Can nuclear weapons fallout mark the beginning of the Anthropocene Epoch?
Open accessAbstract
Many scientists are making the case that humanity is living in a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene, but there is no agreement yet as to when this epoch began. The start might be defined by a historical event, such as the beginning of the fossil-fueled Industrial Revolution or the first nuclear explosion in 1945. Standard stratigraphic practice, however, requires a more significant, globally widespread, and abrupt signature, and the fallout from nuclear weapons testing appears most suitable. The appearance of plutonium 239 (used in post-1945 above-ground nuclear weapons tests) makes a good marker: This isotope is rare in nature but a significant component of fallout. It has other features to recommend it as a stable marker in layers of sedimentary rock and soil, including: long half-life, low solubility, and high particle reactivity. It may be used in conjunction with other radioactive isotopes, such as americium 241 and carbon 14, to categorize distinct fallout signatures in sediments and ice caps. On a global scale, the first appearance of plutonium 239 in sedimentary sequences corresponds to the early 1950s. While plutonium is easily detectable over the entire Earth using modern measurement techniques, a site to define the Anthropocene (known as a “golden spike”) would ideally be located between 30 and 60 degrees north of the equator, where fallout is maximal, within undisturbed marine or lake environments.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The appearance of a 239Pu fallout signature in 1951 C.E., peaking in 1963-1964 C.E., will be identifiable in sediments and ice for the next 100,000 years, decaying to a layer enriched in 235U and ultimately stable 207Pb.
“The appearance of a 239 Pu fallout signature in 1951 C.E., peaking in 1963-1964 C.E. (Fig. 4B) will be identifiable in sediments and ice for the next 100,000 years ( 61, 64 ), decaying to a layer enriched in 235 U and, ultimately, stable 207 Pb.”
From The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene (2016) · cites this paper as [61]
The best radioactive markers for the Anthropocene (p. 9) says plutonium-239 can be detected for about 100,000 years, and the paper discusses its signatures in sediments and ice (Abstract, p. 1; p. 11). It places the first sedimentary appearance in the early 1950s and reports a 1963 peak in some ice cores, but does not establish the precise 1951 and 1963–1964 dates or describe decay to uranium-235 and lead-207. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredFallout from thermonuclear weapon tests that began in 1952 C.E. and peaked in 1961-1962 C.E. left a clear and global signature, concentrated in the mid-latitudes and maximal in the Northern Hemisphere where most testing occurred.
“Fallout from thermonuclear weapon tests that began in 1952 C.E. and peaked in 1961 -1962 C.E. left a clear and global signature, concentrated in the mid-latitudes and maximal in the Northern Hemisphere where most testing occurred ( 47, 60, 61 ; Fig. 4B).”
From The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene (2016) · cites this paper as [61]
239Pu may be the most suitable radioisotope for marking the start of the Anthropocene.
“239 Pu, with a long half-life (24,110 years), low solubility and high particle reactivity, particularly in marine sediments, may be the most suitable radioisotope for marking the start of the Anthropocene ( 61, 64 ).”
From The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene (2016) · cites this paper as [61]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Crutzen, P. J. (2002) · Nature · doi:10.1038/415023a · Cited by 4,788 · see citing works
The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration
Steffen, W., Broadgate, W., Deutsch, L., Gaffney, O., & Ludwig, C. (2015) · The Anthropocene Review · doi:10.1177/2053019614564785 · Cited by 3,935 · see citing works
The Anthropocene: Are Humans Now Overwhelming the Great Forces of Nature
Steffen, W., Crutzen, P. J., & McNeill, J. R. (2007) · AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment · doi:10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[614:taahno]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 3,487 · see citing works
Self-citationLewis, S. L., & Maslin, M. A. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature14258 · Cited by 3,441 · cited 3× · see citing works
“One recent paper argues for either 1610 (when atmospheric carbon dioxide levels dipped after the arrival of Europeans brought death to about 50 million native people in the Americas) or 1964 (based on peak carbon 14 fallout signatures) as potential kickoff dates (Lewis and Maslin, 2015).”
