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What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years?
Abstract
This essay synthesizes the results of the large number of studies of late–20th-century democratization published during the last 20 years. Strong evidence supports the claims that democracy is more likely in more developed countries and that regime transitions of all kinds are more likely during economic downturns. Very few of the other arguments advanced in the transitions literature, however, appear to be generally true. This study proposes a theoretical model, rooted in characteristics of different types of authoritarian regimes, to explain many of the differences in democratization experience across cases in different regions. Evidence drawn from a data set that includes 163 authoritarian regimes offers preliminary support for the model proposed.
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“Authoritarian governments often use repression, such as torture or killings, strategically when faced with civil unrest. 41”
From Authoritarian collaboration and repression in the digital age: balancing foreign direct investment and control in internet infrastructure (2026) · cites this paper as [41]
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Legislative performance of the Russian State Duma: the role of parliament in an authoritarian regime
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BackgroundThe contagion of democracy through international networks
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“The scholars of comparative authoritarianism have distinguished between different authoritarian regime types (Geddes 1999; Hadenius and Teorell 2007; Cheibub, Gandhi, and Vreeland 2010; Geddes, Wright, and Franz 2014), and discussed the ways in which the authoritarian regimes aim to legitimate…”
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BackgroundConsolidating Progress: The Selection of Female Ministers in Autocracies and Democracies
Nyrup, J., Yamagishi, H., & Bramwell, S. (2023) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s000305542300062x · Cited by 28
“Autocratic parties are designed to extend autocratic power and durability (Geddes 1999).”
BackgroundSoldiers' Dilemma: Foreign Military Training and Liberal Norm Conflict
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Post-communist political studies: ten years later, twenty years behind?
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Tilly, C. (2003) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511756092.002 · Cited by 26
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“Yet, until recently, the dominant focus in political science has not been regimes and 7 (Dickson, 2011) 8 (Geddes, 1999b; Hadenius & Teorell, 2007) 9 Among others, see (Cheibub, Gandhi, & Vreeland, 2010; Gandhi, 2008; Geddes, 1999b; Magaloni, 2006; Pepinsky, 2009a; Wallace, 2013; Wright, 2008).”
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Davenport, C., RezaeeDaryakenari, B., & Wood, R. M. (2021) · Journal of Global Security Studies · doi:10.1093/jogss/ogab023 · Cited by 24
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BackgroundDisruptive Democratization: Contentious Events and Liberalizing Outcomes Globally, 1990–2004
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“…level of inequality and democratization (Acemoglu and Robinson 2005; Boix and Stokes 2003; Epstein et al. 2006; Lipset 1994; Przeworski and Limongi 1997), and studies that stress the role of political institutions and regime type in each country (Brownlee 2009; Geddes 1999; Linz and Stepan 1996).”
BackgroundMethodWhy democracy matters: democratic attributes and human well-being
Bellinger, N. M. (2017) · Journal of International Relations and Development · doi:10.1057/s41268-017-0105-1 · Cited by 25
Consequences of Authoritarian Party Exit and Reinvention for Democratic Competition
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“They are stable and sturdy, partly because they can resolve the critical problems of coopting society and credibly sharing power among elites (Geddes, 1999, p. 132; Svolík, 2012).”
BackgroundMobilizing the Masses: Measuring Resource Mobilization on Twitter
Reda, A. A., Sinanoğlu, S., & Abdalla, M. (2021) · Sociological Methods & Research · doi:10.1177/0049124120986197 · Cited by 27
“In these situations, such practices can amount to selecting on the dependent variable—a practice in research design which has been shown to create unreliable results in the past (Geddes 1990, 1999).”
BackgroundPolitical entry, public policies, and the economy
Mulligan, C. B., & Tsui, K. K. (2015) · Research in Economics · doi:10.1016/j.rie.2015.06.004 · Cited by 25
Dealing with Dictators: Negotiated Democratization and the Fate of Outgoing Autocrats
Albertus, M., & Menaldo, V. (2014) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/isqu.12128 · Cited by 24
Bringing Ideology in: Differing Oppositional Challenges to Hegemony in Singapore and Malaysia
Abdullah, W. J. (2015) · Government and Opposition · doi:10.1017/gov.2015.30 · Cited by 23
“While earlier transition theories assumed authoritarianism to be monolithic (Geddes 1999), subsequent works acknowledged the diverse nature of authoritarian regimes and the need to recognize that each type could posit radically different democratic propositions.”
BackgroundReforming civil–military relations
Kuehn, D., & Croissant, A. (2023) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198803362.003.0004 · Cited by 24
Metadata
- Authors
- Geddes, B.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- Corresponding author
- Geddes, Barbara
- ORCID
- Geddes, Barbara
- Venue
- Annual Review of Political Science
- Publisher
- Annual Reviews
- Published
- 1999-06
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 115-144
- ISSN
- 1094-2939 (ISSN-L)
- 1545-1577
- OpenAlex
- W2166749687
- Cited by
- 2,025
- References
- 68
- Citations by year
- 2026: 85 · 2025: 119 · 2024: 127 · 2023: 114 · 2022: 133 · 2021: 74 · 2020: 173 · 2019: 128 · 2018: 132 · 2017: 100 · 2016: 95 · 2015: 101 · 2014: 84 · 2013: 101 · 2012: 84
- FWCI
- 21.59
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Annual Review of Political Science (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Theory and Democracy
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Keywords
- democratization, tipping points, authoritarian regimes, political regimes, economic downturn, economic development and democracy, late 20th century
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