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Potential distributions of pre-Columbian people in Tropical Andean landscapes
Open accessAbstract
Much has yet to be learned of the spatial patterning of pre-Columbian people across the Tropical Andes. Using compiled archaeological data and a suite of environmental variables, we generate an ensemble species distribution model (SDM) that incorporates general additive models, random forest models and Maxent models to reconstruct spatial patterns of pre-Columbian people that inhabited the Tropical Andes east of the continental divide, within the modern countries of Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador. Within this region, here referred to as the eastern Andean flank, elevation, mean annual cloud frequency, distance to rivers and precipitation of the driest quarter are the environmental variables most closely related to human occupancy. Our model indicates that 11.04% of our study area (65 368 km 2 ) was likely occupied by pre-Columbian people. Our model shows that 30 of 351 forest inventory plots, which are used to generate ecological understanding of Andean ecosystems, were likely occupied in the pre-Columbian period. In previously occupied sites, successional trajectories may still be shaping forest dynamics, and those forests may still be recovering from the ecological legacy of pre-Columbian impacts. Our ensemble SDM links palaeo- and neo-ecology and can also be used to guide both future archaeological and ecological studies. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Tropical forests in the deep human past’.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
An ensemble species distribution model using archaeological sites and environmental variables reconstructs likely pre-Columbian occupation across the eastern Andean flank of Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador. It finds occupation concentrated in seasonally dry, less cloud-immersed settings, especially near 2300–3500 m a.s.l., with implications for ecological legacies in modern forest plots.
Key findings
- The ensemble SDM estimated that 11.04% of the study area was likely occupied by pre-Columbian people (table 2 reports 69,174 km²; the abstract states 65,368 km²).
- Elevation and mean annual cloud frequency were the most important predictors, with permutation importance of 35.11% and 16.25%, respectively; distance to river and precipitation of the driest quarter also exceeded 10%. Likelihood of occupation increased with elevation until ca 4000 m a.s.l., with an optimum between 2300 and 3500 m a.s.l., and was lower where mean annual cloud frequency exceeded 90%.
- Of 351 forest inventory plots, 30 (8.5%) were in settings the model considered ideal (2300–3500 m a.s.l., 80–88% cloud frequency); among plots only in that elevation band, 25% were likely occupied. Using the binary threshold, only one plot (PN Río Abiseo from CONDESAN) was highly likely to have been occupied.
- Model performance was robust: all algorithms had AUC scores exceeding 0.75, the ensemble AUC was 0.798, and the ensemble correctly predicted 79.8% of sites; ensemble uncertainty never exceeded 0.23.
Methods
- The study region was the eastern Andean flank between 700 and 6200 m a.s.l. in Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador. The authors compiled 21,199 pre-Columbian archaeological sites from published literature, the Radiocarbon Database for Central Andes and the Sistema de Información Geográfica de Arqueología database, then geographically filtered them at 1 km resolution to 1,965 occurrence points.
- From 27 environmental variables, cross-correlation removed correlated variables (Pearson’s r > 0.75), leaving seven predictors at 1 km resolution: elevation, mean annual cloud frequency, precipitation of the driest quarter, slope, aspect, topographic position index and distance to river.
- An ensemble SDM combined general additive models, random forest and Maxent, using 1,965 pseudo-absence points and five-fold cross-validation. Individual models with AUC > 0.65 were retained and weighted by AUC; probabilities were converted to binary predictions using a threshold that maximized sensitivity and specificity. Likelihoods were then extracted for 351 Andean forest plots.
Limitations
- The paper states that the ensemble SDM does not contain a time parameter, so it cannot address how changing human cultural practices shaped forest dynamics through time, and it identifies favourable sites rather than continuous histories of use.
- The paper states that archaeological databases reflect incomplete sampling, true absence data are lacking, and pseudo-absences were used; it also notes that current mean annual cloud frequency and precipitation data are the best available but Holocene changes in cloud base remain uncertain and within the ±1 km resolution of the environmental data.
- Evident in the text: the abstract reports 65,368 km² for the 11.04% ensemble estimate, while table 2 reports 69,174 km² for the ensemble, indicating an internal inconsistency in the reported area.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
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Claims the paper makes
1 of 47 cited sources checked · 1 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data§ 5. Conclusion
Environmental variables hold significant predictive power over the spatial distribution of pre-Columbian people in the Tropical Andean landscape.
“We built an ensemble SDM showing that environmental variables hold significant predictive power over the spatial distribution of pre-Columbian people in the Tropical Andean landscape.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ 5. Conclusion
People tended to avoid cloud-soaked environments.
“and that people tended to avoid cloud-soaked environments.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ 4. Discussion
Our ensemble SDM performed well.
“Despite not having a time parameter, our ensemble SDM performed well (table 2)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ 4. Discussion
Distance to river is another important variable in the ensemble model.
“Distance to river is another important variable in the ensemble model (figure 2d).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ 4. Discussion
Our model does not predict a uniform probability of legacy effects being evident in the eastern Andean flank.
