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Projection of Diabetes Burden Through 2050
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVE: To project the number of people with diagnosed diabetes in the U.S. through 2050, accounting for changing demography and diabetes prevalence rates. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We combined age-, sex-, and race-specific diagnosed diabetes prevalence rates-predicted from 1980-1998 trends in prevalence data from the National Health Interview Survey-with Bureau of Census population demographic projections. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying both prevalence rate and population projections. RESULTS: The number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes is projected to increase 165%, from 11 million in 2000 (prevalence of 4.0%) to 29 million in 2050 (prevalence of 7.2%). The largest percent increase in diagnosed diabetes will be among those aged > or =75 years (+271% in women and +437% in men). The fastest growing ethnic group with diagnosed diabetes is expected to be black males (+363% from 2000-2050), with black females (+217%), white males (+148%), and white females (+107%) following. Of the projected 18 million increase in the number of cases of diabetes in 2050, 37% are due to changes in demographic composition, 27% are due to population growth, and 36% are due to increasing prevalence rates. CONCLUSIONS: If recent trends in diabetes prevalence rates continue linearly over the next 50 years, future changes in the size and demographic characteristics of the U.S. population will lead to dramatic increases in the number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes.
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“The rates of type 2 diabetes and insulin resistance are significantly greater in the elderly population compared to young adults,91, 92 leading to greater risk for cardiovascular events.”
From Hormonal and Metabolic Changes of Aging and the Influence of Lifestyle Modifications (2021) · cites this paper as [92]
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D’Anneo, A., Rood, P. P. M., Bottino, R., Balamurugan, A. N., He, J., & Giannoukakis, N. (2006) · Immunologic Research · doi:10.1385/ir:36:1:83 · Cited by 11
Zgibor, J. C., Kuo, S., Emerson, S., Gittinger, P., Solano, F. X., Tilves, D., Maloney, M., & Davidson, M. B. (2014) · Contemporary Clinical Trials · doi:10.1016/j.cct.2014.07.004 · Cited by 10
The interplay of age, period, and cohort effects on obesity and metabolic diseases in later life
Kelley, J. A., & Thorpe, R. J. (2021) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-815970-5.00011-5 · Cited by 10
Idrees, T., Zabala, Z. E., Moreno, E. M., Gerges, A., Urrutia, M. A., Ruíz, J. G., Vaughan, C. P., Vellanki, P., Pasquel, F. J., Peng, L., et al. (2023) · Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice · doi:10.1016/j.diabres.2023.110603 · Cited by 9
Diabetes and the Frail Elderly in Long-term Care
CLEMENT, M. A., & Leung, F. (2009) · Canadian Journal of Diabetes · doi:10.1016/s1499-2671(09)32008-0 · Cited by 10
Sharma, A., Deyell, J., Sharma, S. N., & Barseghian, A. (2019) · Current Cardiology Reports · doi:10.1007/s11886-019-1168-y · Cited by 10
Evans, V., Koh, R. G. L., Duarte, F. C. K., Linde, L. D., Amiri, M., & Kumbhare, D. A. (2021) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-021-93188-7 · Cited by 10
Perspectives of "Ubiquitous Health Care System" for Diabetes Management
Cho, J., Kwon, H., & Yoon, K. (2006) · The Journal of Korean Diabetes Association · doi:10.4093/jkda.2006.30.2.87 · Cited by 10
Tweden, K. S., Herrera, M. F., Toouli, J., Kulseng, B. E., Brancatisano, R., Kow, L., Pantoja, J. P., Johnsen, G., Brancatisano, A., Waataja, J. J., et al. (2016) · Journal of Diabetes and Obesity · doi:10.15436/2376-0494.17.1250 · Cited by 10
Rhee, M. K., Safo, S. E., Jackson, S. L., Xue, W., Olson, D. E., Long, Q., Barb, D., HAW, J. S., Tomolo, A. M., & Phillips, L. S. (2017) · The American Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.amjmed.2017.09.021 · Cited by 10
Nwankwo, M., Okamkpa, C. J., & Danborno, B. (2018) · Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome Clinical Research & Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.dsx.2018.11.065 · Cited by 10
Population attributable risk of risk factors for type 2 diabetes; Bayesian methods
Fallahzadeh, H., Ostovarfar, M., & Lotfi, M. H. (2019) · Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome Clinical Research & Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.dsx.2019.01.015 · Cited by 10
What Is Public Health Practice Telling Us about Diabetes?
