Temporal trend in dementia incidence since 2002 and projections for prevalence in England and Wales to 2040: modelling study
Open accessAbstract
Objective To forecast dementia prevalence with a dynamic modelling approach that integrates calendar trends in dementia incidence with those for mortality and cardiovascular disease. Design Modelling study. Setting General adult population of England and Wales. Participants The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) is a representative panel study with six waves of data across 2002-13. Men and women aged 50 or more years, selected randomly, and their cohabiting partners were recruited to the first wave of ELSA (2002-03). 11392 adults participated (response rate 67%). To maintain representativeness, refreshment participants were recruited to the study at subsequent waves. The total analytical sample constituted 17 906 people. Constant objective criteria based on cognitive and functional impairment were used to ascertain dementia cases at each wave. Main outcome measures To estimate calendar trends in dementia incidence, correcting for bias due to loss to follow-up of study participants, a joint model of longitudinal and time-to-event data was fitted to ELSA data. To forecast future dementia prevalence, the probabilistic Markov model IMPACT-BAM (IMPACT-Better Ageing Model) was developed. IMPACT-BAM models transitions of the population aged 35 or more years through states of cardiovascular disease, cognitive and functional impairment, and dementia, to death. It enables prediction of dementia prevalence while accounting for the growing pool of susceptible people as a result of increased life expectancy and the competing effects due to changes in mortality, and incidence of cardiovascular disease. Results In ELSA, dementia incidence was estimated at 14.3 per 1000 person years in men and 17.0/1000 person years in women aged 50 or more in 2010. Dementia incidence declined at a relative rate of 2.7% (95% confidence interval 2.4% to 2.9%) for each year during 2002-13. Using IMPACT-BAM, we estimated there were approximately 767 000 (95% uncertainty interval 735 000 to 797 000) people with dementia in England and Wales in 2016. Despite the decrease in incidence and age specific prevalence, the number of people with dementia is projected to increase to 872 000, 1 092 000, and 1 205 000 in 2020, 2030, and 2040, respectively. A sensitivity analysis without the incidence decline gave a much larger projected growth, of more than 1.9 million people with dementia in 2040. Conclusions Age specific dementia incidence is declining. The number of people with dementia in England and Wales is likely to increase by 57% from 2016 to 2040. This increase is mainly driven by improved life expectancy.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Modelling of the UK change suggests a 57% increase in the number of people with dementia from 2016 to 2040, 70% of that expected if age-specific incidence rates remained steady, such that by 2040 there will be 1.2 million UK people with dementia.
“Modelling of the UK change suggests a 57% increase in the number of people with dementia from 2016 to 2040, 70% of that expected if age-specific incidence rates remained steady,10 such that by 2040 there will be 1·2 million UK people with dementia.”
From Dementia prevention, intervention, and care: 2020 report of the Lancet Commission (2020) · cites this paper as [10]
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Correspondence - Tranexamic acid for traumatic brain injury
(2005) · London School of Economics and Political Science Theses Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736 · Cited by 11,894 · see citing works
The projected effect of risk factor reduction on Alzheimer's disease prevalence
Barnes, D. E., & Yaffe, K. S. (2011) · The Lancet Neurology · doi:10.1016/s1474-4422(11)70072-2 · Cited by 2,668 · see citing works
Alzheimer disease in the United States (2010–2050) estimated using the 2010 census
Hebert, L. E., Weuve, J., Scherr, P. A., & Evans, D. A. (2013) · Neurology · doi:10.1212/wnl.0b013e31828726f5 · Cited by 2,642 · see citing works
Cohort profile: The English longitudinal study of ageing
Steptoe, A., Breeze, E., Banks, J., & Nazroo, J. (2013) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dys168 · Cited by 1,779 · see citing works
Self-citationDefeating Alzheimer's disease and other dementias: a priority for European science and society
Winblad, B., Amouyel, P., Andrieu, S., Ballard, C., Brayne, C., Brodaty, H., Cedazo-Minguez, A., Dubois, B., Edvardsson, D., Feldman, H., et al. (2016) · The Lancet Neurology · doi:10.1016/s1474-4422(16)00062-4 · Cited by 1,676 · see citing works
Matthews, F. E., Arthur, A., Barnes, L. E., Bond, J., Jagger, C., Robinson, L., & Brayne, C. (2013) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(13)61570-6 · Cited by 1,155 · see citing works
Incidence of dementia over three decades in the Framingham heart study
Satizabal, C. L., Beiser, A. S., Chouraki, V., Chêne, G., Dufouil, C., & Seshadri, S. (2016) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa1504327 · Cited by 1,051 · see citing works
Recent global trends in the prevalence and incidence of dementia, and survival with dementia
