Firearm injuries in Missouri
Open accessAbstract
Firearm deaths continue to be a major public health problem, but the number of non-fatal firearm injuries and the characteristics of patients and injuries is not well known. The American College of Surgeons Committee on Trauma, with support from the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research, leveraged an existing data system to capture lethal and non-lethal injuries, including patients treated and discharged from the emergency department and collect additional data on firearm injuries that present to trauma centers. In 2020, Missouri had the 4th highest firearm mortality rate in the country at 23.75/100,000 population compared to 13.58/100,000 for the US overall. We examined the characteristics of patients from Missouri with firearm injuries in this cross-sectional study. Of the overall 17,395 patients, 1,336 (7.7%) were treated at one of the 11 participating trauma centers in Missouri during the 12-month study period. Patients were mostly male and much more likely to be Black and uninsured than residents in the state as a whole. Nearly three-fourths of the injuries were due to assaults, and overall 7.7% died. Few patients received post-discharge services.
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This cross-sectional study characterized 1,336 firearm injury patients with Missouri residential zip codes treated at 11 participating ACS trauma centers from March 2021 to February 2022. Patients were disproportionately young, male, Black, uninsured, and from highly distressed communities; most injuries were assaults, 7.7% died, and few received post-discharge services.
Key findings
- Of 17,395 patients in the data system, 1,336 (7.7%) were treated at one of 11 participating Missouri trauma centers; median age was 29.0 years, 83.0% were male, 78.8% were Black versus 11.8% of Missouri residents, and 53.1% were uninsured versus 9.3% statewide.
- Injury intent was 72.9% assault, 10.8% unintentional, and 3.9% self-inflicted; among 708 patients with context data, assault injuries commonly involved community violence, self-inflicted injuries were associated with intoxication in 25.8%, mental illness in 48.4%, and personal crisis in 45.2%, while unintentional injuries usually involved firearm handling (78.5%).
- Overall, 7.7% died (103/1,336), including 66 deaths in the ED; 43.4% were discharged alive from the ED, and among survivors only 12.3% received any discharge care, 4.3% received social work/mental health services, and 5.4% received violence intervention/IPV services.
- Patients lived in more distressed communities than the state overall: mean Distressed Community Index score 81.1 versus 61.5, with 69.4% in the most distressed quintile versus 24.6% of Missouri; urban patients were more likely than rural patients to be in the most distressed quintile (71.9% vs 39.8%).
Methods
- Cross-sectional study using ACS Trauma Quality Improvement Program data from 11 Missouri trauma centers; eligible patients were any age, arrived alive, had a Missouri residential zip code, and had a firearm injury between March 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022. Centers started participation at varying times and may not have contributed 12 months of data.
- Data were abstracted from the electronic health record by trained personnel, with expanded inclusion of patients discharged from the ED and additional variables on demographics, risk factors, injury circumstances, firearms, and discharge outcomes; RUCA codes and the Distressed Community Index were linked by ZIP code.
- Analysis used descriptive tables, Pearson chi-squared tests, two-sided t-tests, and Fisher’s exact tests when cells had fewer than 10 observations; p-values were significant at 0.05. Sex and alcohol screen results were imputed, and several select-all variables were recoded; analyses were done in RStudio 4.2.2.
Limitations
- The paper states that many firearm deaths occur at the scene, especially suicide attempts (about 90% lethal), so self-inflicted injuries are underrepresented (only 4.3% of patients); missingness may reflect inadequate resources, training, and documentation, plus extra abstraction burden during the COVID-19 pandemic; centers started at varying times and may not have contributed 12 months, underrepresenting all patients treated at participating centers; no additional funding supported data collection.
- The text also makes evident substantial missingness in key variables, including drug screen (71.8%), prior arrest/incarceration (65.7%), context of injury (47.0%), and mental illness (29.0%), which limits interpretation.
- The study relies on volunteer trauma centers and compares patients mainly with state residents rather than a matched control group, so findings may not generalize to all firearm injuries in Missouri.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
6 of 20 cited sources checked · 1 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Interpretationcitation
The data demonstrate the effects of long-standing structural racism on the epidemiology of firearm injuries.
