Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: an Intergenerational Perspective*

Blacks marry at much lower rates than whites.

“It is well known that blacks marry at much lower rates than whites (e.g., Raley, Sweeney, and Wondra 2015).”

• cites Raley, Sweeney, and Wondra 2015 sourceSupported

Controlling for marital status has a larger effect when not controlling for parent income, reducing the unconditional black-white gap from 17.6 to 13.3 percentiles.

“Controlling for marital status has a larger effect when we do not control for parent income, reducing the unconditional black-white gap from 17.6 to 13.3 percentiles (Online Appendix Figure VII), consistent with Autor et al. (2019).”

• cites Autor et al. (2019) sourcePartly supported

  The cited paper reports that accounting for maternal education and marital status reduces the black–white difference in the boy–girl high-school graduation gap (Section 3.2, p. 21). That supports a general connection between family structure and racial differences in outcomes, but it does not establish the citing sentence’s income-control comparison or its 17.6-to-13.3-percentile estimate; the sentence attributes that estimate to its own Online Appendix Figure VII. (LLM, conf=0.84)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

The finding that neighborhood effects on racial gaps are proportional to childhood exposure is consistent with prior evidence documenting the emergence of racial gaps in achievement in childhood and the importance of pre-labor-market measures in explaining racial gaps in labor market outcomes.

“The finding that neighborhood effects on racial gaps are proportional to childhood exposure is consistent with prior evidence documenting the emergence of racial gaps in achievement in childhood (Fryer and Levitt 2004) and the importance of pre-labor-market measures in explaining racial gaps in labor market outcomes (Neal and Johnson 1996; Altonji and Blank 1999; Fryer 2010).”

• cites Fryer and Levitt 2004 sourceSupported
• cites Neal and Johnson 1996; Altonji and Blank 1999; Fryer 2010Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Controlling for parental marital status reduces black-white intergenerational gaps for men only slightly, from 10 percentiles to 9.3 percentiles.

“Controlling for parental marital status reduces black-white intergenerational gaps for men only slightly, from 10 percentiles to 9.3 percentiles.”

Even among women born to high-income parents, for whom employment rates are around 90%, wages are very similar for blacks and whites.

“First, even among women born to high-income parents-for whom employment rates are around 90%-wages are very similar for blacks and whites.”

Among children with parents at the 25th percentile, the black-white gap in high school completion rates is 3.5 percentage points for women versus 8.3 percentage points for men.

“Among children with parents at the 25th percentile, the black-white gap in high school completion rates is 3.5 percentage points for women versus 8.3 percentage points for men (Figure VII, Panels A and B).”

There is substantial variation across tracts within CZs in both black and white boys' outcomes.

“We find substantial variation across tracts within CZs in both black and white boys' outcomes.”

Black father presence at the neighborhood level strongly predicts black boys' outcomes irrespective of whether their own father is present.

“Black father presence at the neighborhood level strongly predicts black boys' outcomes irrespective of whether their own father is present, echoing the findings of Sampson (1987).”

• cites Sampson (1987) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

The black-white gap persists even among boys who grow up in the same neighborhood.

“Third, the black-white gap persists even among boys who grow up in the same neighborhood.”

Hispanics' current income distributions are closer to those of blacks and American Indians than to whites.

“But Hispanics' current income distributions are closer to those of blacks and Americans Indians than whites (Online Appendix Figure II).”

Hispanic Americans have rates of intergenerational mobility more similar to whites than blacks.

“Hispanic Americans have rates of intergenerational mobility more similar to whites than blacks, leading the Hispanic-white income gap to shrink across generations.”

White children at the bottom of the income distribution are as likely to be married as black children at the 97th percentile of the parental income distribution.

“White children at the bottom of the income distribution are as likely to be married as black children at the 97th percentile of the parental income distribution.”

Black males who move to such neighborhoods earlier in childhood have significantly better outcomes.

“Black males who move to such neighborhoods earlier in childhood have significantly better outcomes.”

Conditional on parent income, the black-white income gap is driven by differences in wages and employment rates between black and white men.

“Conditional on parent income, the black-white income gap is driven by differences in wages and employment rates between black and white men; there are no such differences between black and white women.”

The employment rates of black men with parents at the 75th percentile are comparable to those of white men with parents at the 9th percentile.

“The employment rates of black men with parents at the 75th percentile are comparable to those of white men with parents at the 9th percentile.”

Less than 5% of black children grow up in such areas.

“However, less than 5% of black children grow up in such areas.”

The conditional expectation of children's mean ranks given their parents' ranks is approximately linear for all races.

“We show in our empirical analysis that the conditional expectation of children's mean ranks given their parents' ranks is approximately linear for all races.”

There are significantly smaller black-white intergenerational gaps in individual income, of approximately 5 percentiles instead of the 13 percentile gap in household income.

“We find significantly smaller black-white intergenerational gaps in individual income, of approximately 5 percentiles instead of the 13 percentile gap in household income.”

Rates of intergenerational mobility for American Indians are very similar to those for blacks.

“Rates of intergenerational mobility for American Indians are very similar to those for blacks.”

Asians have much higher rates of relative mobility than all other groups, with β = 0.18.

“Asians have much higher rates of relative mobility than all other groups, with β = 0.18.”

White children born to parents at the 25th percentile of the income distribution reach the 45th percentile on average.

“For example, white children born to parents at the 25th percentile of the income distribution reach the 45th percentile on average, whereas Hispanic children born to parents at the 25th percentile reach the 43rd percentile on average.”

The black-white intergenerational gap remains substantial even after controlling for differences in parental wealth.

“The blackwhite intergenerational gap remains substantial even after controlling for differences in parental wealth, both when controlling directly for wealth proxies such as home value observed in the ACS data as well as when adjusting for differences in total wealth using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF).”

Hispanic children born to parents at the 25th percentile reach the 43rd percentile on average.

“For example, white children born to parents at the 25th percentile of the income distribution reach the 45th percentile on average, whereas Hispanic children born to parents at the 25th percentile reach the 43rd percentile on average.”

Differences in parental marital status, education, and wealth explain little of the black-white income gap conditional on parent income.