“Our model does not predict a uniform probability of legacy effects being evident in the eastern Andean flank”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingown data§ 4. Discussion
The analysis shows that large unsampled areas of northern Bolivia have a likelihood of pre-Columbian occupation greater than 75%, particularly in the areas between 2300 and 3500 m a.s.l., where cloud immersion lasts just 30-45% of the year.
“Our analysis shows that large unsampled areas of northern Bolivia (figure 3c) have a likelihood of pre-Columbian occupation greater than 75%, particularly in the areas between 2300 and 3500 m a.s.l., where cloud immersion lasts just 30–45% of the year (figure 3b).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ 3. Results
Likelihoods of pre-Columbian human occupation at the forest plots ranged from 0.007 to 0.58.
“Likelihoods of pre-Columbian human occupation at the forest plots ranged from 0.007 to 0.58.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ 3. Results
Slope, aspect and TPI had permutation importance values less than 9%.
“Slope, aspect and TPI had permutation importance values less than 9%.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ 3. Results
Based on the ensemble SDM binary threshold of 0.546, only one of the 351 forest plots was highly likely to have been occupied by pre-Columbian humans before European arrival.
“Based on the ensemble SDM binary threshold of 0.546, only one of the 351 forest plots was highly likely to have been occupied by pre-Columbian humans before European arrival (table 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ 4. Discussion
The binary output of our ensemble SDM indicates that only one forest plot was likely occupied by pre-Columbian people (PN Río Abiseo from CONDESAN).
“The binary output of our ensemble SDM indicates that only one forest plot was likely occupied by pre-Columbian people (PN Río Abiseo from CONDESAN)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ 3. Results
The likelihood of occupation generally increased as elevation increased until ca 4000 m a.s.l.
“The likelihood of occupation generally increased as elevation increased until ca 4000 m a.s.l. (figure 3b; electronic supplementary material, figure S4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ 4. Discussion
30 of 351 (8.5%) of forest plots are in ideal settings according to our model; that is, they are between 2300 and 3500 m a.s.l. and have a mean annual cloud frequency between 80-88%.
“Our analyses suggest that 30 of 351 (8.5%) of these forest plots are in ideal settings according to our model; that is, they are between 2300 and 3500 m a.s.l. and have a mean annual cloud frequency between 80–88% (figure 4; electronic supplementary material, figure S5).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ 4. Discussion
If only the subset of forest plots that lie between 2300 and 3500 m a.s.l. is considered, the proportion of forest plots with a mean annual cloud frequency between 80 and 88% and are thus likely to have been occupied by pre-Columbian people, increases to 25%.
“If only the subset of forest plots that lie between 2300 and 3500 m a.s.l. is considered, the proportion of forest plots with a mean annual cloud frequency between 80 and 88% and are thus likely to have been occupied by pre-Columbian people, increases to 25% (figures 3 and 4; electronic supplementary material, figure S5).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ 3. Results
The proportion of sites correctly classified based on the five-fold cross-validation ranged from 0.78 to 0.82 for the GAM, RF and Maxent models.
“The proportion of sites correctly classified based on the five-fold cross-validation ranged from 0.78 to 0.82 for the GAM, RF and Maxent models (table 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ 3. Results
The likelihood of human occupation decreased as the distance to major river and precipitation of the driest quarter increased.
“The likelihood of human occupation decreased as the distance to major river and precipitation of the driest quarter increased (figure 3a; electronic supplementary material, figure S4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ 3. Results
Elevation and mean annual cloud frequency were the most significant predictor variables in the ensemble SDM, with a permutation importance of 35.11 and 16.25%, respectively.
“Elevation and mean annual cloud frequency were the most significant predictor variables in the ensemble SDM, with a permutation importance of 35.11 and 16.25%, respectively (figure 2d).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ 3. Results
Distance to river and precipitation of the driest quarter also had permutation importance values exceeding 10%.
“Distance to river and precipitation of the driest quarter also had permutation importance values exceeding 10% (figure 2d).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ 3. Results
The ensemble SDM indicated that 11.04% of the total study region was likely occupied by pre-Columbian people when the threshold that maximized the per cent correctly classified (0.546) was applied.
“The ensemble model indicated that 11.04% of the total study region likely contained pre-Columbian human occupation (figure 2b and table 2) when the threshold that maximized the per cent correctly classified (0.546) was applied to the modelled probabilities (figure 2a).”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · hedged
“Our model indicates that 11.04% of our study area (65 368 km2) was likely occupied by pre-Columbian people.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Abstract · hedged
- Findingown data§ 5. Conclusion
Our potential distribution of pre-Columbian humans extended beyond known archaeological sites.
“Our potential distribution of pre-Columbian humans extended beyond known archaeological sites”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ 3. Results
Areas with a mean annual cloud frequency greater than 90% had a lower likelihood of occupation than areas with a mean annual cloud frequency less than 90%.
“Areas with a mean annual cloud frequency greater than 90% had a lower likelihood of occupation than areas with a mean annual cloud frequency less than 90% (electronic supplementary material, figure S4).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation§ 1. Introduction
Long histories of human occupation have shaped the distributions of species and ecosystems in the high Andes and the Amazonian lowlands.