Albright, A. L. (2008) · Journal of the American Dietetic Association · doi:10.1016/j.jada.2008.01.023 · Cited by 10
Bernet, V. J. (2004) · Endocrine Practice · doi:10.4158/ep.10.4.339 · Cited by 10
Anselmino, M., Malmberg, K., Mellbin, L., & Rydén, L. (2010) · Reviews in Endocrine and Metabolic Disorders · doi:10.1007/s11154-010-9136-2 · Cited by 10
“Worldwide prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) in the adult population is increasing from 4.0% in 1995 [1 ]t o over 7% by the year 2050 [ 2 ].”
BackgroundInfluentialPersistence of Smoking-Cessation Decision Support Use in a Dental Practice
Kottke, T. E., Rindal, D. B., Rush, W. A., Asche, S. E., & Enstad, C. J. (2015) · American Journal of Preventive Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2014.12.017 · Cited by 10
Assessing postprandial glucose using 1,5‐anhydroglucitol: An integrative literature review
Christensen, B. L., & Williams, M. (2009) · Journal of the American Academy of Nurse Practitioners · doi:10.1111/j.1745-7599.2009.00443.x · Cited by 10
“Boyle et al. (2001) predict that by the year 2030, diabetes will affect 29 million people in the United States.”
BackgroundRace, ethnicity, and use of thiazolidinediones among US adults with diabetes
Aquilante, C. L., Zhang, W., & McCollum, M. (2007) · Current Medical Research and Opinion · doi:10.1185/030079906x167354 · Cited by 10
Hussain, S., Taylor, M., Waltermaurer, E., McCauley, J., Ford, D. E., Campbell, J. C., & McNutt, L. (2007) · PubMed Central · Cited by 9
Bhargava, A., Chan, V., Kimball, E. S., & Oyer, D. S. (2016) · Drugs & Aging · doi:10.1007/s40266-016-0342-9 · Cited by 10
“The population of older adults with diabetes is expected to increase due to the rise in obesity, changing lifestyle, and the increase in the overall life expectancy of the United States (US) population [8].”
BackgroundEmployee Perceptions of Diabetes Education Needs: A Focus Group Study
Wood, F. G., & Jacobson, S. F. (2005) · AAOHN Journal · doi:10.1177/216507990505301005 · Cited by 10
“The number of Black individuals diagnosed with diabetes is expected to increase by more than 200% by 2050 (Boyle et al., 2001).”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Boyle, J. P., Honeycutt, A. A., Narayan, K. M. V., Hoerger, T. J., Geiss, L. S., Chen, H., & Thompson, T. J.
- Affiliations
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
- RTI International (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Diabetes Care
- Publisher
- American Diabetes Association
- Published
- 2001-11-01
- Volume
- 24
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1936-1940
- ISSN
- 0149-5992 (ISSN-L)
- 1935-5548
- OpenAlex
- W2060151575
- Cited by
- 1,004
- References
- 14
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 28 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 30 · 2016: 50 · 2015: 30 · 2014: 46 · 2013: 50 · 2012: 59
- FWCI
- 29.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Diabetes Care (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Diabetes and associated disorders
- Keywords
- diabetes prevalence, population projections, age-specific prevalence, racial and ethnic disparities, older adults, Black men, population growth, diabetes epidemiology, United States
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Black or African American, Child, Demography, Diabetes Mellitus, Ethnicity, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Sex Factors, United States, Prevalence, Cost of Illness, Age Distribution, White People, Racial Groups
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