Bounding the levels of transmissibility & immune evasion of the Omicron variant in South Africa
Open accessAbstract
A new SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern, Omicron (B.1.1.529), has been identified based on genomic sequencing and epidemiological data in South Africa. Presumptive Omicron cases in South Africa have grown extremely rapidly, despite high prior exposure and moderate vaccination coverage. The available evidence suggests that Omicron spread is at least in part due to evasion of this immune protection, though Omicron may also exhibit higher intrinsic transmissibility. Using detailed laboratory and epidemiological data from South Africa, we estimate the constraints on these two characteristics of the new variant and their relationship. Our estimates and associated uncertainties provide essential information to inform projection and scenario modeling analyses, which are crucial planning tools for governments around the world. One Sentence Summary: We report a region of plausibility for the relative transmissibility and immune escape characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant estimated by integrating laboratory and epidemiological data from South Africa.
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These findings support that the fitness advantage of Omicron BA.1/2 over Delta was not solely due to immune escape but also higher intrinsic transmissibility.
“These findings support that the fitness advantage of Omicron BA.1/2 over Delta was not solely due to immune escape but also higher intrinsic transmissibility 23 .”
From Rapidly shifting immunologic landscape and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in the Omicron era in South Africa (2023) · cites this paper as [23]
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Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of Omicron in South Africa
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Self-citationRapidly shifting immunologic landscape and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in the Omicron era in South Africa
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Pearson, C. A. B., Silal, S. P., Li, M. W. Z., Dushoff, J., Bolker, B. M., Abbott, S., van Schalkwyk, C., Davies, N. G., Barnard, R. C., Edmunds, W. J., Bingham, J., Meyer-Rath, G., Jamieson, L., Glass, A., Wolter, N., Govender, N., Stevens, W. S., Scott, L., Mlisana, K., Moultrie, H., & Pulliam, J. R. C.
- Affiliations
- Stellenbosch University (ZA)
- University of Cape Town (ZA)
- Public Health Agency of Canada (CA)
- McMaster University (CA)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- University of the Witwatersrand (ZA)
- National Health Laboratory Service (ZA)
- Corresponding author
- Pearson, Carl A. B.
- ORCID
- Pearson, Carl A. B.
- Silal, Sheetal P.
- Li, Michael W.Z.
- Dushoff, Jonathan
- Bolker, Benjamin M.
- Abbott, Sam
- van Schalkwyk, Cari
- Davies, Nicholas G.
- Barnard, Rosanna C.
- Edmunds, W. John
- Bingham, Jeremy
- Meyer-Rath, Gesine
- Jamieson, Lise
- Glass, Allison
- Wolter, Nicole
- Govender, Nevashan
- Stevens, Wendy S.
- Scott, Lesley
- Mlisana, Koleka
- Moultrie, Harry
- Pulliam, Juliet R. C.
- Venue
- medRxiv
- Publisher
- openRxiv
- Published
- 2021-12-21
- OpenAlex
- W4200413446
- Cited by
- 44
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2025: 1 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 29 · 2021: 2
- Type
- posted content
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1184344, OPP1171455)
- Wellcome Trust (221003/Z/20/Z, 214236)
- Department of Science and Innovation, South Africa
- National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit
- National Institute for Health and Care Research
- European Commission (HORIZON2020, 101003688, 221003)
- National Research Foundation
- South African Medical Research Council
- Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
- Medical Research Council
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Keywords
- Omicron variant, SARS-CoV-2, transmissibility, immune evasion, parameter estimation, South Africa
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