“Long histories of human occupation have shaped the distributions of species and ecosystems in the high Andes and the Amazonian lowlands [9,10]”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [9] Fjeldsa J. 2007. The relationship between biodiversity and population centres: the high Andes region as an example. Biodivers. Conserv. 16, 2739-2751. ( 10.1007/s10531-007-9204-4) [DOI] [Google Scholar] source
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- Interpretationown data§ 4. Discussion
Areas between 700 and 1400 m a.s.l. on steep slopes with frequent cloud immersion are the least likely to have been altered by human actions.
“Equally, although nowhere can be categorically predicted as ‘not used’, areas between 700 and 1400 m a.s.l. on steep slopes with frequent cloud immersion are the least likely to have been altered by human actions (figures 2a and 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation§ 4. Discussion
Fossil pollen data from Lake Palotoa suggest a downslope movement of lower montane forest taxa at ca 200 calibrated years before present, meaning that the upper limit of the cloud probably moved upslope about 100-200 m.
“For example, fossil pollen data from Lake Palotoa suggest a downslope movement of lower montane forest taxa at ca 200 calibrated years before present (hereafter cal yr BP), meaning that the upper limit of the cloud probably moved upslope about 100–200 m [30].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [30] Schiferl JD, Bush MB, Silman MR, Urrego DH. 2018. Vegetation responses to late Holocene climate changes in an Andean forest. Quat. Res. 89, 60-74. ( 10.1017/qua.2017.64) [DOI] [Google Scholar] source
- Interpretationreasoning§ 4. Discussion
The model suggests that areas just outside the humid montane forest, in sunnier areas of the Andes, were more likely to be occupied than areas within the forests.
“Our model suggests that areas just outside the humid montane forest, in sunnier areas of the Andes, were more likely to be occupied than areas within the forests (figures 2a, 3b).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ 4. Discussion
This one forest plot was likely intensely occupied for a long period of time.
“indicating that this one forest plot was likely intensely occupied for a long period of time”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation§ 4. Discussion
Disturbances that lasted for millennia, only ending as Europeans occupied the landscape, are more likely to shape modern ecologies than the ephemeral use of a location in the distant past.
“Similarly, disturbances that lasted for millennia, only ending as Europeans occupied the landscape, are more likely to shape modern ecologies than the ephemeral use of a location in the distant past [84].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [84] Piperno DR, McMichael C, Bush MB. 2017. Further evidence for localized, short-term anthropogenic forest alterations across pre-Columbian Amazonia. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, E4118-E4119. ( 10.1073/pnas.1705585114) [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
- Interpretationreasoning§ 4. Discussion
Some shift in the base of the low-lying cloud is expected to have occurred throughout the Holocene.
“Some shift in the base of the low-lying cloud is expected to have occurred throughout the Holocene.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data§ 4. Discussion
Particularly dry and seasonal habitat types, especially near the modern upper forest line, are more likely to have legacy effects.
“Rather, particularly dry and seasonal habitat types, especially near the modern upper forest line, are more likely to have legacy effects”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisereasoning§ 4. Discussion
In the Tropical Andes, distance to river serves as a proxy for proximity to a valley because Andean valleys are formed by rivers.
“In the Tropical Andes, distance to river serves as a proxy for proximity to a valley because Andean valleys are formed by rivers.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ 4. Discussion
Areas with lower probability of human occupation are also likely to have less intense, or more ephemeral, pre-Columbian human impacts.
“Likewise, areas with lower probability of human occupation are also likely to have less intense, or more ephemeral, pre-Columbian human impacts.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation§ 4. Discussion
Mean annual cloud frequency and precipitation of the driest quarter were factors that influence the formation of low-lying, characteristic clouds of the Andean humid montane forests.
“Mean annual cloud frequency and precipitation of the driest quarter were factors that influence the formation of low-lying, characteristic clouds of the Andean humid montane forests [65,66].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [65] Halladay K, Malhi Y, New M. 2012. Cloud frequency climatology at the Andes/Amazon transition: 1. Seasonal and diurnal cycles. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 117, D23102. ( 10.1029/2012jd017770) [DOI] [Google Scholar] source
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- Premisecitation§ 4. Discussion
Subsequent archaeological surveys and palaeoecological analyses have shown that the humid montane forests were not largely untouched by humans.
“Humboldt and other early explorers considered much of these humid montane forests to be a vast wilderness, largely untouched by humans [2], but subsequent archaeological surveys and palaeoecological analyses have shown otherwise (e.g. [69,77,78]).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [69] Matthews-Bird F, Valencia BG, Church W, Peterson LC, Bush M. 2017. A 2000-year history of disturbance and recovery at a sacred site in Peru's northeastern cloud forest. Holocene 27, 1707-1719. ( 10.1177/0959683617702232) [DOI] [Google Scholar] source
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- Interpretationown data§ 4. Discussion
Elevation was shown to be the most important predictor of where humans chose to live.
“Elevation was shown to be the most important predictor of where humans chose to live (figure 2d).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation§ 1. Introduction
Many areas show no obvious palaeoecological signs of human occupation.
