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Projection of Diabetes Burden Through 2050
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVE: To project the number of people with diagnosed diabetes in the U.S. through 2050, accounting for changing demography and diabetes prevalence rates. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We combined age-, sex-, and race-specific diagnosed diabetes prevalence rates-predicted from 1980-1998 trends in prevalence data from the National Health Interview Survey-with Bureau of Census population demographic projections. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying both prevalence rate and population projections. RESULTS: The number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes is projected to increase 165%, from 11 million in 2000 (prevalence of 4.0%) to 29 million in 2050 (prevalence of 7.2%). The largest percent increase in diagnosed diabetes will be among those aged > or =75 years (+271% in women and +437% in men). The fastest growing ethnic group with diagnosed diabetes is expected to be black males (+363% from 2000-2050), with black females (+217%), white males (+148%), and white females (+107%) following. Of the projected 18 million increase in the number of cases of diabetes in 2050, 37% are due to changes in demographic composition, 27% are due to population growth, and 36% are due to increasing prevalence rates. CONCLUSIONS: If recent trends in diabetes prevalence rates continue linearly over the next 50 years, future changes in the size and demographic characteristics of the U.S. population will lead to dramatic increases in the number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes.
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“The rates of type 2 diabetes and insulin resistance are significantly greater in the elderly population compared to young adults,91, 92 leading to greater risk for cardiovascular events.”
From Hormonal and Metabolic Changes of Aging and the Influence of Lifestyle Modifications (2021) · cites this paper as [92]
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BackgroundTrends in Insulin Initiation and Treatment Intensification Among Patients with Type 2 Diabetes
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“These estimates are projected to increase with rising obesity rates and an aging population.(3) While treatment algorithms developed by the American Diabetes Association (ADA) and the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) recommend metformin as the initial choice for patients with type 2 diabetes, over…”
BackgroundZafar, T. A., & Kabir, Y. (2016) · Journal of Food Science and Technology · doi:10.1007/s13197-016-2422-6 · Cited by 28
Diagnosis and management of erectile dysfunction in the primary care setting
Rosenberg, M. T. (2007) · International Journal of Clinical Practice · doi:10.1111/j.1742-1241.2007.01418.x · Cited by 26
Zhao, Y. W., Ye, W., Boye, K., Holcombe, J. H., & Swindle, R. W. (2008) · Diabetic Medicine · doi:10.1111/j.1464-5491.2008.02616.x · Cited by 26
Gene therapy for type 1 diabetes
D'Anneo, A., Rood, P., Bottino, R., Balamurugan, A., He, J., & Giannoukakis, N. (2005) · American Journal of Therapeutics · doi:10.1097/01.mjt.0000178774.39149.2d · Cited by 33
Wheatgrass (Triticum aestivum): a miraculous microgreen: an overview
Mishra, N., Tripathi, R., Pandey, D., Shah, K., & Chauhan, N. S. (2024) · Journal of Future Foods · doi:10.1016/j.jfutfo.2024.07.003 · Cited by 25
Extracellular Vesicles-in-Hydrogel (EViH) targeting pathophysiology for tissue repair
Liu, L., Liu, W., Han, Z., Shan, Y., Xie, Y., Wang, J., Qi, H., & Xu, Q. (2024) · Bioactive Materials · doi:10.1016/j.bioactmat.2024.10.017 · Cited by 27
“Diabetes mellitus (DM), a widespread chronic metabolic disease globally, is characterized primarily by a deficiency or reduced efficacy of endogenous insulin [166].”
BackgroundGregg, E. W. (2017) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dci16-0055 · Cited by 26
Social Determinants of Placental Health and Future Disease Risks for Babies
Thornburg, K. L., Boone-Heinonen, J., & Valent, A. M. (2020) · Obstetrics and Gynecology Clinics of North America · doi:10.1016/j.ogc.2019.11.002 · Cited by 25
Nipun, T. S., Khatib, A., Ibrahim, Z., Ahmed, Q. U., Redzwan, I. E., Saiman, M. Z., Supandi, F., Primaharinastiti, R., & El-Seedi, H. R. (2020) · Molecules · doi:10.3390/molecules25245885 · Cited by 25
“Currently, more than 150 million people are suffering from diabetes, and this number is expected to reach 300 million by 2025 [1].”
BackgroundCrum, N. F., Hale, B. R., Bradshaw, D. A., Malone, J. D., Chun, H., Gill, W. M., Norton, D. P., Lewis, C. T., Truett, A. A., Russell, K. L., et al. (2003) · Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC) · Cited by 25
Akeroyd, J. M., Suarez, E. A., Bartali, B., Chiu, G. R., YANG, M. H., Schwartz, A. V., & de Araújo, A. B. (2014) · Journal of Diabetes and its Complications · doi:10.1016/j.jdiacomp.2014.05.007 · Cited by 25
“, 2006) and the number of adults with diagnosed T2DM is predicted to increase from 11 million in 2000 to 29 million in 2050 (Boyle et al., 2001).”
BackgroundYechoor, V. K., & Chan, L. (2010) · Molecular Endocrinology · doi:10.1210/me.2009-0311 · Cited by 26
Diabetes in the elderly and in women: cardiovascular risks
Sowers, J. R. (2004) · Cardiology Clinics · doi:10.1016/j.ccl.2004.06.008 · Cited by 25
Bariatric Surgery, Safety and Type 2 Diabetes
Spanakis, E. K., & Gragnoli, C. (2008) · Obesity Surgery · doi:10.1007/s11695-008-9687-4 · Cited by 25
“Between 2000 to 2050, T2D prevalence will increase by 165% [1].”
BackgroundType 2 diabetes mellitus red zone
Al-Rubeaan, K. A. (2010) · International Journal of Diabetes Mellitus · doi:10.1016/j.ijdm.2009.12.009 · Cited by 25
Kazeminia, M., Salari, N., & Mohammadi, M. (2020) · Journal of Diabetes Research · doi:10.1155/2020/3069867 · Cited by 24
Metadata
- Authors
- Boyle, J. P., Honeycutt, A. A., Narayan, K. M. V., Hoerger, T. J., Geiss, L. S., Chen, H., & Thompson, T. J.
- Affiliations
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
- RTI International (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Diabetes Care
- Publisher
- American Diabetes Association
- Published
- 2001-11-01
- Volume
- 24
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1936-1940
- ISSN
- 0149-5992 (ISSN-L)
- 1935-5548
- OpenAlex
- W2060151575
- Cited by
- 1,004
- References
- 14
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 28 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 30 · 2016: 50 · 2015: 30 · 2014: 46 · 2013: 50 · 2012: 59
- FWCI
- 29.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Diabetes Care (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Diabetes and associated disorders
- Keywords
- diabetes prevalence, population projections, age-specific prevalence, racial and ethnic disparities, older adults, Black men, population growth, diabetes epidemiology, United States
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Black or African American, Child, Demography, Diabetes Mellitus, Ethnicity, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Sex Factors, United States, Prevalence, Cost of Illness, Age Distribution, White People, Racial Groups
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