“Second, differences in parental marital status, education, and wealth explain little of the black-white income gap conditional on parent income.”

Asians are not exceptional in having higher rates of absolute and relative mobility among immigrants than natives.

“Asians are not exceptional in having higher rates of absolute and relative mobility among immigrants than natives.”

Black women have 1 percentile higher individual income ranks than white women conditional on parental income.

“In contrast, black women have 1 percentile higher individual income ranks than white women conditional on parental income.”

Controlling for differences in parental education does not affect the black-white intergenerational gap significantly.

“Controlling for differences in parental education also does not affect the black-white intergenerational gap significantly.”

There are large intergenerational gaps even between black and white men who grow up in the same Census tract or block.

“We continue to find large intergenerational gaps even between black and white men who grow up in the same Census tract (containing 4,256 people on average) or block (containing 50 people on average).”

A black child born to parents in the top quintile is roughly as likely to fall to the bottom family income quintile as he or she is to remain in the top quintile.

“Indeed, a black child born to parents in the top quintile is roughly as likely to fall to the bottom family income quintile as he or she is to remain in the top quintile; in contrast, white children are nearly five times as likely to remain in the top quintile as they are to fall to the bottom quintile.”

Black Americans and American Indians have much lower rates of upward mobility than whites.

“First, black Americans and American Indians have much lower rates of upward mobility and higher rates of downward mobility than whites, leading to persistent disparities across generations.”

White children are nearly five times as likely to remain in the top quintile as they are to fall to the bottom quintile.

“Indeed, a black child born to parents in the top quintile is roughly as likely to fall to the bottom family income quintile as he or she is to remain in the top quintile; in contrast, white children are nearly five times as likely to remain in the top quintile as they are to fall to the bottom quintile.”

There are substantial black-white gaps in nearly every CZ.

“However, there are substantial black-white gaps in nearly every CZ.”

Black children starting from families in the top quintile have nearly the same chances of falling to the bottom income quintile (16.7%) as they do of staying in the top quintile.

“Perhaps most strikingly, black children starting from families in the top quintile have nearly the same chances of falling to the bottom income quintile (16.7%) as they do of staying in the top quintile.”

Hispanics have rates of intergenerational mobility (among authorized immigrants and citizens) similar to those of whites, especially at the bottom of the income distribution.

“Hispanics have rates of intergenerational mobility (among authorized immigrants and citizens) similar to those of whites, especially at the bottom of the income distribution.”

The few areas with small black-white gaps tend to be low-poverty neighborhoods with low levels of racial bias among whites and high rates of father presence among blacks.

“The few areas with small black-white gaps tend to be low-poverty neighborhoods with low levels of racial bias among whites and high rates of father presence among blacks.”

There are gaps for men of about 11 percentiles across the parental income distribution.

“We find gaps for men of about 11 percentiles across the parental income distribution.”

Black Americans and American Indians have higher rates of downward mobility than whites.

“First, black Americans and American Indians have much lower rates of upward mobility and higher rates of downward mobility than whites, leading to persistent disparities across generations.”

Among children with parents in the top quintile, 41.1% of white children remain in the top quintile, compared with 18.0% of black children.

“Among children with parents in the top quintile, 41.1% of white children remain in the top quintile, compared with 18.0% of black children.”

White children with parents at the 100th income percentile have a mean rank of 74.0.

“for instance, white children with parents at the 100th income percentile have a mean rank of 74.0.”

The mean intergenerational gap in individual income ranks between black and white boys with parents at the 25th percentile remains at 7.7 percentiles with tract fixed effects and 7.0 percentiles with block fixed effects.

“The mean intergenerational gap in individual income ranks between black and white boys with parents at the 25th percentile remains at 7.7 percentiles with tract fixed effects and 7.0 percentiles with block fixed effects.”

Intergenerational mobility and the persistence of disparities vary significantly across racial groups.

“We find that intergenerational mobility and the persistence of disparities vary significantly across racial groups.”

Black women earn about 1 percentile more than white women conditional on parent income.

“In contrast, black women earn about 1 percentile more than white women conditional on parent income.”

Hispanic parents and children in the sample have mean ranks of 36.2 and 45.7 percentiles, respectively.

“Hispanic parents and children in our sample have a mean rank of 36.2 and 45.7 percentiles, respectively.”

The exceptional outcomes of low-income Asian children are largely driven by first-generation immigrants.

“However, the exceptional outcomes of lowincome Asian children are largely driven by first-generation immigrants.”

The mean rank of American Indian children is 36.7, showing that they are very close to their steady state if rates of mobility do not change.

“The FIGURE III (Continued) mean rank of American Indian children is 36.7,showing that they too are very close to their steady state if rates of mobility do not change (Figure II, Panel B).”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Rates of intergenerational mobility remain constant across generations.

Black children with parents at the 25th percentile reach an income rank of 32.6 on average, 12.6 percentiles below white children born to parents with comparable incomes.

“For example, black children with parents at the 25th percentile reach an income rank of 32.6 on average, 12.6 percentiles below white children born to parents with comparable incomes.”

Restricting the sample to Asians whose mothers were born in the United States, intergenerational gaps between Asians and whites are approximately 2 percentiles on average across the parental income distribution.

“Restricting the sample to Asians whose mothers were born in the United States, we find intergenerational gaps between Asians and whites of approximately 2 percentiles on average across the parental income distribution.”

The intergenerational gap in individual income is 10 percentiles for black men across the parental income distribution.

“The intergenerational gap in individual income is 10 percentiles for black men across the parental income distribution.”

For whites, relative mobility slope is β_w = 0.32: a 10 percentile increase in parents' rank is associated with a 3.2 percentile increase in children's rank on average.

“For whites, we estimate a slope (relative mobility) of β w = 0.32: a 10 percentile increase in parents' rank is associated with a 3.2 percentile increase in children's rank on average.”

There are large intergenerational gaps between black and American Indian children relative to white children.

“In contrast to Hispanics and Asians, there are large intergenerational gaps between black and American Indian children relative to white children.”

Black children have substantially lower marriage rates across the parental income distribution, with a gap of 32 percentage points for children with parents at the 25th percentile and 34 percentage points at the 75th percentile.