“Indeed, many areas show no obvious palaeoecological signs of human occupation [30]”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [30] Schiferl JD, Bush MB, Silman MR, Urrego DH. 2018. Vegetation responses to late Holocene climate changes in an Andean forest. Quat. Res. 89, 60-74. ( 10.1017/qua.2017.64) [DOI] [Google Scholar] source
- Interpretationreasoning§ 5. Conclusion
Lower mid-elevation slopes in wet areas away from major valley systems are most likely to have not been impacted by human activity.
“Lower mid-elevation slopes in wet areas away from major valley systems are most likely to have not been impacted by human activity.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ 5. Conclusion
Around 25% of forest plots established at 2300-3500 m a.s.l. are likely still recovering from pre-Columbian human impacts because of their ideal environmental conditions.
“Around 25% of forest plots established at 2300–3500 m a.s.l. are likely still recovering from pre-Columbian human impacts because of their ideal environmental conditions”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationcitation§ 1. Introduction
The legacy of past forest disturbance expressed in successional change may still be influencing forest structure and composition, species abundances and carbon sequestration.
“As such, the legacy of past forest disturbance expressed in successional change may still be influencing forest structure and composition, species abundances and carbon sequestration [23–25].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [23] McMichael CNH. 2020. Ecological legacies of past human activities in Amazonian forests. New Phytol. 229, 2492-2496. ( 10.1111/nph.16888) [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
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- Premisecitation§ 1. Introduction
Conditions in humid montane forests are seemingly hostile for human occupation.
“Conditions in these humid montane forests, such as light limitation [26], frequent cloud immersion and continuous high humidity [26], steep terrain [27] and poor soils [28], are seemingly hostile for human occupation [29].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [29] Brush SB. 1982. The natural and human environment of the central Andes. Mountain Res. Dev. 2, 19-38. ( 10.2307/3672931) [DOI] [Google Scholar] source
- Premisecitation§ 4. Discussion
Human activities, including the use of fire in non-adapted wet forests, likely played a strong role in the extinction of the Pleistocene megafauna in Andean systems.
“Several palaeoecological records show that human activities, including the use of fire in non-adapted wet forests, likely played a strong role in the extinction of the Pleistocene megafauna in Andean systems [79,80].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [79] Rozas-Davila A, Valencia BG, Bush MB. 2016. The functional extinction of Andean megafauna. Ecology 97, 2533-2539. ( 10.1002/ecy.1531) [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
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- Interpretationreasoning§ 5. Conclusion
Their legacies may be impacting our understanding of modern Andean ecology.
“and their legacies may be impacting our understanding of modern Andean ecology.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ 4. Discussion
The optimum likelihood of occupation between 2300 and 3500 m a.s.l. may reflect that people wanted to live near the boundary between humid montane forest and high elevation grasslands.
“The optimum likelihood of occupation between 2300 and 3500 m a.s.l. (figure 3b) may reflect that people wanted to live near the boundary between humid montane forest and high elevation grasslands.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ 5. Conclusion
Many areas of the eastern Andean flank are unlikely to support former occupation.
“Nevertheless, many areas of the eastern Andean flank are unlikely to support former occupation”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ 1. Introduction
The distribution and impact of pre-Columbian people on humid montane forests is probably much larger than currently documented.
“Archaeological databases, however, reflect incomplete sampling, and the distribution and impact of pre-Columbian people on humid montane forests is probably much larger than currently documented.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Archaeological databases reflect incomplete sampling.
- Interpretationown data§ 5. Conclusion
Ecological legacies in Tropical Andean landscapes could be significant in more locations than currently documented.
“demonstrating that ecological legacies in Tropical Andean landscapes could be significant in more locations than currently documented.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ 4. Discussion
Sites identified as having high probabilities of human occupation are also likely to have long, although not necessarily continuous, histories of use.
“Thus, sites that we identify as having high probabilities of human occupation are also likely to have long, although not necessarily continuous, histories of use.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ 1. Introduction
Some modern humid montane forests could have been completely cleared or modified as recently as 500-350 years ago.
“Thus, some modern humid montane forests could have been completely cleared or modified as recently as 500–350 years ago.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationcitation§ 4. Discussion
If megafauna were important to ecosystem structure and function, their extinction probably initiated ecological cascades (legacy effects) that persist until modern times.
“If megafauna were important to ecosystem structure and function, their extinction probably initiated ecological cascades (legacy effects) that persist until modern times [81,82].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [81] Galetti M, et al. 2018. Ecological and evolutionary legacy of megafauna extinctions. Biol. Rev. 93, 845-862. ( 10.1111/brv.12374) [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
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- Interpretationown data§ 4. Discussion
The ensemble SDM (AUC = 0.798) indicated that environmental variables hold statistically significant predictive power over pre-Columbian human occupation of the eastern flank of the Tropical Andes.
“The ensemble SDM (AUC = 0.798) indicated that environmental variables hold (statistically) significant predictive power over pre-Columbian human occupation of the eastern flank of the Tropical Andes (figure 2 and table 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ 4. Discussion
For pre-Columbian people, it would have been advantageous to settle close to a river.