“Combined with the fact that the vast majority of firearm injuries in these urban areas were to Black males, the data demonstrate the effects of long-standing structural racism on the epidemiology of firearm injuries [9–11].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked- cites [9] M Siegel, 2022, Measuring Structural Racism and Its Association with Racial Disparities in Firearm Homicide., J Racial Ethn Health Disparities source
The Discussion reports that county-level structural racism scores were associated with higher Black firearm homicide rates and greater Black–White disparities. That supports a relationship with firearm homicide, but the paper does not establish causal effects or address firearm injuries generally. Its Methods measure county-level homicide rates, not the urban injury patterns described in the citing sentence. Page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [10] M Siegel, 2023, The relationship between state-level structural racism and disparities between the non-hispanic black and non-hispanic white populations in multiple health outcomes., J Natl Med Assoc source
- cites [11] B Wong, 2020, Differences in Racial Disparities in Firearm Homicide across Cities: The Role of Racial Residential Segregation and Gaps in Structural Disadvantage., J Natl Med Assoc source
- Premisecitation
The currently available evidence suggests that hospital-based violence intervention programs do not prevent recidivism and subsequent violence.
“While hospital-based violence intervention programs are often suggested as interventions to prevent recidivism and subsequent violence [17], the currently available evidence suggests otherwise [18, 19].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites [18] DW Webster, 2022, Research on the efefcts of hosptial-based violence intervention programs: Observations and recommendations., Annals American Academy Policial Social Sciences source
- cites [19] S Affinati, 2016, Hospital-based violence intyervention programs targeting adult populaitons: an Eastern Association for the Suergey of Trauma evidence-based review., Trauma Surgy Acute Care Open source
The Results report that four studies found no effect and that no study demonstrated a statistically significant reduction in violent reinjury. But three studies suggested a positive effect, and the Conclusions say the weak aggregate evidence permits neither validation nor invalidation of HVIP efficacy. The review therefore does not support the broader inference that the available evidence suggests these programs do not prevent recidivism. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Findingown data
Nearly three-fourths of the injuries were due to assaults.
“Nearly three-fourths of the injuries were due to assaults, and overall 7.7% died.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingnone given
Even fewer had access to violence prevention programs.
“Very few had social work services post-discharge, and even fewer had access to violence prevention programs.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
When patient outcomes were examined by insurance status, stratifying for injury intent, there were no significant differences in mortality.
“When we examined patient outcomes by insurance status, stratifying for injury intent, there were no significant differences in mortality (Table 5).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
- Findingown data
Unintentional injuries were usually associated with handling the firearm (78.5%).
“Handling | 106 (78.5%)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Only 4.3% received social work or mental health services.
“only 4.3% received social work or mental health services”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In this study, only 3.8% had a prior arrest.
“In this study, only 3.8% had a prior arrest although 114 of the total (11.8%) had a prior assault.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
83.0% of Missouri firearm injury patients were male.
“these patients were mostly young (median age 29.0) adult males (83.0%).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Among the 708 patients for whom context of injury data was available, assault injuries most commonly occurred in the context of community violence.
“In the 708 patients for whom context of injury data was available, assault injuries most commonly occurred in the context of community violence.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Among self-inflicted injuries with context data, mental illness was reported in 48.4%.
“while mental illness was reported in 48.4%.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Prior mental illness was recorded in 12.6% of patients.
“Prior mental illness was recorded in 12.6% of patients”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Older adults were less likely to live in the highest DCI quintile compared to those 65 and younger (42.9% vs 70.0%).
“Older adults were less likely to live in the highest DCI quintile compared to those 65 and younger (42.9% vs 70.0%).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Firearm injuries among patients in urban areas are associated with especially high community distress.
“This is especially true for injuries among patients in urban areas.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Missouri firearm injury patients were much more likely to be Black (78.8%) than Missouri state residents (11.8%).
“Firearm injured patients in Missouri were much more likely to be Black (78.8% compared with 11.8% of state residents)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Using the RUCA codes for residence zip code, 7.7% of the patients were from rural Missouri.
“Using the RUCA codes for residence zip code, 7.7% of the patients were from rural Missouri.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Only 5.4% received any services related to violence.
“and only 5.4% received any services related to violence.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Among self-inflicted injuries with context data, 25.8% occurred in the context of intoxication.
