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Evaluating theories of drought‐induced vegetation mortality using a multimodel–experiment framework
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Summary: Model–data comparisons of plant physiological processes provide an understanding of mechanisms underlying vegetation responses to climate. We simulated the physiology of a piñon pine–juniper woodland (Pinus edulis–Juniperus monosperma) that experienced mortality during a 5 yr precipitation‐reduction experiment, allowing a framework with which to examine our knowledge of drought‐induced tree mortality. We used six models designed for scales ranging from individual plants to a global level, all containing state‐of‐the‐art representations of the internal hydraulic and carbohydrate dynamics of woody plants. Despite the large range of model structures, tuning, and parameterization employed, all simulations predicted hydraulic failure and carbon starvation processes co‐occurring in dying trees of both species, with the time spent with severe hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, rather than absolute thresholds per se, being a better predictor of impending mortality. Model and empirical data suggest that limited carbon and water exchanges at stomatal, phloem, and below‐ground interfaces were associated with mortality of both species. The model–data comparison suggests that the introduction of a mechanistic process into physiology‐based models provides equal or improved predictive power over traditional process‐model or empirical thresholds. Both biophysical and empirical modeling approaches are useful in understanding processes, particularly when the models fail, because they reveal mechanisms that are likely to underlie mortality. We suggest that for some ecosystems, integration of mechanistic pathogen models into current vegetation models, and evaluation against observations, could result in a breakthrough capability to simulate vegetation dynamics. Contents Summary 305 I. Background 305 II. Model–experiment approach 306 III. Simulations of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation 310 IV. On thresholds vs duration of stress as drivers of mortality 311 V. Interdependence of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation 314 VI. Next‐generation, traditional, and empirical models 316 VII. A path forward 317 VIII. Conclusions 318 Acknowledgements 318 References 318
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Self-citationProjected Future Changes in Vegetation in Western North America in the Twenty-First Century
Jiang, X., Rauscher, S. A., Ringler, T. D., Lawrence, D. M., Williams, P., Allen, C. D., Steiner, A. L., Cai, D. M., & McDowell, N. G. (2012) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00430.1 · Cited by 95
Self-citationMedvigy, D., & Moorcroft, P. R. (2011) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0253 · Cited by 87
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Self-citationInfluence of history and climate on New Mexico pinon-juniper woodlands.
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Self-citationSPATIAL PATTERNS OF FOREST CHARACTERISTICS IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DERIVED FROM INVENTORIES
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Self-citationBiesinger, Z. F., Powell, J. A., Bentz, B., & Logan, J. A. (2000) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/s0304-3800(00)00240-4 · Cited by 22
Cited by
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Plant resistance to drought depends on timely stomatal closure
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Vegetation demographics in Earth System Models: A review of progress and priorities
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Metadata
- Authors
- McDowell, N. G., Fisher, R. A., Xu, C., Domec, J. C., Hölttä, T., Mackay, D. S., Sperry, J. S., Boutz, A., Dickman, L., Gehres, N., Limousin, J. M., Macalady, A., Martínez‐Vilalta, J., Mencuccini, M., Plaut, J. A., Ogée, J., Pangle, R. E., Rasse, D. P., Ryan, M. G., Sevanto, S., Waring, R. H., Williams, A. P., Yepez, E. A., & Pockman, W. T.
- Venue
- New Phytologist
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2013-09-05
- Volume
- 200
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 304-321
- ISSN
- 0028-646X (ISSN-L)
- 1469-8137
- OpenAlex
- W2140982044
- Cited by
- 420
- References
- 105
- FWCI
- 34.50
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.