BackgroundFrom the Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society
Parsons, W. (2011) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139103848.007 · Cited by 1,079 · see citing works
Atmospheric radiocarbon for the period 1950–2010
Hua, Q., Barbetti, M., & Rakowski, A. Z. (2013) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.2458/azu_js_rc.v55i2.16177 · Cited by 1,019 · see citing works
Discussion: Reporting and Calibration of Post-Bomb <sup>14</sup> C Data
(2004) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/s0033822200033154 · Cited by 906 · see citing works
Walker, M. J. C., Johnsen, S. J., Rasmussen, S. O., Popp, T., Steffensen, J. P., Gibbard, P. L., Hoek, W. Z., Lowe, J. J., Andrews, J. T., Björck, S., et al. (2008) · Journal of Quaternary Science · doi:10.1002/jqs.1227 · Cited by 739 · see citing works
Eliott, S., & Bellamy, J. C. (2001) · Cited by 703 · see citing works
The Anthropocene: a new epoch of geological time?
Zalasiewicz, J., Williams, M., Haywood, A., & Ellis, M. (2011) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0339 · Cited by 646 · see citing works
Self-citationSmith, B. D., & Zeder, M. A. (2013) · Anthropocene · doi:10.1016/j.ancene.2013.05.001 · Cited by 546 · see citing works
A stratigraphical basis for the Anthropocene?
Waters, C. N., Zalasiewicz, J. A., Williams, M., Ellis, M. A., & Snelling, A. M. (2014) · Geological Society, London, Special Publications · doi:10.1144/sp395.18 · Cited by 318 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Palaeoanthropocene – The beginnings of anthropogenic environmental change
Foley, S., Gronenborn, D., Andreae, M. O., Kadereit, J. W., Esper, J., Scholz, D., Pöschl, U., Jacob, D. E., Schöne, B. R., Schreg, R., et al. (2013) · Anthropocene · doi:10.1016/j.ancene.2013.11.002 · Cited by 294 · see citing works
Anthropogenic marine radioactivity
Livingston, H. D., & Povinec, P. P. (2000) · Ocean & Coastal Management · doi:10.1016/s0964-5691(00)00054-5 · Cited by 221 · see citing works
Input of anthropogenic radionuclides into the World Ocean
Aarkrog, A. (2003) · Deep Sea Research Part II Topical Studies in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/s0967-0645(03)00137-1 · Cited by 199 · see citing works
Diachronous beginnings of the Anthropocene: The lower bounding surface of anthropogenic deposits
Edgeworth, M., deB Richter, D., Waters, C., Haff, P., Neal, C., & Price, S. J. (2015) · The Anthropocene Review · doi:10.1177/2053019614565394 · Cited by 181 · see citing works
Self-citationNow It Can be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project.
Jones, V. C., Groves, L. R., STRAUSS, L. L., et al. (1962) · Military Affairs · doi:10.2307/1985613 · Cited by 179 · see citing works
Natural and anthropogenic radionuclide distributions in the northwest Atlantic Ocean
Cochran, J. K., Livingston, H. D., Hirschberg, D. J., et al. (1987) · Earth and Planetary Science Letters · doi:10.1016/0012-821x(87)90081-1 · Cited by 139 · see citing works
Depositional history of artificial radionuclides in the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica
Koide, M., Michel, R. L., Goldberg, E. D., Herron, M. M., & Langway, C. C. (1979) · Earth and Planetary Science Letters · doi:10.1016/0012-821x(79)90169-9 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
Lee, S., Povinec, P. P., Wyse, E., et al. (2005) · Marine Geology · doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2005.02.013 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Zheng, J., & Yamada, M. (2006) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/es0601179 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Eby, G. N., Hermes, R., Charnley, N., et al. (2010) · Geology Today · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2451.2010.00767.x · Cited by 84 · see citing works
The behaviour of plutonium in the Pacific Ocean
Livingston, H. D., Povinec, P. P., Ito, T., & Togawa, O. (2001) · Radioactivity in the environment · doi:10.1016/s1569-4860(01)80019-x · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Gabrieli, J., Cozzi, G., Vallelonga, P., Schwikowski, M., Sigl, M., Eickenberg, J., Wacker, L., Boutron, C., Gäggeler, H., Cescon, P., et al. (2011) · Atmospheric Environment · doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.10.039 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Palaeontological evidence for defining the Anthropocene
Barnosky, A. D. (2014) · Geological Society, London, Special Publications · doi:10.1144/sp395.6 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Self-citationTransuranic depositional history in South Greenland firn layers
Koide, M., Goldberg, E. D., Herron, M. M., & Langway, C. C. (1977) · Nature · doi:10.1038/269137a0 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Distribution and movement of environmental plutonium
Choppin, G. R., & Morgenstern, A. (2001) · Radioactivity in the environment · doi:10.1016/s1569-4860(01)80009-7 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Quinto, F., Hrnecek, E., Krachler, M., et al. (2013) · Environmental Science Processes & Impacts · doi:10.1039/c3em30910j · Cited by 41 · see citing works
The release and persistence of radioactive anthropogenic nuclides