“Self-inflicted injuries occurred in the context of intoxication in 25.8% patients”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Among patients injured by assault, those covered by Medicaid or Medicare were less likely to be discharged home from the ED compared to those in the commercial insurance and uninsured groups.
“However, those who were injured by assault and covered by Medicaid or Medicare were less likely to be discharged home from the ED compared to those in the other two insurance groups.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The most common drug found on toxicology assessment was cannabis.
“The most common drug found on toxicology assessment was cannabis.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Missouri firearm injury patients had a median age of 29.0 years.
“these patients were mostly young (median age 29.0) adult males (83.0%).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Only 12.3% of patients received services on discharge from the hospital.
“Only 12.3% of patients received services on discharge from the hospital”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingnone given
A large proportion of firearm injured patients in Missouri are not insured.
“One of the concerns for firearm injured patients in Missouri is that a large proportion of firearm injured patients are not insured, which can result in further barriers to obtaining follow-up care.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Overall 7.7% of the patients died.
“Nearly three-fourths of the injuries were due to assaults, and overall 7.7% died.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Firearm injured patients living in rural areas were somewhat older than those in urban areas.
“Firearm injured patients living in rural areas were somewhat older than those in urban areas (Table 7).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
43.4% of firearm patients treated at these trauma centers were discharged from the hospital alive.
“Overall, 43.4% of firearm patients treated at these trauma centers were discharged from the hospital alive”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
7.7% of patients presenting to trauma centers in Missouri with firearm injuries died in the hospital.
“7.7% of patients presenting to trauma centers in Missouri with firearm injuries died in the hospital”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingnone given
Very few had social work services post-discharge.
“Very few had social work services post-discharge, and even fewer had access to violence prevention programs.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Rural firearm injured patients were much less likely to be Black compared to patients in urban areas (18.4% vs 83.9%).
“They were much less likely to be Black compared to patients in urban areas (18.4% vs 83.9%)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingnone given
The amount of missing data for variables that can be used to guide prevention efforts was large.
“The amount of missing data for variables that can be used to guide prevention efforts was large.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Patients in urban areas were nearly twice as likely to come from the most distressed quintile compared to those living in rural areas.
“Patients in urban areas were nearly twice as likely to come from the most distressed quintile compared to those living in rural areas.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
3.9% of firearm injuries were self-inflicted.
“Self-Inflicted | 52 (3.9%)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Most self-inflicted firearm injuries result in death at the scene.
- Findingown data
11.8% of the total had a prior assault.
“In this study, only 3.8% had a prior arrest although 114 of the total (11.8%) had a prior assault.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Drug testing was not done on 71.8% of patients in Missouri.
“Drug testing was not done on 71.8% of patients in Missouri”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
More of those 65 and older required SNF or other long-term care on discharge from the hospital.
“and more this age required skilled nursing facility (SNF) or other long-term care on discharge from the hospital.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Among patients tested for drugs, only 22% were negative for any drugs.
“but among those tested only 22% were negative for any drugs.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
66 of the 103 fatalities died in the ED.
“with 66 of the 103 fatalities dying in the ED”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Patients living in urban areas were more likely to be uninsured.
“Patients living in urban areas were more likely to be uninsured.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Patients with commercial insurance had the lowest likelihood of receiving any post-discharge services.
“Those with commercial insurance had the lowest likelihood of receiving any post-discharge services.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Few of those 65 and older were discharged from the ED.
“Few of those 65 and older were discharged from the ED”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Missouri firearm injury patients were much less likely to be White (15.0%) than Missouri state residents (82.5%).
“and much less likely to be White (15.0% compared with 82.5% of state residents).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingnone given
Fewer patients in urban areas received any post-discharge services.
“Fewer patients in urban areas received any post-discharge services.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Nearly three-fourths (72.2%) of patients with prior assault injuries had sustained a prior gunshot wound.
“Nearly three-fourths (72.2%) of patients with prior assault injuries had sustained a prior gunshot wound.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Mental illness data was missing in 29.0% of patients.
“but was missing in 29.0%.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Those in the middle age group (20-65) were significantly less likely to receive any services on discharge from the hospital.
“Those in the middle age group were significantly less likely to receive any services on discharge from the hospital.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
72.9% of firearm injuries were due to assaults.
