEM COURSE PERFORMANCE AND PERSISTENCE
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These gaps are fully explained by URM enrollees' poorer prior academic opportunity and preparedness; their performance and persistence was indistinguishable from those of academically-comparable non-URM students across the five UC campuses.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 5. STEM COURSE PERFORMANCE AND PERSISTENCE
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Though Black UC applicants faced a decline in degree attainment after Prop 209, their early-career wages were not observably impacted.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Not every UC-eligible applicant was admitted to a UC campus; many were rejected from each campus to which they applied”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4. APPLICATION DETERRENCE AND MODEL ROBUSTNESS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“White and Asian students were proportionally impacted by Prop 209, with no evidence of disparate impacts for one or the other.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“URM applicants faced similar-magnitude declines in their admissions likelihood at San Diego and Davis, and their admissions advantage fell at every campus.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“conditioning on the set of UC campuses to which applicants were admitted flips the sign of the UC-wide coefficient (to 2.8 percentage points); compared to academically-similar students admitted to the same UC campuses, post-1998 URM students are more likely to enroll at some UC campus.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Admissions and enrollment statistics are slightly larger when estimated relative to the 1994-95 baseline”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While URM applicants were 37 and 27 percentage points more likely than comparable non-URM applicants to be admitted to Berkeley and UCLA under AA”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Figure A-4 shows, for example, that the difference was about 0.25 at UCLA in 1994-95, 0.15 in 1996-97, and less than 0.05 after 1998.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and the components used to construct UC's Academic Index (𝑋𝑋 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 ), which absorb variation in applicants' observed academic preparedness.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 2. EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“Instead, UC's primary policy response to the end of affirmative action was its Eligibility in the Local Context top percent policy, which did not begin until 2001 (Bleemer, 2019a).”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.1 University of California Admissions in the 1990s
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Bleemer, 2019a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“with URM students from more-selective schools taking the less-selective university seats previously held by lower-AI URM students rejected in the absence of affirmative action, who themselves take the seats of other URM students who formerly enrolled at even less-selective universities.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 1.4 UC Applicants' University Enrollment
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Each model includes high school fixed effects 𝛼𝛼 ℎ 𝑖𝑖 , which absorb spurious cross-school application and outcome variation”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 2. EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“if UC campuses' enrollment did not respond to Prop 209, every one percentage point average decrease in URM applicants' enrollment likelihood corresponds to almost a 0.25 percentage point average increase in non-URM applicants' enrollment likelihood.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 2. EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- The authors state this as an assumption: UC campuses' enrollment did not respond to Prop 209.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It remains possible that the 𝛽𝛽 𝑖𝑖 estimates reflect sample selection bias resulting from the impact of Prop 209 on the composition of UC applicants”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 2. EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“No UC campus implemented any substantial unrelated changes in their admissions processes in this period.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 2. EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While Pareto efficiency is very unlikely in this context -even a single non-URM student benefiting from more-selective enrollment as a result of Prop 209 would prove the policy's inefficiency”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 7. DISCUSSION: THE EFFICIENCY OF AFFIRMATIVE ACTION POLICIES
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In 1996 and 1997 Berkeley guaranteed admission to applicants above an annually-determined AI threshold.77 Admissions officers then admitted some lower-AI applicants based on other application characteristics.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 6. IMPACT OF PROP 209 ON NON-URM APPLICANT OUTCOMES
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [77]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Because applicants near Berkeley's admissions threshold are quasi-randomly located on one or the other side of the threshold, differentiated by small test score or grade differences, I interpret outcome differences on either side of the threshold as resulting from the above-threshold applicants' greater access to UC Berkeley.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 6. IMPACT OF PROP 209 ON NON-URM APPLICANT OUTCOMES
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While gap may be partially explained by positively-selected Black students' greater likelihood of exiting California to enroll at Ivy+ and other highly-selective private universities”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 3.3 Employment and Wages
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“An alternative hypothesis is that SAT scores are relatively negatively-biased measures of low-testing URM students' academic preparedness, such that Berkeley's selection away from those students causes a decline in URM enrollees' relative overperformance (Vars and Bowen, 1998; Niu and Tienda, 2010).”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Vars and Bowen, 1998
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Niu and Tienda, 2010
