Cited by 1,004Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and LipoproteinsDiabetes Management and ResearchDiabetes and associated disorders

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Projection of Diabetes Burden Through 2050

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Boyle, James P., Honeycutt, Amanda A., Narayan, K.M. Venkat, Hoerger, Thomas J., Geiss, Linda S., Chen, Hong, Thompson, Theodore J.·2001·Diabetes Care

DOI 10.2337/diacare.24.11.1936

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Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To project the number of people with diagnosed diabetes in the U.S. through 2050, accounting for changing demography and diabetes prevalence rates. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We combined age-, sex-, and race-specific diagnosed diabetes prevalence rates-predicted from 1980-1998 trends in prevalence data from the National Health Interview Survey-with Bureau of Census population demographic projections. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying both prevalence rate and population projections. RESULTS: The number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes is projected to increase 165%, from 11 million in 2000 (prevalence of 4.0%) to 29 million in 2050 (prevalence of 7.2%). The largest percent increase in diagnosed diabetes will be among those aged > or =75 years (+271% in women and +437% in men). The fastest growing ethnic group with diagnosed diabetes is expected to be black males (+363% from 2000-2050), with black females (+217%), white males (+148%), and white females (+107%) following. Of the projected 18 million increase in the number of cases of diabetes in 2050, 37% are due to changes in demographic composition, 27% are due to population growth, and 36% are due to increasing prevalence rates. CONCLUSIONS: If recent trends in diabetes prevalence rates continue linearly over the next 50 years, future changes in the size and demographic characteristics of the U.S. population will lead to dramatic increases in the number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes.