“Black children have substantially lower marriage rates across the parental income distribution, with a gap of 32 percentage points for children with parents at the 25th percentile and 34 percentage points at the 75th percentile.”

The smaller gap in children's individual incomes in Figure IV, Panel B masks substantial heterogeneity by gender.

“However, the smaller gap in children's individual incomes in Figure IV, Panel B masks substantial heterogeneity by gender.”

White and Hispanic children have fairly similar rates of intergenerational mobility.

“White and Hispanic children have fairly similar rates of intergenerational mobility.”

Black women have higher college attendance rates than white men, conditional on parental income.

“Black women have higher college attendance rates than white men, conditional on parental income.”

Controlling for parental income, black boys have lower incomes in adulthood than white boys in 99% of Census tracts.

“Controlling for parental income, black boys have lower incomes in adulthood than white boys in 99% of Census tracts.”

• Also stated in: § I. INTRODUCTION · plain

  “Among children with parents at the 25th percentile, black boys have lower incomes in adulthood than white boys in 99% of Census tracts.”

Both blacks and American Indians have rank-rank mobility curves that are shifted down relative to whites across the entire parental income distribution by approximately 13 percentiles.

“Both blacks and American Indians have rank-rank mobility curves that are shifted down relative to whites across the entire parental income distribution by approximately 13 percentiles.”

The black-white intergenerational gap is significantly smaller for boys who grow up in certain neighborhoods-those with low poverty rates, low levels of racial bias among whites, and high rates of father presence among low-income blacks.

“the black-white intergenerational gap is significantly smaller for boys who grow up in certain neighborhoods-those with low poverty rates, low levels of racial bias among whites, and high rates of father presence among low-income blacks.”

The effect of growing up in a low-poverty area is larger for whites than blacks.

“Intuitively, both black and white boys have higher incomes in low-poverty areas, but the effect of growing up in a low-poverty area is larger for whites than blacks.”

There are substantial black-white disparities in incarceration even at the top of the parental income distribution.

“But there are substantial disparities even at the top of the parental income distribution.”

The association between black father presence and black boys' earnings outcomes is strong whether or not adulthood tract fixed effects are included.

“The association between black father presence and black boys' earnings outcomes is strong whether or not we include adulthood tract fixed effects (column (8) versus ( 9)).”

The association between black boys' outcomes and neighborhood-level presence of black fathers remains strong when conditioning on the child's parents' marital status.

“Columns ( 4) and ( 5) show that the association between black boys' outcomes and neighborhood-level presence of black fathers remains strong when we condition on the child's parents' marital status, by restricting the sample either to children raised in a single parent family (column (4)) or a two-parent family (column (5)).”

Among all the characteristics in Figure XI, the fraction of low-income black fathers present is most predictive of smaller intergenerational gaps.

“Among all the characteristics in Figure XI, the fraction of low-income black fathers present is most predictive of smaller intergenerational gaps.”

In counties with a one standard deviation higher level of racial bias against blacks among whites, black men grow up to have mean income ranks that are 0.8 percentiles lower.

“In counties with a one std.dev.higher level of racial bias against blacks among whites, black men grow up to have mean income ranks that are 0.8 percentiles lower.”

The unconditional difference in white and black children's mean individual income ranks is 17.6 percentiles for males and 4.8 percentiles for females.

“This unconditional gap is 17.6 percentiles for males and 4.8 percentiles for females.”

In these areas, black men growing up in low-income (p = 25) families have mean income ranks in adulthood above the 50th percentile.

“In these areas, black men growing up in low-income (p = 25) families have mean income ranks in adulthood above the 50th percentile.”

A small number of variables are associated with smaller black-white intergenerational gaps.

“However, a small number of variables are associated with smaller gaps, which we now investigate in further detail.”

There is a strong positive association between black father presence and black boys' earnings outcomes when using the count-based measure of black father presence from the 2000 Census.

“Column (6) shows that we continue to find a strong positive association between black father presence and black boys' earnings outcomes when we use the count-based measure of black father presence defined above from the 2000 Census.”

The negative correlation between racial bias and black boys' income ranks is driven entirely by variation in the degree of racial bias among whites.

“As one might expect, the negative correlation is driven entirely by variation in the degree of racial bias among whites.”

Black boys' employment rates are significantly higher in tracts with higher levels of black father presence.

“black boys' employment rates (measured as having positive income in the tax data in either 2014 or 2015) are significantly higher in tracts with higher levels of black father presence.”

The predicted steady-state mean rank for whites under the model in Section II is 54.4.

“the predicted steady-state mean rank for whites under the model in Section II is ȳSS w = 54.4”

Black women continue to have substantially lower levels of household income than white women.

“This is because black women continue to have substantially lower levels of household income than white women, both because they are less likely to be married and because black men earn less than white men (Online Appendix Figure V).”

• cites Online Appendix Figure VNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

There is no association between black father presence and white males' outcomes.

“In contrast, we find no association between black father presence and white males' outcomes.”

Low-income white males also have lower incomes if they grow up in areas with greater racial bias against blacks.

“Perhaps more surprisingly, column (5) shows that low-income white males also have lower incomes if they grow up in areas with greater racial bias against blacks.”

Black boys do especially well in low-poverty neighborhoods with a large fraction of fathers at home in black families and low levels of racial bias among whites.

“Black boys do especially well in lowpoverty neighborhoods with a large fraction of fathers at home in black families and low levels of racial bias among whites.”

The tracts where black men do well are dispersed across the country rather than concentrated in a particular city or region.

“The tracts where black men do well are dispersed across the country rather than concentrated in a particular city or region.”

Black women are less likely to be married than white women.

“This is because black women continue to have substantially lower levels of household income than white women, both because they are less likely to be married and because black men earn less than white men (Online Appendix Figure V).”

• cites Online Appendix Figure VNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

The corresponding estimate for white males is 0.026 per year of exposure.

“The corresponding estimate for white males is 0.026 per year of exposure.”

The corresponding coefficient on the change in predicted income ranks for white men is -0.003 (std.err.= 0.004), controlling for the predicted income rank of black men.