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“diverse evidence suggest that those impacted non-URM students -whose more-selective university enrollment increased following Prop 209 -already had access to similar-quality universities even without broader UC admissions, and that their more-selective enrollment following Prop 209 had relatively small long-run effects on their economic outcomes.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“There are few remaining unobservables that could contribute to selection bias in this case -while applicants' academic, demographic, and socioeconomic status and cross-school application behavior are observed in detail, orthogonal dimensions of their high school leadership activities remain unobserved -and it appears very likely that the magnitude of remaining bias is small.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 4. APPLICATION DETERRENCE AND MODEL ROBUSTNESS
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nevertheless, this study documents the meaningful potential of affirmative action policies to promote economic mobility in the US -though perhaps not to close white-black mobility gaps -and the consequences of the policies' prohibition.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
boostedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Berkeley chose its annual threshold so that 50 percent of its admitted applicants had AI above the threshold.As a result, the threshold could not be chosen until after Berkeley observed all applicants' AIs, prohibiting applicants from manipulating their AI to exceed the threshold (as occurred at UC Davis, another institution with a contemporaneous admissions threshold).”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 6. IMPACT OF PROP 209 ON NON-URM APPLICANT OUTCOMES
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The targeted URM students, on the other hand, received substantially above-average wage returns to more-selective university enrollment under affirmative action, and thus faced disproportionate declines after Prop 209.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the observed effects suggest that on-themargin non-URM students have access to alternative similar-value universities, and switching enrollment to UC Berkeley provides little measurable long-run economic return.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 6. IMPACT OF PROP 209 ON NON-URM APPLICANT OUTCOMES
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These results strikingly differ from several existing estimates of the impact of affirmative action, even those focusing on Prop 209's effect at the University of California, and highlight the importance of high-quality and detailed administrative data and a transparent research design to account for sample selection and omitted variable bias.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Moreover, this concern does not extend to the graduate degree estimates; most such degrees are not earned at the same institutions where applicants earned their undergraduate degrees, and NSC coverage was very wide by the time applicants in the sample were earning graduate degrees.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The two lines poorly mirror each other, suggesting both that VA poorly-explains and substantially underestimates the observed labor market effects of Prop 209.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
hedgedstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Among enrollees, the verified social security number differs from that reported on their application in fewer than 0.25 percent of cases.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Grades may differ across classes as a result of grade inflation, but I cannot separately identify inflation from actual differences in mean crossclass performance differences.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 5. STEM COURSE PERFORMANCE AND PERSISTENCE
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“All employment results are replicated from institutional research conducted at the UC Office of the President”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Bleemer (2019b)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Social security numbers on UC applications are not verified unless the student enrolls at a UC campus.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Dynarski, Hemelt, and Hyman (2015) show that national NSC enrollment coverage at four-year institutions was below 50 percent in 1996, rising to over 80 percent by 2000.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > Additional information
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Dynarski, Hemelt, and Hyman (2015)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“About nine percent of near-threshold students have no observed four-year enrollment, with only one percent enrolling at a community college but no four-year institution within six years.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Family income is not reported by about 15 percent of applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“$150,000 is a better indicator of unusually high earnings, achieved in an average 0.60 out of 5 years for in-sample applicants.”
§ AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, MISMATCH, AND ECONOMIC MOBILITY AFTER CALIFORNIA'S PROPOSITION 209 > 8. CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
Non-URM applicants can serve as a valid control group for URM applicants after Prop 209, despite potential crowd-in effects.
“Non-URM applicants may not represent a traditional”
The paper relies on this without support.
Many URM UC applicants would have enrolled at the same institution whether or not affirmative action was operative.
“These estimated effects are averaged across every URM UC applicant, many of whom likely would have enrolled at the same institution whether or not affirmative action was operative.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The true distribution of AI across school-year-ethnicity cohorts remains unchanged over time.
“implicitly assuming that the true distribution of AI across school-year-ethnicity cohorts remains unchanged over time.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The difference-in-difference coefficients reflect a decline in URM labor market outcomes.
“Assuming that these coefficients reflect a decline in URM labor market outcomes”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Each UC applicant's admission is small relative to the size and composition of the applicant pool.
“Admit estimates implicitly assume that each UC applicant's admission is small relative to the size and composition of”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Universities' treatment effects for on-the-margin URM and non-URM students are equal.
“If universities' treatment effects for on-the-margin URM and non-URM students are equal”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Prop 209's monotonicity holds.
“assuming Prop 209's monotonicity”
The authors state this as an assumption.
UC campuses' enrollment did not respond to Prop 209.