“For pre-Columbian people, it would have been advantageous to settle close to a river.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation§ 4. Discussion
In the Andes, valleys are known to have been important trade routes for fish, salt, feathers, shells and obsidian that connected the lowlands to the highlands.
“In the Andes, valleys are known to have been important trade routes for fish, salt, feathers, shells and obsidian [38,70] that connected the lowlands to the highlands.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [38] von Hagen A. 2002. Chachapoya iconography and society at Laguna de los Cóndores, Peru. In Andean archaeology II: art, landscape, and society (eds Silverman H, Isbell WH), pp. 137-155. New York, NY: Kluwer. [Google Scholar] source
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- Interpretationcitation§ 4. Discussion
This elevation range would provide access to both sets of resources, such as vicuña, alpaca, white-tailed deer and taruca in the highlands.
“This elevation range would provide access to both sets of resources, such as vicuña, alpaca, white-tailed deer and taruca in the highlands [63].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [63] Rolando JL, Turin C, Ramírez DA, Mares V, Monerris J, Quiroz R. 2017. Key ecosystem services and ecological intensification of agriculture in the tropical high-Andean Puna as affected by land-use and climate changes. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 236, 221-233. ( 10.1016/j.agee.2016.12.010) [DOI] [Google Scholar] source
- Premisecitation§ 1. Introduction
The humid montane forests contain some areas of high settlement density, i.e. the mound settlements of the Upano valley, Ecuador.
“but the humid montane forests contain some areas of high settlement density, i.e. the mound settlements of the Upano valley, Ecuador [31,32].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [31] Salazar E. 2008. Pre-Columbian mound complexes in the Upano river valley, lowland Ecuador. In The handbook of South American archaeology (eds Silverman H, Isbell WH), pp. 263-278. New York, NY: Springer. [Google Scholar] source
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- Interpretationcitation§ 4. Discussion
The identification of favourable sites is likely to also predict overlap of occupation from one time to another.
“Our ensemble SDM does not contain a time parameter (see electronic supplementary material for more detail), but the identification of favourable sites is likely to also predict overlap of occupation from one time to another [16].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [16] McMichael CNH, Bush MB. 2019. Spatiotemporal patterns of pre-Columbian people in Amazonia. Quat. Res. 92, 53-69. ( 10.1017/qua.2018.152) [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- Probably not a substantial claim. 15
- It may state two separate claims as one. 18
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
Premisecitation§ 4. DiscussionThe idea of rivers as corridors for easy transportation and communication has been suggested in Amazonia and shown to be significant in predicting anthropogenic soils.
“The idea of rivers as corridors for easy transportation and communication has been suggested in Amazonia [72] and shown to be significant in predicting anthropogenic soils [43].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites [72] Denevan WM. 1996. A bluff model of riverine settlement in prehistoric Amazonia. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 86, 654-681. ( 10.1111/j.1467-8306.1996.tb01771.x) [DOI] [Google Scholar] source
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Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
Findingown data§ 4. DiscussionOther potential areas for study are in southern Peru and central Ecuador, with characteristics of 2300 and 3500 m a.s.l., where cloud immersion is between 80 and 88% of the year, but the sites exhibit strong dry seasons.
“Other potential areas for study are in southern Peru and central Ecuador (figure 3c), with characteristics of 2300 and 3500 m a.s.l., where cloud immersion is between 80 and 88% of the year, but the sites exhibit strong dry seasons (figure 3a,b).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
Findingown data§ 3. ResultsThe ensemble model had an AUC of 0.798, and the five-fold cross-validation indicated that the ensemble model predicted 79.8% of the sites correctly.
“The ensemble model had an AUC of 0.798, and the five-fold cross-validation indicated that the ensemble model predicted 79.8% of the sites correctly (table 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
Findingown data§ 5. ConclusionElevation, mean annual cloud frequency and distance to river are all highly related to pre-Columbian settlements.
“Our model showed that elevation, mean annual cloud frequency and distance to river are all highly related to pre-Columbian settlements”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
Findingown data§ 3. ResultsBecause all three of the individual SDMs were highly correlated with each other, the uncertainty of the ensemble model never exceeded 0.23, with the highest uncertainty of the ensemble model occurring in central Peru.
“Because all three of the individual SDMs were highly correlated with each other (table 2), the uncertainty of the ensemble model never exceeded 0.23, with the highest uncertainty of the ensemble model occurring in central Peru (figure 2c).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
Findingown data§ 3. ResultsAll three algorithms (GAM, RF model, Maxent) used to model the potential distribution of past people in the study region generated robust models with AUC scores exceeding 0.75 and were included in the ensemble SDM.
“All three algorithms (GAM, RF model, Maxent) used to model the potential distribution of past people in our study region generated robust models with AUC scores exceeding 0.75 (table 2) and were included in the ensemble SDM (figure 2a).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationreasoning§ 4. DiscussionOther forest plots likely had less pre-Columbian human influence or were used intermittently.
