Change in risk of Alzheimer disease over time
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVE: To assess whether the risk of incidence of Alzheimer disease (AD) varies over time. The increase in numbers of people at the oldest ages in the population will bring an increase in the number of people with AD. Projections of the size of the increase assume the risk of AD is constant. METHODS: All persons age 65 or older in a biracial, geographically defined area were invited to participate in a home interview every 3 years. From the approximately 10,000 participants, stratified random samples were selected for detailed clinical evaluation. At each cycle, individuals determined free of AD in a previous cycle, either by examination or by high score on cognitive function tests, were sampled in the subsequent cycle for evaluation for incident AD. The evaluations for disease were structured and uniform across time. These analyses include 1,695 subjects evaluated for incident disease from 1997 through 2008. RESULTS: AD developed in 360 participants. Change over time in risk of incident disease was assessed in logistic regression analyses including evaluation date and controlling for age, gender, education, race, interval from disease-free designation to evaluation for incident disease, and sample design. The time variable (in years) was not significant (odds ratio = 0.970, 95% confidence interval = 0.902 to 1.044). CONCLUSIONS: The null relation of evaluation date to disease incidence suggests no recent change in risk of AD over time, and supports this assumption for projections of AD.
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The greatest risk factors for late-onset Alzheimer's are older age, genetics (especially the e4 form of the APOE gene), and having a family history of Alzheimer's.
“The greatest risk factors for late-onset Alzheimer's are older age, 62,63 genetics 64,65 -especially the e4 form of the apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene -and having a family history of Alzheimer's.[66][67][68][69]”
From 2023 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2023) · cites this paper as [62]
The Discussion identifies age as an important predictor of Alzheimer disease risk, and the Results treat APOE ε4 as a biological risk factor. The paper does not establish that these are the greatest risk factors or address a family history of Alzheimer’s as a risk factor; a search for family history found no relevant passage. No page numbers were provided for these sections. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe main risk factor for sporadic Alzheimer's disease is age.
“The main risk factor for SAD is age. Indeed, increased life expectancy is correlated with a higher probability of developing neurodegenerative diseases, including AD [89,90].”
From Alzheimer's Disease: Treatment Strategies and Their Limitations. (2022) · cites this paper as [89]
The greatest risk factors for Alzheimer's dementia are older age, genetics - especially the e4 form of the apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene - and having a family history of Alzheimer's dementia.
“The greatest risk factors for Alzheimer's dementia are older age, 70 , 71 genetics — especially the e4 form of the apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene 72 , 73 — and having a family history of Alzheimer's dementia.”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [70]
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- Authors
- Hebert, L. E., Bienias, J. L., Aggarwal, N. T., Wilson, R. S., Bennett, D. A., Shah, R. C., & Evans, D. A.
- Affiliations
- Rush University Medical Center (US)
- Corresponding author
- Hebert, L.E.
- Venue
- Neurology
- Published
- 2010-08-31
- Volume
- 75
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 786-791
- ISSN
- 0028-3878 (ISSN-L)
- 1526-632X
- PMC
- PMC2938969
- OpenAlex
- W2163324016
- Cited by
- 158
- References
- 23
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 19 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 18 · 2018: 15 · 2017: 14 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 7 · 2013: 4 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 2.62
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Neurology (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (AG11101)
- National Institute on Aging (RC2AG036650, R01AG017917, P30-AG 10161, U01AG012505, R01AG030146, AG 10161, R01 AG15819, AG029652, AG030146, R01AG11101, AG09966, AG-11101, R01AG030142, R01AG032247, U01 AG016979, R01AG011101, R01AG036042, U01AG010483, R01AG015819, P30AG010161, P01AG01449, AG036650, R01AG032755, R01AG030544, RC2AG036547, AG021972, R01AG024480, R01AG021972, P01AG009466, U24AG026395, P30 AG101061, 01AG032984, AG12505, R03AG029652, R01AG009966, R01AG024871, R01AG033678, R01AG034374, R01AG022018)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (HL 084209, R01HL084209, R01HL096944)
- National Institute of Nursing Research (R01NR009543, R01NR010211, NR009543)
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (R01ES010902, ES 10902)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Alzheimer's disease research and treatments
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Menopause: Health Impacts and Treatments
- Keywords
- Alzheimer's disease, incidence, oldest old, cognitive function
- MeSH terms
- Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Alzheimer Disease, Black or African American, Chicago, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, Time Factors, Cohort Studies, Incidence, Black People, White People, Apolipoprotein E4
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