“The majority (72.9%) of firearm injuries were due to assaults”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Lack of insurance can result in further barriers to obtaining follow-up care for firearm injured patients.
“One of the concerns for firearm injured patients in Missouri is that a large proportion of firearm injured patients are not insured, which can result in further barriers to obtaining follow-up care.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Without any interventions after discharge, individuals hospitalized with firearm injuries have a 30-fold greater chance of being re-hospitalized with a firearm injury than those in the general population.
“Without any interventions after discharge, individuals hospitalized with firearm injuries have a 30-fold greater chance of being re-hospitalized with a firearm injury and a 7.3-fold greater chance of dying from a firearm injury than those in the general population [16].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [16] A Rowhani-Rahbar, 2015, Firearm-related hospitalization and risk for subsequent violent injury, death, or crime perpetration: a cohort study, Ann Intern Med source
- Interpretationreasoning
The total number of patients included in this study is an under representation of all the patients treated at participating centers.
“In addition, the total number of patients included in this study is an under representation of all the patients treated at participating centers, as centers started participation at varying times during the study period and may not have contributed 12-months of data.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
More than one-half of survivors of firearm violence develop Post Traumatic Stress Disorder and/or depression.
“More than one-half of survivors of firearm violence develop Post Traumatic Stress Disorder and/or depression [14]”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [14] DC Semenza, 2021, Community gun violence and functional disability: An ecological analysis among men in four U.S. cities., Health Place source
- Premisecitation
Without any interventions after discharge, individuals hospitalized with firearm injuries have a 7.3-fold greater chance of dying from a firearm injury than those in the general population.
“Without any interventions after discharge, individuals hospitalized with firearm injuries have a 30-fold greater chance of being re-hospitalized with a firearm injury and a 7.3-fold greater chance of dying from a firearm injury than those in the general population [16].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [16] A Rowhani-Rahbar, 2015, Firearm-related hospitalization and risk for subsequent violent injury, death, or crime perpetration: a cohort study, Ann Intern Med source
- Premisecitation
90% of firearm suicide attempts result in death.
“First, many patients with firearm injuries die at the scene, especially those who used a firearm to attempt suicide, 90% of which result in death [22].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [22] Z Cai, 2022, The lethality of suicide methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis, J Affect Disord source
- May combine two claims. 20
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 13
- The quote only partly states this claim. 5
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationMedicaid expansion has potential benefits including reduction of suicide rates and improving access to inpatient rehabilitation after acute hospitalization among those injured by firearms.
“While Missouri expanded Medicaid in 2021, the high percentage of firearm injured patients without insurance is of great concern given the potential benefits of Medicaid expansion that include reduction of suicide rates and improving access to inpatient rehabilitation after acute hospitalization among those who are injured by firearms [20, 21].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [20] H Patel, 2022, Association of State Medicaid Expansion Status With Rates of Suicide Among US Adults, JAMA Netw Open source
- cites [21] MR Ross, 2022, Impact of Medicaid expansion on young adult firearm and motor vehicle crash trauma patients., Surg Open Sci source
The Results section (page not provided) reports that Medicaid expansion was associated with increased discharge to inpatient rehabilitation among young adult firearm trauma patients. It does not report a reduction in suicide rates; its mortality finding concerns deaths in hospital among firearm trauma patients, which is a different outcome. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationPrior studies indicate that verified and/or designated trauma centers care for approximately 70% of medically treated firearm injuries in the U.S.
“Prior studies indicate that verified and/or designated trauma centers care for approximately 70% of medically treated firearm injuries in the U.S [5].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [5] E Coupet, 2019, US Emergency Department Encounters for Firearm Injuries According to Presentation at Trauma vs Nontrauma Centers., JAMA Surg source
The Results (p. not available) report that 309,930 of 445,915 US emergency-department encounters for firearm injury (69.5%) were treated at trauma centers. The Methods (p. not available) define these as level I–III trauma centers, but the paper does not establish their verification or designation status, and its estimate covers ED encounters rather than all medically treated firearm injuries. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationApproximately 89% of firearm assaults and unintentional shootings are non-lethal, while only about 10% of suicide attempts are non-lethal.