“while other forest plots likely had less pre-Columbian human influence or were used intermittently.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationreasoning§ 4. DiscussionLocations near the upper limit of the forest, which may have become drier during past decadal droughts, may have been more likely to be occupied than locations far from forest limits, which would likely have been too moist for human occupation even during decadal droughts.
“Locations near the upper limit of the forest, which may have become drier during past decadal droughts, may have been more likely to be occupied than locations far from forest limits, which would likely have been too moist for human occupation even during decadal droughts.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone given§ 4. DiscussionOur ensemble SDM does not contain a time parameter.
“Our ensemble SDM does not contain a time parameter (see electronic supplementary material for more detail)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
Study design and conductnone given§ 4. DiscussionOur ensemble SDM does not address how changes in human cultural practices shaped forest dynamics through time.
“Future studies should focus on determining how changes in human cultural practices shaped forest dynamics through time, which our ensemble SDM does not address.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationown data§ 4. DiscussionThe model shows that mean annual cloud frequency influenced pre-Columbian human distributions, and so understanding changes in mean annual cloud frequency is critical.
“Our model shows that mean annual cloud frequency influenced pre-Columbian human distributions, and so understanding changes in mean annual cloud frequency is critical (figure 2d).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
Premisecitation§ 4. DiscussionThe loss of a seed disperser is probably less likely to exert a profound influence than repeated burning of a non-fire-adapted system.
“The loss of a seed disperser is probably less likely to exert a profound influence than repeated burning of a non-fire-adapted system [83].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [83] Gill JL, Williams JW, Jackson ST, Lininger KB, Robinson GS. 2009. Pleistocene megafaunal collapse, novel plant communities, and enhanced fire regimes in North America. Science 326, 1100-1103. ( 10.1126/science.1179504) [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
Study design and conductnone given§ 4. DiscussionNowhere can be categorically predicted as 'not used'.
“although nowhere can be categorically predicted as ‘not used’”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationown data§ 4. DiscussionPeople likely preferred settings that, although moist, had a pronounced reduction in precipitation during the dry season and were as cloud-free as possible.
“People likely preferred settings that, although moist, had a pronounced reduction in precipitation during the dry season and were as cloud-free as possible (electronic supplementary material, figure S4; figure 3b,c).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationcitation§ 4. DiscussionAreas between 2300 and 3500 m a.s.l. also probably offered benefits of lower disease and parasite probability than low and mid-elevations, higher light availability than mid-elevations and favourable conditions for growing crops such as quinoa, manioc, rice and potato compared with both lower and higher regions of the Tropical Andes.
“Areas between 2300 and 3500 m a.s.l. also probably offered benefits of lower disease and parasite probability than low and mid-elevations, higher light availability than mid-elevations and favourable conditions for growing crops such as quinoa, manioc, rice and potato compared with both lower and higher regions of the Tropical Andes [14,64].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [14] Lombardo U, Iriarte J, Hilbert L, Ruiz-Pérez J, Capriles JM, Veit H. 2020. Early Holocene crop cultivation and landscape modification in Amazonia. Nature 581, 190-193. ( 10.1038/s41586-020-2162-7) [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
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Probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductcitation§ 2. MethodsIndividual SDMs were retained as an input for the ensemble model only if the AUC value exceeded 0.65.
“Individual SDMs were retained as an input for the ensemble model only if the AUC value exceeded 0.65 [16].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [16] McMichael CNH, Bush MB. 2019. Spatiotemporal patterns of pre-Columbian people in Amazonia. Quat. Res. 92, 53-69. ( 10.1017/qua.2018.152) [DOI] [Google Scholar]
It may state two separate claims as one.
Premisecitation§ 4. DiscussionThere have been changes in moisture during the Holocene, which would have impacted the position of the low-lying cloud in Andean humid montane forests.
“There have been changes in moisture, however, during the Holocene, which would have impacted the position of the low-lying cloud in Andean humid montane forests [67,68].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [67] Thompson LG, Mosley-Thompson E, Davis ME, Lin P-N, Henderson KA, Cole-Dai J, Bolsan JF, Liu KG. 1995. Late glacial stage and Holocene tropical ice core records from Huascaran, Peru. Science 269, 46-50. ( 10.1126/science.269.5220.46) [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
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Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
Study design and conductnone given§ 2. MethodsEach individual SDM was run five times, and the AUC value was used to weight the individual algorithms within the ensemble distribution model.
“Each individual SDM was run five times, and the AUC value was used to weight the individual algorithms within the ensemble distribution model.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim.
Premisecitation§ 1. IntroductionSpecies distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict the distributions of species across regions when sampling is incomplete in ecological and biogeographical studies.
“Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict the distributions of species across regions when sampling is incomplete in ecological and biogeographical studies [41,42]”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [41] Elith J, Leathwick JR. 2009. Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 40, 677-697. ( 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159) [DOI] [Google Scholar] source
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It may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationcitation§ 4. DiscussionEven slightly seasonally drier areas would increase the amount and variety of crops, as supported by the domestication of roots and tubers, which occurred in seasonally dry areas of the Andes.
