Cited by 1,004Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and LipoproteinsDiabetes Management and ResearchDiabetes and associated disorders

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Projection of Diabetes Burden Through 2050

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Boyle, James P., Honeycutt, Amanda A., Narayan, K.M. Venkat, Hoerger, Thomas J., Geiss, Linda S., Chen, Hong, Thompson, Theodore J.·2001·Diabetes Care

DOI 10.2337/diacare.24.11.1936

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Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To project the number of people with diagnosed diabetes in the U.S. through 2050, accounting for changing demography and diabetes prevalence rates. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We combined age-, sex-, and race-specific diagnosed diabetes prevalence rates-predicted from 1980-1998 trends in prevalence data from the National Health Interview Survey-with Bureau of Census population demographic projections. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying both prevalence rate and population projections. RESULTS: The number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes is projected to increase 165%, from 11 million in 2000 (prevalence of 4.0%) to 29 million in 2050 (prevalence of 7.2%). The largest percent increase in diagnosed diabetes will be among those aged > or =75 years (+271% in women and +437% in men). The fastest growing ethnic group with diagnosed diabetes is expected to be black males (+363% from 2000-2050), with black females (+217%), white males (+148%), and white females (+107%) following. Of the projected 18 million increase in the number of cases of diabetes in 2050, 37% are due to changes in demographic composition, 27% are due to population growth, and 36% are due to increasing prevalence rates. CONCLUSIONS: If recent trends in diabetes prevalence rates continue linearly over the next 50 years, future changes in the size and demographic characteristics of the U.S. population will lead to dramatic increases in the number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes.

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“Furthermore, it is indicated that by 2030, the majority of cases will come from India, China, and the United States [4].”
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“%) in 2018 [1], and rates are expected to increase further primarily due to an aging population, changing racial/ethnic diversity, as well as changes in obesity rates and lifestyle factors [2].”
Background
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“In 2013, more than 30 billion dollars from Medicare expenditure were spent on management of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), 14 billion of which were due to DKD [6] [7] [8].”
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“In the United States alone we expect to see a 165% increase in persons with diabetes by 2050.(2) Diabetes and subsequent comorbid chronic disease that occurs from poor glycemic control is expanding global health care costs exponentially.”
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Authors: Boyle, J. P., Honeycutt, A. A., Narayan, K. M. V., Hoerger, T. J., Geiss, L. S., Chen, H., & Thompson, T. J.
Affiliations: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
RTI International (US)
ORCID: Honeycutt, Amanda A.
Narayan, K.M. Venkat
Hoerger, Thomas J.
Geiss, Linda S.
Chen, Hong
Thompson, Theodore J.
Venue: Diabetes Care
Publisher: American Diabetes Association
Published: 2001-11-01
Volume: 24
Issue: 11
Pages: 1936-1940
ISSN: 0149-5992 (ISSN-L)
1935-5548
DOI: 10.2337/diacare.24.11.1936
OpenAlex: W2060151575
Cited by: 1,004
References: 14
Citations by year: 2026: 8 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 28 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 30 · 2016: 50 · 2015: 30 · 2014: 46 · 2013: 50 · 2012: 59
FWCI: 29.64
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Locations: Diabetes Care (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Diabetes and associated disorders
Keywords: diabetes prevalence, population projections, age-specific prevalence, racial and ethnic disparities, older adults, Black men, population growth, diabetes epidemiology, United States
MeSH terms: Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Black or African American, Child, Demography, Diabetes Mellitus, Ethnicity, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Sex Factors, United States, Prevalence, Cost of Illness, Age Distribution, White People, Racial Groups

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Projection of Diabetes Burden Through 2050

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