Autism spectrum disorder: updated prevalence and comparison of two birth cohorts in a nationally representative Australian sample
Open accessAbstract
Objectives: This study aimed to (1) provide an update on the prevalence of parent-reported autism spectrum disorder (ASD) diagnosis and new information about teacher-reported ASD in two nationally representative Australian cohorts at ages 10–11 years, (2) examine differences in cohort demographic and clinical profiles and (3) compare the prevalence of teacher-reported ASD and any changes in categorisation over time across the cohorts. Design: Secondary analyses were undertaken using data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). Participants: Children were recruited at kindergarten age (K cohort; birth year 1999/2000) and birth (B cohort; birth year 2003/2004), with follow-up of every 2 years for six waves. Primary outcome measures: Parent-reported and teacher-reported ASD diagnosis was ascertained at three time points (waves 4–6). Results: At age 10–11 years, the adjusted prevalence of parent-reported ASD diagnosis was 3.9% (95% CI 3.2 to 4.5) and 2.4% (95% CI 1.6 to 2.9) in the B and K cohorts, respectively. Teacher-reported prevalence of ASD was 1.7% (95% CI 1.2 to 2.1) in the B cohort and 0.9% (95% CI 0.56 to 1.14) in the K cohort. Parents reported fewer conduct and peer problems and teachers more pro-social behaviour in B relative to K cohort ASD children. Children reported only by parents in the later-born B cohort had milder behaviour problems than parent-agreed and teacher-agreed cases. Although individual switching to ASD from other categories from 8–9 to 10–11 years was low (K cohort n=5, B cohort n=6), teachers reported more children with ASD in the B than K cohort at 10–11 years and fewer children with emotional/ behavioural problems. Conclusions: The higher prevalence of parent-reported and teacher-reported ASD diagnosis in the later-born cohort may be partially explained by identifying children with milder behavioural problems as ASD and a change in the use of diagnostic categories in schools.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In Australia, ASD prevalence was higher for children born 4 years apart (1999/2000 vs. 2003/2004).
“Similarly in Australia, prevalence was higher for children born 4 years apart (1999/2000 vs. 2003/2004; May et al., 2017; May et al., 2020; Randall et al., 2016).”
From Global prevalence of autism: A systematic review update (2022) · cites this paper as May et al., 2017
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test--Third Edition
Dunn, L. M., & Dunn, L. M. (2012) · PsycTESTS Dataset · doi:10.1037/t15145-000 · Cited by 813 · see citing works
Hansen, S. N., Schendel, D. E., & Parner, E. T. (2015) · JAMA Pediatrics · doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2014.1893 · Cited by 461 · see citing works
Raz, R., Weisskopf, M. G., Davidovitch, M., Pinto, O., & Levine, H. (2015) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s10803-014-2262-z · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Schieve, L. A., Rice, C., Yeargin-Allsopp, M., Boyle, C. A., Kogan, M. D., Drews, C., & Devine, O. (2012) · Maternal and Child Health Journal · doi:10.1007/s10995-012-1004-0 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 18
- [1]Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders (DSM-5). Washington DC: American Psychiatric Publications, 2013. 24413388
- [2]Elsabbagh M, Divan G, Koh YJ, et al Global prevalence of autism and other pervasive developmental disorders. Autism Res 2012; 5: 160– 79. 10.1002/aur.239 22495912 PMC3763210 · DOI · Paper page
- [3]Kim YS, Leventhal BL, Koh YJ, et al Prevalence of autism spectrum disorders in a total population sample. Am J Psychiatry 2011; 168: 904– 12. 10.1176/appi.ajp.2011.10101532 21558103 · DOI · Paper page
- [4]Zablotsky B, Black LI, Maenner MJ, et al Estimated prevalence of autism and other developmental disabilities following questionnaire changes in the 2014 National Health Interview Survey. Natl Health Stat Report 2015; 87: 1– 21. 26632847
- [6]King MD, Fountain C, Dakhlallah D, et al Estimated autism risk and older reproductive age. Am J Public Health 2009; 99: 1673– 9. 10.2105/AJPH.2008.149021 19608957 PMC2724463 · DOI
- [7]Schieve LA, Rice C, Devine O, et al Have secular changes in perinatal risk factors contributed to the recent autism prevalence increase? Development and application of a mathematical assessment model. Ann Epidemiol 2011; 21: 930– 45. 10.1016/j.annepidem.2011.08.009 22000328 PMC4351770 · DOI · Paper page
- [8]Coo H, Ouellette-Kuntz H, Lloyd JE, et al Trends in autism prevalence: diagnostic substitution revisited. J Autism Dev Disord 2008; 38: 1036– 46. 10.1007/s10803-007-0478-x 17975721 · DOI
- [9]Polyak A, Kubina RM, Girirajan S Comorbidity of intellectual disability confounds ascertainment of autism: implications for genetic diagnosis. Am J Med Genet B Neuropsychiatr Genet 2015; 168: 600– 8. 10.1002/ajmg.b.32338 26198689 · DOI
- [10]King M, Bearman P Diagnostic change and the increased prevalence of autism. Int J Epidemiol 2009; 38: 1224– 34. 10.1093/ije/dyp261 19737791 PMC2800781 · DOI · Paper page
- [12]Gray M, Sanson A Growing up in Australia: the longitudinal study of australian children. Family Matters 2005; 72: 4.