“if UC campuses' enrollment did not respond to Prop 209”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Admit estimates implicitly assume that each UC applicant's admission is small relative to the size and composition of the applicant pool.
“Admit estimates implicitly assume that each UC applicant's admission is small relative to the size and composition of the applicant pool.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The presented value-added statistics either approximate or relatively overestimate the average difference in treatment effects of enrolling at those universities.
“Assuming that the presented value-added statistics either approximate or relatively overestimate the average difference in treatment effects of enrolling at those universities”
The paper relies on this without support.
About one-third of UC students transfer from community colleges rather than applying as freshmen.
“About one-third of UC students transfer from community colleges rather than applying as freshmen.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Missing-ethnicity applicants are non-URM.
“These results justify the assumption in the baseline analysis that missing-ethnicity applicants are non-URM.”
The paper relies on this without support.
UC enrollment declined after Prop 209.
“Since UC enrollment declined after Prop 209”
Citations
Cites
Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error
Heckman, J. J. (1979) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1912352 · Cited by 28,779
Manipulation of the Running Variable in the Regression Discontinuity Design: A Density Test,
McCrary, J. (2008) · Journal of Econometrics · doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.005 · Cited by 3,600
Robust nonparametric confidence intervals for regression-discontinuity designs
Calonico, S., Cattaneo, M. D., & Titiunik, R. (2014) · Econometrica · doi:10.3982/ecta11757 · Cited by 3,036
Chetty, R., Hendren, N., & Katz, L. F. (2016) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20150572 · Cited by 2,315
When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?
Abadie, A., Athey, S. C., Imbens, G. W., & Wooldridge, J. M. (2017) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w24003 · Cited by 1,409
Dale, S. B., & Krueger, A. B. (2002) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355302320935089 · Cited by 995
Manipulation of the Running Variable in the Regression Discontinuity Design: A Density Test
McCrary, J. (2007) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/t0334 · Cited by 959
Peer Effects in Education: How Might They Work, How Big Are They and How Much Do We Know Thus Far?
Sacerdote, B. (2011) · Handbook of the economics of education · doi:10.1016/b978-0-444-53429-3.00004-1 · Cited by 875
Ability sorting and the returns to college major
Arcidiacono, P. S. (2003) · Journal of Econometrics · doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2003.10.010 · Cited by 851
Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: an Intergenerational Perspective*
Chetty, R., Hendren, N., Jones, M. R., & Porter, S. R. (2020) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjz042 · Cited by 842
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- Johnson, 2019, Children of the Dream: Why School Integration Works
- Juhn, 1991), Accounting for the Slowdown in Black-White Wage Convergence, 107
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Chetty, R., Deming, D. J., & Friedman, J. N. (2023) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w31492 · Cited by 138
Bleemer, Z., & Mehta, A. S. (2022) · American Economic Journal Applied Economics · doi:10.1257/app.20200447 · Cited by 83
Self-citationLy, D. P., Essien, U. R., Olenski, A. R., & Jena, A. B. (2022) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/m21-4312 · Cited by 55
The Costs of Employment Segregation: Evidence from the Federal Government Under Woodrow Wilson
Aneja, A., & Xu, G. (2021) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjab040 · Cited by 53
Black, S. E., Denning, J. T., & Rothstein, J. M. (2022) · American Economic Journal Applied Economics · doi:10.1257/app.20200137 · Cited by 44
Metadata
- Authors
- Bleemer, Z.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Corresponding author
- Bleemer, Zachary
- ORCID
- Bleemer, Zachary
- Venue
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2021-09-01
- Volume
- 137
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 115-160
- ISSN
- 0033-5533 (ISSN-L)
- 1531-4650
- OpenAlex
- W3135767981
- Semantic Scholar
- 936e1e4588aee40d43dd49d83a6f8370c26fcfe8
- Cited by
- 149
- References
- 62
- Citations by year
- 2026: 21 · 2025: 32 · 2024: 24 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 21 · 2021: 4
- FWCI
- 35.48
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Licence
- academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model (vor)
- Locations
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics (publishedVersion)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- National Academy of Education
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › Higher Education Research Studies
- Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Intergenerational and Educational Inequality Studies
- Keywords
- affirmative action, Proposition 209, California public universities, mismatch hypothesis, underrepresented minority students, university admission, educational attainment, STEM degree attainment, wage outcomes, Hispanic students, racial discrimination in higher education
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-11-04, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-11-04 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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