DOES WHAT POLICE DO AT HOT SPOTS MATTER? THE PHILADELPHIA POLICING TACTICS EXPERIMENT*

“Opportunity theories (Brantingham and Brantingham, 1991 [1981], 1993; Cohen and Felson, 1979; Felson, 1987) emphasize that the characteristics of places structure the routine activities of individuals and produce criminogenic combinations of of-fenders, targets, and guardianship levels at certain…”

“Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) are exponentiated β coefficients and reflect, after multiplying the difference between the IRR and 1 by 100, the expected percentage change in the predicted count of the outcome variable (Rabe-Hesketh and Skrondal, 2012).”

“…the OF tactic is based on the criminological axiom that a small percentage of offenders is responsible for a disproportionate amount of crime (Esbensen et al., 2010; Wolfgang, Figlio, and Sellin, 1972); however, the success of the OF treatment also has several possible practical explanations.”

“Repeated-measures multilevel models are appropriate for experimental study designs (Bryk and Raudenbush, 1987; Raudenbush and Bryk, 2002).”

“When community members perceive that police actions are fair, they are more likely to be more satisfied with and have confidence in police services, follow the law, and help police fight crime (Reisig and Lloyd, 2009; Taylor and Lawton, 2014; Tyler, 1988, 2004).”

“When community members perceive that police actions are fair, they are more likely to be more satisfied with and have confidence in police services, follow the law, and help police fight crime (Reisig and Lloyd, 2009; Taylor and Lawton, 2014; Tyler, 1988, 2004).”

“Using these tools, researchers have demonstrated that crime is concentrated in particular microlevel places, such as street segments (Weisburd et al., 2004), intersections (Taniguchi, Ratcliffe, and Taylor, 2011), and addresses (Pierce, Spaar, and Briggs, 1986; Sherman, Gartin, and Buerger, 1989),…”

“POP represents a shift from the standard model of policing (Weisburd and Eck, 2004) to a proactive approach that emphasizes identifying and solving problems (Goldstein, 1979, 1990).”

“Using these tools, researchers have demonstrated that crime is concentrated in particular microlevel places, such as street segments (Weisburd et al., 2004), intersections (Taniguchi, Ratcliffe, and Taylor, 2011), and addresses (Pierce, Spaar, and Briggs, 1986; Sherman, Gartin, and Buerger, 1989), and that crime level…”

“Of course, incarcerating prolific offenders is likely to have some incapacitative effects on crime rates as well (Blumstein, Cohen, and Nagin, 1978).”

“The first biweekly observation ( t 0 ) served as the referent (Twisk, 2003).”

“Given the precedent established in the hot spots policing evaluation literature (Braga and Bond, 2008; Braga et al., 1999; Weisburd and Green, 1995a, 1995b; Weisburd et al., 2006), the field researchers were instructed to create buffer areas extending roughly two blocks in all directions from each…”

“POP represents a shift from the standard model of policing (Weisburd and Eck, 2004) to a proactive approach that emphasizes identifying and solving problems (Goldstein, 1979, 1990).”

“Opportunity theories (Brantingham and Brantingham, 1991 [1981], 1993; Cohen and Felson, 1979; Felson, 1987) emphasize that the characteristics of places structure the routine activities of individuals and produce criminogenic combinations of of-fenders, targets, and guardianship levels at certain…”

“…precedent established in the hot spots policing evaluation literature (Braga and Bond, 2008; Braga et al., 1999; Weisburd and Green, 1995a, 1995b; Weisburd et al., 2006), the field researchers were instructed to create buffer areas extending roughly two blocks in all directions from each…”

“We could uncover only one study that applied a rigorous qualitative methodology to capture the types of actions undertaken during a POP evaluation (Braga and Bond, 2008).”

“Recent empirical evidence suggests immediate spatial displacement is less of a concern and a diffusion of crime control benefits is more likely (Guerette and Bowers, 2009; Weisburd et al., 2006).”

“The Philadelphia Police Department’s automated system achieves geocoding hit rates in excess of 98 percent, so the data are suitable for spatial data analysis (Ratcliffe, 2004).”

“Durlauf and Nagin (2011) hypothesized that strategically shifting resources from pris-ons to police to conduct hot spots policing can simultaneously produce crime reductions while reducing prison populations.”

“…segments (Weisburd et al., 2004), intersections (Taniguchi, Ratcliffe, and Taylor, 2011), and addresses (Pierce, Spaar, and Briggs, 1986; Sherman, Gartin, and Buerger, 1989), and that crime levels often vary from street to street (Groff, Weisburd, and Yang, 2010; Weis-burd, Groff, Yang, 2012).”

“Focusing resources on small, high-crime places has become widely known as “hot spots policing” (Braga, 2001; Weisburd and Braga, 2003).”