“In contrast, the corresponding coefficient on the change in predicted income ranks for white men is -0.003 (std.err.= 0.004), controlling for the predicted income rank of black men.”

Black-white test score gaps do not vary significantly by gender.

“However, black-white test score gaps do not vary significantly by gender.”

The wealth proxies account for about two-thirds of the black-white wealth gap: controlling for the proxies reduces the estimated black-white wealth gap by 64%.

“Our proxies account for about two-thirds of the black-white wealth gap: controlling for the proxies reduces the estimated black-white wealth gap by 64%.”

Correlations with racial bias are not gender-specific: black females also have lower incomes in places that are more racially biased against blacks.

“Column (4) shows that in contrast to the pattern for father presence, correlations with racial bias are not gender-specific: black females also have lower incomes in places that are more racially biased against blacks.”

Moving one year later in childhood to an area where black boys have 1 percentile higher incomes in adulthood reduces a black boy's income rank by -0.029 (std.err.= 0.004).

“In particular, moving one year later in childhood to an area where black boys have 1 percentile higher incomes in adulthood reduces a black boy's income rank by -0.029 (std.err.= 0.004).”

The correction for imperfect measurement of wealth has a slightly larger effect at the 75th percentile, reducing the estimated black-white gap from 11 to 10.2 percentiles.

“The correction for imperfect measurement of wealth has a slightly larger effect at the 75th percentile of the national income distribution, reducing the estimated black-white gap from 11 to 10.2 percentiles.”

Black boys who move to such areas at younger ages have significantly better outcomes.

“Black boys who move to such areas at younger ages have significantly better outcomes”

Every year of childhood a black boy grows up in a place where black boys grow up to have 1 percentile higher incomes increases his own income by 0.027 percentiles.

“We estimate that every year of childhood a black boy grows up in a place where black boys grow up to have 1 percentile higher incomes increases his own income by 0.027 percentiles.”

Results remain similar when state fixed effects are included.

“Column (3) shows that results remain similar when we include state fixed effects, showing that the pattern is not just driven by differences across regions.”

21% of black males born to parents in the lowest-income (bottom 1%) families were incarcerated on April 1, 2010, when they were between ages 27 and 32.

“Figure VII, Panel E shows that 21% of black males born to parents in the lowest-income (bottom 1%) families were incarcerated on April 1, 2010 (when they are between the ages of 27 and 32).”

The entire distribution of black women's wage rates and hours of work is very similar to the corresponding distributions for whites, conditional on parent income.

“This is true not just for means: the entire distribution of black womens' wage rates and hours of work is very similar to the corresponding distributions for whites, conditional on parent income (not reported).”

The subset of neighborhoods in which the average rank of low-income black boys is above the 50th percentile almost all have poverty rates below 10%.

“The subset of neighborhoods in which the average rank of low-income black boys is above the 50th percentile almost all have poverty rates below 10% (demarcated by the dashed line on the figure), which is approximately the median (population-weighted) poverty rate across tracts in the United States.”

Controlling for parental marital status in equation (5) has a small effect on the intergenerational gap in income.

“The third set of bars in Figure VIII, Panels A and B show that controlling for parental marital status in equation ( 5) has a small effect on the intergenerational gap in income.”

Controlling for wealth proxies reduces the black-white intergenerational income gap modestly for males, from 9.1 to 8.4 percentiles at p = 25.

“Controlling for these proxies reduces the black-white intergenerational income gap modestly for males, from 9.1 to 8.4 percentiles at p = 25.”

The black-white intergenerational gaps remain similar to the estimates obtained from equation (5) when replicating Figure V, Panel A separately for boys in single- and two-parent families.

“The black-white intergenerational gaps remain similar to the estimates obtained from equation (5) in both of these groups.”

In Figure X, Panel A, correlations between neighborhood characteristics and children's outcomes are generally larger for whites than for blacks.

“The correlations in Figure X, Panel A are generally larger for whites than for blacks.”

There is a strong positive association between black father presence and black males' incomes.

“Consistent with the correlation in Figure XI, we find a strong positive association between black father presence and black males' incomes.”

Moves earlier in childhood to the very best neighborhoods for black men (e.g., the top 10% of neighborhoods in terms of upward mobility) produce gains commensurate to what one would predict based on the average exposure effect estimates.

“This is true not just on average but also in the tails of the distribution: moves earlier in childhood to the very best neighborhoods for black men (e.g., the top 10% of neighborhoods in terms of upward mobility) produce gains commensurate to what one would predict based on the average exposure effect estimates discussed above.”

Children who grow up in a tract with 10 percentage points more low-income black fathers present have incomes that are 0.5 percentiles higher on average.

“Children who grow up in a tract with 10 percentage points more low-income black fathers present have incomes that are 0.5 percentiles higher on average, consistent with Figure XII, Panel A.”

The mean black-white intergenerational gap increases by 2.5 percentiles when moving from the highest poverty neighborhoods to the lowest poverty neighborhoods.

“The mean intergenerational gap increases by 2.5 percentiles when moving from the highest poverty neighborhoods to the lowest poverty neighborhoods.”

Black men have the poorest outcomes in neighborhoods such as Englewood in the South Side of Chicago and parts of South Los Angeles, where their mean income ranks in adulthood are around the 30th percentile.

“Black men have the poorest outcomes in neighborhoods such as Englewood in the South Side of Chicago and parts of South Los Angeles, where their mean income ranks in adulthood are around the 30th percentile.”

Most of the tract-level characteristics examined are associated with larger black-white intergenerational gaps.

“Mirroring the pattern documented above, most of the tractlevel characteristics we examine are associated with larger blackwhite intergenerational gaps.”

The exposure effect for white males is 0.025.

“We find a slightly smaller exposure effect of 0.025 for white males.”

6.4% of white males born to parents with comparable income were incarcerated.

“In contrast, 6.4% of white males born to parents with comparable income were incarcerated.”

Neighborhood characteristics associated with better outcomes for black boys are associated with larger intergenerational gaps relative to whites.

“That is, neighborhood characteristics associated with better outcomes for black boys are associated with larger intergenerational gaps relative to whites.”

Black boys who grow up in areas with high father presence are less likely to be incarcerated.

