Cited by 2,025Political Conflict and GovernancePolitical Theory and DemocracyElectoral Systems and Political Participation

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What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years?

Geddes, Barbara·1999·Annual Review of Political Science

DOI 10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.115

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Abstract

This essay synthesizes the results of the large number of studies of late–20th-century democratization published during the last 20 years. Strong evidence supports the claims that democracy is more likely in more developed countries and that regime transitions of all kinds are more likely during economic downturns. Very few of the other arguments advanced in the transitions literature, however, appear to be generally true. This study proposes a theoretical model, rooted in characteristics of different types of authoritarian regimes, to explain many of the differences in democratization experience across cases in different regions. Evidence drawn from a data set that includes 163 authoritarian regimes offers preliminary support for the model proposed.

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“…have pursued wide-ranging projects to develop appropriate measurements of democratic, authoritarian, and hybrid regimes (Alvarez et al., 1996; Boix et al., 2013; Coppedge, 2002; Coppedge et al., 2008; Diamond, 2002; Geddes, 1999; Hyde and Marinov, 2012; Munck and Verkuilen, 2002; Przeworski, 2013).”
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Ganslmeier, M., & Vlandas, T. (2025) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2414926122 · Cited by 3
Political growth collapses
Rodríguez, F. R., & Imam, P. A. (2025) · Public Choice · doi:10.1007/s11127-025-01290-5 · Cited by 5
“A central finding in this literature is the importance of the stakes of power in ensuring incentives for incumbents to hand over power after losing elections (Przeworski 1991; Geddes 1999; Lizzeri and Persico 2004; North et al. 2000; Przeworski et al. 1996; Svolik 2019).”
The politics of prosecution service reform in new presidential democracies: The South Korea and Russia cases in comparative perspective
Lee, S. (2016) · Journal of Eurasian Studies · doi:10.1016/j.euras.2015.09.001 · Cited by 3
The Street and the Ballot Box
Ong, L. H. (2022) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009158268 · Cited by 3
Bureaucratic beliefs and law enforcement
Hong, F., & Zhang, D. (2022) · Public Choice · doi:10.1007/s11127-022-01003-2 · Cited by 3
Revolution, Change, and Democratic Transition in Egypt Since 2011: A Critical Political Economy Approach
Koussa, Z. (2023) · Contemporary Review of the Middle East · doi:10.1177/23477989231154359 · Cited by 3
“Similarly, Barbara Geddes (1999) argues that for democracy to become consolidated, a certain level of economic development is required.”
Background
State Collapse, Democratic Dysfunction, and the Rise of Military Intervention in West Africa: A Study of Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Guinea
Ofodile, C. N. (2026) · International journal of research and innovation in social science · doi:10.47772/ijriss.2026.100600328

Authors: Geddes, B.
Affiliations: University of California, Los Angeles (US)
Corresponding author: Geddes, Barbara
ORCID: Geddes, Barbara
Venue: Annual Review of Political Science
Publisher: Annual Reviews
Published: 1999-06
Volume: 2
Issue: 1
Pages: 115-144
ISSN: 1094-2939 (ISSN-L)
1545-1577
DOI: 10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.115
OpenAlex: W2166749687
Cited by: 2,025
References: 68
Citations by year: 2026: 85 · 2025: 119 · 2024: 127 · 2023: 114 · 2022: 133 · 2021: 74 · 2020: 173 · 2019: 128 · 2018: 132 · 2017: 100 · 2016: 95 · 2015: 101 · 2014: 84 · 2013: 101 · 2012: 84
FWCI: 21.59
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Annual Review of Political Science (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Theory and Democracy
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
Keywords: democratization, tipping points, authoritarian regimes, political regimes, economic downturn, economic development and democracy, late 20th century

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What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years?

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