“This development has spurred an evolution in policing from random patrol (Weisburd and Eck, 2004) to focusing police resources on high-crime places (Sherman, 1997; Sher-man and Weisburd, 1995).”

“When community members perceive that police actions are fair, they are more likely to be more satisfied with and have confidence in police services, follow the law, and help police fight crime (Reisig and Lloyd, 2009; Taylor and Lawton, 2014; Tyler, 1988, 2004).”

“Evaluations of multiple tactics using robust experimental designs are scarce (for exceptions, see Braga and Bond, 2008; Taylor, Koper, and Woods, 2011).”

“The WDQ is expressed mathematically as follows: This quotient can be interpreted in terms of the success of the intervention as well as of whether displacement or a diffusion of benefits occurred (Bowers and Johnson, 2003: 286).”

“Cumulative evidence suggests that concentrating police resources in small areas can reduce crime (Braga, Papachristos, and Hureau, 2012; Lum, Koper, and Telep, 2011; Sherman, 1997); however, little is known about which policing tactics are best suited for policing small areas (Telep and Weisburd,…”

“One study used automatic vehicle location data to demonstrate that police presence can be precisely measured without the expense of field observation (Telep, Mitchell, and Weisburd, 2014).”

“Veteran officers may have less interest in dealing with minor drug cases or simply perceive FP as a punishment and choose not to generate activity (Moskos, 2008).”

“Intelligence-led policing is a policing model that uses crime information and criminal intelligence within an operational framework to identify and focus police resources on problem areas and on prolific and serious criminals (Ratcliffe, 2008).”

“Therefore, focusing only on the most serious offenders in crime hot spots in theory reduces the likelihood that hot spots policing will produce “backfire effects” (Weisburd et al., 2011).”

“Despite recent steady reductions, Philadel-phia still has higher violent crime rates than most other large American cities (Zimring, 2011).”

“Most POP evaluations, however, suffer from weak designs (Weisburd and Eck, 2004; Weisburd et al., 2008).”

“In addition, our results indicate that by focusing police efforts on the problem people associated with the problem places, police can achieve significant crime reductions while avoiding negative community perceptions of their actions (Haberman et al., 2014; Ratcliffe et al., 2012).”

“…crime is concentrated in particular microlevel places, such as street segments (Weisburd et al., 2004), intersections (Taniguchi, Ratcliffe, and Taylor, 2011), and addresses (Pierce, Spaar, and Briggs, 1986; Sherman, Gartin, and Buerger, 1989), and that crime levels often vary from street to…”

“Future research combining technology with qualitative research methods has promise for improving our understanding of police activity (see Esbensen et al., 2011, for a multimethod framework for program evaluation).”

“…careful implementation, crime reductions can occur without the massive increases in pedestrian and car stops often found with saturation patrols; these outputs tend to produce many arrests that subsequently flood lo-cal jails, the court system, and the prison system (see Goldkamp and Vilcica, 2008).”

“POP asks police officers to conduct applied science to address problems (Eck, 2006).”

“…consistency of treatment design with treatment implementation) is far more challenging and has received less attention (Sherman and Weisburd, 1995; Sorg et al., 2014) because of the difficulty and expense of collecting data describing the specific activities undertaken while assigned to FP, OF,…”

“…the OF tactic is based on the criminological axiom that a small percentage of offenders is responsible for a disproportionate amount of crime (Esbensen et al., 2010; Wolfgang, Figlio, and Sellin, 1972); however, the success of the OF treatment also has several possible practical explanations.”

“…Foundation, 1981) found no significant differences among treatment and control beats for reported crime or official arrests; subsequent studies also failed to find an effect for crime incidents (Bowers and Hirsch, 1987; Esbensen and Taylor, 1984) or calls for service (Cordner, 1991; Pate, 1989).”

“…Foundation, 1981) found no significant differences among treatment and control beats for reported crime or official arrests; subsequent studies also failed to find an effect for crime incidents (Bowers and Hirsch, 1987; Esbensen and Taylor, 1984) or calls for service (Cordner, 1991; Pate, 1989).”

“Even so, initiatives using POP often have achieved measurable crime reductions (see Weisburd et al., 2010), especially when focused at small places (Clarke and Eck, 2005; Weisburd and Eck, 2004; Weisburd et al., 2008).”

“The 65 eligible studies included (1) Minneapolis Repeat Call Address Policing (RECAP) Program (Sherman et al. 1989a) (2) New York Tactical Narcotics Teams (Sviridoff et al. 1992) (3) St. Louis Problem-Oriented Policing in threeDrugMarket Locations Study (Hope 1994) (4) Minneapolis Hot Spots Patrol Program (Sherman and…”

“finding that the offender-focused approach was the most effective in reducing violent crime (Groff et al., 2015).”