What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years?

“Building off this theoretical work, empirical research has generally found that party-based regimes are more stable than other autocracies (Geddes 1999; Smith 2005; Slater 2006; Hadenius and Teorell 2007; Brownlee 2007, 2009; Magaloni 2008).1 Because of their regime-preserving functions, autocratic…”

“(Geddes, 1999, 131); none took place in a country that had beenunder a single-party regime that subdued the state and the military as thoroughly as in the Soviet Union.”

“…lends further support to the comparative finding that single party states appear to have the most resilient form of authoritarianism (Brownlee 2007; Geddes 1999) and suggests the intriguing possibility that some of the historically conservative monarchies of the region may ultimately prove to be…”

“…even non-co-opted elites are discouraged from coup initiation because it becomes increasingly costly: even successful coups can be costly for those who have opposed intervention, as they may face “the same costs as unsuccessful conspirators: demotion, discharge, prison, death” (Geddes 1999, 127).”

“…dictatorships, are characterized by the concentration of power in the hands of one individual (Bratton and van de Walle, 1997; Weeks, 2014), which entails that the ruler has managed to marginalize state institutions and consolidate full control over policy and appointments (Geddes, 1999, 2003).”

“Strong evidence supports the claims that democracy is more likely in economically developed countries and that regime changes of all kinds are more likely during economic downturns.(7) Zakaria argues that the best answer to what makes democracy endure is wealth.”

“…a wider group of individuals in the regime’s membership as well as by institutionalizing mechanisms for attracting and retaining new members (Geddes, 1999, 121 134).10 These regimes also develop institutional mechanisms to co-opt the opposition either through the distribution of economic…”

“The arguably most influential subdivision of dictatorial regimes in recent comparative politics is that constructed by Geddes (1999).”

“…political elites choose their leaders, they tend to entrust those who are “known for correctness, adherence to rules, fairness, lack of personal ambition, and low charisma” (Geddes, 1999, p. 123), as these characteristics suggest someone who is unlikely to grab power at the expense of her peers.”

“Whenever contemplating increased involvement in politics, military elites estimate whether they would receive sufficient support from their colleagues or society at large (Geddes, 1999; Singh, 2014; Thyne and Powell, 2016).”

“The key focus has been on institutions and the incentives they create (Geddes 1999).”

“Scholars of dictatorships offer several categorizations of autocratic regimes (Huntington, 1968; Wintrobe, 1990; Huntington, 1991; Chehabi and Linz, 1998; Geddes, 1999; Hadenius and Teorell, 2007; Cheibub et al., 2010).”

“While Geddes (1999) argued that military regimes were less durable, she did not explore whether these regimes were more likely to democratize at that time.”

“This is based on work showing that coups destabilize an already tumultuous situation (Geddes, 1999; Onwumechili, 1998).”

“Political scientists have studied the determinants of the years in office variable in order to explain why some rulers remained in power very long, whereas others were kicked out quickly (Acemoglu, 2006; Baker et al., 2010; Geddes, 1999; Weingast and Wittman, 2008).”

“Nondemocratic regimes have incentives to develop these types of representative mechanisms because they allow regimes to survive longer than regimes that do not develop these institutions (Geddes 1999).”

“Although recent scholarship has suggested that certain non-democratic governments are more stable than others (Geddes 1999), continuing an older debate on the supposed greater durability of left-wing as opposed to right-wing dictatorships, and though research on varieties of authoritarianism…”

“In looking at these questions, it is argued that authoritarianism in Southeast Asia is not only sustained by strong state institutions (see Geddes, 1999; Levitsky & Way, 2012) but also by public opinion, which reflects different understandings and expectations of democracy.”

“In a path-setting study of non-democratic regimes, Geddes (1999) argued that significant differences among dictatorships can be explained by the strength of autonomous political institutions and by different incentive structures in personal, party, and military dictatorships.”