Prince, M., Ali, G.-C., Guerchet, M., Prina, A. M., Albanese, E., & Wu, Y.-T. (2016) · Alzheimer's Research & Therapy · doi:10.1186/s13195-016-0188-8 · Cited by 876 · see citing works
Timing of onset of cognitive decline: results from Whitehall II prospective cohort study
Singh-Manoux, A., Kivimaki, M., Glymour, M. M., Elbaz, A., Berr, C., Ebmeier, K. P., Ferrie, J. E., & Dugravot, A. (2012) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.d7622 · Cited by 836 · see citing works
Self-citationA note on competing risks in survival data analysis
Satagopan, J. M., Ben‐Porat, L., Berwick, M., Robson, M. E., Kutler, D. I., & Auerbach, A. D. (2004) · British Journal of Cancer · doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6602102 · Cited by 752 · see citing works
A commentary on studies presenting projections of the future prevalence of dementia
Norton, S., Matthews, F. E., & Brayne, C. (2013) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/1471-2458-13-1 · Cited by 634 · see citing works
UK health performance: findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010
Murray, C. J., Richards, M. A., Newton, J. N., Fenton, K. A., Anderson, H. R., Atkinson, C., Bennett, D., Bernabé, E., Blencowe, H., Bourne, R., et al. (2013) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(13)60355-4 · Cited by 553 · see citing works
INFECTIOUS COMPLICATIONS IN PATIENTS WITH ACUTE PROMYELOCITIC LEUKEMIA TREATED WITH THE AIDA REGIMEN
C, G., M, B., La Tagliata, R., Spadea, A., D'Andrea, M., P, M., Lo‐Coco, F., Gentile, G., Micozzi, A., Alimena, G., et al. (2003) · IRIS Research product catalog (Sapienza University of Rome) · doi:10.1038/sj · Cited by 508 · see citing works
Rocca, W. A., Petersen, R. C., Knopman, D. S., Hebert, L. E., Evans, D. A., Hall, K. S., Gao, S., Unverzagt, F. W., Langa, K. M., Larson, E. B., et al. (2011) · Alzheimer's & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2010.11.002 · Cited by 498 · see citing works
Detection and Staging of Dementia in Alzheimer's Disease
Welsh-Bohmer, K. A. (1992) · Archives of Neurology · doi:10.1001/archneur.1992.00530290030008 · Cited by 473 · see citing works
Incidence and Prevalence of Dementia in the Cardiovascular Health Study
Fitzpatrick, A. L., Kuller, L. H., Ives, D. G., Lopez, O. L., Jagust, W., Breitner, J. C. S., Jones, B., Lyketsos, C., & Dulberg, C. (2004) · Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · doi:10.1111/j.1532-5415.2004.52058.x · Cited by 438 · see citing works
A two decade dementia incidence comparison from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies I and II
Matthews, F. E., Stephan, B. C. M., Robinson, L., Jagger, C., Barnes, L. E., Arthur, A., Brayne, C., Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS) Collaboration, Comas-Herrera, A., Wittenberg, R., et al. (2016) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms11398 · Cited by 426 · see citing works
Neuropsychological prediction of dementia and the absence of dementia in healthy elderly persons
Masur, D. M., Sliwinski, M., Lipton, R. B., Blau, A. D., & Crystal, H. A. (1994) · Neurology · doi:10.1212/wnl.44.8.1427 · Cited by 422 · see citing works
Is dementia incidence declining?: Trends in dementia incidence since 1990 in the Rotterdam Study
Schrijvers, E. M. C., Verhaaren, B. F. J., Koudstaal, P. J., Hofman, A., Ikram, M. A., & Breteler, M. M. B. (2012) · Neurology · doi:10.1212/wnl.0b013e3182553be6 · Cited by 408 · see citing works
Research priorities to reduce the global burden of dementia by 2025
Shah, H., Albanese, E., Duggan, C. D., Rudan, I., Langa, K. M., Carrillo, M. C., Chan, K. Y., Joanette, Y., Prince, M. J., Rossor, M. N., et al. (2016) · The Lancet Neurology · doi:10.1016/s1474-4422(16)30235-6 · Cited by 379 · see citing works
Langa, K. M., Larson, E. B., Karlawish, J. H., Cutler, D., Kabeto, M. U., Kim, S. Y. H., & Rosen, A. B. (2008) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2008.01.001 · Cited by 377 · see citing works
Dementia in western Europe: epidemiological evidence and implications for policy making
Wu, Y., Fratiglioni, L., Matthews, F. E., Lobo, A., Breteler, M. M. B., Skoog, I. G., & Brayne, C. (2015) · The Lancet Neurology · doi:10.1016/s1474-4422(15)00092-7 · Cited by 373 · see citing works
The protocols for the 10/66 dementia research group population-based research programme
Prince, M., Ferri, C. P., Acosta, D., Albanese, E., Arizaga, R., Dewey, M., Gavrilova, S. I., Guerra, M., Huang, Y., Jacob, K., et al. (2007) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/1471-2458-7-165 · Cited by 357 · see citing works
Joint Models for Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data: With Applications in R
Rizopoulos, D. (2012) · Chapman & Hall/CRC eBooks · doi:10.1201/b12208 · Cited by 338 · see citing works
Cohort Profile: The Health Survey for England
Mindell, J., Biddulph, J. P., Hirani, V., Stamatakis, E., Craig, R., Nunn, S., & Shelton, N. (2012) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dyr199 · Cited by 312 · see citing works
Twenty-year changes in dementia occurrence suggest decreasing incidence in central Stockholm, Sweden
Qiu, C., Strauss, E. I. V., Bäckman, L., Winblad, B. G., & Fratiglioni, L. (2013) · Neurology · doi:10.1212/wnl.0b013e318292a2f9 · Cited by 307 · see citing works
Why has therapy development for dementia failed in the last two decades?