“Panel C shows that black boys who grow up in areas with high father presence are also less likely to be incarcerated.”

Black boys are 0.033 percentage points more likely to be incarcerated for every year of childhood exposure to a place with 1 percentage point higher incarceration rates for black males.

“Black boys are 0.033 percentage points more likely to be incarcerated for every year of childhood exposure to a place with 1 percentage point higher incarceration rates for black males.”

Incarceration rates are very low for both black and white females across the parental income distribution.

“In contrast, incarceration rates are very low for both black and white females across the parental income distribution (Figure VII, Panel F).”

Black men born to parents in the top 1% have individual earnings ranks 10.2 percentiles below those of white men.

“2.2% of black men born to parents in the top 1% are incarcerated, yet their individual earnings ranks are 10.2 percentiles below those of white men.”

The b_m coefficients decline until approximately age 23, after which the coefficients are flat.

“The b m coefficients decline until approximately age 23, after which the coefficients are flat.”

Black boys who grow up in low-income (p = 25) families in media markets with greater racial animus have lower incomes in adulthood.

“Black boys who grow up in lowincome (p = 25) families in media markets with greater racial animus have lower incomes in adulthood (column (6)).”

As parental income rises, incarceration rates decline for both white and black males.

“As parental income rises, the incarceration rates decline for both white and black males.”

Black men earn less than white men.

“This is because black women continue to have substantially lower levels of household income than white women, both because they are less likely to be married and because black men earn less than white men (Online Appendix Figure V).”

• cites Online Appendix Figure VNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress show that the black-white gap in test scores at age 9 for low-income children is 0.48 std.dev. for boys versus 0.44 std.dev. for girls.

“Data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress show that the black-white gap in test scores at age 9 for low-income (free-or reduced-price lunch-eligible) children is 0.48 std.dev.for boys versus 0.44 std.dev.for girls (Online Appendix Figure VIII).”

• cites Online Appendix Figure VIIINot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

The neighborhoods in which low-income black boys have high rates of upward mobility, defined as a mean income rank in adulthood above the national median, are almost exclusively low-poverty neighborhoods.

“we first establish that the neighborhoods in which low-income black boys have high rates of upward mobility-which we define as a mean income rank in adulthood above the national median-are almost exclusively low-poverty neighborhoods.”

Reducing racial disparities will require reducing intergenerational gaps for blacks and American Indians.

“This result shows that reducing racial disparities will require reducing intergenerational gaps-that is, disparities in children's outcomes conditional on parental income-for blacks and American Indians.”

Under the assumptions of the model in Section II, if black children's mean ranks were increased by 13 percentiles at all levels of parental income, the unconditional black-white income gap would fall to just 2.7 percentiles within two generations.

“For example, under the assumptions of the model in Section II, if black children's mean ranks were increased by 13 percentiles at all levels of parental income, the unconditional black-white income gap would fall to just 2.7 percentiles within two generations.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Rates of intergenerational mobility remain constant across generations.
• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: The assumptions of the model in Section II hold.

Reducing the current gap without changing α will not affect racial disparities in the long run.

“Reducing the current gap ȳ0 without changing α will not affect racial disparities in the long run.”

If the race-specific levels of absolute mobility α_r do not change, there will be little progress in reducing black-white disparities in the United States.

“the key point is that if the race-specific levels of absolute mobility α r do not change, there will be little progress in reducing black-white disparities in the United States.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Rates of intergenerational mobility remain constant across generations.

Transient programs that do not affect intergenerational mobility, such as temporary cash transfers, are insufficient to reduce disparities because income distributions will eventually revert back to their steady states.

“Transient programs that do not affect intergenerational mobility, such as temporary cash transfers, are insufficient to reduce disparities because income distributions will eventually revert back to their steady states.”

Reducing racial disparities in the long run requires reducing intergenerational gaps.

“Reducing racial disparities in the long run therefore requires reducing intergenerational gaps.”

The predicted steady-state mean income for Hispanics (assuming constant mobility across generations) is 48.7, only 5.7 percentiles below the steady-state for whites.

“As a result, their predicted steady-state mean income (assuming constant mobility across generations) is 48.7,only 5.7 percentiles below the steady-state for whites.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Rates of intergenerational mobility remain constant across generations.

The black-white intergenerational gap in individual incomes is driven almost entirely by men.

“This figure reveals that the black-white intergenerational gap in individual incomes is driven almost entirely by men.”

In the absence of differences in intergenerational mobility by race, racial disparities in income would dissipate relatively rapidly across generations given observed levels of mobility and vanish entirely in steady-state.

“In the absence of differences in intergenerational mobility by race, racial disparities in income would dissipate relatively rapidly across generations given observed levels of mobility and vanish entirely in steady-state.”

The similarity of employment rates for black and white women rules out selection bias in which the decision to work is based purely on potential wage rates.

“The similarity of employment rates for black and white women rules out selection bias in which the decision to work is based purely on potential wage rates.”

These results suggest that the lack of an intergenerational gap in income for females is not entirely due to an income effect.

“These results suggest that the lack of an intergenerational gap in income for females is not entirely due to an income effect.”

If β = 0.35 as observed empirically, convergence to the steady state is relatively rapid.

“As discussed, if β = 0.35 as observed empirically, convergence to the steady state is relatively rapid and hence what matters most even after one or two generations is primarily the intergenerational gap α.”

If black and white children have the same income distributions conditional on parental income, income disparities between the two groups would vanish in the long run regardless of their initial magnitude.

“For example, if black and white children have the same income distributions conditional on parental income-that is, if there is no black-white intergenerational gap-income disparities between the two groups would vanish in the long run regardless of their initial magnitude.”

The large intergenerational gaps for blacks and American Indians relative to whites lead to disparities in earnings for these groups that persist across generations.

“The large intergenerational gaps for blacks and American Indians relative to whites lead to disparities in earnings for these groups that persist across generations.”

In the 2010 Census, 90.3% of individuals are successfully assigned a PIK.

“In the 2010 Census, 90.3% of individuals are successfully assigned a PIK (Wagner and Layne 2014, Table 2).”