“…also point to the size and character of the ruling coalition as an important determinant of how core elite supporters perceive their chances of retaining political influence after a regime transition and, thus, of how reluctant they will be to engage in costly repressive activities (Geddes, 1999).”

“…to be motivated to carry out anti-corruption reforms because they often rely on distributing spoils and patronage to stay in power, benefit personally from corruption, and can use coercive means to suppress public criticism and unrest (Geddes 1999; Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003; Magaloni 2008).”

“On these coordination dynamics, see Boix and Svolik (2013), Casper and Tyson (2014), Geddes (1999), Little (2015), Singh (2014). loyal to the incumbent, an officer’s personal grievances or political opinions matter less than what he thinks his colleagues will do.”

“3 Geddes 1999, 121.”

“Personalistic and sultanistic regimes are said to be particularly vulnerable to seeing incumbents removed by mass uprisings (Escriba-Folch, 2013; Geddes, 1999; Goemans, 2008; Goldstone, 1986; Ulfelder, 2005; ).”

“Scholars have focused on the difference between developed democracies, between weak and failed states, and between different types of autocracies (Geddes 1999), but few have looked across these categories.”

“The democratization literature, in turn, has favoured either elite accounts (O’Donnell and Schmitter, 1986; Linz and Stepan, 1996; Geddes, 1999) or structural factors (Lipset, 1959) for democratic transitions and democracy consolidation, focusing mainly on the domestic conditions for successful democratization.”

“…a person rather than in the organization and its specified rules, party institutionalization is low.2 One example is ‘personalized rule’ (for example, Geddes 1999) where leaders can sometimes exercise power in a near-monopolistic manner despite formally belonging to a party (or absent any…”

“Further, coups entail coordination in planning and implementation to succeed (Geddes, 1999; Singh, 2014).”

“Furthermore, educated people tend to support liberal and democratic values and put greater pressure on political leaders to become accountable toward the public (for example, Geddes, 1999; Lipset, 1959; Przeworski et al., 2000).”

“Some professionalised military regimes, which tend to be legalistic and rule bound, ‘may even negotiate the details of succession and the institutionalized formulas for rotation in power before staging a coup’, as happened in Argentina in the 1970s (Lindstaedt, in press; see also Geddes, 1999).”

“My first point refers to the three existing data sets on types of autocratic regimes proposed by Geddes (1999) (expanded and updated by Geddes et al. 2012a, 2012b), Hadenius and Teorell (2007) (modified and updated by Hadenius et al. 2012) and Cheibub et al. (2010).”

“correlations between regime type and the conversion of breakdown into democracy (Geddes, 1999; Geddes et al., 2014; Lee, 2015; Ulfelder, 2005).”

“Prior work on personalism mostly relied on the Geddes (1999) and Geddes, Wright, and Frantz (2014) regime typology, which comparativists have used extensively to explore how different forms of dictatorship affect a wide range of political and economic outcomes.”

“and we add up the respective sides of equations (18) and (19) and multiply by (1−λδ) to obtain”

“On the other hand, prior studies suggest that democracy can take time to produce socio-economic outcomes (Gao et al., 2017; Geddes, 1999; Rodrik & Wacziarg, 2005).”

“Many would expect so because a large number of authoritarian regimes with a good record of economic development have experienced some steady increase of their citizens’ political participation, ending in democratization (Geddes, 1999, 2007).”

“While earlier studies of authoritarian durability focused mostly on institutions of cooptation such as parties and legislatures (Geddes 1999; Brownlee 2007; Gandhi 2008), more recent scholarship has concentrated on the crucial role of coercion in ensuring regime survival.46 These studies have…”

“Yet, ruling elites are self-interested actors and politically ambitious: they want to advance their careers and expand their power in exchange for providing political services to the ruler (Aldrich & Bianco, 1992; Geddes, 1999; Desposato, 2006).”

“After reviewing the extensive literature on this topic, Barbara Geddes concluded, “we can be reasonably certain that a positive relationship between development and democracy exists, though we do not know why” (Geddes, 1999: 119).”