Gauthier, S., Albert, M., Fox, N., Goedert, M., Kivipelto, M., Mestre‐Ferrandiz, J., & Middleton, L. T. (2016) · Alzheimer's & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2015.12.003 · Cited by 238 · see citing works
Screening for mild cognitive impairment: a systematic review
Lonie, J. A., Tierney, K. M., & Ebmeier, K. P. (2009) · International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/gps.2208 · Cited by 195 · see citing works
Incidence and subtypes of dementia in three elderly populations of central Spain
Bermejo‐Pareja, F., Benito‐León, J., Vega, S., Medrano, M., & Román, G. C. (2007) · Journal of the Neurological Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.jns.2007.07.021 · Cited by 191 · see citing works
Comas‐Herrera, A., Wittenberg, R., Pickard, L., & Knapp, M. R. J. (2007) · International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/gps.1830 · Cited by 174 · see citing works
Dementia risk prediction in the population: are screening models accurate?
Stephan, B. C. M., Kurth, T., Matthews, F. E., Brayne, C., & Dufouil, C. (2010) · Nature Reviews Neurology · doi:10.1038/nrneurol.2010.54 · Cited by 162 · see citing works
Bennett, J. E., Li, G., Foreman, K. J., Best, N., Kontis, V., Pearson, C., Hambly, P., & Ezzati, M. (2015) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(15)60296-3 · Cited by 140 · see citing works
Applying competing risks regression models: an overview
Haller, B., Schmidt, G. P., & Ulm, K. (2012) · Lifetime Data Analysis · doi:10.1007/s10985-012-9230-8 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
Sekita, A., Ninomiya, T., Tanizaki, Y., Doi, Y., Hata, J., Yonemoto, K., Arima, H., Sasaki, K., Iida, M., Iwaki, T., et al. (2010) · Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0447.2010.01587.x · Cited by 138 · see citing works
Prince, M. J., Rodríguez, J. J. L., Noriega, L. H., López, A., Acosta, D. M., Albanese, E., Arizaga, R. L., Copeland, J. R. M., Dewey, M. E., Ferri, C. P., et al. (2008) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/1471-2458-8-219 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
Harrison, J. K., Fearon, P. A., Noel-Storr, A. H., McShane, R. H., Stott, D. J., & Quinn, T. J. (2015) · Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/14651858.cd010772.pub2 · Cited by 131 · see citing works
Lobo, A., Saz, P., Marcos, G., Día, J.-L., De‐la‐Cámara, C., Ventura, T., Montañés, J. Á., Lobo-Escolar, A., Aznar, S., & Workgroup, T. Z. (2007) · Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0447.2007.01006.x · Cited by 129 · see citing works
Trends in dementia incidence: Evolution over a 10‐year period in France
Grasset, L., Brayne, C., Joly, P., Jacqmin‐Gadda, H., Pérès, K., Foubert‐Samier, A., Dartigues, J., & Helmer, C. (2015) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2015.11.001 · Cited by 118 · see citing works
Mild cognitive impairment and cognitive impairment, no dementia: Part A, concept and diagnosis
Chertkow, H. M., Nasreddine, Z. S., Joanette, Y., Drolet, V., Kirk, J., Massoud, F., Belleville, S., & Bergman, H. (2007) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2007.07.013 · Cited by 114 · see citing works
Cross‐national interrater agreement on the clinical diagnostic criteria for dementia
Baldereschi, M., Amato, M. P., Nencini, P., Pracucci, G., Lippi, A., Amaducci, L. A., Gauthier, S. G., Beatty, L., Quiroga, P. M., Klassen, G. A. H., et al. (1994) · Neurology · doi:10.1212/wnl.44.2.239 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
The Blackfriars consensus on brain health and dementia
Lincoln, P., Fenton, K., Alessi, C., Prince, M., Brayne, C., Wortmann, M., Patel, K., Deanfield, J., & Mwatsama, M. (2014) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(14)60758-3 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Doblhammer, G., Fink, A., Zylla, S., & Willekens, F. (2015) · Alzheimer s Research & Therapy · doi:10.1186/s13195-015-0146-x · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Mendoza, W., & Miranda, J. J. (2016) · Cardiology Clinics · doi:10.1016/j.ccl.2016.08.004 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Midlife Risk Factors for Impaired Physical and Cognitive Functioning at Older Ages: A Cohort Study