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Dham, D., Roy, B., Gowda, A., Pan, G., Sridhar, A., Zeng, X., Thandavarayan, R. A., & Palaniyandi, S. S. (2020) · Free Radical Research · doi:10.1080/10715762.2020.1866756 · Cited by 67
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Background
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Efficient Cutoff Points for Three Screening Tests for Detecting Undiagnosed Diabetes and Pre-Diabetes
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Background
Metabolomic analysis of rat serum in streptozotocin-induced diabetes and after treatment with oral triethylenetetramine (TETA)
Ugarte, M., Brown, M., Hollywood, K. A., Cooper, G. J. S., Bishop, P. N., & Dunn, W. B. (2012) · Genome Medicine · doi:10.1186/gm334 · Cited by 60
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“With 2200 and 800,000 new cases of daily and annually, respectively, type 2 diabetes is expected to increase by 165% by 2050 (Boyle et al., 2001).”
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“It has been predicted that by 2050, most Americans will be overweight or obese (Wang et al., 2008) and one in three Americans will have type 2 diabetes (T2D) (Boyle et al., 2001).”
Background
Management of coronary artery disease in patients with and without diabetes mellitus. Acute management reasonable but secondary prevention unacceptably poor: a report from the Euro Heart Survey on Diabetes and the heart
Anselmino, M., Bartnik, M., Malmberg, K., Rydén, L., & on behalf of the Euro Heart Survey Investigators (2007) · European Journal of Cardiovascular Prevention & Rehabilitation · doi:10.1097/01.hjr.0000199496.23838.83 · Cited by 56
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BackgroundInfluential
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Jones, L., Crabb, S., Turnbull, D., & Oxlad, M. (2014) · Journal of Health Psychology · doi:10.1177/1359105312473786 · Cited by 61
“Rates of diabetes have been increasing in Australia, Europe and the United States (Boyle et al., 2001), a trend that is set to continue (Wild et al.”
Ion Sensor for the Quantification of Sodium in Sweat Samples
Wujcik, E. K., Blasdel, N. J., Trowbridge, D., & Monty, C. N. (2013) · IEEE Sensors Journal · doi:10.1109/jsen.2013.2257168 · Cited by 56
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“T2DM is largely a disease of obesity and aging (4), and its prevalence is expected to increase in the United States over the next two decades as a result of our overweight and aging population (5,6).”
Background
Diabetes as a Risk Factor for Cognitive Decline in Older Patients
Maggi, S., Limongi, F., Noale, M., Romanato, G., Tonin, P., Rozzini, R., Scafato, E., & Crepaldi, G. (2008) · Dementia and Geriatric Cognitive Disorders · doi:10.1159/000183842 · Cited by 54
“The prevalence of diabetes type 2 increases significantly with age. The greater frequency of this condition in the elderly has aroused increasing attention due to the disabling complications and co-occurrence of other chronic conditions. The serious vascular and neurological complications of diabetes are well known (r…”
Background
Resistance Exercise, Skeletal Muscle FOXO3A, and 85-Year-Old Women
Williamson, D. L., Raue, U., Slivka, D. R., & Trappe, S. W. (2010) · The Journals of Gerontology Series A · doi:10.1093/gerona/glq005 · Cited by 53
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Antidiabetic Activity of Ethanolic Extract of Zaleya decandra in Alloxan-Induced Diabetic Rats
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“This pattern is mainly due to: 1) the increasing prevalence of risk factors for diabetes (obesity and lifestyle changes); 2) demographic changes of the underlying population; and 3) reduced mortality risk of diabetic patients (13).”
Background
Preliminary studies on the hypoglycemic effect of Peganum harmala L. Seeds ethanol extract on normal and streptozotocin induced diabetic rats
Singh, A. B., Chaturvedi, J. P., Narender, T., & Srivastava, A. K. (2008) · Indian Journal of Clinical Biochemistry · doi:10.1007/s12291-008-0086-3 · Cited by 52
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“Total 82 (3) 45 (3) 37 (5) 190 (8) 104 (6) 86 (11)”
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“population), and type 2 diabetes accounts for about 90% to 95% of all diagnosed cases of diabetes [1, 2 ].”
Background
Physical Function and Disability in Older Adults with Diabetes
de Rekeneire, N., & Volpato, S. (2014) · Clinics in Geriatric Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.cger.2014.08.018 · Cited by 54
Status of the Anesthesia Workforce in 2011
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H2RM: A Hybrid Rough Set Reasoning Model for Prediction and Management of Diabetes Mellitus
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Review of the phytochemical, pharmacological and toxicological properties of Alstonia Scholaris Linn. R. Br (Saptaparna)
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Dietary supplementation with long-chain monounsaturated fatty acids attenuates obesity-related metabolic dysfunction and increases expression of PPAR gamma in adipose tissue in type 2 diabetic KK-Ay mice
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“Diabetes is on the rise, with the greatest increase occurring among African Americans.(3,4) Diabetes is a leading cause of many medical complications including nontraumatic amputations, blindness, and end-stage renal disease.”
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Authors: Boyle, J. P., Honeycutt, A. A., Narayan, K. M. V., Hoerger, T. J., Geiss, L. S., Chen, H., & Thompson, T. J.
Affiliations: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
RTI International (US)
ORCID: Honeycutt, Amanda A.
Narayan, K.M. Venkat
Hoerger, Thomas J.
Geiss, Linda S.
Chen, Hong
Thompson, Theodore J.
Venue: Diabetes Care
Publisher: American Diabetes Association
Published: 2001-11-01
Volume: 24
Issue: 11
Pages: 1936-1940
ISSN: 0149-5992 (ISSN-L)
1935-5548
DOI: 10.2337/diacare.24.11.1936
OpenAlex: W2060151575
Cited by: 1,004
References: 14
Citations by year: 2026: 8 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 28 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 30 · 2016: 50 · 2015: 30 · 2014: 46 · 2013: 50 · 2012: 59
FWCI: 29.64
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Locations: Diabetes Care (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Diabetes and associated disorders
Keywords: diabetes prevalence, population projections, age-specific prevalence, racial and ethnic disparities, older adults, Black men, population growth, diabetes epidemiology, United States
MeSH terms: Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Black or African American, Child, Demography, Diabetes Mellitus, Ethnicity, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Sex Factors, United States, Prevalence, Cost of Illness, Age Distribution, White People, Racial Groups

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Projection of Diabetes Burden Through 2050

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