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Projection of Diabetes Burden Through 2050
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVE: To project the number of people with diagnosed diabetes in the U.S. through 2050, accounting for changing demography and diabetes prevalence rates. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We combined age-, sex-, and race-specific diagnosed diabetes prevalence rates-predicted from 1980-1998 trends in prevalence data from the National Health Interview Survey-with Bureau of Census population demographic projections. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying both prevalence rate and population projections. RESULTS: The number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes is projected to increase 165%, from 11 million in 2000 (prevalence of 4.0%) to 29 million in 2050 (prevalence of 7.2%). The largest percent increase in diagnosed diabetes will be among those aged > or =75 years (+271% in women and +437% in men). The fastest growing ethnic group with diagnosed diabetes is expected to be black males (+363% from 2000-2050), with black females (+217%), white males (+148%), and white females (+107%) following. Of the projected 18 million increase in the number of cases of diabetes in 2050, 37% are due to changes in demographic composition, 27% are due to population growth, and 36% are due to increasing prevalence rates. CONCLUSIONS: If recent trends in diabetes prevalence rates continue linearly over the next 50 years, future changes in the size and demographic characteristics of the U.S. population will lead to dramatic increases in the number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes.
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“The rates of type 2 diabetes and insulin resistance are significantly greater in the elderly population compared to young adults,91, 92 leading to greater risk for cardiovascular events.”
From Hormonal and Metabolic Changes of Aging and the Influence of Lifestyle Modifications (2021) · cites this paper as [92]
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“Indeed, by 2050, almost 90% of people in the United States are projected to be overweight or obese (3), and one in three are expected to have T2D (4).”
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Beard, H. A., AlGhatrif, M., Samper‐Ternent, R., Gerst, K., & Markides, K. S. (2009) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dc09-0938 · Cited by 75
“As diabetes is projected to become more prevalent in older adults in the future (2), physicians need to be trained in early detection of diabetes among older adults and should encourage appropriate management in patients aged 75 years, including glycemic control and healthier lifestyles and adequate pharmacological tr…”
Eakin, E., Reeves, M. M., Marshall, A. L., Dunstan, D. W., Graves, N., Healy, G. N., Bleier, J., Barnett, A. G., O'Moore‐Sullivan, T. M., Russell, A. W., et al. (2010) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/1471-2458-10-452 · Cited by 76
Creating Public Awareness: State 2025 Diabetes Forecasts
Rowley, W. R., & Bezold, C. (2012) · Population Health Management · doi:10.1089/pop.2011.0053 · Cited by 81
“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Research Triangle Institute developed a robust Dynamic Markov Model for projecting the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes from 2000 to 2050 that was published by Boyle in 2001.(3) Because of the rapid acceleration of diabetes in the early 21 century, prevalence ra…”
BackgroundEndris, T., Worede, A., & Asmelash, D. (2019) · Diabetes Metabolic Syndrome and Obesity · doi:10.2147/dmso.s225854 · Cited by 78
“Comorbidities of DM lead to a substantial decrease in the patients' quality of life as well as socioeconomic consequences.(7) Diabetes-related complications are the major cause of premature deaths and disability in the world, which is 2–4 times more prevalent in patients with DM than in the general population.”
BackgroundEvaluation of a Care Coordination/Home-Telehealth Program for Veterans with Diabetes
Chumbler, N. R., Neugaard, B. I., Kobb, R. F., Ryan, P., Qin, H., & Joo, Y. (2005) · Evaluation & the Health Professions · doi:10.1177/0163278705281079 · Cited by 74
“Because of primarily the aging of the U.S. population and the increase in obesity rates, the number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes is expected to increase 165%, from 11 million in 2000 to 29 million in 2050 (Boyle et al., 2001).”
BackgroundHyperglycemia and diabetes have different impacts on outcome of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke
Snarska, K. K., Bachórzewska-Gajewska, H., Kapica-Topczewska, K., Drozdowski, W., Chorąży, M., Kułakowska, A., & Małyszko, J. (2016) · Archives of Medical Science · doi:10.5114/aoms.2016.61009 · Cited by 74
Ozougwu, O., & Jevas, C. (2011) · Journal of Medicinal Plants Research · doi:10.5897/jmpr.9000094 · Cited by 74
Using Metabolic Syndrome Traits for Efficient Detection of Impaired Glucose Tolerance
Meigs, J. B., Williams, K., SULLIVAN, L. M., Hunt, K. J., Haffner, S. M., D, M. P. S. M., Villalpando, C. G., Perhanidis, J. A., Nathan, D. M., D’Agostino, R. B., et al. (2004) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/diacare.27.6.1417 · Cited by 74
on Behalf of the Taskforce Team of Diabetes Fact Sheet of the Korean Diabetes Association, Jung, C. H., Chung, J. O., Han, K., Ko, S.-H., Ko, K. S., & Park, J.-Y. (2017) · Cardiovascular Diabetology · doi:10.1186/s12933-016-0482-6 · Cited by 74
“It has been estimated that the number of people in the United States with diagnosed diabetes will increase by 165% from 2000 to 2050, from 11 million to 29 million [2].”