Brunner, E. J., Welch, C. A., Shipley, M. J., Ahmadi‐Abhari, S., Singh‐Manoux, A., & Mika Kivimaki, B. (2016) · The Journals of Gerontology Series A · doi:10.1093/gerona/glw092 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Self-citationWu, Y., Lee, H., Norton, S., Prina, M. A., Fleming, J., Matthews, F. E., & Brayne, C. (2014) · International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/gps.4148 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Knopman, D. S., Roberts, R. O., Pankratz, V. S., Cha, R. H., Rocca, W. A., Mielke, M. M., Boeve, B. F., Tangalos, E. G., Ivnik, R. J., Geda, Y. E., et al. (2014) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwu103 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Guzman-Castillo, M., Gillespie, D., Allen, K., Bandosz, P., Schmid, V. J., Capewell, S., & O’Flaherty, M. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0099482 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Self-citationHardoon, S. L., Morris, R. W., Whincup, P. H., Shipley, M. J., Britton, A. R., Masset, G., Stringhini, S., Sabia, S., Mika Kivimaki, B., Singh‐Manoux, A., et al. (2011) · European Heart Journal · doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehr142 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Self-citationIncidence of dementia: evidence for an effect modification by gender. The ILSA Study
Noale, M., Limongi, F., Zambon, S., Crepaldi, G., & Maggi, S. (2013) · International Psychogeriatrics · doi:10.1017/s1041610213001300 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Nepal, B., Brown, L., & Ranmuthugala, G. (2010) · Australian Journal on Ageing · doi:10.1111/j.1741-6612.2010.00392.x · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Impact of intervention targeting risk factors on chronic disease burden
Wanneveich, M., Jacqmin‐Gadda, H., Dartigues, J., & Joly, P. (2016) · Statistical Methods in Medical Research · doi:10.1177/0962280216631360 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Lewis, F. I., & Torgerson, P. R. (2016) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2016.03.013 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Binder, N., Schumacher, M. C., & Joly, P. (2015) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwu475 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 56 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Dementia prevention, intervention, and care: 2020 report of the Lancet Commission
Livingston, G., Huntley, J., Sommerlad, A., Ames, D., Ballard, C., Banerjee, S., Brayne, C., Burns, A., Cohen-Mansfield, J., Cooper, C., et al. (2020) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30367-6 · Cited by 10,430 · see citing works
Retracted2023 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures
(2023) · Alzheimer's & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.13016 · Cited by 3,212 · see citing works
2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures
(2024) · Alzheimer's & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.13809 · Cited by 2,536 · see citing works
2019 Alzheimer’s disease facts and figures.
Alzheimer's Association (2019) · Alzheimer's & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2019.01.010 · Cited by 2,461 · see citing works
2020 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures
(2020) · Alzheimer's & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.12068 · Cited by 2,353 · see citing works
2022 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures
Anonymous (2022) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.12638 · Cited by 2,384 · see citing works
2021 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures
Anonymous (2021) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.12328 · Cited by 2,236 · see citing works
2018 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures
Alzheimer's Association (2018) · Alzheimer's & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2018.02.001 · Cited by 1,912 · see citing works
<p>Alzheimer’s Disease – Why We Need Early Diagnosis</p>
Rasmussen, J., & Langerman, H. (2019) · Degenerative Neurological and Neuromuscular Disease · doi:10.2147/dnnd.s228939 · Cited by 501 · see citing works
2025 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures
(2025) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.70235 · Cited by 569 · see citing works
Mukadam, N., Sommerlad, A., Huntley, J., & Livingston, G. (2019) · The Lancet Global Health · doi:10.1016/s2214-109x(19)30074-9 · Cited by 416 · see citing works
Global Prevalence of Young-Onset Dementia: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
Hendriks, S., Peetoom, K., Bakker, C., van der Flier, W. M., Papma, J. M., Koopmans, R., Verhey, F. R. J., de Vugt, M., Köhler, S., Young-Onset Dementia Epidemiology Study Group, et al. (2021) · JAMA Neurology · doi:10.1001/jamaneurol.2021.2161 · Cited by 409 · see citing works
Risk factors for non-motor symptoms in Parkinson's disease.