“Given the large proportion of firearm injuries that are non-lethal (approximately 89% of firearm assaults and unintentional shootings, although only about 10% of suicide attempts) [4]”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [4] SA Spitzer, 2020, Incidence, Distribution, and Lethality of Firearm Injuries in California From 2005 to 2015., JAMA network open source
The Results > CFRs section (page unavailable) reports that the case fatality ratio for self-inflicted firearm injuries remained above 90%, supporting the claim that fewer than about 10% were nonfatal. But it reports fatality ratios of 23.3%–26.6% for assaults and 1.1%–5.3% for unintentional injuries; it does not support an approximately 89% nonfatal proportion for those categories. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Findingnone givenFew patients received post-discharge services.
“Few patients received post-discharge services.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimThe quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataAmong self-inflicted injuries with context data, 45.2% were associated with a personal crisis.
“Personal Crisis | 14 (45.2%)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimThe quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataAbout 1 in 6 (16.2%) patients was intoxicated at the time of ED assessment.
“About 1 in 6 patients was intoxicated at the time of the emergency department (ED) assessment.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataPatients with firearm injuries in Missouri lived in communities with much higher DCI scores and were much more likely to live in the most distressed communities (69.4% vs 24.6%) compared to the state as a whole.
“Patients with firearm injuries in Missouri lived in communities with much higher DCI scores and were much more likely to live in the most distressed communities (69.4% vs 24.6%) compared to the state as a whole (Table 6).”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · boosted
“A striking finding is the much higher levels of distress in communities in which individuals are experiencing firearm injuries compared to residents of the state as a whole.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Also stated in: § Discussion · boosted
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn this analysis of 1336 patients with Missouri residential zip codes treated at 11 trauma centers in Missouri, patients were mostly male and much more likely to be Black and uninsured than residents in the state as a whole.
“In this analysis of 1336 patients with Missouri residential zip codes treated at 11 trauma centers in Missouri, patients were mostly male and much more likely to be Black and uninsured than residents in the state as a whole.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataData were collected on 17,395 patients, of whom 1,336 (7.7%) were treated at one of the 11 participating trauma centers in Missouri during the 12-month study period.
“Data were collected on 17,395 patients of whom 1,336 (7.7%) were treated at one of the 11 participating trauma centers in Missouri.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataOf 165 provisionally enrolled trauma centers, 128 ultimately contributed data, of which 11 were in Missouri.
“We recruited volunteer participation from the entire TQIP sample and provisionally enrolled 165 trauma centers to participate in this program; 128 ultimately contributed data, of which 11 were in Missouri.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataMore than half (53.1%) of Missouri firearm injury patients were uninsured, compared to 9.3% of Missouri state residents.
“More than half of the patients in Missouri were recorded as being uninsured, compared to 9.3% in the state as a whole.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataPatients who sustained firearm injuries from assault had the highest mean DCI and were most likely to live in the most distressed communities.
“Patients who sustained firearm injuries from assault had the highest mean DCI and were most likely to live in the most distressed communities.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimThe quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataAmong assault injuries with context data, interpersonal and random violence were also common.
“Shootings related to interpersonal and random violence were also common.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThree-quarters of patients in urban areas were injured in assaults compared with less than half in rural areas.
“Three-quarters of patients in urban areas were injured in assaults compared with less than half in rural areas.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataInjuries occurred in a variety of settings, most commonly in homes, streets, motor vehicles and commercial areas.
“The injuries occurred in a variety of settings, most commonly in homes, streets, motor vehicles and commercial areas.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningThe extra time required of trauma personnel to locate and extract the additional data may have limited their ability to do so.
“Additionally, the extra time required of trauma personnel to locate and extract the additional data may have limited their ability to do so, notably during the data collection period when trauma centers reported an increase in trauma volume as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationMechanisms to capture these data have been developed through the CDC National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) but are limited to injuries that result in death.
“For this reason, mechanisms to capture these data have been developed through the CDC National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) but are limited to injuries that result in death [3].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [3] National Violent Death Reporting System. 2023 [cited 2023]. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/datasources/nvdrs/index.html.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenThe study was approved by an IRB, and consent for the registry to abstract data from the medical record was waived.
