Cited by 1,002Advanced Causal Inference TechniquesBayesian Modeling and Causal InferencePhilosophy and History of Science

Thinking Clearly About Correlations and Causation: Graphical Causal Models for Observational Data

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Rohrer, Julia M.·2018·Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science

Abstract

Correlation does not imply causation; but often, observational data are the only option, even though the research question at hand involves causality. This article discusses causal inference based on observational data, introducing readers to graphical causal models that can provide a powerful tool for thinking more clearly about the interrelations between variables. Topics covered include the rationale behind the statistical control of third variables, common procedures for statistical control, and what can go wrong during their implementation. Certain types of third variables—colliders and mediators—should not be controlled for because that can actually move the estimate of an association away from the value of the causal effect of interest. More subtle variations of such harmful control include using unrepresentative samples, which can undermine the validity of causal conclusions, and statistically controlling for mediators. Drawing valid causal inferences on the basis of observational data is not a mechanistic procedure but rather always depends on assumptions that require domain knowledge and that can be more or less plausible. However, this caveat holds not only for research based on observational data, but for all empirical research endeavors.

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  1. Borsboom, D., van der Sluis, S., Noordhof, A., Wichers, M., Geschwind, N., Aggen, S. H., . . . Cramer, A. O. J. (2012). What kind of causal modelling approach does personality research need? European Journal of Personality , 26 , 392-393.
  2. Mohan, K., Pearl, J., & Tian, J. (2013). Graphical models for inference with missing data. In C. J. C. Burges, L. Bottou, M. Welling, Z. Ghahramani, & K. Q. Weinberger (Eds.), Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26 (NIPS 2013) (pp. 1277-1285). Red Hook, NY: Curran Associates.
  3. Robins, J. M., & Wasserman, L. (1999). On the impossibility of inferring causation from association without background knowledge. In G. F. Cooper & C. Glymour (Eds.), Computation, Causation, & Discovery (pp. 305-321). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

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Authors
Rohrer, J. M.
Affiliations
German Institute for Economic Research (DE)
Corresponding author
Rohrer, Julia M.
Venue
Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science
Published
2018-01-29
Volume
1
Issue
1
Pages
27-42
ISSN
  • 2515-2459 (ISSN-L)
  • 2515-2467
OpenAlex
W2776946813
Cited by
1,002
References
47
Citations by year
2026: 124 · 2025: 145 · 2024: 150 · 2023: 147 · 2022: 122 · 2021: 132 · 2020: 137 · 2019: 31 · 2018: 14
FWCI
65.35
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science (publishedVersion)
  • MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
  • OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History and Philosophy of Science › Philosophy and History of Science
Keywords
causal inference, observational data, causal graphical models, confounding, third variable, particle colliders, mediation, statistical control, causal assumptions, correlation versus causation

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