Marinus, J., Zhu, K., Marras, C., Aarsland, D., & van Hilten, J. V. (2018) · Lancet Neurology · doi:10.1016/s1474-4422(18)30127-3 · Cited by 302 · see citing works
Kingston, A., Comas-Herrera, A., & Jagger, C. (2018) · The Lancet Public Health · doi:10.1016/s2468-2667(18)30118-x · Cited by 287 · see citing works
Cadar, D., Lassale, C., Davies, H., Llewellyn, D. J., Batty, G. D., & Steptoe, A. (2018) · JAMA Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2018.1012 · Cited by 245 · see citing works
Self-citationLongitudinal relationship between hearing aid use and cognitive function in older Americans
Maharani, A., Dawes, P., Nazroo, J., Tampubolon, G., Pendleton, N., & on behalf of the SENSE‐Cog WP1 group (2018) · Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · doi:10.1111/jgs.15363 · Cited by 232 · see citing works
Association of Cumulative Blood Pressure With Cognitive Decline, Dementia, and Mortality
Li, C., Zhu, Y., Ma, Y., Hua, R., Zhong, B., & Xie, W. (2022) · Journal of the American College of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2022.01.045 · Cited by 235 · see citing works
Sommerlad, A., Sabia, S., Singh-Manoux, A., Lewis, G., & Livingston, G. (2019) · PLOS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002862 · Cited by 201 · see citing works
Self-citationLópez, O. L., & Kuller, L. H. (2019) · Handbook of clinical neurology · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-804766-8.00009-1 · Cited by 182 · see citing works
Higher risk of dementia in English older individuals who are overweight or obese
Ma, Y., Ajnakina, O., Steptoe, A., & Cadar, D. (2020) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dyaa099 · Cited by 174 · see citing works
Self-citationSommerlad, A., Perera, G., Singh‐Manoux, A., Lewis, G., Stewart, R. J., & Livingston, G. (2018) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2018.02.012 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
Self-citationMaharani, A., Dawes, P., Nazroo, J. Y., Tampubolon, G., Pendleton, N., Sense-Cog WP1 Group, Bertelsen, G., Cosh, S., Cougnard‐Grégoire, A., Dawes, P., et al. (2019) · The Journals of Gerontology Series B · doi:10.1093/geronb/gbz043 · Cited by 142 · see citing works
Ruangritchankul, S., Chantharit, P., Srisuma, S., & Gray, L. (2021) · Therapeutics and Clinical Risk Management · doi:10.2147/tcrm.s323387 · Cited by 146 · see citing works
Mukadam, N., Wolters, F. J., Walsh, S., Wallace, L., Brayne, C., Matthews, F. E., Sacuiu, S., Skoog, I., Seshadri, S., Beiser, A., et al. (2024) · The Lancet Public Health · doi:10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00120-8 · Cited by 136 · see citing works
Aging without Dementia is Achievable: Current Evidence from Epidemiological Research
Qiu, C., & Fratiglioni, L. (2018) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-171037 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
Long-term Dietary Flavonoid Intake and Subjective Cognitive Decline in US Men and Women
Yeh, T., Yuan, C., Ascherio, A., ROSNER, B. A., Willett, W. C., & Blacker, D. (2021) · Neurology · doi:10.1212/wnl.0000000000012454 · Cited by 118 · see citing works
Secular Trends in Dementia Prevalence and Incidence Worldwide: A Systematic Review
Stephan, B. C. M., Birdi, R., Tang, E. Y. H., Cosco, T. D., Donini, L. M., Licher, S., Ikram, M. A., Siervo, M., & Robinson, L. A. (2018) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-180375 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
Zheng, B., Su, B., Price, G. J., Tzoulaki, I., Ahmadi‐Abhari, S., & Middleton, L. T. (2021) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dc20-2850 · Cited by 105 · see citing works
Self-citationHuque, H., Eramudugolla, R., Chidiac, B., Ee, N., Ehrenfeld, L., Matthews, F. E., Peters, R., & Anstey, K. J. (2023) · Journal of Alzheimer's Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-220724 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Chen, Y., Bandosz, P., Stoye, G., Liu, Y., Wu, Y., Lobanov-Rostovsky, S., French, E., Kivimaki, M., Livingston, G., Liao, J., et al. (2023) · The Lancet Public Health · doi:10.1016/s2468-2667(23)00214-1 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
Self-citationAvan, A., & Hachinski, V. (2022) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.12764 · Cited by 93 · see citing works
Rasmussen, K. L., Tybjærg-Hansen, A., Nordestgaard, B. G., & Frikke-Schmidt, R. (2018) · Canadian Medical Association Journal · doi:10.1503/cmaj.180066 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Liu, Z., Yang, Z., Gu, Y., Liu, H., & Wang, P. (2021) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0254059 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Rasmussen, K. L., Tybjærg-Hansen, A., Nordestgaard, B. G., & Frikke-Schmidt, R. (2019) · European Heart Journal · doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehz402 · Cited by 86 · see citing works
Elovainio, M., Lahti, J., Pirinen, M., Pulkki-Råback, L., Malmberg, A., Lipsanen, J., Virtanen, M., Kivimäki, M., & Hakulinen, C. (2022) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2021-053936 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
Ma'u, E., Cullum, S., Cheung, G., Livingston, G., & Mukadam, N. (2021) · The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific · doi:10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100191 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Global incidence of young‐onset dementia: A systematic review and meta‐analysis