Hancock, G. J., Tims, S. G., Fifield, L. K., & Webster, I. T. (2014) · Geological Society, London, Special Publications · doi:10.1144/sp395.15 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Self-citationSpatial and temporal distribution of Pu in the Northwest Pacific Ocean using modern coral archives
Lindahl, P., Andersen, M. B., Keith‐Roach, M. J., Worsfold, P. J., Hyeong, K., Choi, M.-S., & Lee, S. (2011) · Environment International · doi:10.1016/j.envint.2011.08.004 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Zalasiewicz, J., Crutzen, P. J., & Steffen, W. (2012) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-444-59425-9.00032-9 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Self-citation(2011) · Nature · doi:10.1038/473254a · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Binding of 239Pu and 90Sr to Organic Colloids in Soil Solutions: Evidence from a Field Experiment
Chawla, F., Steinmann, P., Loizeau, J., et al. (2010) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/es101766g · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Known Nuclear Tests Worldwide, 1945–98
(1998) · Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists · doi:10.1080/00963402.1998.11456906 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Volcanic markers for dating the onset of the Anthropocene
Smith, V. (2013) · Geological Society London Special Publications · doi:10.1144/sp395.11 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Assessing the nuclear age : selections from the Bulletin of the atomic scientists
Ackland, L., & McGuire, S. (1986) · DigitalGeorgetown (Georgetown University Library) · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- Hua Q, Barbetti M and Rakowski AZ (2013) Atmospheric radiocarbon for the period 19502010. Radiocarbon 55(4): 2059-2072. Available at: https://journals.uair.arizona.edu/index.php/radiocarbon/article/view/16177.
- Zalasiewicz J, Waters CN, Williams M et al. (2015) When did the Anthropocene begin? A mid-twentieth century boundary level is stratigraphically optimal. Quaternary International . Available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618214009136.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene
Waters, C. N., Zalasiewicz, J., Summerhayes, C., Barnosky, A. D., Poirier, C., Gałuszka, A., Cearreta, A., Edgeworth, M., Ellis, E. C., Ellis, M., et al. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aad2622 · Cited by 2,375 · see citing works
“(239)Pu, with its long half-life (24,110 years), low solubility, and high particle reactivity, particularly in marine sediments, may be the most suitable radioisotope for marking the start of theAnthropocene (61, 64).”
BackgroundSelf-citationThe Working Group on the Anthropocene: Summary of evidence and interim recommendations
Zalasiewicz, J., Waters, C. N., Summerhayes, C. P., Wolfe, A. P., Barnosky, A. D., Cearreta, A., Crutzen, P., Ellis, E., Fairchild, I. J., Gałuszka, A., et al. (2017) · Anthropocene · doi:10.1016/j.ancene.2017.09.001 · Cited by 487 · see citing works
Self-citationHead, M. J., Steffen, W., Fagerlind, D., Waters, C. N., Poirier, C., Syvitski, J., Zalasiewicz, J. A., Barnosky, A. D., Cearreta, A., Jeandel, C., et al. (2022) · Episodes · doi:10.18814/epiiugs/2021/021031 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
Self-citationMembers of the Anthropocene Working Group:, Zalasiewicz, J., Waters, C. N., Barnosky, A. D., Cearreta, A., Edgeworth, M., Ellis, E. C., Gałuszka, A., Gibbard, P. L., Grinevald, J., et al. (2015) · The Anthropocene Review · doi:10.1177/2053019615587056 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Waters, C. N., Syvitski, J. P. M., Gałuszka, A., Hancock, G. J., Zalasiewicz, J., Cearreta, A., Grinevald, J., Jeandel, C., McNeill, J. R., Summerhayes, C., & Barnosky, A.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2015-01
- Volume
- 71
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 46-57
- ISSN
- 0096-3402 (ISSN-L)
- 1938-3282
- OpenAlex
- W2131808116
- Cited by
- 213
- References
- 37
- Citations by year
- 2026: 19 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 21 · 2023: 24 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 18 · 2019: 21 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 18 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 3
- FWCI
- 10.66
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- figshare.com
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (publishedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (acceptedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Leicester Research Archive (University of Leicester) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Graduate Institute Geneva Institutional Repository (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (bgs05001)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Radioactive contamination and transfer
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Nuclear Issues and Defense
- Keywords
- Anthropocene, nuclear weapons fallout, plutonium-239, stratigraphic markers, golden spike, radiocarbon dating, americium-241, sedimentary record, ice cores, geological epochs
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