- [14]Randall M, Sciberras E, Brignell A, et al Autism spectrum disorder: presentation and prevalence in a nationally representative australian sample. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry 2015: 0004867415595287. 26282446
- [15]Keyes KM, Susser E, Cheslack-Postava K, et al Cohort effects explain the increase in autism diagnosis among children born from 1992 to 2003 in California. Int J Epidemiol 2012; 41: 495– 503. 10.1093/ije/dyr193 22253308 PMC3324454 · DOI · Paper page
- [19]Goodman R The strengths and difficulties questionnaire: a research note. J Child Psychol Psychiatry 1997; 38: 581– 6. 10.1111/j.1469-7610.1997.tb01545.x 9255702 · DOI · Paper page
- [20]Varni JW, Burwinkle TM, Seid M, et al The PedsQL 4.0 as a pediatric population health measure: feasibility, reliability, and validity. Ambul Pediatr 2003; 3: 329– 41. 10.1367/1539-4409(2003)003<0329:TPAAPP>2.0.CO;2 14616041 · DOI
- [22]Wechsler D Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children–fourth edition (WISC-IV). San Antonio, TX: The Psychological Corporation, 2003.
- [25]Barbaro J, Ridgway L, Dissanayake C Developmental surveillance of infants and toddlers by maternal and child health nurses in an Australian community-based setting: promoting the early identification of autism spectrum disorders. J Pediatr Nurs 2011; 26: 334– 47. 10.1016/j.pedn.2010.04.007 21726784 · DOI
- [26]Daniels AM, Mandell DS Explaining differences in age at autism spectrum disorder diagnosis: a critical review. Autism 2014; 18: 583– 97. 10.1177/1362361313480277 23787411 PMC4775077 · DOI · Paper page
- [28]Leigh JP, Du J Brief report: forecasting the Economic burden of autism in 2015 and 2025 in the United States. J Autism Dev Disord 2015; 45: 4135– 9. 10.1007/s10803-015-2521-7 26183723 · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Global prevalence of autism: A systematic review update
Zeidan, J., Fombonne, E., Scorah, J., Ibrahim, A., Durkin, M. S., Saxena, S., Yusuf, A., Shih, A., & Elsabbagh, M. (2022) · Autism Research · doi:10.1002/aur.2696 · Cited by 3,117 · see citing works
The prevalence of parent-reported autism spectrum disorder among US children
Kogan, M. D., Vladutiu, C. J., Schieve, L. A., Ghandour, R. M., Blumberg, S. J., Zablotsky, B., Perrin, J. M., Shattuck, P., Kuhlthau, K. A., Harwood, R. L., et al. (2018) · Pediatrics · doi:10.1542/peds.2017-4161 · Cited by 354 · see citing works
Sex differences in neurodevelopmental disorders
May, T., Adesina, I., McGillivray, J., & Rinehart, N. J. (2019) · Current Opinion in Neurology · doi:10.1097/wco.0000000000000714 · Cited by 235 · see citing works
Self-citationMyers, S. M., Voigt, R. G., Colligan, R. C., Weaver, A. L., Storlie, C. B., Stoeckel, R. E., Port, J. D., & Katusic, S. K. (2019) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s10803-018-3834-0 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
May, T., & Williams, K. (2018) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s10803-018-3609-7 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Self-citationJung, B., Ahn, K., Justice, C., Norman, L., Price, J., Sudre, G., & Shaw, P. (2023) · Molecular Psychiatry · doi:10.1038/s41380-022-01906-y · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Gidziela, A., Ahmadzadeh, Y. I., Michelini, G., Allegrini, A. G., Agnew-Blais, J., Lau, L. Y., Duret, M., Procopio, F., Daly, E., Ronald, A., et al. (2022) · doi:10.1101/2022.02.17.22271089 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
- Authors
- May, T., Sciberras, E., Brignell, A., & Williams, K.
- Affiliations
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- Deakin University (AU)
- Royal Children's Hospital (AU)
- Corresponding author
- May, Tamara
- Venue
- BMJ Open
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2017-05
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- e015549
- ISSN
- 2044-6055 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC5623420
- OpenAlex
- W2612814028
- Cited by
- 97
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 14 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 16
- FWCI
- 5.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by-nc
- Locations
- BMJ Open (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- William Collie Trust
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Autism Spectrum Disorder Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Child Nutrition and Feeding Issues
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Child and Adolescent Psychosocial and Emotional Development
- Keywords
- autism spectrum disorder, autism prevalence, birth cohort comparison, Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, conduct problems, peer problems, prosocial behavior, school-based diagnosis
- MeSH terms
- Autism Spectrum Disorder, Australia, Child, Cognition, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Parents, Quality of Life, Schools, Severity of Illness Index, Social Behavior, Prevalence, Linear Models
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