BackgroundMarquina, C., Talic, S., Vargas-Torres, S. L., Petrova, M., Abushanab, D., Owen, A. J., Lybrand, S., Thomson, D., Liew, D., Zomer, E., et al. (2021) · European Journal of Preventive Cardiology · doi:10.1093/eurjpc/zwab001 · Cited by 73
Diabetes Mellitus Is an Independent Risk Factor for Colorectal Cancer
Sun, L., & Yu, S. (2012) · Digestive Diseases and Sciences · doi:10.1007/s10620-012-2059-x · Cited by 72
“Diabetes is becoming increasingly common in many countries [2, 3].”
BackgroundCurrent status of clinical islet transplantation
Pepper, A. R., Gala-López, B., Ziff, O. J., & Shapiro, A. J. (2013) · World Journal of Transplantation · doi:10.5500/wjt.v3.i4.48 · Cited by 78
Fortmann, A. L., Gallo, L. C., & Philis‐Tsimikas, A. (2011) · Health Psychology · doi:10.1037/a0022850 · Cited by 86
“…support resources, diabetes self-management, HbA1c, depression, diabetes Approximately 29 million, or 7.2% of individuals in the United States are expected to have a diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes by the year 2050, an increase of nearly 165% from the year 2000 (Boyle et al., 2001).”
BackgroundInfluentialBabujanarthanam, R., Kavitha, P., & Pandian, M. R. (2009) · Fundamental and Clinical Pharmacology · doi:10.1111/j.1472-8206.2009.00771.x · Cited by 71
Situating Stress: Lessons from Lay Discourses on Diabetes
Schoenberg, N. E., Drew, E. M., Stoller, E. P., & Kart, C. S. (2005) · Medical Anthropology Quarterly · doi:10.1525/maq.2005.19.2.171 · Cited by 70
Update on diabetes in the elderly and in nursing home residents
Migdal, A., Yarandi, S. S., Smiley, D., & Umpierrez, G. E. (2011) · Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · doi:10.1016/j.jamda.2011.02.010 · Cited by 81
Is Relative Mortality of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Decreasing?
Gulliford, M. C., & Charlton, J. (2008) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwn342 · Cited by 69
Epidemiology of cardiovascular complications in type 2 diabetes mellitus
Meigs, J. B. (2003) · Acta Diabetologica · doi:10.1007/s00592-003-0120-0 · Cited by 69
Antihypertensive drug use and the risk of dementia in patients with diabetes mellitus
Johnson, M. L., Parikh, N. M., Kunik, M. E., Schulz, P. E., Patel, J. G., Chen, H., Aparasu, R. R., & Morgan, R. O. (2012) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2011.05.2414 · Cited by 72
“2414 States by the year 2050 [4].”
Advances in the Understanding and Treatment of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease
Harrison, S. A., & Bisceglie, A. M. D. (2003) · Drugs · doi:10.2165/00003495-200363220-00001 · Cited by 69
Metadata
- Authors
- Boyle, J. P., Honeycutt, A. A., Narayan, K. M. V., Hoerger, T. J., Geiss, L. S., Chen, H., & Thompson, T. J.
- Affiliations
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
- RTI International (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Diabetes Care
- Publisher
- American Diabetes Association
- Published
- 2001-11-01
- Volume
- 24
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1936-1940
- ISSN
- 0149-5992 (ISSN-L)
- 1935-5548
- OpenAlex
- W2060151575
- Cited by
- 1,004
- References
- 14
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 28 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 30 · 2016: 50 · 2015: 30 · 2014: 46 · 2013: 50 · 2012: 59
- FWCI
- 29.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Diabetes Care (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Diabetes and associated disorders
- Keywords
- diabetes prevalence, population projections, age-specific prevalence, racial and ethnic disparities, older adults, Black men, population growth, diabetes epidemiology, United States
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Black or African American, Child, Demography, Diabetes Mellitus, Ethnicity, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Sex Factors, United States, Prevalence, Cost of Illness, Age Distribution, White People, Racial Groups
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