Cited by 2,025Political Conflict and GovernancePolitical Theory and DemocracyElectoral Systems and Political Participation

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What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years?

Geddes, Barbara·1999·Annual Review of Political Science

DOI 10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.115

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Abstract

This essay synthesizes the results of the large number of studies of late–20th-century democratization published during the last 20 years. Strong evidence supports the claims that democracy is more likely in more developed countries and that regime transitions of all kinds are more likely during economic downturns. Very few of the other arguments advanced in the transitions literature, however, appear to be generally true. This study proposes a theoretical model, rooted in characteristics of different types of authoritarian regimes, to explain many of the differences in democratization experience across cases in different regions. Evidence drawn from a data set that includes 163 authoritarian regimes offers preliminary support for the model proposed.

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“A conventional view in the literature on authoritarian regimes is that autocrats do not live in isolation and do not govern with the mere use of repressive strategies (Gandhi, 2015; Geddes, 1999).”
Development and Underdevelopment in the Middle East and North Africa
Cammett, M. C. (2017) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199845156.013.25 · Cited by 7
“( ) Multiple other sources point to the disproportionate presence of authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and North Africa (Diamond 2010; Geddes 1999).”
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“Entre les régimes les plus forts, faibles, durs ou modérés, efficaces ou non, les différences peuvent être encore plus grandes qu’avec les régimes démocratiques (Geddes, 1999).”
Background
Democratic Resilience in South Korea and Taiwan
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Renegotiating pariah state partnerships: Why Myanmar and North Korea respond differently to Chinese influence
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“Unlike military juntas, where power is diffused throughout the upper echelons of leadership, personalist regimes are defined by a single leader’s ability to control access to office and its perquisites (Geddes, 1999, pp. 121–122).”
Background
Representation in a context across political orders and the Chinese case
Heberer, T. (2019) · Journal of Chinese Governance · doi:10.1080/23812346.2019.1672363 · Cited by 7
All Power to the Party! The Sources of Ruling Party Strength in Authoritarian Regimes
Zeng, Q. (2020) · Canadian Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0008423920000839 · Cited by 8
Power consolidation with welfare designs? The emergence of old-age pensions in nondemocratic regimes around the world
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Authors: Geddes, B.
Affiliations: University of California, Los Angeles (US)
Corresponding author: Geddes, Barbara
ORCID: Geddes, Barbara
Venue: Annual Review of Political Science
Publisher: Annual Reviews
Published: 1999-06
Volume: 2
Issue: 1
Pages: 115-144
ISSN: 1094-2939 (ISSN-L)
1545-1577
DOI: 10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.115
OpenAlex: W2166749687
Cited by: 2,025
References: 68
Citations by year: 2026: 85 · 2025: 119 · 2024: 127 · 2023: 114 · 2022: 133 · 2021: 74 · 2020: 173 · 2019: 128 · 2018: 132 · 2017: 100 · 2016: 95 · 2015: 101 · 2014: 84 · 2013: 101 · 2012: 84
FWCI: 21.59
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Annual Review of Political Science (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Theory and Democracy
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
Keywords: democratization, tipping points, authoritarian regimes, political regimes, economic downturn, economic development and democracy, late 20th century

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