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Cited by 200Child and Animal Learning DevelopmentBayesian Modeling and Causal InferenceLanguage Development and Disorders

The power of possibility: causal learning, counterfactual reasoning, and pretend play

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Buchsbaum, Daphna, Bridgers, Sophie, Skolnick Weisberg, Deena, Gopnik, Alison·2012·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
DOI 10.1098/rstb.2012.0122PMC PMC3385687
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Abstract

We argue for a theoretical link between the development of an extended period of immaturity in human evolution and the emergence of powerful and wide-ranging causal learning mechanisms, specifically the use of causal models and Bayesian learning. We suggest that exploratory childhood learning, childhood play in particular, and causal cognition are closely connected. We report an empirical study demonstrating one such connection—a link between pretend play and counterfactual causal reasoning. Preschool children given new information about a causal system made very similar inferences both when they considered counterfactuals about the system and when they engaged in pretend play about it. Counterfactual cognition and causally coherent pretence were also significantly correlated even when age, general cognitive development and executive function were controlled for. These findings link a distinctive human form of childhood play and an equally distinctive human form of causal inference. We speculate that, during human evolution, computations that were initially reserved for solving particularly important ecological problems came to be used much more widely and extensively during the long period of protected immaturity.

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  • Buchsbaum et al. found that children were more successful at answering CFR questions in PP conditions and that children's PP and CFR responses were significantly correlated even after controlling for age effects.

    “The researchers found that children were more successful at answering CFR questions in PP conditions and children's PP and CFR responses were significantly correlated even after controlling for age effects.”

    From A plausible role of imagination in pretend play, counterfactual reasoning, and executive functions (2023) · cites this paper as Buchsbaum et al. (2012)

    The Results (sections 7 and 10; page unavailable) report that children's counterfactual and pretence scores were significantly correlated after controlling for age. Section 7 also reports that counterfactual answers were better than chance, but it does not establish that children answered those questions more successfully in pretend-play conditions; the paper reports separate counterfactual and pretence phases. (LLM, conf=0.88)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • These capacities afford the possibility of constructing rich causal world models and are preconditions for coherent conscious experience.

    “These capacities afford the possibility of constructing rich causal world models (Hassabis and Maguire, 2009; Buchsbaum et al., 2012; Pearl and Mackenzie, 2018; MacKay, 2019), and as discussed below, preconditions for coherent conscious experience.”

    From An Integrated World Modeling Theory (IWMT) of Consciousness (2020) · cites this paper as Buchsbaum et al., 2012

  • Children who performed better in the counterfactual task also applied appropriate causal constraints in the context of their pretend play.

    “Results indicated that children who performed better in the counterfactual task also applied appropriate causal constraints in the context of their pretend play.”

    From Pretense and possibility—A theoretical proposal about the effects of pretend play on development: Comment on Lillard et al. (2013). (2013) · cites this paper as Buchsbaum et al., 2012

  • A recent correlational study has established the first empirical evidence that pretend play and counterfactual reasoning may share the same underlying cognitive mechanism.

    “For example, a recent correlational study has established the first empirical evidence that pretend play and counterfactual reasoning may share the same underlying cognitive mechanism (Buchsbaum et al., 2012).”

    From Pretense and possibility—A theoretical proposal about the effects of pretend play on development: Comment on Lillard et al. (2013). (2013) · cites this paper as Buchsbaum et al., 2012

  • Children's performance on counterfactual reasoning questions was significantly correlated with their engagement in causally coherent pretense.

    “Additionally, children's performance on counterfactual reasoning questions was significantly correlated with their engagement in causally coherent pretense.”

    From Pretense and possibility—A theoretical proposal about the effects of pretend play on development: Comment on Lillard et al. (2013). (2013) · cites this paper as Buchsbaum et al., 2012

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2 of the 82 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. [27]Lewis D. K. 1973. Counterfactuals. 1st edn Malden, MA: Basil Blackwell Ltd [Google Scholar]
  2. [37]Bekoff M., Byers J. A. (eds) 1998. Animal play: evolutionary, comparative and ecological perspectives. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press [Google Scholar]

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Authors
Buchsbaum, D., Bridgers, S., Skolnick Weisberg, D., & Gopnik, A.
Affiliations
  • University of California, Berkeley (US)
  • Department of Psychology, Temple University, Weiss Hall, Philadelphia, PA, USA
  • Institute of Human Development, Department of Psychology, University of California at Berkeley, Tolman Hall, Berkeley, CA, USA
ORCID
Venue
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Publisher
The Royal Society
Published
2012-08-05
Volume
367
Issue
1599
Pages
2202-2212
ISSN
  • 0962-8436 (ISSN-L)
  • 1471-2970
DOI
10.1098/rstb.2012.0122
PMC
PMC3385687
OpenAlex
W2139590055
Cited by
200
References
82
Citations by year
2026: 22 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 28 · 2020: 18 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 5 · 2013: 9 · 2012: 7
FWCI
19.32
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ (tdm)
Locations
  • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Developmental and Educational Psychology › Child and Animal Learning Development
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Developmental and Educational Psychology › Language Development and Disorders
Keywords
counterfactual reasoning, pretend play, causal learning, causal models, Bayesian learning, children's play, human evolution, causal cognition, preschool children, evolutionary origins of cognition
MeSH terms
Association Learning, Bayes Theorem, Child, Child, Preschool, Cognition, Biological Evolution, Exploratory Behavior, Female, Humans, Male, Play and Playthings, Task Performance and Analysis, Empirical Research, Executive Function

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