A New Approach to Reduce Uncertainties in Space Radiation Cancer Risk Predictions
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The prediction of space radiation induced cancer risk carries large uncertainties with two of the largest uncertainties being radiation quality and dose-rate effects. In risk models the ratio of the quality factor (QF) to the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF) parameter is used to scale organ doses for cosmic ray proton and high charge and energy (HZE) particles to a hazard rate for γ-rays derived from human epidemiology data. In previous work, particle track structure concepts were used to formulate a space radiation QF function that is dependent on particle charge number Z, and kinetic energy per atomic mass unit, E. QF uncertainties where represented by subjective probability distribution functions (PDF) for the three QF parameters that described its maximum value and shape parameters for Z and E dependences. Here I report on an analysis of a maximum QF parameter and its uncertainty using mouse tumor induction data. Because experimental data for risks at low doses of γ-rays are highly uncertain which impacts estimates of maximum values of relative biological effectiveness (RBEmax), I developed an alternate QF model, denoted QFγAcute where QFs are defined relative to higher acute γ-ray doses (0.5 to 3 Gy). The alternate model reduces the dependence of risk projections on the DDREF, however a DDREF is still needed for risk estimates for high-energy protons and other primary or secondary sparsely ionizing space radiation components. Risk projections (upper confidence levels (CL)) for space missions show a reduction of about 40% (CL∼50%) using the QFγAcute model compared the QFs based on RBEmax and about 25% (CL∼35%) compared to previous estimates. In addition, I discuss how a possible qualitative difference leading to increased tumor lethality for HZE particles compared to low LET radiation and background tumors remains a large uncertainty in risk estimates.
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More recent versions of the NSCR model suggest the possibility of a much higher risk than 3% fatality at 600 mSv for 35-year-old females.
“In-fact, the more recent versions of NSCR model suggest the possibility of a much higher risk than 3% fatality at 600 mSv for 35-y old females”
From A proposed change to astronaut exposures limits is a giant leap backwards for radiation protection (2021) · cites this paper as Cucinotta, 2015
Table 4 in the Results shows that the upper confidence limits for predicted radiation-induced death risk in female never-smokers exceed 3%, supporting the possibility of a higher risk. But those predictions concern 45-year-old women on a one-year space mission; the paper does not establish the claimed risk specifically for 35-year-old women at 600 mSv. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredSince 2012 several new versions of the NSCR model have been developed and published by Cucinotta et al.
“Since 2012 several new versions of the NSCR model have been developed and published by Cucinotta et al. (Cucinotta, 2015;Cucinotta et al., 2015;Cucinotta et al., 2016;Cacao et al., 2016;Cucinotta et al., 2017;Cucinotta and Cacao, 2017;Cucinotta et al., 2018;Cucinotta et al., 2020;Cucinotta et al., 2020).”
From A proposed change to astronaut exposures limits is a giant leap backwards for radiation protection (2021) · cites this paper as Cucinotta, 2015
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- Authors
- Cucinotta, F. A.
- Affiliations
- University of Nevada, Las Vegas (US)
- Corresponding author
- Cucinotta, Francis A.
- Venue
- PLOS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2015-03-19
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- e0120717
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC4366386
- OpenAlex
- W2094130837
- Cited by
- 79
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 4
- FWCI
- 7.66
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy
- University of Nevada, Las Vegas
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Radiation Therapy and Dosimetry
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging › Effects of Radiation Exposure
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Spaceflight effects on biology
- Keywords
- space radiation, radiation-induced cancer risk, quality factor, relative biological effectiveness, cosmic ray protons, HZE particles, risk and uncertainty, space missions
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Bayes Theorem, Cosmic Radiation, Dose-Response Relationship, Radiation, Female, Gamma Rays, Humans, Male, Mice, Inbred BALB C, Middle Aged, Neoplasms, Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced, Risk Assessment, Uncertainty, Mice
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