• cites Wagner and Layne 2014, Table 2Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Blacks and American Indians are currently close to the steady-state income distributions that would prevail if differences in mobility rates remained constant across generations.

“These values are very similar to the empirically observed gaps for children in our sample, suggesting that blacks and American Indians are currently close to the steady-state income distributions that would prevail if differences in mobility rates remained constant across generations.”

If mobility rates do not change, the steady-state white-black gap in family income ranks is 19 percentiles.

“If mobility rates do not change, our estimates imply a steady-state gap in family income ranks between whites and American Indians of 18 percentiles, and a white-black gap of 19 percentiles.”

The Hispanic-white income gap shrinks across generations.

“Hispanic Americans have rates of intergenerational mobility more similar to whites than blacks, leading the Hispanic-white income gap to shrink across generations.”

Virtually all children in the 1978-1983 birth cohorts are linked to parents.

“As a result, virtually all of the children in the 1978-1983 birth cohorts are linked to parents (Online Appendix Table II).”

• cites Cilke 1998Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Children born into high-income black families have substantially higher rates of downward mobility than whites across generations.

“This remains true even among children born to parents in the top 1%, implying that children born into high-income black families have substantially higher rates of downward mobility than whites across generations, consistent with Bhattacharya and Mazumder (2011).”

• cites Bhattacharya and Mazumder (2011) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Environmental conditions during childhood have causal effects on racial disparities.

“These findings show that environmental conditions during childhood have causal effects on racial disparities.”

The steady-state disparity is directly proportional to the size of the intergenerational gap α.

“The steady-state disparity is directly proportional to the size of the intergenerational gap α, as shown in Figure I, Panel B.”

Groups that have low relative mobility (high β r) could remain stuck at lower income levels for many generations even in the absence of steady-state gaps.

“Estimating β r by race is important because groups that have low relative mobility (high β r ) could remain stuck at lower income levels for many generations even in the absence of steady-state gaps.”

Interpreted using the model in Section II, blacks and whites are in a steady state in which the black-white income gap is due almost entirely to differences in rates of intergenerational mobility rather than transitory or historical factors.

“Interpreted using the model in Section II, this result implies that blacks and whites are in a steady state in which the black-white income gap is due almost entirely to differences in rates of intergenerational mobility rather than transitory or historical factors.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Rates of intergenerational mobility remain constant across generations.

Income distributions measured in the tax records closely match those in the Current Population Survey and the ACS.

“In Online Appendix B and Online Appendix Table IV, we show that income distributions measured in the tax records closely match those in the Current Population Survey and the ACS.”

Asians appear likely to converge to income levels comparable to white Americans in the long run.

“The changing patterns of intergenerational mobility for Asians make it more difficult to predict the trajectory of their incomes, but Asians appear likely to converge to income levels comparable to white Americans in the long run.”

High levels of parental income provide no insulation against racial disparities.

“Hence, high levels of parental income provide no insulation against racial disparities.”

Our findings are inconsistent with the hypothesis that racial disparities may be due to differences in cognitive ability.

“Our findings are also inconsistent with the hypothesis discussed in some prior work (e.g., Rushton and Jensen 2005) that racial disparities may be due to differences in cognitive ability, as there is no biological reason that racial differences in cognitive ability would vary by gender.”

• cites Rushton and Jensen 2005 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

An intergenerational model with constant relative and absolute mobility is inconsistent with the persistence of income disparities by race throughout America's history.

“Hence, an intergenerational model with constant relative and absolute mobility is clearly inconsistent with the persistence of income disparities by race throughout America's history (Myrdal 1944; Duncan 1968; Margo 2016).”

• cites Myrdal 1944Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Duncan 1968Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Margo 2016 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

The error rate in assigning PIKs when one does not have SSNs is typically below 1% for government data sets.

“Using data sets that have both SSNs and other identifiers, Layne, Wagner, and Rothhaas (2014) show that the error rate in assigning PIKs when one does not have SSNs (as in Census surveys) is typically below 1% for government data sets.”

• cites Layne, Wagner, and Rothhaas (2014)Not checked — no full text of the source

The mean rank of individuals of race r converges in the long run to a steady state ȳSS r = α r / (1 - β r).

“Hence, the mean rank of individuals of race r converges in the long run to a steady state in which”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Each family consists of a single individual in each generation.
• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: The idiosyncratic shock ε i,t is independent across generations and has expectation zero.
• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: α r and β r do not vary across generations.

The income gap between Hispanic and white Americans is shrinking across generations.

“Because of these modest intergenerational gaps, the income gap between Hispanic and white Americans is shrinking across generations.”

Differences in childhood environment arise not just from neighborhood-level factors, such as poverty rates or school quality, but also factors that affect racial groups differentially within neighborhoods, such as racial bias and race-specific rates of father presence.

“Importantly, these differences in childhood environment arise not just from neighborhood-level factors, such as poverty rates or school quality, but also factors that affect racial groups differentially within neighborhoods, such as racial bias and race-specific rates of father presence.”

If ȳt - ȳSS is small, most of the current disparity is due to intergenerational gaps rather than transitory factors.

“If ȳt -ȳSS is small, we can infer (under our assumption that rates of intergenerational mobility are stable) that most of the current disparity is due to intergenerational gaps rather than transitory factors.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Intergenerational mobility for each race is constant over time.

If mobility rates do not change, the steady-state gap in family income ranks between whites and American Indians is 18 percentiles.

“If mobility rates do not change, our estimates imply a steady-state gap in family income ranks between whites and American Indians of 18 percentiles, and a white-black gap of 19 percentiles.”

Although there is scope for selection bias, differences in potential wages for nonworking women are unlikely to overturn the conclusion that the intergenerational gap in labor market opportunities is significantly smaller for women than men.

“Although there is certainly scope for selection bias of this form, differences in potential wages for nonworking women are unlikely to overturn the conclusion that the intergenerational gap in labor market opportunities is significantly smaller for women than men, for two reasons.”

Most empirical research on racial disparities has tested competing theories using cross-sectional data on a single generation of individuals.

“Most empirical research on racial disparities has tested competing theories using cross-sectional data on a single generation of individuals (Altonji and Blank 1999).”

