The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration
Open accessAbstract
The ‘Great Acceleration’ graphs, originally published in 2004 to show socio-economic and Earth System trends from 1750 to 2000, have now been updated to 2010. In the graphs of socio-economic trends, where the data permit, the activity of the wealthy (OECD) countries, those countries with emerging economies, and the rest of the world have now been differentiated. The dominant feature of the socio-economic trends is that the economic activity of the human enterprise continues to grow at a rapid rate. However, the differentiated graphs clearly show that strong equity issues are masked by considering global aggregates only. Most of the population growth since 1950 has been in the non-OECD world but the world’s economy (GDP), and hence consumption, is still strongly dominated by the OECD world. The Earth System indicators, in general, continued their long-term, post-industrial rise, although a few, such as atmospheric methane concentration and stratospheric ozone loss, showed a slowing or apparent stabilisation over the past decade. The post-1950 acceleration in the Earth System indicators remains clear. Only beyond the mid-20th century is there clear evidence for fundamental shifts in the state and functioning of the Earth System that are beyond the range of variability of the Holocene and driven by human activities. Thus, of all the candidates for a start date for the Anthropocene, the beginning of the Great Acceleration is by far the most convincing from an Earth System science perspective.
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Most dams were built in the past 60 years, at an average of more than one large dam per day, and each will last 50 to 200 years, interrupting sediment transport to the oceans.
“Most dams were built in the past 60 years, at an average of more than one large dam per day ( 8, 9 ), and each will last 50 to 200 years, interrupting sediment transport to the oceans.”
From The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene (2016) · cites this paper as [9]
The large-dams figure caption describes a historical global count of existing large dams, and section 3 says that count has leveled off over the last 10–15 years. Our copy does not state that most dams were built in the past 60 years or substantiate the claimed average of more than one per day. The citation appears before the separate claims about dam lifespan and sediment transport, so those are not assessed here. (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredValues of δ13C through the Great Acceleration ranged from −34.0 in 1972-1973 to −24.6‰ in 1932-1933 (mean −29.9‰, n = 28), with the most enriched values measured through the 1930s and 40s, following depleted values between 1900 and 1930 CE.
“Values of δ13C through the Great Acceleration (Head et al., 2022; Steffen et al., 2015) ranged from −34.0 in 1972 –1973 to −24.6‰ in 1932–1933 (mean −29.9‰, n = 28), with the most enriched values measured through the 1930s and 40s, following depleted values between 1900 and 1930 CE.”
From The varved succession of Crawford Lake, Milton, Ontario, Canada as a candidate Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point for the Anthropocene series (2023) · cites this paper as Steffen et al., 2015
The Abstract and §1 (Origins; page unavailable) support using Steffen et al. to identify the Great Acceleration, but they place its onset around 1950. The paper does not report the δ13C measurements or summary statistics in the sentence, and its dating does not place the 1930s and 1940s within the Great Acceleration. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredCarbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles have been substantially modified over the last century.
“Carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles have been substantially modified over the last century.”
From The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene (2016) · cites this paper as [9]
Section 5 says the nitrogen cycle has been massively altered over the past century, while Sections 3 and 5 describe rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and changing ocean carbonate chemistry. The paper records phosphate fertilizer consumption, but the passages do not establish that the phosphorus cycle itself has been substantially modified. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredNitrogen and phosphorus in soils have doubled in the past century through increased fertilizer use.
“Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in soils have doubled in the past century through increased fertilizer use ( 8, 9, 48 ).”
From The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene (2016) · cites this paper as [9]
Section 5 says the nitrogen cycle has been massively altered over the past century following the development of nitrogen fertilizer. Section 3 reports rising global fertilizer consumption, and the figure caption includes nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers. Neither passage says that nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in soils doubled, or attributes such a doubling to fertilizer use. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe Great Acceleration is amplified by industrial emissions from the city of Hamilton where the steel industry boomed between the 1940s and 1980s, a proxy for industrialization across northeastern North America.