“The study was approved by Advarr CIRBITM. Consent for the registry to abstract data from the medical record was waived by the IRB.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationOther studies have found half of firearm injured patients had an arrest in the prior 2 years.
“other studies which have found half of firearm injured patients had an arrest in the prior 2 years [12].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [12] BM Mills, 2018, Prior arrest, substance use, mental disorder, and intent-specific firearm injury., AM J Prev Med source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenCenters started participation at varying times during the study period and may not have contributed 12-months of data.
“Centers started participation at varying times during the study period and may not have contributed 12-months of data.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
InterpretationreasoningThe missing data was not a failure of chart abstraction by the coders but lack of collection and documentation of this data by health care providers.
“We do not think this was a failure of chart abstraction by the coders but lack of collection and documentation of this data by health care providers.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationIn 2020, Missouri had the 4th highest firearm mortality rate in the country at 23.75/100,000 population compared to 13.58/100,000 for the US as a whole.
“In 2020, Missouri had the 4th highest firearm mortality rate in the country at 23.75/100,000 population compared to 13.58/100,000 for the US as a whole”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [1] National Center for Health Statistics. National Vital Statistics System, Provisional Mortality on CDC WONDER Online Database., 2023
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationMany patients with firearm injuries die at the scene, especially those who used a firearm to attempt suicide.
“First, many patients with firearm injuries die at the scene, especially those who used a firearm to attempt suicide, 90% of which result in death [22].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [22] Z Cai, 2022, The lethality of suicide methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis, J Affect Disord source
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe limitation of NVDRS to fatal injuries has the potential to significantly bias understanding of risk factors and circumstances surrounding firearm injury events, therefore limiting understanding of potential interventions to prevent re-injury or death.
“this is a significant limitation and has the potential to significantly bias our understanding of risk factors and the circumstances surrounding the firearm injury event, therefore limiting our understanding of potential interventions to prevent re-injury or death.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningThe data missingness may represent inadequate resources, training and practices of the entire healthcare team.
“the data missingness may represent inadequate resources, training and practices of the entire healthcare team, all of whom gather medical and social histories and document in the EHR.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationThe DCI is a validated index of prosperity that includes variables related to education, housing, unemployment, poverty, and changes in business establishments.
“The DCI is a validated index of prosperity that includes variables related to education, housing, unemployment, poverty, and changes in business establishments [8].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [8] Distressed Coimmunities: Methodology. 2022. Available from: https://eig.org/distressed-communities/2022-dci-methodology.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Interpretationown dataThe difference in prior arrest rate may be due to the large amount of missing data in our study for prior assaults and prior arrests.
“This difference may be due to the large amount of missing data in our study for prior assaults and prior arrests.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe amount of time required to extract data was significant and may have been difficult for centers.
“The amount of time required to extract data was significant and may have been difficult for centers especially since it occurred when hospitals may have been very busy with patients during the pandemic and no additional funding was available to support this data collection at the center level.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationAs of 2020, the rate of firearm deaths in Missouri had risen 70% over the prior 10 years compared to 33% across the country.
“As of 2020, the rate of firearm deaths in Missouri had risen 70% over the prior 10 years compared to 33% across the country [1].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [1] National Center for Health Statistics. National Vital Statistics System, Provisional Mortality on CDC WONDER Online Database., 2023
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe number of non-fatal firearm injuries and the characteristics of patients and injuries is not well known.
“However, the number of non-fatal firearm injuries and the characteristics of patients and injuries is not well known, as documented by a recent report from NORC at the University of Chicago [2].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [2] NORC, 2020
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningIndividuals and characteristics unique to patients who experience firearm suicide are largely missing from these data, reflected in that only 4.3% of the patients in this study had self-inflicted injuries.
“These individuals and characteristics unique to the patients that experience firearm suicide are thus largely missing from these data, reflected in that only 4.3% of the patients in this study had self-inflicted injuries.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
The paper relies on this without support.
The ACS TQIP captures an estimated 90%-95% of all level 1 and 2 trauma centers and a less comprehensive sample of level 3 trauma centers.