• cites Altonji and Blank 1999 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

If β b = 0.75, it would take eight generations for the black-white disparity to fall to 10% of its current level.

“If β b = 0.75, it would take eight generations for the black-white disparity ȳ0 to fall to 10% of its current level.”

If mobility rates remain constant across generations, the income disparity between Hispanic and white Americans would shrink from 22 percentiles for the parents in our sample to 10 percentiles for their children and ultimately to 6 percentiles in steady state.

“If mobility rates were to remain constant across generations, a model analogous to Becker and Tomes (1979) predicts that the income disparity between Hispanic and white Americans would shrink from 22 percentiles for the parents in our sample to 10 percentiles for their children (who are currently in their midthirties) and ultimately to 6 percentiles in steady state.”

• cites Becker and Tomes (1979) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Hispanics' low levels of income at present appear to be primarily due to transitory factors.

“Their low levels of income at present thus appear to be primarily due to transitory factors.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Rates of intergenerational mobility remain constant across generations.

The intergenerational gap would fall by at most 30% if black and white boys grew up in the same neighborhoods.

“Hence, the intergenerational gap would fall by at most 30% if black and white boys grew up in the same neighborhoods.”

American Indians' low income levels are due primarily to their low rates of upward mobility across generations.

“Hence, American Indians' low income levels are also due primarily to their low rates of upward mobility across generations.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Rates of intergenerational mobility remain constant across generations.

An intergenerational perspective suggests that the racial disparities most likely to persist are for blacks and American Indians, who appear to be in a steady state with lower levels of income.

“In sum, an intergenerational perspective suggests that the racial disparities that are most likely to persist are for blacks and American Indians, who appear to be in a steady state with lower levels of income.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Rates of intergenerational mobility remain constant across generations.

The model predicts that in the absence of intergenerational gaps for women, the steady-state gap for both women and men is proportional to the intergenerational gap in individual incomes for men.

“The model predicts that in the absence of intergenerational gaps for women, the steady-state gap for both women and men is proportional to the intergenerational gap in individual incomes for men.”

Black families have much lower levels of wealth than white families, even conditional on income.

“Black families have much lower levels of wealth than white families, even conditional on income (Oliver and Shapiro 1995).”

• cites Oliver and Shapiro 1995Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

The finding that black-white intergenerational gaps vary sharply by gender casts doubt on ability as an explanation for the gaps observed.

“Hence, our finding that black-white intergenerational gaps vary so sharply by gender casts doubt on ability as an explanation for the gaps we observe.”

The converse is true for white men.

“The converse is true for white men.”

The specificity of the correlations rules out broad mechanisms that would affect both genders and races, such as differences in the quality of schools.

“Although we cannot make strong causal claims based on this correlational evidence, the specificity of this set of correlations rules out broad mechanisms that would affect both genders and races (such as differences in the quality of schools).”

The gender difference in racial disparities is most stark in incarceration.

“The gender difference in racial disparities is perhaps most stark in incarceration (Steffensmeier, Ulmer, and Kramer 1998).”

• cites Steffensmeier, Ulmer, and Kramer 1998 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

The black-white intergenerational gap in income for men would be sizable even if individuals incarcerated at the time income is measured were excluded.

“That is, the black-white intergenerational gap would be sizable even if we exclude individuals who are incarcerated at the point at which we measure their income (and hence have near-zero income).”

Neighborhoods have causal effects on children's outcomes in proportion to childhood exposure prior to age 23.

“Under the identification assumption described above, this result implies that neighborhoods have causal effects on children's outcomes in proportion to childhood exposure prior to age 23.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: The potential outcomes of children who move to better versus worse areas do not vary with the age at which they move.

Asian children of U.S. natives have a predicted steady-state income level that is similar to whites.

“For this reason, Asian children of U.S. natives have a predicted steady-state income level that is similar to whites, as shown in Figure II, Panel B.”

Differences in intergenerational mobility are a central driver of racial disparities in the United States.

“Differences in intergenerational mobility are a central driver of racial disparities in the United States.”

Chetty and Hendren (2018a) use the timing-of-move research design to establish that neighborhoods have causal effects on children's outcomes pooling all racial groups.

“Chetty and Hendren (2018a) use this timing-of-move research design to establish that neighborhoods have causal effects on children's outcomes pooling all racial groups; here, we use the same design to identify the causal effects of areas on racial disparities by showing that neighborhoods have race-specific causal effects.”

• cites Chetty and Hendren (2018a)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

The prior literature suggests no ex ante biological reason that racial differences in cognitive ability would vary by gender.

“First, the prior literature suggests no ex ante biological reason that racial differences in cognitive ability would vary by gender (Rushton and Jensen 2005).”

• cites Rushton and Jensen 2005 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Differences in wealth between black and white families are unlikely to explain their starkly different rates of intergenerational mobility.

“We conclude based on this analysis that differences in wealth between black and white families are unlikely to explain their starkly different rates of intergenerational mobility.”

Moving to an area with better outcomes for white boys has essentially no effect on a black boy's outcomes conditional on the outcomes of black boys who grow up in that area.

“Hence, moving to an area with better outcomes for white boys has essentially no effect on a black boy's outcomes conditional on the outcomes of black boys who grow up in that area.”

Black father presence is associated with children's outcomes in a highly race-by-gender specific manner.

“Together, these results show that black father presence is associated with children's outcomes in a highly race-by-gender specific manner.”

Efforts that cut within neighborhoods and schools and improve environments for specific racial subgroups, such as black boys, may be more effective in reducing the black-white gap.

“our results suggest that efforts that cut within neighborhoods and schools and improve environments for specific racial subgroups, such as black boys, may be more effective in reducing the black-white gap.”

Closing the gap in opportunities between black and white children at a given parental income level could eliminate much of the black-white income gap in two generations.

“Closing the gap in opportunities between black and white children at a given parental income level could therefore eliminate much of the black-white income gap in two generations.”

The black-white gap-the largest gap among those we study-is driven entirely by sharp differences in the outcomes of black and white men who grow up in families with comparable incomes.

“The black-white gap-the largest gap among those we study-is driven entirely by sharp differences in the outcomes of black and white men who grow up in families with comparable incomes.”