Hendriks, S., Peetoom, K. K. B., Bakker, C., Koopmans, R. T. C. M., van der Flier, W. M., Papma, J. M., Verhey, F. R. J., Young‐Onset Dementia Epidemiology Study Group, de Vugt, M. E., & Köhler, S. (2022) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.12695 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Model-Based Projection of Dementia Prevalence in China and Worldwide: 2020–2050
Li, F., Qin, W., Zhu, M., & Jia, J. (2021) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-210493 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Long-term dietary protein intake and subjective cognitive decline in US men and women
Yeh, T., Yuan, C., Ascherio, A., ROSNER, B. A., Blacker, D., & Willett, W. C. (2021) · American Journal of Clinical Nutrition · doi:10.1093/ajcn/nqab236 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
Sommerlad, A., Perera, G., Mueller, C., Singh‐Manoux, A., Lewis, G., Stewart, R. J., & Livingston, G. (2019) · European Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1007/s10654-019-00481-x · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Self-citationKostev, K., Bohlken, J., & Jacob, L. (2019) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-190581 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Current and future burdens of heat-related dementia hospital admissions in England
Gong, J., Part, C., & Hajat, S. (2021) · Environment International · doi:10.1016/j.envint.2021.107027 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
<i>APOE</i> and dementia – resequencing and genotyping in 105,597 individuals
Rasmussen, K. L., Tybjærg‐Hansen, A., Nordestgaard, B. G., & Frikke‐Schmidt, R. (2020) · Alzheimer's & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.12165 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
European Journal of Epidemiology
(2013) · European Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1007/10654.1573-7284 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Cadar, D., Abell, J. G., Matthews, F. E., Brayne, C., Batty, G. D., Llewellyn, D. J., & Steptoe, A. (2020) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dyaa227 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Self-citationShang, X., Zhu, Z., Zhang, X., Huang, Y., Zhang, X., Liu, J., Wang, W., Tang, S., Yu, H., Ge, Z., et al. (2022) · EClinicalMedicine · doi:10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101335 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Declining incidence of dementia: A national registry‐based study over 20 years
Taudorf, L., Nørgaard, A., Islamoska, S., Jørgensen, K., Laursen, T. M., & Waldemar, G. (2019) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2019.07.006 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Trajectories of allostatic load among older Americans and Britons: longitudinal cohort studies
Tampubolon, G., & Maharani, A. (2018) · BMC Geriatrics · doi:10.1186/s12877-018-0947-4 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Rasmussen, K. L., Nordestgaard, B. G., Frikke‐Schmidt, R., & Nielsen, S. F. (2018) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2018.07.223 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Modifiable cardiovascular risk factors and genetics for targeted prevention of dementia
Rasmussen, I. J., & Frikke‐Schmidt, R. (2023) · European Heart Journal · doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehad293 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Wang, K., Fang, Y., Zheng, R., Zhao, X., Wang, S., Lu, J., Wang, W., Ning, G., Xu, Y., & Bi, Y. (2024) · EClinicalMedicine · doi:10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102831 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Søgaard, M., Skjøth, F., Jensen, M., Kjældgaard, J. N., Lip, G. Y. H., Larsen, T. B., & Nielsen, P. B. (2019) · Journal of the American Heart Association · doi:10.1161/jaha.118.011358 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Merchant, R. A., Goh, J., Chan, Y. H., Lim, J. Y., & Vellas, B. J. (2020) · The journal of nutrition health & aging · doi:10.1007/s12603-020-1525-y · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Esposti, M. D., Ziauddeen, H., Bowes, L., Reeves, A., Chekroud, A. M., Humphreys, D. K., & Ford, T. J. (2021) · Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology · doi:10.1007/s00127-021-02215-5 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Mukadam, N., Lewis, G., Mueller, C., Werbeloff, N., Stewart, R. J., & Livingston, G. (2019) · International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/gps.5046 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Calvin, C. M., Wilkinson, T., Starr, J. M., Sudlow, C. L. M., Hagenaars, S. P., Harris, S. E., Schnier, C., Davies, G., Fawns‐Ritchie, C., Galé, C. R., et al. (2019) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2019.07.014 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Tracing temporal trends in dementia incidence over 25 years in central Stockholm, Sweden
Ding, M., Qiu, C., Rizzuto, D., Grande, G., & Fratiglioni, L. (2020) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.12073 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
The relationship between cognitive reserve and cognition in healthy adults: a systematic review
Panico, F., Sagliano, L., Magliacano, A., Santangelo, G., & Trojano, L. (2022) · Current Psychology · doi:10.1007/s12144-022-03523-y · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Lucca, U., Tettamanti, M., Tiraboschi, P., Logroscino, G., Landi, C., Sacco, L., Garrı̀, M., Ammesso, S., Biotti, A., Gargantini, E., et al. (2019) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2019.09.083 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Pemberton, H., Goodkin, O., Prados, F., Das, R., Vos, S. B., Moggridge, J. C., Coath, W., Gordón, E., Barrett, R., Schmitt, A., et al. (2021) · European Radiology · doi:10.1007/s00330-020-07455-8 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
