On the practical interpretability of cross-lagged panel models: rethinking a developmental workhorse.
Abstract
Reciprocal feedback processes between experience and development are central to contemporary developmental theory. Autoregressive cross-lagged panel (ARCL) models represent a common analytic approach intended to test such dynamics. The authors demonstrate that-despite the ARCL model's intuitive appeal-it typically (a) fails to align with the theoretical processes that it is intended to test and (b) yields estimates that are difficult to interpret meaningfully. Specifically, using a Monte Carlo simulation and two empirical examples concerning the reciprocal relation between spanking and child aggression, it is shown that the cross-lagged estimates derived from the ARCL model reflect a weighted-and typically uninterpretable-amalgam of between- and within-person associations. The authors highlight one readily implemented respecification that better addresses these multiple levels of inference.
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Simulation studies showed that combining between-person and within-person effects may generate biased estimates.
“Simulation studies showed that combining between-and within-person effects may generate biased estimates [29], as 2 variables may correlate negatively across a population of individuals, but positively within each individual over time [30].”
From Social Media and Mental Health Among Early Adolescents in Sweden: A Longitudinal Study With 2-Year Follow-Up (KUPOL Study). (2021) · cites this paper as [29]
Approximations of causality may be derived from longitudinal designs that address directionality and temporal precedence.
“Conclusions about causality can only be made in the context of experimental studies, 58,91 -93 and approximations of causality may be derived from longitudinal designs that address directionality and temporal precedence. 94”
From Parenting Behavior and Child Language: A Meta-analysis. (2019) · cites this paper as [94]
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- Authors
- Berry, D., & Willoughby, M. T.
- Affiliations
- University of Minnesota (US)
- RTI International (US)
- Corresponding author
- Berry, Daniel
- Venue
- Child Development
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2017-07-01
- Volume
- 88
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1186-1206
- ISSN
- 0009-3920 (ISSN-L)
- 1467-8624
- OpenAlex
- W2551337048
- Cited by
- 737
- References
- 50
- Citations by year
- 2026: 62 · 2025: 84 · 2024: 77 · 2023: 79 · 2022: 83 · 2021: 104 · 2020: 122 · 2019: 63 · 2018: 44 · 2017: 16 · 2016: 2 · 2014: 1
- FWCI
- 5.88
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Child Development (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (1PO1HD39667, 2PO1HD039667)
- National Institute of Drug Abuse
- NIH Office of Minority Health
- NIH Office of the Director
- National Center on Minority Health and Health Disparities
- Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research
- National Institute on Drug Abuse
- National Institutes of Health
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Child and Adolescent Psychosocial and Emotional Development
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Mental Health Research Topics
- Keywords
- reciprocal feedback, model specification, spanking, child aggression, developmental dynamics
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adolescent Behavior, Child, Child Behavior, Child Development, Humans, Models, Psychological, Models, Statistical, Adolescent Development
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