“Even slightly seasonally drier areas would increase the amount and variety of crops, as supported by the domestication of roots and tubers, which occurred in seasonally dry areas of the Andes [64].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [64] Pearsall DM. 2008. Plant domestication and the shift to agriculture in the Andes. In The handbook of South American archaeology (eds Silverman H, Isbell WH), pp. 105-120. New York, NY: Springer New York. [Google Scholar] source
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
Study design and conductnone given§ 2. MethodsThe SDMs were run five times using five-fold cross-validation techniques for each algorithm.
“The SDMs were run five times using five-fold cross-validation techniques for each algorithm.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationcitation§ 4. DiscussionThe rivers themselves are probably less important than their valleys and adjacent ridges, which formed important trade routes.
“The rivers themselves are probably less important than their valleys and adjacent ridges, which formed important trade routes [70,71].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [70] Rademaker K, Reid DA, Bromley GR. 2012. Connecting the dots: least cost analysis, paleogeography, and the search for Paleoindian sites in southern highland Peru. In Least cost analysis of social landscapes: archaeological case studies (eds DA White, SL Surface-Evan), pp. 32-45. Salt Lake City, UT: University of Utah Press. [Google Scholar]
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Probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductcitation§ 2. MethodsThe performance of each model was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) scores.
“We assessed the performance of each model using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) scores [48,58].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [48] Wisz MS, Hijmans R, Li J, Peterson AT, Graham C, Guisan A, Group NPSDW. 2008. Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models. Divers. Distrib. 14, 763-773. ( 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00482.x) [DOI] [Google Scholar] source
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
Interpretationcitation§ 4. DiscussionOccupancy of these valleys may also have benefitted from fertile alluvial soils deposited by the rivers.
“Occupancy of these valleys may also have benefitted from fertile alluvial soils deposited by the rivers [73].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [73] Goodman-Elgar M. 2008. Evaluating soil resilience in long-term cultivation: a study of pre-Columbian terraces from the Paca Valley, Peru. J. Archaeol. Sci. 35, 3072-3086. ( 10.1016/j.jas.2008.06.003) [DOI] [Google Scholar] source
It may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationown data§ 4. DiscussionThe model highlights the spatial heterogeneity of the potential distribution of pre-Columbian people in the eastern flank of the Tropical Andes and the environmental characteristics most responsible for shaping those patterns.
“Our model highlights the spatial heterogeneity of the potential distribution of pre-Columbian people in the eastern flank of the Tropical Andes (figure 2a) and the environmental characteristics most responsible for shaping those patterns (figure 3a,b).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationreasoning§ 4. DiscussionNeither lake shows an absence of cloud, and the shifts in the cloud base are within the margin of error of the environmental data (i.e. ±1 km, or the resolution of the environmental variables).
“Neither lake shows an absence of cloud though, and the shifts in the cloud base are within the margin of error of our environmental data (i.e. ±1 km, or the resolution of our environmental variables).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
Interpretationcitation§ 1. IntroductionDespite harsh environments, the humid montane forests were important pre-Columbian cultural crossroads, and it is therefore likely that areas within the major valleys connecting the lowlands and highlands may have been occupational centres for millennia.
“Despite these harsh environments, the humid montane forests were important pre-Columbian cultural crossroads, and it is therefore likely that areas within the major valleys connecting the lowlands and highlands may have been occupational centres for millennia [21,35].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [21] Lathrap DW. 1970. The upper Amazon. New York, NY: Praeger Publishers. [Google Scholar]
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
Study design and conductcitation§ 2. MethodsProbabilities were converted to binary predictions using a threshold value that maximized sensitivity and specificity.
“Probabilities were converted to binary predictions using a threshold value that maximized sensitivity (true positive rates) and specificity (true negative rates, [59]).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [59] Liu C, Berry PM, Dawson TP, Pearson RG. 2005. Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions. Ecography 28, 385-393. ( 10.1111/j.0906-7590.2005.03957.x) [DOI] [Google Scholar] source
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
Premisecitation§ 4. DiscussionFossil pollen data from Lake Condores suggest an upslope shift in the cloud base at ca 850 cal yr BP.
“Fossil pollen data from Lake Condores suggest an upslope shift in the cloud base at ca 850 cal yr BP [40].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [40] Åkesson CM, Matthews-Bird F, Bitting M, Fennell C-J, Church WB, Peterson LC, Valencia BG, Bush MB. 2020. 2,100 years of human adaptation to climate change in the High Andes. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 4, 66-74. ( 10.1038/s41559-019-1056-2) [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Probably not a substantial claim.
Premisecitation§ 1. IntroductionThe SDM approach has also been used to predict the distributions of past people across landscapes.
“and the approach has also been used to predict the distributions of past people across landscapes [16,43,44].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [16] McMichael CNH, Bush MB. 2019. Spatiotemporal patterns of pre-Columbian people in Amazonia. Quat. Res. 92, 53-69. ( 10.1017/qua.2018.152) [DOI] [Google Scholar]
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The paper relies on this without support.
Archaeological databases reflect incomplete sampling.