“The ACS Trauma Quality Improvement Program (TQIP) collects data for the purposes of performance benchmarking from over 700 centers, representing more than 800 distinct trauma programs, across the U.S., capturing an estimated 90%-95% of all level 1 and 2 (major trauma centers) and a less comprehensive sample of level 3 trauma centers.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Prior to this initiative, the ACS TQIP only collected data on people with firearm injuries who met criteria for inclusion; patients assessed in the emergency department and discharged home were not routinely captured.
“Notably, prior to this initiative, the ACS TQIP only collected data on people with firearm injuries who met these criteria; patients assessed in the emergency department and discharged home were not routinely captured.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Most self-inflicted firearm injuries result in death at the scene.
“The majority (72.9%) of firearm injuries were due to assaults with few due to self-inflicted injuries, since most such firearm injuries result in death at the scene.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Table 4 percentages for no discharge services use all patients instead of survivors
MinorThis section is labeled as covering those discharged alive. Among the 214 pediatric survivors, 146 receiving no services is 68.2%, not 64.6%; the adult and older-adult entries in the same row likewise use their full age-group totals rather than survivor totals.
Reported 64.6 · recomputed 68.224299
“| None | 146 (64.6%) | 903 (83.5%) | 17 (60.7%) | <0.001 |”
Discussion misstates the count of patients with a prior assault
MinorThe discussion calls 114 patients 11.8% of the total, but 114 of 1,336 is 8.5%. Table 2 identifies 158 patients (11.8%) with any previous violent assault or injury; 114 is the count with a prior gunshot wound.
Reported 11.8 · recomputed 8.532934
“In this study, only 3.8% had a prior arrest although 114 of the total (11.8%) had a prior assault.”
Opioid-positive percentage is understated
MinorFour patients out of 1,336 is 0.3%, not 0.1%.
Reported 0.1 · recomputed 0.299401
“| Opioids | 4 (0.1%) |”
Table 5 gives the wrong survivor total for the government-insured assault group
MinorThe group's discharge-service categories contain 228 with no care, 69 with care, and one missing, totaling 298-not the stated N = 289. The mortality row also lists 298 survivors for this group.
Reported 289 · recomputed 298
“| Number of Discharge Services (among surviving) | N = 289 | N = 47 | | N = 130 | N = 36 | | N = 479 | N = 61 | |”
Cites
Zatzick, D., Jurkovich, G., Rivara, F. P., Russo, J., Wagner, A., Wang, J., Dunn, C., Lord, S. P., Petrie, M., O'Connor, S. S., et al. (2013) · Annals of Surgery · doi:10.1097/sla.0b013e31826bc313 · Cited by 229 · see citing works
Self-citationThe lethality of suicide methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Cai, Z., Junus, A., Chang, Q., & Yip, P. S. F. (2022) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2021.12.054 · Cited by 155 · see citing works
Rowhani-Rahbar, A., Zatzick, D., Wang, J., Mills, B. M., Simonetti, J. A., Fan, M. D., & Rivara, F. P. (2015) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/m14-2362 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
Self-citationAffinati, S., Patton, D., Hansen, L., Ranney, M., Christmas, A. B., Violano, P., Sodhi, A., Robinson, B., Crandall, M., & from the Eastern Association for the Surgery of Trauma Injury Control and Violence Prevention Section and Guidelines Section (2016) · Trauma Surgery & Acute Care Open · doi:10.1136/tsaco-2016-000024 · Cited by 100 · see citing works
The National Violent Death Reporting System
Crosby, A. E., Mercy, J. A., & Houry, D. (2016) · American Journal of Preventive Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2016.07.022 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Dicker, R. A., Thomas, A., Bulger, E. M., Stewart, R. M., Bonne, S. L., Dechert, T. A., Smith, R. N., Love-Craighead, A., Dreier, F. L., Kotagal, M., et al. (2021) · Journal of the American College of Surgeons · doi:10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2021.06.016 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Webster, D. W., Richardson, J., Meyerson, N., Vil, C., & Topazian, R. (2022) · The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science · doi:10.1177/00027162231173323 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Wong, B., Bernstein, S., Jay, J., & Siegel, M. (2020) · Journal of the National Medical Association · doi:10.1016/j.jnma.2020.05.014 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Measuring Structural Racism and Its Association with Racial Disparities in Firearm Homicide
Siegel, M., Rieders, M., Rieders, H., Moumneh, J., Asfour, J., Oh, J., & Oh, S. (2023) · Journal of Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities · doi:10.1007/s40615-022-01485-2 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Semenza, D. C., & Stansfield, R. (2021) · Health & Place · doi:10.1016/j.healthplace.2021.102625 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Coupet, E., Huang, Y., & Delgado, M. K. (2019) · JAMA Surgery · doi:10.1001/jamasurg.2018.4640 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Incidence, Distribution, and Lethality of Firearm Injuries in California From 2005 to 2015.