English Longitudinal Study of Ageing
Zaninotto, P., & Steptoe, A. (2019) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-69892-2_335-1 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Self-citationDing, D., Zhao, Q., Wu, W., Xiao, Z., Liang, X., Luo, J., & Hong, Z. (2020) · Alzheimer's & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.12159 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Wei, B., Dong, Q., Ma, J., & Zhang, A. (2023) · Lipids in Health and Disease · doi:10.1186/s12944-023-01959-0 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Gogna, T., Housden, B. E., & Houldsworth, A. (2024) · Antioxidants · doi:10.3390/antiox13091138 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
2026 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures
(2026) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.71345 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Ricci, G. (2019) · Behavioural Neurology · doi:10.1155/2019/8720904 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Li, C., Ma, Y., Hua, R., Zheng, F., & Xie, W. (2022) · Age and Ageing · doi:10.1093/ageing/afac071 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Organ-specific proteomic aging clocks predict disease and longevity across diverse populations
Wang, Y., Xiao, S., Liu, B., Jiang, R., Liu, Y., Hang, Y., Chen, L., Chen, R., Vitiello, M. V., Bennett, D., et al. (2025) · Nature Aging · doi:10.1038/s43587-025-01016-8 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Longitudinal association of apolipoprotein E and sleep with incident dementia
Palpatzis, E., Bass, N. J., Jones, R., & Mukadam, N. (2021) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.12439 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Yorganci, E., Stewart, R. J., Sampson, E. L., & Sleeman, K. E. (2022) · Age and Ageing · doi:10.1093/ageing/afac098 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Baek, M. S., Kim, H., Han, K., Kwon, H.-S., Na, H. K., Lyoo, C. H., & Cho, H. (2022) · Frontiers in Neurology · doi:10.3389/fneur.2022.883549 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Bonnechère, B., Vooren, M. V., Bier, J., Breucker, S. D., Hove, O. V., Jan, S. V. S., Feipel, V., & Jansen, B. (2018) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-180224 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Medicare spending associated with a dementia diagnosis among older adults
Hoffman, G. J., Maust, D. T., Harris, M., Ha, J., & Davis, M. A. (2022) · Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · doi:10.1111/jgs.17835 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Liu, Y., Wu, Y., Chen, Y., Lobanov‐Rostovsky, S., Liu, Y., Zeng, M., Bandosz, P., Xu, D. R., Wang, X., Liu, Y., et al. (2024) · The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific · doi:10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101158 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Self-citationLewis, G., Werbeloff, N., Hayes, J., Howard, R. J., & Osborn, D. (2018) · The British Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1192/bjp.2018.86 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Short-Term Impact of Income on Cognitive Function: Evidence From a Sample of Mexican Older Adults
Aguila, E., & Casanova, M. (2019) · Journal of Aging and Health · doi:10.1177/0898264319841155 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Bermejo‐Pareja, F., & del Ser, T. (2024) · Journal of Clinical Medicine · doi:10.3390/jcm13020536 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Interplay between Socioeconomic Markers and Polygenic Predisposition on Timing of Dementia Diagnosis
Ajnakina, O., Cadar, D., & Steptoe, A. (2020) · Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · doi:10.1111/jgs.16406 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Self-citationHogervorst, E., Temple, S., & O’Donnell, E. (2022) · Current topics in behavioral neurosciences · doi:10.1007/7854_2022_408 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Therapeutic perspective on vascular cognitive impairment
Toyama, K., Spin, J. M., Mogi, M., & Tsao, P. S. (2019) · Pharmacological Research · doi:10.1016/j.phrs.2019.104266 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Mullin, D. S., Stirland, L., Buchanan, E., Convery, C.-A., Cox, S. R., Deary, I. J., Giuntoli, C., Greer, H., Page, D., Robertson, E., et al. (2023) · BMC Psychiatry · doi:10.1186/s12888-023-04797-7 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Bodagh, N., Yap, R., Kotadia, I., Sim, I., Bhalla, A., Somerville, P., O'Neill, M. D., & Williams, S. E. (2022) · Journal of Interventional Cardiac Electrophysiology · doi:10.1007/s10840-022-01196-y · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Zhang, X., Fu, M., Wang, Y., & Wu, T. S. (2025) · Frontiers in Drug Delivery · doi:10.3389/fddev.2025.1644633 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Contador, I., Buch-Vicente, B., del Ser, T., Velasco, S. L., Villarejo‐Galende, A., Benito‐León, J., & Bermejo‐Pareja, F. (2024) · Journal of Clinical Medicine · doi:10.3390/jcm13144100 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
The increasing burden of mortality from neurological diseases