“The Great Acceleration (Head et al., 2022; Steffen et al., 2015) is amplified by industrial emissions from the city of Hamilton where the steel industry boomed between the 1940s and 1980s, a proxy for industrialization across northeastern North America.”
From The varved succession of Crawford Lake, Milton, Ontario, Canada as a candidate Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point for the Anthropocene series (2023) · cites this paper as Steffen et al., 2015
The inflection point at ~1950 C.E. coincides with the 'Great Acceleration', a prominent rise in economic activity and resource consumption.
“The inflection point at ~1950 C.E. coincides with the 'Great Acceleration' ( 8, 9 ), a prominent rise in economic activity and resource consumption that accounts for the marked mid-20 th century upturns or inceptions in the anthropogenic signals detailed below.”
From The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene (2016) · cites this paper as [9]
Other anthropogenic materials that appeared or exponentially accumulated during the Great Acceleration from the mid-twentieth century include plastic, concrete and spheroidal carbonaceous particles.
“These include during the Great Acceleration [69] from the mid-twentieth century, materials such as plastic, concrete and spheroidal carbonaceous particles [1].”
From The broiler chicken as a signal of a human reconfigured biosphere (2018) · cites this paper as [69]
The accelerating socioeconomic trends of the past century have put us on a path toward exceeding seven of eight globally defined safe and just Earth system boundaries.
“The accelerating socioeconomic trends of the past century [232] have put us on a path toward exceeding seven of eight globally defined safe and just Earth system boundaries that would provide safe living conditions for all humanity within the boundaries of the living systems on Earth [219].”
From Sustainability in computing education: A systematic literature review (2024) · cites this paper as [232]
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Waters, C. N., Syvitski, J. P. M., Gałuszka, A., Hancock, G. J., Zalasiewicz, J., Cearreta, A., Grinevald, J., Jeandel, C., McNeill, J. R., Summerhayes, C., et al. (2015) · Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists · doi:10.1177/0096340215581357 · Cited by 213 · see citing works
O'Rourke, D., & Lollo, N. (2015) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-102014-021224 · Cited by 200 · see citing works
Regime shifts in the anthropocene: drivers, risks, and resilience
Rocha, J. C., Peterson, G. D., & Biggs, R. (2015) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0134639 · Cited by 181 · see citing works
Gupta, J., Bai, X., Liverman, D. M., Rockström, J., Qin, D., Stewart-Koster, B., Rocha, J. C., Jacobson, L., Abrams, J. F., Andersen, L. S., et al. (2024) · The Lancet Planetary Health · doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(24)00042-1 · Cited by 197 · see citing works
Self-citationRose, N. L. (2015) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.5b00543 · Cited by 178 · see citing works
Mihoub, J.-B., Henle, K., Titeux, N., Brotons, L., Brummitt, N. A., & Schmeller, D. S. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep41591 · Cited by 172 · see citing works
McCarthy, F. M., Patterson, R. T., Head, M. J., Riddick, N. L., Cumming, B. F., Hamilton, P. B., Pisaric, M. F., Gushulak, A. C., Leavitt, P. R., Lafond, K. M., et al. (2023) · The Anthropocene Review · doi:10.1177/20530196221149281 · Cited by 160 · see citing works
“Values of δ 13 C through the Great Acceleration (Head et al., 2022; Steffen et al., 2015) ranged from −34.0 in 1972 –1973 to −24.6‰ in 1932–1933 (mean −29.9‰, n = 28), with the most enriched values measured through the 1930s and 40s, following depleted values between 1900 and 1930 CE.”