The family-level factors most commonly discussed in prior work explain very little of the differences in intergenerational mobility between black and white men.

“In summary, the family-level factors most commonly discussed in prior work explain very little of the differences in intergenerational mobility between black and white men.”

Black-white intergenerational gaps are larger in low-poverty neighborhoods than in high-poverty neighborhoods.

“As a result, black-white intergenerational gaps are larger in low-poverty neighborhoods than in high-poverty neighborhoods.”

Extrapolating over 20 years of childhood exposure, children who move at birth to an area where we observe 1 percentile higher incomes for children of their race would pick up about 50% of that effect themselves through a causal effect of place.

“Extrapolating over 20 years of childhood exposure, this estimate implies that children who move at birth to an area where we observe 1 percentile higher incomes for children of their race would pick up about 50% of that effect themselves through a causal effect of place.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: The potential outcomes of children who move to better versus worse areas do not vary with the age at which they move.

Racial disparities can be narrowed through changes in environment.

“demonstrating that racial disparities can be narrowed through changes in environment.”

The fact that test score gaps are not aligned with the earnings gaps across gender casts further doubt on the view that differences in cognitive ability, as measured by test scores, explain black-white gaps in earnings outcomes.

“The fact that these test score gaps are not aligned with the earnings gaps across gender casts further doubt on the view that differences in cognitive ability, as measured by test scores, explain black-white gaps in earnings outcomes.”

The exceptional outcomes observed in certain areas such as Silver Spring are not driven by selection but by the unique causal effects of such environments on black youth.

“This finding suggests that the exceptional outcomes observed in certain areas such as Silver Spring are not driven by selection but by the unique causal effects of such environments on black youth.”

Moving to an area with a larger observed black-white intergenerational gap at an earlier age in childhood results in larger intergenerational gaps in adulthood.

“These results show that moving to an area with a larger observed black-white intergenerational gap at an earlier age in childhood results in larger intergenerational gaps in adulthood.”

Incarceration cannot directly explain the sharp disparities observed in outcomes at younger ages, such as high school dropout rates.

“Incarceration also cannot directly explain the sharp disparities observed in outcomes at younger ages, such as high school dropout rates.”

Many widely discussed proposals may be insufficient to narrow the unconditional black-white income gap in the long run.

“Our findings suggest that many widely discussed proposals may be insufficient to narrow the unconditional black-white income gap in the long run.”

Black girls grow up in lower-income households than white girls in each generation.

“As a result, black girls grow up in lower-income households than white girls in each generation, leading to a persistent racial disparity in individual income for women even in the absence of an intergenerational gap in their individual incomes.”

Childhood environment has significant causal effects on black-white intergenerational gaps.

“The analysis in this section has shown that childhood environment has significant causal effects on black-white intergenerational gaps.”

Incarcerated individuals have low levels of earnings even prior to incarceration.

“Moreover, incarcerated individuals have low levels of earnings even prior to incarceration (Looney and Turner 2017).”

• cites Looney and Turner 2017Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

The processes that generate racial disparities differ substantially by gender.

“These findings reinforce the view that the processes that generate racial disparities differ substantially by gender.”

This finding rejects the hypothesis that racial gaps are driven entirely by differences in immutable traits such as innate ability.

“In establishing the importance of environmental factors, this finding rejects the hypothesis that racial gaps are driven entirely by differences in immutable traits such as innate ability.”

Policies focused on improving the economic outcomes of a single generation-such as cash transfer programs or minimum wage increases-can narrow the gap at a given point in time but are less likely to have persistent effects unless they also affect intergenerational mobility.

“Policies focused on improving the economic outcomes of a single generation-such as cash transfer programs or minimum wage increases-can narrow the gap at a given point in time but are less likely to have persistent effects unless they also affect intergenerational mobility.”

The gap in incomes between blacks and American Indians relative to whites is likely to persist indefinitely without changes in their rates of intergenerational mobility.

“The gap in incomes between blacks and American Indians relative to whites is thus likely to persist indefinitely without changes in their rates of intergenerational mobility.”

Most prior arguments for the ability hypothesis rest on the large gaps observed between black and white children on standardized tests.

“Second, most prior arguments for the ability hypothesis rest on the large gaps observed between black and white children on standardized tests (e.g., Hernstein and Murray 1994).”

• cites Hernstein and Murray 1994Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

The difference in black boys' incomes between the least (bottom 5%) and most (top 5%) racially biased counties exceeds 4 percentiles.

“This coefficient implies that the difference in black boys' incomes between the least (bottom 5%) and most (top 5%) racially biased counties exceeds 4 percentiles.”

Having two parents in the household is associated with a higher level of household income.

“This is because having two parents in the household is associated with a higher level of household income.”

Good neighborhoods tend to have larger intergenerational gaps between blacks and whites.

“As a result, “good” neighborhoods tend to have larger intergenerational gaps between blacks and whites.”

The key to closing income disparities for both black and white women is to close intergenerational gaps in income between black and white men.

“Nevertheless, the key to closing income disparities for both black and white women is to close intergenerational gaps in income between black and white men.”

What matters is the number of black men involved in raising children in a tract, not the number of black men overall.

“Hence, what matters is the number of black men involved in raising children in a tract, not the number of black men overall.”

There is a persistent racial disparity in individual income for women even in the absence of an intergenerational gap in their individual incomes.

“As a result, black girls grow up in lower-income households than white girls in each generation, leading to a persistent racial disparity in individual income for women even in the absence of an intergenerational gap in their individual incomes.”

The exceptional outcomes of Asian children are unique to the children of first-generation immigrants rather than a persistent feature of Asians who are U.S. natives.

“Hence, the exceptional outcomes of Asian children are unique to the children of first-generation immigrants rather than a persistent feature of Asians who are U.S. natives.”

The pattern is not just driven by differences across regions.

“Column (3) shows that results remain similar when we include state fixed effects, showing that the pattern is not just driven by differences across regions.”

Incarceration itself is unlikely to mechanically explain the black-white gaps in income for men.

“Although there are large differences in incarceration rates between black and white men, incarceration itself is unlikely to mechanically explain the black-white gaps in income for men documented in Figure V, Panel A.”