Spitzer, S. A., Pear, V. A., McCort, C. D., & Wintemute, G. J. (2020) · JAMA Network Open · doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.14736 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Association of State Medicaid Expansion Status With Rates of Suicide Among US Adults
Patel, H., Barnes, J., Osazuwa-Peters, N., & Bierut, L. J. (2022) · JAMA Network Open · doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.17228 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Siegel, M., & Wiklund, E. (2023) · Journal of the National Medical Association · doi:10.1016/j.jnma.2023.01.010 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Comprehensive Framework of Firearm Violence Survivor Care: A Review.
Timmer-Murillo, S., Schroeder, M. E., Trevino, C., Geier, T. J., Schramm, A. T., Brandolino, A. M., Hargarten, S., Holena, D., de Moya, M. D., Milia, D. J., et al. (2023) · JAMA Surgery · doi:10.1001/jamasurg.2022.8149 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Prior arrest, substance use, mental disorder, and intent-specific firearm injury.
Mills, B. M., Nurius, P. S., Matsueda, R. L., Rivara, F. P., & Rowhani-Rahbar, A. (2018) · American Journal of Preventive Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2018.04.041 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Self-citationImpact of Medicaid expansion on young adult firearm and motor vehicle crash trauma patients.
Ross, M. R., Hurst, P. M., Asti, L., & Cooper, J. N. (2022) · Surgery Open Science · doi:10.1016/j.sopen.2022.01.004 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- National Center for Health Statistics. National Vital Statistics System, Provisional Mortality on CDC WONDER Online Database., 2023, Data are from the final Multiple Cause of Death Files, 2018–2021, and from provisional data for years 2022–2023, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program.
- NORC, 2020, Firsat Report of the Expert Panel on Firearms Data Infrastructure. The State of Firearms Data in 2019.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Villa, B., Farach, S. M., Velanovich, V., Penny, P., Coughlin, E. C., Henning, J., Lorch, S. M., Herron, T., Mhaskar, R. S., & Diaz, J. J. (2025) · Journal of the American College of Surgeons · doi:10.1097/xcs.0000000000001295 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Kim, S., Talluri, R., Yu, A., et al. (2025) · BMC Pediatrics · doi:10.1186/s12887-025-06340-x · Cited by 1 · see citing works
“Previous investigations of Missouri-specific mortality rates establish this trend [11].”
InfluentialRashid, M. H. O. (2026) · Cogent Social Sciences · doi:10.1080/23311886.2026.2682113
- Authors
- Rivara, F. P., Hink, A. B., Kuhls, D., Banks, S., Agoubi, L. L., Kirkendoll, S., Winchester, A., Hoeft, C., Patel, B., & Nathens, A.
- Affiliations
- University of Washington (US)
- Medical University of South Carolina (US)
- University of Nevada, Las Vegas (US)
- Northwestern University (US)
- American College of Surgeons (US)
- Sunnybrook Health Science Centre (CA)
- Corresponding author
- Rivara, Frederick P.
- ORCID
- Venue
- PLOS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2023-11-22
- Volume
- 18
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- e0294737
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC10664957
- OpenAlex
- W4388894665
- Cited by
- 3
- References
- 17
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2
- FWCI
- 0.77
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Health › Gun Ownership and Violence Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Emergency Medicine › Trauma and Emergency Care Studies
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Homicide, Infanticide, and Child Abuse
- Keywords
- firearm injuries, firearm deaths, gun violence, trauma centers, emergency department visits, assault injuries, racial disparities, uninsured patients, Missouri
- MeSH terms
- Aftercare, Cross-Sectional Studies, Female, Firearms, Humans, Male, Missouri, Patient Discharge, Violence, Wounds, Gunshot
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-27.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-27.
Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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