Pakpoor, J., & Goldacre, M. J. (2017) · Nature Reviews Neurology · doi:10.1038/nrneurol.2017.112 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Prevention Matters: Time for Global Action and Effective Implementation
Kulmala, J., Ngandu, T., & Kivipelto, M. (2018) · Journal of Alzheimer's Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-179919 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Öksüz, N., Ghouri, R., Taşdelen, B., Uludüz, D., & Özge, A. (2024) · Journal of Clinical Medicine · doi:10.3390/jcm13020518 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Yu, R., Leung, J. C. S., Lum, C., Auyeung, T. W., Lee, J. S. W., Lee, R., & Woo, J. (2019) · International Journal of Public Health · doi:10.1007/s00038-019-01240-1 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Bandosz, P., Ahmadi‐Abhari, S., Guzman-Castillo, M., Pearson‐Stuttard, J., Collins, B., Whittaker, H. R., Shipley, M. J., Capewell, S., Brunner, E. J., & O’Flaherty, M. (2019) · Diabetologia · doi:10.1007/s00125-019-05015-4 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Self-citationAssociation of aortic stiffness with cognitive decline: Whitehall II longitudinal cohort study
Araghi, M., Shipley, M. J., Wilkinson, I. B., McEniery, C. M., Valencia‐Hernández, C. A., Mika Kivimaki, B., Sabia, S., Singh‐Manoux, A., & Brunner, E. J. (2019) · European Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1007/s10654-019-00586-3 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Self-citationLi, C., He, D., Liu, Y., Yang, C., & Zhang, L. (2025) · BMC Medicine · doi:10.1186/s12916-025-03949-8 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Gungabissoon, U., Perera, G., Galwey, N. W., & Stewart, R. J. (2020) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2019-035779 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Derby, C. A. (2020) · Current Epidemiology Reports · doi:10.1007/s40471-020-00231-8 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Chen, S., Chen, X., Hou, X., Fang, H., Liu, G. G., & Yan, L. L. (2024) · The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific · doi:10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101106 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Susceptibility‐Weighted Imaging in Neurodegenerative Disorders: A Review
Sotoudeh, H., Sarrami, A. H., Wang, J., Saadatpour, Z., Razaei, A., Gaddamanugu, S., Choudhary, G., Shafaat, O., & Singhal, A. (2021) · Journal of Neuroimaging · doi:10.1111/jon.12841 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Melhuish, R., Grady, M., & Holland, A. (2019) · British Journal of Music Therapy · doi:10.1177/1359457519834302 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Kim, S. Y., Min, C., Oh, D. J., & Choi, H. G. (2019) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2019-030227 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
An Overview of Treating People with Comorbid Dementia: Implications for Cancer Care
McWilliams, L. (2020) · Clinical Oncology · doi:10.1016/j.clon.2020.06.014 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Preez, A. D., Lefèvre‐Arbogast, S., Houghton, V., de Lucia, C., Low, D. Y., Helmer, C., Féart, C., Delcourt, C., Proust‐Lima, C., Pallàs, M., et al. (2021) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.12428 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Long-term intake of total energy and fat in relation to subjective cognitive decline
Yeh, T., Yuan, C., Ascherio, A., ROSNER, B. A., Blacker, D., & Willett, W. C. (2021) · European Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1007/s10654-021-00814-9 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
- Authors
- Ahmadi-Abhari, S., Guzman-Castillo, M., Bandosz, P., Shipley, M. J., Muniz-Terrera, G., Singh-Manoux, A., Kivimäki, M., Steptoe, A., Capewell, S., O’Flaherty, M., & Brunner, E. J.
- Affiliations
- University of Liverpool (GB)
- University College London (GB)
- Venue
- BMJ
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2017-07-05
- Volume
- 358
- Pages
- j2856
- ISSN
- 1756-1833 (ISSN-L)
- 0959-8138
- PMC
- PMC5497174
- OpenAlex
- W2724131311
- Cited by
- 301
- References
- 56
- Citations by year
- 2026: 20 · 2025: 43 · 2024: 43 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 38 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 31 · 2019: 42 · 2018: 28 · 2017: 5 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 23.82
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- BMJ (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Edinburgh Research Explorer (University of Edinburgh) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja (submittedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- British Heart Foundation (RG/16/11/32334, K013351, 32334, PG/11/63/29011, RG/13/2/30098)
- NordForsk (RG/16/11/32334, K013351)
- Medical Research Council (MR/K013351/1, K013351, RG/16/11/32334)
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/J023299/1)
- National Institute on Aging (R01AG017644)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Keywords
- dementia, dementia incidence, dementia prevalence projections, temporal trends, Markov model, cardiovascular disease, cognitive impairment, functional disability, mortality, loss to follow-up, England and Wales, population aging, dementia risk factors, English Longitudinal Study of Ageing
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Dementia, England, Female, Health Surveys, Humans, Life Expectancy, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Population Surveillance, Socioeconomic Factors, Time Factors, Wales, Incidence, Prevalence, Sex Distribution
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