InfluentialA unifying framework for studying and managing climate-driven rates of ecological change
Williams, J. W., Ordonez, A., & Svenning, J.-C. (2020) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-020-01344-5 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
Head, M. J., Steffen, W., Fagerlind, D., Waters, C. N., Poirier, C., Syvitski, J., Zalasiewicz, J. A., Barnosky, A. D., Cearreta, A., Jeandel, C., et al. (2022) · Episodes · doi:10.18814/epiiugs/2021/021031 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
Self-citationNontarget Screening Reveals Time Trends of Polar Micropollutants in a Riverbank Filtration System
Albergamo, V., Schollée, J. E., Schymanski, E. L., Helmus, R., Timmer, H., Hollender, J., & de Voogt, P. (2019) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.9b01750 · Cited by 118 · see citing works
Sverdrup, H. U., Koca, D., & Schlyter, P. (2017) · BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality · doi:10.1007/s41247-017-0023-2 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Digitalization and the Anthropocene
Creutzig, F., Acemoglu, D., Bai, X., Edwards, P. N., Hintz, M. J., Kaack, L. H., Kilkis, S., Kunkel, S., Luers, A., Milojevic-Dupont, N., et al. (2022) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-120920-100056 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
A practical solution: the Anthropocene is a geological event, not a formal epoch
Gibbard, P. L., Bauer, A. M., Edgeworth, M., Ruddiman, W. F., Gill, J. L., Merritts, D. J., Finney, S. C., Edwards, L. E., Walker, M. J. C., Maslin, M., et al. (2022) · Episodes · doi:10.18814/epiiugs/2021/021029 · Cited by 100 · see citing works
“For instance, manifestations of the Anthropocene Event over the last century, such as rapidly increasing global temperatures associated with the Great Acceleration (Steffen et al., 2007; Steffen et al., 2015; Zalasiewicz et al., 2019), are constituted through the compounding of multiple events and processes, including…”
BackgroundInfluentialWilliams, M., Zalasiewicz, J., Waters, C. N., Edgeworth, M., Bennett, C., Barnosky, A. D., Ellis, E. C., Ellis, M. A., Cearreta, A., Haff, P. K., et al. (2016) · Earth's Future · doi:10.1002/2015ef000339 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Self-citationA global doubling of dust emissions during the Anthropocene?
Hooper, J., & Marx, S. (2018) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.07.003 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Members of the Anthropocene Working Group:, Zalasiewicz, J., Waters, C. N., Barnosky, A. D., Cearreta, A., Edgeworth, M., Ellis, E. C., Gałuszka, A., Gibbard, P. L., Grinevald, J., et al. (2015) · The Anthropocene Review · doi:10.1177/2053019615587056 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Self-citationRoutledge Handbook of the Resource Nexus
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Sustainability in computing education: A systematic literature review
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Three flaws in defining a formal ‘Anthropocene’
Ruddiman, W. F. (2018) · Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment · doi:10.1177/0309133318783142 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Transnational corporations, biosphere stewardship, and sustainable futures
Österblom, H., Bebbington, J., Blasiak, R., Sobkowiak, M., & Folke, C. (2022) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-120120-052845 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Uncharted waters: the rise of human-made aquatic environments in the age of the “Anthropocene”
Saulnier-Talbot, É., & Lavoie, I. (2018) · Anthropocene · doi:10.1016/j.ancene.2018.07.003 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Acceleration hotspots of North American birds’ decline are associated with agriculture
Leroy, F., Jarzyna, M. A., & Keil, P. (2026) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.ads0871 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
- Authors
- Steffen, W., Broadgate, W., Deutsch, L., Gaffney, O., & Ludwig, C.
- Affiliations
- Australian National University (AU)
- International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), Sweden
- Stockholm University (SE)
- Venue
- The Anthropocene Review
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2015-01-16
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 81-98
- ISSN
- 2053-0196 (ISSN-L)
- 2053-020X
- OpenAlex
- W2139274755
- Cited by
- 3,935
- References
- 59
- Citations by year
- 2026: 248 · 2025: 347 · 2024: 430 · 2023: 590 · 2022: 405 · 2021: 493 · 2020: 395 · 2019: 376 · 2018: 291 · 2017: 186 · 2016: 115 · 2015: 56 · 2014: 1 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 150.13
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Anthropocene Review (publishedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Earth Systems and Cosmic Evolution
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Sustainable Development and Environmental Policy
- Keywords
- Anthropocene, Great Acceleration, socio-economic trends, economic growth, OECD countries, emerging markets, global inequality, population growth, atmospheric methane, stratospheric ozone depletion, human impact on Earth systems
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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