“Archaeological databases, however, reflect incomplete sampling, and the distribution and impact of pre-Columbian people on humid montane forests is probably much larger than currently documented.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Sufficient true absence data are lacking because archaeologists rarely report when a location did not yield an archaeological finding.
“Sufficient true absence data, or sampled locations where archaeological sites were not found, are lacking because archaeologists rarely report when a location did not yield an archaeological finding.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Coordinate error associated with the archaeological sites is within 1 km.
“Additionally, any error associated with the coordinates of the archaeological sites should be within 1 km.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Current mean annual cloud frequency and precipitation data are the best modelled and highest-resolution estimates available for detecting the presence of the Andean low-lying cloud.
“Although changes in mean annual cloud frequency are undoubtably important for pre-Columbian human occupation [40,69], current mean annual cloud frequency and precipitation data are the best modelled and highest-resolution estimates we have for detecting the presence of the Andean low-lying cloud.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The intensity, duration and recentness of disturbances influence residual effects on modern forests.
“In terms of the strength of legacy effects on modern forests, the intensity, duration and recentness of disturbances will influence residual effects.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Impacts of past activities on modern forest structures near ancient settlements are long-lasting and may influence current estimates of tropical forest composition.
“These studies show that the impacts of past activities on modern forest structures near the location of ancient settlements are long-lasting, to the extent that they may influence our current estimates of forest composition in tropical forests, such as the Amazon7,8, the eastern flank of the tropical Andes6, and the neotropical forests of Central America9–11.”
From Ecological legacies of pre-columbian settlements evident in palm clusters of neotropical mountain forests (2026) · cites this paper as [6]
Archaeological research documents frequent occupation of montane environments in tropical Andean regions, including Colombia.
“Archaeological research documents frequent occupation of montane environments in tropical Andean regions6, including Colombia12,13.”
From Ecological legacies of pre-columbian settlements evident in palm clusters of neotropical mountain forests (2026) · cites this paper as [6]
There is no uncertainty that montane regions were occupied; archaeological evidence demonstrates sustained pre-Columbian presence.
“There is no uncertainty about whether montane regions were occupied—archaeological evidence clearly demonstrates sustained pre-Columbian presence6,12,13—but rather we need to measure how localised human activities may have shaped forest composition and structure across spatially continuous landscapes.”
From Ecological legacies of pre-columbian settlements evident in palm clusters of neotropical mountain forests (2026) · cites this paper as [6]
Short-term successional dynamics following forest disturbance are relatively well understood for lowland Amazonia, but such processes in neotropical montane environments remain less studied.
“Although short-term successional dynamics following forest disturbance are relatively well understood for lowland Amazonia44—for instance, the dominance of early successional species depending on disturbance scale—such processes in neotropical montane environments remain less studied6,41.”
From Ecological legacies of pre-columbian settlements evident in palm clusters of neotropical mountain forests (2026) · cites this paper as [6]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Abstract reports the wrong area for the ensemble prediction
MinorThe abstract pairs 11.04% with 65 368 km2, but Table 2 assigns 11.04% to an ensemble area of 69 174 km2. The 65 368 km2 figure belongs to the GAM prediction, reported as 10.43%.
“Our model indicates that 11.04% of our study area (65 368 km2) was likely occupied by pre-Columbian people.”
“ensemble 0.798 0.546 69 174 (11.04%) 0.798 n.a. n.a. n.a.”
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Spatial distribution patterns and influencing factors of rural settlements in Lhasa, Tibet
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Metadata
- Authors
- Sales, R. K., McMichael, C. N. H., Flantua, S. G. A., Hagemans, K., Zondervan, J. R., González-Arango, C., Church, W. B., & Bush, M. B.
- Affiliations
- Institute for Global Ecology, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL 32901, USA
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, 1098 XH Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB, Utrecht, The Netherlands
- School of Geography, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Los Andes, Cra. 1 18a 12, Bogota, Colombia
- Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Columbus State University, Columbus, GA 31907, USA
- ORCID
- Venue
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Publisher
- The Royal Society
- Published
- 2022-03-07
- Volume
- 377
- Issue
- 1849
- Pages
- 20200502-20200502
- ISSN
- 0962-8436 (ISSN-L)
- 1471-2970
- PMC
- PMC8899625
- OpenAlex
- W4221024463
- Cited by
- 14
- References
- 83
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 4
- FWCI
- 36.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (publishedVersion)
- UvA-DARE (University of Amsterdam) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1624207)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX14AD31G)
- European Research Council (741413, 853394)
- Neatherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (13248/ALW, 824.14.018/ALW)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History › Amazonian Archaeology and Ethnohistory
- Social Sciences › Archeology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
- Social Sciences › Archeology › Archaeological Research and Protection
- Keywords
- species distribution modeling, tropical Andes, human occupancy, cloud forest, forest inventory plots, ecological legacies, forest succession, paleoecology, environmental variables, altitude, cloud frequency, precipitation of driest quarter, archaeological site
- MeSH terms
- Archaeology, Bolivia, Humans, Peru, Ecosystem
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