Cited by 2,025Political Conflict and GovernancePolitical Theory and DemocracyElectoral Systems and Political Participation

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What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years?

Geddes, Barbara·1999·Annual Review of Political Science

DOI 10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.115

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Abstract

This essay synthesizes the results of the large number of studies of late–20th-century democratization published during the last 20 years. Strong evidence supports the claims that democracy is more likely in more developed countries and that regime transitions of all kinds are more likely during economic downturns. Very few of the other arguments advanced in the transitions literature, however, appear to be generally true. This study proposes a theoretical model, rooted in characteristics of different types of authoritarian regimes, to explain many of the differences in democratization experience across cases in different regions. Evidence drawn from a data set that includes 163 authoritarian regimes offers preliminary support for the model proposed.

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Background
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Background
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Sanctions and Democratization in the Post-Cold War EraPreprint
von Soest, C., & Wahman, M. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2206849 · Cited by 6
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Gilli, M., & Li, Y. (2014) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 5
100 The limits of the liberal peace
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Democracy from above: regional organizations and democratization
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(Why) Do Revolutions Spread?Preprint
Keller, F. (2015) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.13140/rg.2.1.1526.9284 · Cited by 6
Risk and Reward: The Differential Impact of Authoritarian Elections on Regime Decay and BreakdownPreprint
Schuler, P., Gueorguiev, D. D., & Cantú, F. (2010) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1718056 · Cited by 5
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Authors: Geddes, B.
Affiliations: University of California, Los Angeles (US)
Corresponding author: Geddes, Barbara
ORCID: Geddes, Barbara
Venue: Annual Review of Political Science
Publisher: Annual Reviews
Published: 1999-06
Volume: 2
Issue: 1
Pages: 115-144
ISSN: 1094-2939 (ISSN-L)
1545-1577
DOI: 10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.115
OpenAlex: W2166749687
Cited by: 2,025
References: 68
Citations by year: 2026: 85 · 2025: 119 · 2024: 127 · 2023: 114 · 2022: 133 · 2021: 74 · 2020: 173 · 2019: 128 · 2018: 132 · 2017: 100 · 2016: 95 · 2015: 101 · 2014: 84 · 2013: 101 · 2012: 84
FWCI: 21.59
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Annual Review of Political Science (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Theory and Democracy
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
Keywords: democratization, tipping points, authoritarian regimes, political regimes, economic downturn, economic development and democracy, late 20th century

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What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years?

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